NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 6 JANUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010015-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: January 6, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Dai.Ly~-
Friday
6 January 1984
enuary 25X1
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Top Secret
Contents
Italy-US: Potential Losses of Technology ............................. 8
USSR-US: Moscow Shuns Trade Hearings ............................ 9
USSR-Spain: Soviet Pledge on Nuclear Missiles .................... 10
Morocco: Growing Unrest ........................................................ 10
USSR-US-Lebanon: Protest by Soviets .................................. 1
Jordan: Parliament Recalled .................................................... 2
Suriname: Strikers Defy Bouterse .......................................... 3
Jamaica: Election Prospects .................................................. 4
USSR-South Africa-Angola: Soviet Warnings ...................... 5
Netherlands: Patriot Procurement Developments .................. 6
Special Analysis
USSR: Ocean Research for Strategic Goals .......................... 12
Top Secret
6 January 1984
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Top Secret
USSR-US-LEBANON: Protest by Soviets
stipulated in the 1958 Geneva Convention.
Moscow's private protest against US naval actions in the
Mediterranean reflects its opposition to any infringement on its
freedom of navigation and concern about potential threats to its
credibility in the Arab world.
The Soviet Ambassador in Washington presented an oral
demarche on Tuesday protesting the US declaration that certain
Mediterranean waters adjacent to Lebanon are a zone of hazardous
US naval activities. He also protested the establishment of a special
region for international navigation there. Moscow contends the US
action violates international law and freedom of navigation as
The Soviets warn that the US must bear responsibility for the
consequences of its action. They say the US declaration "cannot fail
to aggravate" an already tense situation in the Middle East. Soviet
media have not mentioned the protest.
Comment: Moscow always has responded vigorously to what it
regards as infringements on its freedom of navigation in international
waters. This protest probably stems from concern that the US action
could set a troublesome precedent.
The Soviets probably are also concerned that a failure to react in
some way to US military actions in the Middle East could jeopardize
Soviet credibility in the Arab world. They have issued a series of high-
level protests since the Israeli-Syrian clashes in 1982. Moscow
eventually may publicize the new warning as a demonstration of its
commitment to oppose "aggressive" US actions.
Top Secret
1 6 January 1984
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Top Secret
King Hussein's decree yesterday calling for a meeting next
Monday of the long-dissolved lower house of parliament may be in
part an effort to encourage PLO chief Arafat to enter peace
negotiations.
The parliament, which was elected in 1967, consisted of 60
members-30 each from the East and West Banks. It was suspended
in 1974 and dissolved indefinitely in 1976, partly because elections
could not be held in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. In addition, the
Arab League decision in Rabat naming the PLO the sole legitimate
representative of Palestinians was interpreted in Jordan as precluding
West Bank representation in parliament.
Only 12 of the West Bank parliamentarians are actually resident
there. According to press reports, seven have already traveled to
Amman for the session on Monda without any interference from the
Israeli Government.
Comment: Public interest in reviving parliament has been
growing over the last few years. Jordanians-East Bankers and
Palestinians alike-have become frustrated by their lack of a voice in
the councils of government. The King has resisted a recall of
parliament for fear of seeming to challenge PLO legitimacy.
Hussein may now believe that the existence of parliament, which
could claim to represent the Palestinians if Arafat fails to reach
agreement with him, might encourage Arafat to make the hard
decisions necessary for entering peace negotiations.
Arafat probably sees no immediate threat to his claim to
represent the West Bankers, who view him as the only independent
Palestinian voice. They are likely to accept the parliamentarians as
their representatives in Middle East negotiations only if Arafat is seen
as failing to seize an opportunity to end the Israeli occupation on
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ToD Secret
SURINAME: Strikers Defy Bouterse
Striking bauxite workers continue to reject Army Commander
Bouterse's demand that they return to their jobs, and the hardliners
appear prepared to remain on strike for weeks.
The US Embassy reports that a large number of workers were
prepared to work but were dissuaded by hardliners, who also
threatened some administrative employees at the plant. According to
the Embassy, the strikers have no recognizable leadership since the
resignation of worker representatives who had been unsuccessful in 25X1
negotiations with the government.
The management of Suralco received a letter from strikers on
Wednesday asking that the plant be closed because their grievances
were not being taken seriously by the government or union leaders.
The strikers warned of "unfortunate consequences" if their request
was not considered, leading a US manager to comment that their 25X1
ttit
d
a
u
e is becoming more dangerous.
The Embassy believes that cabinet changes, including the
removal of Finance Minister Caldeira as aface-saving solution, are
likely. According to the Embassy, however, Caldeira's departure
could prompt resignations by other members of Prime Minister
Alibux's moderate socialist party and lead t~ the raciirr.cnrc ?f ?tie 25X1
pro-Cuban radical party.
Comment: The hardliners among the strikers may not have
enough support to continue the walkout. Many strikers have already
demonstrated a desire to go back to their iohs_ anti thlc won+~.,,e.,+ ;~ 25X1
likely to grow.
Changes in the cabinet will not solve the basic problems that led
to the strike. The regime still needs to impose harsh austerity
measures this year, and opposition among the population toward
Bouterse may become more vocal. If he does change the cabinet, the
pro-Cuban radicals may be in a better position to encour e a
rapprochement with Havana.
Top Secret 25X1
3 6 January yARd
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Top Secret
JAMAICA: Election Prospects
Lack of confidence in the economy and public disapproval of the
call for snap elections on 15 December are likely to cost Prime
Minister Seaga substantial support in local elections this spring.
Voter approval of Seaga's Jamaica Labor Party, which grew
following the Grenada intervention in late October, dropped from
43 percent to 32 percent in a survey conducted in early December
after the opposition People's National Party announced it would
boycott the election. Although only 1 percent of the voters switched to
the opposition party, the uncommitted category rose from 19 percent
of the electorate to 29 percent. Of those interviewed, 59 percent
disapproved of Seaga's call for the early election using outdated
voting lists, and 70 percent favored holding elections as soon as new
lists are ready
The poll indicates that the People's National Party would have
captured at least 49 percent of the vote if it had not boycotted the
election. If new voting lists had been used, the survey indicates that
the youth vote would have helped the opposition win 55 percent of the
Fifty-three percent expressed no confidence in Seaga's recently
announced measures for economic recovery. In an effort to lower
Jamaica's high unemployment and improve the ruling party's
standing in rural areas, the government has proposed an emergency 25X1
'
program of roadbuilding.
Comment: Elections for local offices, which have to be held this
spring and will use the new voting register, will be widely viewed as a
test for Seaga's economic policies. Seaga probably will have to wait
- --- - -? ~ --- -? ? ~~r.?. ... ...v ~~ w~ vuvvan rrVl lu uGl I Ia114 I VI Qlulllll lulll.
The government's ability to finance projects to create jobs,
meanwhile, will be severely restricted by tough spending limits
proposed under a new IMF program. The private sector, already
disillusioned by the government's indecisive financial policies, is likely
to wait until these reforms are Carr' ut before making new 25X1
investments.
Top Secret
4 6 January 1984
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Top Secret
USSR-SOUTH AFRICA-ANGOLA: Soviet Warnings
Soviet public and private warnings to Pretoria against military
action in Angola underscore Moscow's growing support for the regime 25X1
An authoritative TASS statement yesterday accuses South Africa
of trying to overthrow the Angolan Government. Moscow "resolutely
demands" that Pretoria halt its military action and withdraw its troops
from the area in southern Angola that it occupies as a buffer for
Namibia. The statement does not threaten any Soviet action but calls
for international pressure on South Africa.
An unusual private warning to South Africa in November, revealed
by Pretoria on Wednesday, had cited the USSR-Angola treaty of
friendship. The Soviets said Moscow would give Luanda all the
support necessary to protect its territorial integrity. Recent press
commentaries have also claimed that the USSR "will not leave the
Angolan people in their time of trouble."
Comment: These warnings reflect Soviet concern over the
deteriorating security situation in Angola. Moscow and Havana have
significantly expanded deliveries of military aid for the government's
defense against South African attacks and South African-backed
guerrillas. The TASS statement, which was prompted by the recent
South African offensive in southern Angola, probably was authorized
before Pretoria revealed the private Soviet approach.
The Soviets presumably are prepared to expand their military
deliveries further and perhaps to endorse sending additional Cuban
combat troops. Nevertheless, Moscow probably is worried about the
long-term prospects for the Luanda regime and about the increasing
cost of supporting it. The Soviets already fly logistic support in
Angola, but they are unlikely to assume a direct combat role. Cubans
can operate the most advanced Soviet weapons likely to be needed in
Angola.
The recent South African offensive came after the private Soviet
warning in November. Pretoria is unlikely to be intimidated by the
Soviet warning yesterday.
Top Secret
5 anuary 1984
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Top Secret
NETHERLANDS: Patriot Procurement Developments
The State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense is pressing hard for
US concessions on Dutch procurement of the Patriot air defense
system.
Secretary van Houwelingen informally told the US Ambassador
that an agreement on the procurement has to be made by the end of
his visit to the US next week in order to gain budgetary approval and
allow a response to the US manufacturer's offer. Van Houwelingen,
who has the authority to make the final Patriot decision, implied that
the Dutch may cancel or indefinitely defer their purchase if an
agreement is not reached. He also linked an agreement on the Patriot
to future purchases of other US military hardware.
Comment: The Netherlands has already begun dismantling its old
Nike-Hercules air defense system, and the Patriot has to be ordered
soon to prevent gaps in the Dutch sector of NATO's integrated air
defense system. The Dutch are hoping for an arrangement that would
include substantial US Government offsets similar to those provided
in the US-West German air defense agreement signed last month.
Dutch dissatisfaction with the way the "two-way street" has
functioned, following US decisions not to purchase Dutch
minesweepers or aircraft, has probably also added to their harder line
on offsets for this purchase.
The Dutch probably will eventually buy the Patriots, especially
because cancellation of the deal would lead to heavy criticism within
NATO. They will press for a substantial offset package that will
alleviate budget difficulties and assuage domestic and parliamentary
concerns. If an agreement is not reached with van Houwelingen next
week, however, Prime Minister Lubbers probably ,will be ready to
discuss the topic during his visit later this month.
NSA-
Top Secret
6 January 1984
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Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
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ITALY-US: Potential Losses of Technology
A recent agreement between the Olivetti company and a large US
telecommunications firm to buy 25 percent of Olivetti provides the
Italian firm with the European distribution rights to the US company's
advanced telephone systems, software, and microprocessors.
Olivetti's recent investment in other US firms is providing it with early
access to large-scale integrated circuits, vertical magnetic recording
storage disks, linear integrated circuits, optical storage systems,
third-generation di ital communications processors, and other new
technologies
Comment: Olivetti has extensive dealings with the USSR and
other East European countries, and the new agreement could result in
the illegal transfer of advanced US technology. Recently, at a Moscow
trade fair, Olivetti sold to the USSR a US-origin computer-aided
design system for integrated circuit design and manufacture without
obtaining a reexport license. The system was produced by another
US firm with which Olivetti has the sole distributorship in Europe. The
potential for similar losses of advanced technology in the US may
increase as a result of the new a reement between Olivetti and the
large US firm.
Toa Secret
8 anuary 1984
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Top Secret
USSR-US: Moscow Shuns Trade Hearings
Moscow will not participate in the International Trade
Commission hearings scheduled today to examine US allegations that
the USSR illegally entered and disrupted the US ferrosilicon market,
including setting prices below cost. A senior Soviet foreign trade
official recently indicated to US Embassy officials that the USSR
would not attend the hearings, and the Soviets did not come to a
preliminary meeting last month. The official expressed concern that, if
the US position is upheld by the Commission, it would hurt the Soviet
export market. While ferrosilicon exports have not earned substantial
foreign exchange for the USSR, US industry officials say that the
Soviets had planned to increase sales in the US, and they estimate
that their low prices could have enabled them to capture some
15 percent of the US market in just over two years.
Comment: The Soviets probably believe that the inquiry is
politically motivated rather than primarily a commercial measure.
Moscow apparently views the hearings, which follow the recent US
ban on Soviet nickel imports, as designed to restrict the Soviet export
market rather than to protect the US domestic market.
Top Secret
9 anuary
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North
.Atlantic
Ocean
flfladrid :~'
* Torrej6n de Ardoz
Airbase
~ Naval base
o ioa
T?p S@C~et
anuary
}.Zaragoza
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Too Secret
USSR-SPAIN: Soviet Pledge on Nuclear Missiles
A Soviet general who advised the USSR's delegation to the
Geneva INF talks recently told a Spanish newspaper that the USSR
would not target nuclear missiles against Spain as long as it remains
"denuclearized." He said that, in spite of Spain's accession to NATO
and the presence of US bases, the USSR considers Spain a neutral
country and seeks good bilateral relations.
Comment: The USSR has long maintained that it would not target
nuclear missiles against any country not having nuclear weapons, but
it has recently reemphasized that pledge to some NATO countries in
an apparent effort to limit INF deployments. The general's statement
reflects Moscow's reluctant acceptance of the current Spanish
Government's evident desire to remain in NATO and consider future
integration into the military structure. Moscow recognizes that US
nuclear weapons are not deployed or permanently stored in Spain at
this time. The statement appears tacitly to accept the fact that the US
airbases at Zaragoza and Torrejon and the naval base at Rota
periodically handle nuclear-armed aircraft and ships.
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MOROCCO: Growing Unrest
Security forces in Casablanca, Morocco's largest industrial
center, have been put on increased alert because of mountin 25X1
tensions in the oorer sections of the cit .
25X1
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Last Sunday the government
increase the rice of etroleum fuel products by an average of about
10 percent.
Comment: Morocco's poor and unemployed now comprise
25 percent of the available work force nationwide. Criticism of the
austerity program has been limited thus far, however, by the
government's assurances that the burden will be shared equitably. In
addition, the regime has been encouraging the view that Morocco's
economic woes are the result of the Saharan war-a popular,
nationalist cause. Security concerns have been heightened by the
recent riots in Tunisia, and government officials do not want to be
embarrassed by public disorder during the Islamic Conference
Summit in Casablanca_ which begins on 16 January.
Top Secret
io 6 January 1984
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Special Analysis
USSR: Ocean Research for Strategic Goals
Top Secret
The USSR's large commitment to oceanographic research will
result in better ASW capabilities, improved weather forecasts, a more
efficient worldwide fisheries industry, an improved capacity to locate
oil and gas resources, safer maritime transportation, and the
development of a deep sea mining expertise.
The ocean research program has grown from a limited effort in
the late 1950s to the largest in the world. The basic and applied ocean
research carried out by numerous military and civilian organizations
supports a number of the USSR's economic, political, and military
The research is conducted worldwide, but it is usually
concentrated in areas of greatest scientific and strategic interest to
the USSR, such as the Northern Atlantic, Norwegian Sea, and Barents
Sea and the Northwest Pacific-Sea of Okhotsk areas. Recently Soviet
researchers have become active in the Indian Ocean. They also have
studied ocean circulation and temperature off the US East Coast,
often with US cooperation.
The USSR has more than 200 oceanographic ships with about
100 more in fishery research. In contrast, the US has fewer than 60
ships. The Soviet fleet is newer than the US fleet, and some of their
newest ships are better equipped.
In addition, the Soviets have a sizable fleet of deep-diving
submersibles for research and military activities. Five submersibles
were used in attempts to salvage the downed South Korean airliner.
The Soviets have launched five satellites related to oceanography.
The USSR claims that the most recent satellite-COSMOS-1500,
which was launched in September-has an imaging raddr that is used
to map ,icefields and ocean thermal discontinuities.
The satellites permit the study of vast areas of the world oceans.
They help make repeated measurements in a short time. Satellites
can collect data on ocean temperatures, circulation, internal and
surface waves, ice distribution, and biological productivity for use in
ASW research, maritime transportation, weather prediction, and
Top Secret
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Top Secret
Economic and Political Interests
The Soviets conduct ocean research in support of their fishing
fleet-the world's largest-and their offshore oil, gas, and minerals
productions. They are trying to increase their marine food sources by
studying marine life and by searching for new fishing areas and
species of food sources. Recently, the Soviets have increased fishery
research in the Southern Hemisphere, often in cooperation with Third
World nations, to obtain access to new fishing areas.
The USSR has offered to conduct research in the exclusive
economic zone of many Third World countries. The Soviets share the
data, earning good will and receiving political concessions.
The Soviets see great long-term value from ocean research, and
they will continue to improve the technology and methodology of their
ocean research. They have boasted of plans for a network of satellites
and automated instrumented buoys to "monitor the oceans." They
probably will orbit more advanced oceanographic satellites, but such
a network is unlikely for at least 10 years.
Study of the influence of the ocean on weather may bring the
USSR closer to fulfilling its goal of accurate, long-term weather
prediction and weather modification. The Soviets will increase their
chances of controlling oceans resources and strengthening their
military position through improvements in traditional submarine
operations and mine warfare. As in the past, ocean research is likely
to lead to new, unforeseen military techniques.
Top Secret
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~O~ ~@Car~t
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