NIE 63-56: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH AND SOUTH VIETNAM THROUGH MID-1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A008000040011-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: March 7, 1956
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGESICY
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans (OIR)
Colonel H. J. Lemley, Jr., USA
Captain B. E. Wiggin, USN (ONI)
Colonel Willis B. Sawyer, USAF
Colonel Charles H. Dayhuff, Jr.
SUBJECT
7 March 1956
(AC/SI)
(AFOIN-2B2)
1 USA (JIG)
NIE 63-56: Probable Developments in North
and South Vietnam Through Mid-1957
1. The attached terms of reference were agreed on at the
meeting of the IAC representatives on Tuesday, 6 March.
2. All agencies are invited to contribute to any section
within their competence to do so.
3. It is requested that contributions be received in this
office by the close of business on Friday, 11 May 1956.
(2( 6_,f30A-Lfz...q
PAUL A. BOREL
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
Distribution "B"
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCI. AGENCY
7 March 1956
SWECT: MTV OF REFERENCE: NIE 63-56: PROB(BL1' DEVELOPMENTS
IN NORTH ?ND SOUTH VTETN"; THROUGH MI)-1957 *
TW PROBLF7
To analyze the current political economic, and military situation
mid-1957.
in North and South Vietnam and to estimate probable developments through/
I. THE CO NIUN7ST ',)0EITTON IN NORTH AND SOUTH VITINkM
A. Strength and ,Peaknesses of the DRV
1. net changes, if any, have taken place since the pub-
lication of NIE 63.1-55 with respect to the following:
a. Popular attitudes and the effectiveness of DRV controls
in North Vietnam
b. The identity and the respective roles and influence
of DRV leaders
c. ,DRV relations with other Communist countries
* This estimate will super cede NIE 63.1-55 and NIE 63.1-3-55
EECRET
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d. DRV relations with non-Communist countries
e. The DRV attitude toward the Geneva agreements,
in particular the holding of all-Vietnam elections
and the ICC?
2.- What is the economic situation in North Vietnam?
3. What are the present strengths and capabilities of the
military and security forces of the DIN? What
significant trends, if any, have been observed in the
disposition, training, indoctrination, and development
of the armed forces?
B. Strengthe and Weaknesses of the Viet Minh in South Vietnam..
1. What are the strengths and capabilities of the Viet
Minh Political and military farces in South Vietnam?
What is the geographical pattern of Viet Minh strength
and resources in the south?
2. What progress, if any, has the Viet Minh made in South
Vietnam toward infiltrating and subverting the government,
the military and security forces, the non-Communist
political groups, and the sects?
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3. What are present Viet Minh courses of action in South
Vietnam? What preparations, if any, are in progress
for other possible types of action?
C. What changes, if any, are likely in North Vietnam through
mid-1957 with respect to:
1. political developments
2. economic developments
3. military strengths and capabilities
4. the international position and foreign relations of the
DRV, particularly-with respect to the other countries
of Sottheast Asia, France, the F.oviet Union, and
Communist China
political, subversive, and military capabilities in
South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia?
II. THE NON-0012EINIST POSITION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
A. Since the publication of NIE 63.1-3-55 what-sinificant
developments have taken place with respect to the following:
a. Diemts position in South Vietnam, in terms of
popular support, organization of his supporters,
and his acceptance as a nationalist leader.
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b. Organized opposition from the non-Communist
sources. That is the influence and significance
of expatriate anti-Diem groups in France and
elsewhere?
c. The effectiveness of the South Vietnamese
government.
d. The development of government control mechanisms
and their effect on popular attitudes.
e. The establishment of an assembly and adoption of
a constitution. What are the popular attitudes
toward the recent elections? The constitution?
What will be the effect of the Constitution on
the political stability of the country?
B. Security
1. What are the strengths and capabilities of the various
components of the military and security forces?
2. What is the internal security situation in South
Vietnam? .hat is the extent and nature of the
threat Posed at present by the sects and by the Viet
Minh? By what measures and programs and how effectively
is the government dealing with the security threat
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posed by the sects and by the Viet Minh within South
Vietnam? ':,hat is the situation with respect to cooper-
ation between government security- organizations and the
villagers? Has belief in the survival of a non-
Communist state strengthened in the past year? Is the
general populace willing to support openly the present
government in the face of Communist pressures and
propaganda? -hat factors are important in this situation?
3. To what extent are military leaders involved in prlitieal
affairs? To what extent is the military loyal to Diem?
In what manner does the military contribute to Political
stability? To instability? r,hat is the status of
integrated sect military lenders and troops?
C. The Economic Situation
1. what is the present economic situation? 'Mat are the
major economic problems confronting the government?
To what extent is the government aware of these problems
and what programs are planned or have been initiated to
deal with them?
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2. To what extent has the economic situation influenced
political developments? contributed to political
instability? increased the opportunities for Com-
munist D1-itation and subversion?
D. External Relations
1. 7hat is the status of South Vietnam's relations with
the US? That is Diem's attitude toward the US and the
various US programs to assist South Vietnam? Towards
SEATO?
2. That is the status of South Vietnam's relations with
France? That is the extent and nature of French
influence, responsibility and commitments in South
Vietnam?
3. hat Problems exist in South Vietnam's relations with
Cambodia and Lace?
4. Relations with other non-Communist countries?
5. That is the attitude of the Diem government with respect
to the Geneva Agreements? the International Control
Commission? -Uhat is Diem's policy toward the DRV?
unification of Vietnam? all-Vietnam elections?
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III. SOUTH VIFT\TP.V THROUGH tr.D71.957
A. hatare the 'prospects for the development of increased
political stability in South Vietnam?
1. That are the ?respects that Dien will remain as a leader?
That his government will become more effective? That it
will induce .general loyalty to itself as renresenting
Vietnamese nationalist aspirations?
2. That situation would be created if Diem, for whatever
reasoni were removed from power? Tho might succeed him.
That policies might be followed?
3. -hat trends are likely in the political development of
the South Vietnamese? -hat types of Political groups
will develop? That will be their motivations? their
leaders? That policy will the government follow with
respect to political groups and the expression of
political views? To what extent will the military leaders
become involved in political affairs?
L. How will the government deal with its major problems?
In particular haw effective will it be in dealing with the
refugees, agrarian reform, the sects, the Viet Minh and
in extending its authority throughout the country?
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B. 'hat are the prospects for increased effectiveness of the
South Vietnamese military and security forces? That they
can largely eliminate the sect military forces? That they
can seriously disrupt if not destroy the Viet Minh organi-
zation in South Vietnam? Effectiveness against aP,PTession?
C. -hat are the nrespects for economic development?
D.
hat will be the international reactions if no action is taken
with .resect to holding over-all elections in Vietnam?
E. ':,hat courses of action are the Viet Minh likely to follow
in their effort to gain control of South Vietnam? Vhat
successes are they likely to achieve? In what manner will
their actions in South Vietnam affect and be affected by
the situation within North Vietnam and actions with respect
to Lacs and Cambodia?
F. rthat developments are likely in South Vietnamese relations
with the US, the French, and ether non-Communist countries?
nhat will be the likely trends of French Political, military,
and economic influence in South Vietnam? That will be the
future role of the ICC? the 'Geneva powers?
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IV. POST-MRTEY
1. 'Ahat major intelligence deficiencies exist in our
coverage of Vietnam?
2. -hat recommendations have you for meeting these?
VriLIDITY STITTJY
Briefly, what is your assessment of the validity of the
major conclusions of NIT 63.1-55 and NTE 63el-375.5?
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