DECEMBER 1987 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 7, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CTA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
STAT
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM:
NIC 04996-87
7 December 1987
Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: December 1987 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The December 1987 Latin American Warning Meeting will beheld on
Wednesday, 16 December 1987 at 1015 hours in.Room 7E32, CIA
Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should please keep their
representatives to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. The following topics/countries will be discussed:
Nicaragua: Ongoing peace talks have done little to *diminish combat
levels over the past month as fighting remained intense in central and
northern Nicaragua. The insurgents have hit a number of infrastructure
targets and claim to have routed two Sandinista counterinsurgency
battalions. Regime forces have maintained the pursuit, but have failed
in their efforts to encircle rebel forces operating in the northwest.
The Sandinistas also are apparently increasing activity along the
Honduran border. What is the status of the fighting? How long can the
rebels sustain their current operating levels with the supplies on hand
or on order? What is the likelihood of a major Sandinista incursion in
Honduras in coming weeks? (DIA 15 minutes)
Brazil: President Sarney has been under mounting pressures from
across a broad spectrum of Brazilian political and economic elites in
recent weeks. His fragile coalition has unraveled and his presidential
term has been cut from five to four years, despite intense lobbying
efforts. Moreover, Brazilian industrialists have been critical of his
handling of the informatics issue and blame Sarney for souring bilateral
economic relations with the United States. This pressure appears to be
1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
STAT
STAT
61/A1
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
SECRET STAT
taking a toll on the President's mental and physical capacities, and he
is reportedly considering resigning. Does Sarney have the political
strength to cope with the challenges he must deal with in the next few
months? If so, what steps are likely, and if not, how will the
leadership void be filled? Is Sarney likely to step aside? Under what
conditions would the military intervene? What are the implications of
recent developments for bilateral relations with the US? (CIA/ALA
20 minutes)
El Salvador. President Duarte's domestic position--bolstered
recently by his handling of the regional peace talks--is facing renewed
pressure from both the left and the right. Two recently returning rebel
political leaders have refused to meet demands that they disassociate
themselves from the armed insurgents and continue to emphasize
traditional guerrilla demands, including power sharing. Right-wing
hardliners have criticized Duarte for allowing them to reenter
El Salvador, and they are angry over the President's charges that
Roberto D'Aubuisson was the author of the 1980 murder of Archbishop
Romero. Political killings--apparently perpetrated by the right--are
also increasing. Moreover, Duarte's ruling Christian Democrats are badly
divided over government policy,directions. Are the rebel political
leaders likely to break with their armed wing? What is the likelihood of
a major revival of right-wing death squads? Are there any indications of
eroding support for Duarte in the military? How are opposition parties
reacting to recent developments? (CIA/ALA 20 minutes)
Haiti. Tensions remain high in the wake of the aborted elections.
The current military leadership remains committed to holding to the
transition schedule and is moving ahead with plans for another election.
These moves have done little to restore the credibility of regime
leaders--street violence persists and opposition political leaders
continue to call for strikes and demonstrations. Are elections likely to
be held? What are the prospects for widespread violence? Are there any
indications of rifts within the military? Do Namphy and Regala remain
secure in their positions? Will the security forces be willing and able
to contain the unrest? (State/INR 20 minutes)
3. Because we will be discussing four countries, it is essential
that representation be kept to a minimum. To the extent possible,
representatives should plan on attending only during relevant portions of
the meeting.
4. Please have your names, social security numbers and clearances
passed by noon, 15 December 1987. The new
Headquarters Visitor Control Center is now opened at the Route 123
entrance. In order to process all visitors at this entrance, it is
imperative we receive the above inform tion by noon, 15ecember.
STAT
STAT
SECRET STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
R
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020003-2
STAT