AGENDA FOR MAY 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020036-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: May 12, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16 7CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020036-6
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 02355-86
12 May 1986
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for May 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. Due to a prior commitment, the May 1986 Warning Meeting for
Latin America will be held on Wednesday, 21 May 1986, at 1300 hours in
Room 6D49, CIA Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should
please keep their representatives to a necessary minimum because of space
limitations. If not, arbitrary limitations will be placed on attendance.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
Nicaragua, Colombia and Paraguay. Those making their presentations are
asked to keep their comments brief, emphasizing key judgments, warning
issues and collection needs.
Nicaragua
Managua continues to give mixed signals on whether it will sign the
Contadora Treaty by 6 June. Recent statements made in Venezuela by
Nicaragua's Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (Tinoco) indicated that
the Sandinistas' consider 6 June as the deadline for negotiations but not
for signing the Treaty. However, a treaty without strong verification
and democratization provisions could lead to acceptance on the part of
the Sandinistas who would hope to circumvent rigorous inspection and
compliance. Will the Contadora Group present the Central Americans with
a partial treaty in order to gain Nicaragua's signature? Would the
Sandinistas hold out for a formal nonaggression pledge from the United
States? Is Nicaragua likely to reject a treaty even if the provisions
are tough? (State/INR - 30 minutes)
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Colombia
Virgilio Barco's Official Liberal Party took 49% of the 9 March vote
in Colombia's two-stage electoral process. Will the split in the Liberal
Party allow the Conservative candidate, Alvaro Gomez, to pick up votes
from dissident Liberals? Will Colombia's international relations be
significantly different under Barco or Gomez? Both leading contenders
are expected to take a harder line on the guerrilla issue. What is the
likelihood that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will
abandon the political arena and return totally to the armed struggle?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
Paraguay
Public protests erupted in Asuncion in early May, surprising a
government that is unaccustomed to such demonstrations of defiance.
Economic problems and mounting political frustration were factors. The
younger "traditionalists" are apparently trying to wrest control of the
Party from Stroessner's loyalists. What are the chances of the
demonstrations growing and spreading? How unified are the security
forces and can they contain any likely disturbances? How secure is
Stroessner? What would follow Stroessner, if he were removed?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed
with your attendance plans no later than Tuesday, 20 May.
it?64140/
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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