OCTOBER 1987 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 13, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020005-0
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TUgrc-rtor of CentralIntelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 04225-87
13 October 1987
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: October 1987 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The October 1987 Latin American Warning Meeting will be held on
Wednesday, 21 October 1987 at 1015 hours in Room 7E32, CIA Headquarters.
Invited agencies and components should please keep their representatives
to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
Nicaragua
Both sides continue to fight aggressively, despite the
Sandinistas' declared unilateral ceasefire and the likelihood of a cutoff
of US military assistance to the insurgents. What is the Sandinistas'
likely strategy in the coming weeks: Is the ceasefire likely to be
extended and, if so, where; will the Sandinistas use troops withdrawn
from these areas to intensify pressure on rebel units elsewhere? Are
more Sandinista air and ground attacks likely inside Honduras? How
effective are the local peace commissions likely to be in convincing
rebels to accept amnesty? Are there any indications that large numbers
of rebel combatants will accept amnesty? (DIA - 30 minutes)
Suriname
The new constitution has been overwhelmingly approved in a
national referendum, and the stage is set for elections to the National
Assembly in November. The Head of Government Desire Bouterse has stated
he will turn power over to an elected president in early 1988. The three
traditional parties have formed a united front that is widely expected to
win, garnering perhaps as much as 75 percent of the total votes cast.
While the parties are likely to dominate the National Assembly, Bouterse
has considerable residual strength and apparent determination to remain a
key--if not central--actor in national politics. Under what conditions
could the transition process be derailed? Is the new coalition likely to
hold together in the National Assembly? To what extent will there be
agreement on key issues, such as managing the economy and relations with
Bouterse? What will be the impact of the elections on the insprpencv?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
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Haiti
The crisis atmosphere of last summer seems to have dissipated and
the election commission is likely to be ready for local, legislative and
presidential contests scheduled for November. No clear frontrunner for
the presidency has emerged, but several parties and coalitions--including
the Socialists--have named strong candidates. Meanwhile, elements within
the military continue to oppose the transition and some apparently
support the return of deposed dictator Duvalier. What are the relative
strengths of the competing political parties and coalitions? Under what
conditions might the elections be delayed? Will the National Council of
Government step aside regardless of who wins the election? What are the
prospects for a successful coup against the new government by either
pro-Duvalier or other elements in the military? (State/INR - 30 minutes)
4. Please have your names, social security numbers and clearances
passed by noon, 20 October 1987. The new
Headquarters Visitor Control Center is now opened at the Route 123
entrance. In order to process all visitors at this entrance, it is
imperative we receive the above information by no n, 20 October.
Robert D. Vickers,
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020005-0