TERRORISM WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300050013-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2013
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: March 30, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 01402-87
30 March 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Charles-E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Counterterrorism
SUBJECT: Terrorism Warning and Forecast Report
Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 20 March 1987 to
discuss the following issues: the Colonel Hawari Apparatus, counterterrorism
exchanges with Soviet Bloc countries, terrorist threat in Peru, and threats
associated with the trial of the Pan Am 73 hijackers. Attached is my report.
Charles E. Allen
Attachment:
As stated
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Warning Report - Terrorism
1. Colonel Hawari Apparatus
A representative.of CIA/NESA/PG requested the opportunity to present his
views on Colonel Hawari's terrorist organization, which was covered in depth
at the February meeting. He has serious doubts that Iraq had knowledge of
Hawari's terrorist activities against the US, although it may have directed
his activities against Syria. Moreover, in the CIA analyst's view, the
evidence does not permit an assertion that Iraq did not shut down the 15 May
apparatus. Finally, the available evidence permits few categorical statements
about this group.
Other participants agreed it is difficult to assess Iraq's role, but
Hawari clearly has directed six anti-US operations from Baghdad in the period
between fall 1985 and April 1986. There is no Community agreement on whether
Iraq had knowledge of or influence over those activities.
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3. Terrorist Threat in Peru
A CIA/DDI/ALA representative gave an excellent synopsis of the major
terrorist organizations in Peru, and a State/DS officer who recently returned
from assignment in Lima elaborated on the implications for the US.
Sendero Luminoso (SL) was summarized in the following way:
-- approximately 4,000-5,000 members;
-- propagandizing more and recruiting radicals from the United Left;
-- expanding its activities into Cuzco and Puno;
-- no evidence of sustained cooperation between SL and narcotraffickers
nor deep links with M-19, American Battalion, or other terrorist
groups;
-- presents a high threat to government and military officials as well as
to the general populus;
-- presents a high threat to US interests because it does not
discriminate in its targeting.
The Revolutionary Movement Tupac Amaru (MRTA) was synopsized thus:
-- approximately 2,000-3,000 members;
-- moving into the south and north where SL is not strong and may be
creating new cells outside Lima;
-- has conducted greatest number of anti-US attacks; so far against
property, not people;
-- has tried to establish links with M-19.
The Peruvian government has significant deficiencies in dealing with this
threat:
-- military services are oriented to the potential external threat;
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-- lacks an effective crisis management structure to deal with terrorist
events;
-- desires increased counterterrorist assistance.
WARNING NOTES: To embarrass the government, Sendero Luminoso has shown an
increasing propensity to attack foreign interests in Peru when President
Garcia is visiting abroad. Counterterrorism information or tactics given to
the Peruvians is likely to be passed to the Soviets through the military
services.
4. Abu Nidal Threat Resulting from Impending Trials
CIA and FAA representatives discussed Abu
Nidal (AN) hit teams positioning themselves in inaia ana eisewne or
activities when the trial of the Pan Am 73 hijackers begins, probably in
Karachi early in April. It was noted that trials of other Abu Nidal members
are soon to begin in Italy, and possibly in Austria and Malta.
While the threat of retaliatory action in India has received considerable
attention, CIA analysts noted that AN has never before attacked and taken
hostages, prior to a trial of one of its members but rather has a history of
initiating dialogue with governments in attempts to secure their release.
FAA believes the trial will commence in early April, the hijackers will
receive a fair trial, and expeditiously be hung. AN members may seek to
secure release of their associates before or during the trial. US air
carriers serving India have been alerted to the potential AN threat and other
carriers in Asia will be advised. It was agreed that the Intelligence
Community will issue a threat advisory on potential AN terrorist activities in
response to upcoming trials.
5. Narco-terrorism
Because of a congressional mandate to assess the threat posed by
collaboration between terrorists and narcotics traffickers, the NIOs for
Narcotics and Counterterrorism will jointly host a series of ad-hoc meetings
to review intelligence collection and analysis on the topic. The first
meeting is scheduled for 3 April, room 7D32 from 1030-1200.
4
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