NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 14 JULY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010176-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 176
• Publication Date: July 14, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
TopSeeret-
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
14 July 1983
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Copy 2 8 5
14 Jul1993
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Contents
Chad: Government Success at Abeche .................................. 1
Italy: Political Maneuvering ......................................................
Special Analysis
Lebanon-US: President Gemayel's Visit ................................ 10
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Lake
Chad
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14 July 1983
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The capture of Abeche yesterday is the government's first major
success in two months, but the Iona-term advantage remains with the
Libyan-backed dissidents.
Chadian officials say that President Habre is in Abeche and that
government forces north of the town are trying to trap the retreating
dissidents. Libyan-supplied arms and vehicles were captured along
with at least one Libyan radio operator.
Comment: Habre's success at Abeche gives his forces some
much-needed encouragement. Nonetheless, he remains dependent
on French support.
If Mitterrand decides to increase assistance, he probably will send
additional advisers'or order attacks by the eight to 10 Jaguar fighter-
bombers stationed in central Africa. The dissidents' weak air defense
capabilities would not be able to prevent French airstrikes.
France probably still wants to avoid a confrontation with Libya. At
this point, however, direct intervention by Libyan forces appears
unlikely.
Tripoli probably will send more advisers and weapons to the
dissidents. If the dissidents were to disperse and begin guerrilla
operations, France would be drawn into the kind of long and
indecisive involvement it wants to avoid.
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ITALY: Political Maneuvering
minister is gaining momentum.
Formal negotiations on a new government are not likely until next
week, but Socialist leader Craxi's candidacy for the office of prime
The US Embassy believes that President Pertini has already
decided to ask Craxi formally to put together a five-party coalition.
leaders of the small parties.
Craxi plans to negotiate first with the Christian Democrats and
then bring the small parties into the talks. According to the press,
however, Craxi has already begun a series of private discussions with
party could benefit from ceding the premiership to him at this time.
Comment: Craxi's optimism seems justified. A number of
Christian Democratic leaders have openly expressed the view that the
like Craxi to bear the onus for it.
These Christian Democrats believe that allowing Craxi to be
prime minister would permit their party to regroup after its setback in
the election. They remain convinced that the next government will
have to introduce an unpopular austerity program, and they would
Although the odds seem to be in Craxi's favor, his ambitions
could be thwarted again. Republican leader Spadolini has announced
that his party would refuse to join a government that failed to make
fighting inflation its first priority. Such a decision would not preclude a
Socialist-led coalition, but it would reduce the size of the
government's majority and make its hold on power more fragile.
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Iq
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I up aecrei
President Amin Gemayel
Top Secret
Ten months into his 6-year presidential term...
42 years old.:. has activist approach to
affairs of state, involved with details of
policy... pragmatic.
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Special Analysis
LEBANON-US: President Gemayel's Visit
a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.
Top Secret
President Gemayel, who arrives in Washington next Tuesday, will
give first priority to coordinating a Lebanese-US response. to a partial
Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. He will seek US assurances that the
Multinational Force will support Lebanese Army units assigned to
areas vacated by the Israelis. Gemayel also will expect the US to
propose additional diplomatic initiatives aimed at eventually achieving
month.
The Israelis currently are thinning out some of their positions in
Lebanon. Tel Aviv probably will not proceed with a partial withdrawal,
however, until after Prime Minister Begin's visit to the US late this
continue to patrol the area near the checkpoint.
Army, which occupied the position without incident. Israeli units
The Israeli pullback from a checkpoint near Beirut last week
apparently was intended to test the performance of the Lebanese
multinational units in the Shuf.
The Lebanese Government still has not obtained agreement from
the Druze on the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the Shuf
region, where Druze and Christian militias continue to clash
sporadically. Druze leader Walid Junblatt insists on the withdrawal of
Christian militiamen from the area. The leader of the Phalange militia
told a US official this week that his forces will not leave the region but
that he would not oppose the stationing of Lebanese Army or
withdrawal.
Gemayel probably will argue that any indication of US support for
a partial Israeli withdrawal will undermine his government. If Tel Aviv
redeploys its forces within Lebanon, sectarian leaders will accuse the
central government of acquiescing in the permanent partition of
Lebanon. In addition to requesting an expansion of the Multinational
Force, Gemayel almost certainly will ask the US to oppose a partial
Israeli pullback unless it is linked to a timetable for complete
10
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ConcernwAbout US Resolve
Gemayel is increasingly concerned that the US will lose interest in
breaking the stalemate on troop withdrawal. To encourage continued
US involvement, he will threaten to abrogate the Lebanese-Israeli
agreement signed in May.
The Lebanese President also may hint that the Lebanese will ask
the USSR to intervene with Syria if the US cannot establish an
effective dialogue with Damascus. Such suggestions by Gemayel,
however, will be largely tactical. He is intent on maintaining good
relations with the US.
Preparing for Partition
Gemayel may argue that the lack of movement on troop
withdrawal will force him to bow to demands that he consolidate
Christian control over a truncated Lebanese state. Christian militia
leaders claim that the Israelis already have approached them about
working out arrangements for governing southern Lebanon.
If partition of Lebanon were to appear likely, Gemayel probably
would quietly seek to improve ties with the Israelis. He would ask for
their assistance in maintaining control over a Christian Lebanon.
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11 14 July 1983
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