DEVELOPMENTS IN EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 12, 2013
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 5, 1989
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/11/12: CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8
CONFI.91TIAL STAT
5 December 1989
DDI/EURA/EE
STAT
Developments In Eastern Europe.
Eastern Europe is so much in flux that it is becoming a
misnomer to speak of the Soviet Bloc--what we see is a region
increasingly divided by political, ideological, economic, and even
long-dormant national and ethnic quarrels.
In Poland, the non-Communist Mazowiecki (Mazo-VYET-ski)
government has more public support than any Polish regime in four
decades and is moving ahead with an impressive array of economic
and political reforms. The problems it must face, however, make
success uncertain.-
Economic reforms aimed at replacing Poland's failed
command system with a market economy are already
underway. They entail, however, sharp reductions in
subsidies to unprofitable state enterprises--actions-
that will lead to unemployment and higher prices and
likely trigger opposition .from workers and consumers.
The government has begun to cut back censorship,
reduce the security police and ensure the
independence of judges, but Communist Party members
continue to occupy key positions throughout the
bureaucracy and could undercut the reform process.
In Hungary, the former Communist party, now named the
Socialist Party, has virtually collapsed. It rules in name only,
with a government of technocrats led by Premier Nemeth and an
independent-minded National Assembly filling the power vacuum. The
party's best hope in next year's open parliamentary elections is to
emerge as the junior partner in a coalition government.
The chances of its candidate for president, reformer
Imre Pozsgay, have been hurt by the recent referendum
that postponed the election for several months.
The major political conflict is now between two
opposition parties, the Democratic Forum and the Free
Democrats, both of which hope to play the big role in
guiding Hungary's transition to democracy.
Hungary's emergence as a state committed to Western
and nationalist values raises doubts about its
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/11/12: CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8
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continued membership over the longer term in the
Warsaw Pact.
The process of change is transforming Central Europe almost
beyond recognition. East Germany's Communist regime is on the
verge of collapse in the wake of last weekend's resignation of the
entire party leadership and the expulsion from the party and arrest
of many former leaders.
Roundtable talks between the Communists, the
opposition and the Protestant Church are now underway
(since 7 December) and will quickly_focus_on the
issue of free elections; an_agreement will probably
be reached to hold them next Spring.
Even if the Communist party reorganizes itself and
changes its name at its December congress, its
electoral prospects are extremely dim. To capitalize
on his popularity, Premier Hans Modrow probably will
stand as an independent.
The changes in East Germany have increased pressure for
reunification within both Germanys.
STAT
STAT
West German Chancellor Kohl recently proposed a 10
point Confederation program that.has been widely
endorsed in West Germany and has elicited a positive
response from two of the small allied parties and one
opposition group in the GDR.
Over half of the slogans at the most recent Leipzig
demonstration called for reunification, and the main
GDR opposition group New Forum, which has rejected
reunification, is increasingly split over th issue. STAT
As a last resort, the current GDR government probably
will endorse a confederation that also ensures the
GDR's legal existence as a separate state, but it may
be unable to stay ahead of a changing public mood
that apparently is swinging towards a plebiscite on
German unity.
In Czechoslovakia, the party is fragmenting and losing power
rapidly. Hardliners are still clinging to power, but several
reform groups are trying to force leadership and policy changes.
General Secretary Karel Urbanek (Karl 00R-bah-nek)
may move up the date for the extraordinary party
congress now.scheduled for January, when a new
reform-oriented Central Committee could be elected.
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CONFIDENTIAL STAT
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/11/12: CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/11/12: CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8
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The Civic Forum is condemning the recently-announced
government with non-Communist participation, and has
announced plans to field a combined slate of
candidates in free elections likely to take place by
July 1990.
Even Bulgaria has been caught up by the revolutionary changes
sweeping Eastern-Europe.
New party leader-Petur Mladenov (MLAD-e-noff) has
implemented some piecemeal political reforms, and
probably will go further at a Central Committee
session this week_[week_of_11-15 December].
The long subservient Agrarian Party--which held power
in pre-Communist Bulgaria--is openly challenging the
Communist monopoly on power.
In Romania, orthodox party leader Nicolae Ceausescu (Chow-
SHESS-koo), re-elected to a five-year term as General Secretary at
the recent party congress, continues vehemently to reject
Gorbachev-style reforms.
Although odds favor his dying in office--he is 71 and
supported by a powerful and ruthless security
-apparatus--it is possible that the hatred his tyranny
has engendered, his regime's growing infernational
isolation, and the example of popular uprisings
elsewhere in Eastern Europe could eventually spark
his overthrow; this could be violent and occur with
little warning.
Yugoslavia--East European, but not a Bloc member--faces a
severe economic and political crisis. Premier Markovj.c (MAR-koh-
veech) is trying to implement extensive free market reformsr_but
progress is likely to be modest. Debate over the introduction of
greater political pluralism and republican autonomy is heating up
amid rising ethnic tensions.
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/11/12: CIA-RDP91B01306R000500020007-8