CONFERENCE ON DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES AND INSTABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00004R000200100009-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2011
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: June 4, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/20: CIA-RDP90M00004R000200100009-6
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MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM: Director of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Conference on Demographic Pressures and
Instability in Developing Countries
ILLEGIB
1. On behalf of the Office of Global Issues, I would like
to invite you to attend a 2-day conference on the topic of
Demographic Pressures and Instability in Developing Countries.
The discussion is designed to be of value to intelligence
analysts in their efforts to assess the significance of
demographic trends, and to understand the linkages between these
trends and social and political events.
2. The purpose of the conference is outlined more fully in
the attached conference announcement and preliminary agenda. The
conference will take place at the Department of State on
July 7-8, 1987, in the Loy Henderson Auditorium. Access to the
auditorium will be through the C Street entrance where a
conference desk will be set up to receive visitors. If you plan
to attend, please call before
June 23rd, so that your name can be added to the list of
attendees.
Attachments:
As stated
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Central Intelligence Agency
The Office of Global Issues is sponsoring a conference on
the subject of Demographic Pressures and Instability in
Developing Countries on 7-8 July 1987. The conference will take
place at the Department of State so that the audience can include
many desk officers and working diplomats who must deal with the
policy implications of current demographic realities.
The sessions will examine what scholars have to say about
the relationship between demographic pressures and socio-
political events, and under what conditions these pressures are
likely to translate into political or economic instability. They
will also offer country experts and analysts, both government and
private, an opportunity to discuss demographic pressures in
particular countries of primary concern to the United States, and
to review what the governments of those countries are doing, or
not doing, to cope with the demographic circumstances in which
they currently find themselves.
Speakers will cover subjects such as "youth bulge,"
unemployment, rapid urbanization, elite competition, strains on
state revenues and differential growth rates among ethnic groups
within countries. Areas examined will include Brazil, Mexico and
Central America, Nigeria, southern Africa, and selected countries
in the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia. The conference
will conclude with a panel of former senior foreign service
officers and other officials discussing policy implications.
The goals of the conference are a better and more widespread
understanding of the linkages between demographic pressures and
instability, and a new appreciation of what demographically
induced stress means for the policies of affected governments and
the US.
We plan to make time available for questions and discussion,
and welcome your participation. The conference is unclassified,
by invitation only.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/20: CIA-RDP90M00004R000200100009-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/20: CIA-RDP90M00004R000200100009-6
OFFICE OF GLOBAL ISSUES
Conference on
Demographic Pressures and Political Instability
In Developing Countries
TUESDAY, July 7, 1987
8:15 Arrival, coffee
8:45 Welcoming Remarks
Keynote--to be announced
Conference Outline and Purpose
10:20 Historical Perspectives and Present Problems
Jack Goldstone, Northwestern University
The Youth Bulge
Gary Fuller, University of Hawaii
11:15 Discussion
11:45 LUNCH
1:00 Urbanization
Henry Bienen, Princeton University
Ethnic Group Trends
Gary Fuller, University of Hawaii
2:30 Country and Regional Perspectives--
Moderator: Ron Kuipers
The Middle East
Abdel Omran, University of Maryland
Egypt
Del Roy, Hitachi Foundation
Sri Lanka
Howard Wriggins, Columbia University
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WEDNESDAY, July 8, 1987
8:30 AIDS--The Potential Demographic Threat
Barbara Torrey, Center for International Research
AIDS--Destabilization Possibilities
Jack Goldstone, Northwestern University
9:30 Country and Regional Perspectives--
Moderator: Defense Intelligence STAT
College
Nigeria
-Thomas Goliber, The Futures Group
10:50 Latin America
Moderator: Randy Pherson
Brazil
Thomas Merrick, Population Reference Bureau
Lincoln Gordon, Former US Ambassador to Brazil
12:45 Central America
Sergio Diaz Briquetts, Duquesne University
Mexico
Susan Kaufmann-Purcell, Council on
Foreign Relations
Dave Simcox, Center for Immigration Research
2:00
2:15
2:30
Policy issues discussion
Moderator--Marshall Greene, Population Crisis
Committee
Subjects include perceptions of foreign leaders,
immigration issues, assistance issues, and research
issues.
Robert Smith, The Futures Group
Dave Simcox, Center for Immigration Research
Lincoln Gordon, Former US Ambassador
Howard Wriggins, Columbia University
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