CONTRIBUTION TO FUTURE SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE WORKING GROUP PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92B00181R000300280022-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: December 9, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/23: CIA-RDP92B001818000300280022-4
Contribution to Future Signals Intelligence Narking Group Paper
Soviet counterpart.
When Mikhail Gorbachev became General Secretary in 1985, he inherited an
economy that was in the midst of a prolonged growth slump--GNP growth during
1976-85 was the lowest it had been in decades, while growth in industrial
output had also plummeted. Moreover, the low growth in the Soviet Union was
occurring in an economy that did not compare favorably in .size or
technological level with that of the US. Sovi-et GNP in 1985 was only slightly
mare than half that of the US. Even more striking, in terms of per capita
consumption, the average US citizen was about three times as well off as his
campaign to retool Soviet industries with new, more capable machinery.
In laying out his economic program, Gorbachev has focused his efforts
squarely on increasing efficiency. Initially, Gorbachev has relied on a
combination of measures to strengthen party dicipline, improve worker
attitudes and reduce alcohol abuse. Over the longer term, however, Gorbachev
is counting on achieving productivity gains through a series of organizational
changes, reform initiatives, and, most importantly, on extremely ambitious
Because the machinery needed for industrial modernization is produced in
the USSR in the machinery and metal working sector--which is also the primary
source of production of military hardware and consumer durables--Gorbachev`s
plans for refurbishing the country's industrial base involves, of necessity,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/23: CIA-RDP92B001818000300280022-4
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/23: CIA-RDP92B001818000300280022-4
more heated competition for many of the resources involved in the production
o` weapons. Competition is already particularly intense fora whole range of
materials, equipment, and skilled labor--resources traditionally supplied to
the military on a priority basis. Moreover, over the next few years,
competition between the civilian and military sectors promises to increase, as
the defense industries begin to retool for production of the weapons that will
be entering production in the 1990's.
Given this struggle for resources, it is difficult to predict with any
accuracy the outlook fora particular sector such as telecommunications. It
does appear, though, that telecommunications--along with other "high-tech"
sectors such as microelectronics, advanced machine tools, and computer-aided
design and manufacture--will be given high priority in resource allocation
because Gorbachev has singled out these fields as playing a "revolutionary"
role in transforming the civilian economy. The Five-Year Plan for 1986-90
calls for the volume of communications services to increase 26-28 percent, a
figure that would probably be difficult to achieve without a sharp boost in
investment in this sector.
COf~FIDENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/23: CIA-RDP92B001818000300280022-4