AFGHANISTAN/USSR: MAJOR SOVIET MOVE IN OFFING?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160041-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: October 30, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/12 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160041-8
El
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington. D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 03233-88
30 October 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Afghanistan/USSR: Major Soviet Move in Offing?
.1. Attached is a Special Warning Brief on what appears to be new Soviet
military and political initiatives in Afghanistan. Recent statements by
Moscow's Ambassador Vorontsov and Soviet military deployments suggest that
Moscow is likely to press hard for an end to Pakistani and US assistance to
the Mujahidin. Moscow may also be prepared soon to announce a moratorium on
further troop witndrawals unless it perceives a decrease in Mujahidin
Pressures on Afghan Government forces. Moreover, in order to demonstrate that
it is serious, Moscow appears prepared to conduct intensive air attacks to
break Sieges around major population centers, such as Quandahar.
2. This warning brief reflects the views of the National Intelligence
Officer for Warning and has not been coordinated formally within tne National
Intelligence Council.
k
Cnaries E. Allen
Attacnment:
As stated
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160041-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/12 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901160041-8
SECRET
SPECIAL WARNING BRIEF
Afghanistan/USSR: Major Soviet Move in Offing?
The National Intelligence Officer for Warning believes that the Soviets,
in a major shift in tactics, are preparing to launch new military and
political initiatives in the near future. Faced with a steadily deteriorating
situation in Afghanistan, Gorbachev apparently has ended five months of
temporizing and now seems ready to press hard for an end to Pakistani and US
aid to the mujahidin and for a general ceasefire as the essential precondition
for a political solution.
On the military front, the deployment of two spuadrons, of MIG-27 ground
attack aircraft to Shindand airbase and the movement of a regiment of Backfire
bombers foreshadow intensified
and susLiiileo air and ground attacks to break mujahidin sieges of Kabul,
Qandahar?and othgr_lujOr_cOptilation centers. Moscow's new ambassador to
Kabul, Vorontsov, warned that the Soviets will retaliate in full
force if the mujahidin and Pakistan press for a military solution. He .
threatened missile attacks on targets in Pakistan as well as on mujahidin
positions arid said the Soviets may also introduce reinforcements.
Political initiatives apparently will center on renewed pressure for full
compliance with the Geneva Agreements by Pakistan and the United States. The
speech by Afghan Government leader Najibullah on 29 October in which he called
for "an international conference under the aegis of the United Nations"
apparently is part of this Soviet?pressure campaign. The Soviets may intend
to use anticipated rejection of their demands as a pretext for declaring a
moratorium on further troop withdrawals. They may also insist that the
mujahidin accept an open-ended ceasefire ostensibly to fa ili a political
settlement. Ambassador Vorontsov told there will
be no further troop withdrawals unless there is a ceasefire throughout the
Country.
a
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