CIVIL SERVICE 2000

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 97
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 1, 1988
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
,es and Employment
-ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME, BY SOURCE ot,
rAXABLE RETURNS: 1985
Dss was greater than net income. See headnole, fail 4ft.
10,0()0
to
19.999
360.9
292.3
81.0
32.7
5.5
9.7
23.8
1.7
24.1
15.6
15.2
18.0
10.1
12.3
25.1
2.5
$20.000
to
$29,999
399~9
349.5
87.4
25.0
4.7
11.0
18.2
2 5
-1 7
-9.3
15.9
17.3
18.1
13.7
8.5
14.0
19.1
3.5
$30 , DDO
to
$39,999
399.8
359Z
89.9
20 * 6
4.8
9.5
13.7
3.1
-2.3
-9.2
1.4
7.3
8.7
1.3
8.8
2.0
4.5
4.5
S40,000
to
S49,999
269.9
267.1
90.0
16.4
3.6
8.7
9.2
3.1
-1.8
-9A
6.6
12.9
13-9
9.0
6.6
11.1
9 ' 7
4.4
SSO,ODO
to
$99.999
440.0
366.4
83.3
32.4
11 5
22:7
14.4
11.5
- 3 , 2
-15.7
256 t
136 1
r " I
Is i
20.5
41A
24
101
6.8
19.1
19.0
17.8
20.9
28.8
1 5.1
16.4
37.3
177
37
50S
income. -Taxable portion. " Includes neit~.
Iturtory adjustments of $95.1 billion in 198s.
Income Tax Returns, i9s5
INCOME, AND TAXES, 1970 TO 1985, AND By
5
ADJUSTED
GROSS
INCOM
E TAY
Num-
INCOME (
AGI)
SION AND
bar of
STATE
r
,a
turns
Total
Per
I
Tota
)
I!
'000)
(mil. dol.)
CW
da x
(mil.
Cop
(dol.)
dod.)
-
as
Ift
..................
284
6,656
10,701
964
1
s!
..................
2,071
52.205
11,884
7,592
_
1
r,
..................
324
7,678
1 2.324
1239
.
1
91
..................
2,502
59.423
10,421
8:503
.
1 .49
.................
664
13,111
6.769
1,745
90
...............
2,632
52,274
8,348
6,826
I
DS
...............
1,312
25492
7,644
3 2D4
.
96
..................
2,467
53:219
8,907
7:"9
1.24
..................
5,113
110 . 593
9,732
17,310
I.S2
................
1,366
26.245
7,038
3,554
95
.................
1,916
37,621
7,892
5,292
1.11
.................
1,502
29,793
7408
3,957
N
.................
912
15.706
6:008
1,976
7
.................
869
15,672
6,641
2,027
85
.................
1,651
33,776
7,529
4.940
1.10
.................
1,270
26,730
8,085
3,893
1
1
.................
6,674
152,849
9,326
24,966
.
im
.................
336
6,699
6.908
770
93
.................
368
6,778
6,751
869
as
.................
207
4.451
8,727
680
1,33
.................
1,430
32.669
10 1 02
4672
1."
.................
592
11,286
7:778
1:507
1 .(*
.................
1,346
29175
9,137
3,972
124
.................
595
12:528
7.616
1,485
90
..........
447
9 , 921
10,588
1,554
1.65
................
1,905
42.365
9.611
6,151
1.391
.................
1,126
22.582
8,407
2,942
1.09.-
............
11,691
285100
10.816
41,509
1.57!
..........
239
6:709
12,852
1,125
2,15!
471
9966
9,482
1,303
1,24(
501
5:593
INA)
1,090
111^
I as of July 1. 3 Includes additional tax for tax prefer
; with addresses outside the United States.
ig 1987.
Civilian Employment and Payroll-Accessions and Separations 307_1~
No. 494. FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT AND ANNUAL PAYROLL, By BRANCH: 1970 TO 1986
--ment: For fiscal year ending In year shown; see text, section 9. Includes a loyees in U.S. territories and in
F"I countries. Data represent employees in active-duty status. including intermittent employees. Annual employment figures
wow
.. Wages of monthly figures. Excludes Central Intelligence Agen National Security Agency, and as of November 1984, the
b.w,se Intelligence Agency. See also Historical Stalisfics, ColiorvW 7in-ws to 1970, series Y 308-3171
EMPLOYMENT
PAYROLL
Percent I
Executive
Executive
Judi
YEAR
Total I
V-
of U
Judicial
Total
(mil
cial
(11,000)
(1,000)
( 000)
1
.
)
dol
(mil.
dol
)
ployed
.
.
.................
32
928
3.7
-2,891
1,195
30
7
328,562
328,117
11,352
353
92
...........
................
2882
:
3.4
2,834
1.036
37
10
40,699
39.944
14.356
589
166
............
.................
2,875
3.0
2.822
987
40
13
49,921
48,899
16,995
771
251
.......
..............
2,897
2.9
2.844
970
40
13
53,590
52.513
18,065
817
260
...........
...............
-2,987
3.0
42.933
972
40
14
458,012
456,S41
19,234
883
288
..............
...............
2910
2.9
2855
986
40
15
63,792
62,510
21,227
922
360
2:871
2.9
2:816
1,019
39
16
65,503
64,1125
22,226
980
396
...............
2,878
2.9
2823
033
1
39
16
69,878
68.420
23,406
1,013
44E
........
...............
2,935
2.8
2:879
:052
1
40
17
74,537
73.005
25,253
1.081
451
...
...............
1 3,001
1 2.8
2,9"
1,080
39
1 8
80 445
78,1140
28,219
1,097
5OG
...
.............................
1 3,047
21990
1 1 088
38
1 19
82:554 1
1 80.896
29,224
1 1,114
1 64t
Von
too
"et
"112
"03
"RA
05
11111111115
- Postal Service Christmas help. Civilian only. See table 607. 3 Includes 33,000 temporary census workers.
: V'4'k"bd-' 4,975 temporary census workers.
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Monthly Release of Federal GWlian Workforce Stefislics; and unpublished data.
No. 495. FEDERAL CIVILIAN EmPLOYMENT-SUMMARY: 1970 TO 1986
III, thousands. As of Dec. 31. Excludes U.S. Territories and foreign countries, Central Intelligence Agency, National Security
Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Partially estimated]
HARACTERISTIC OF
UNITED STATES
WASHINGTON. DC
C
EMPLOYMENT
1970
1975
1191110
1982 1
1983 1
IW4
1194115
1986
19701
19801
1964
119115
1986
paid employment ........................
2,645
2,741
2,772
2,7331
2,7541
2,824
2,902
2,895
316
3661
352
353
3"
M* ........................................................
1,931
1,896
1,790
1,776
1,680
1,694
1,769
1,765
180
202
190
191
186
Fernale, ............ ......................................
714
845
982
957
1,074
1,130
1,133
1.130
136
164
162
162
158
Full-time .............................................. .
2,516
2,496
2,504
2,482
2,497
2,537
2,589
2,575
308
342
333
335
327
Otis, ... ............................................... i
In
245
268
251
257
287
313
320
8
24
19
18
17
Caff"firtive service 2 ..........................
2,393
1,714
1,692
1,676
1,685
1,698
1,710
1.678
262
258
246
246
239
Temporary I ......................................
112
60
70
67
70
68
82
72
11
11
10
11
9
Eivapted and Senior Executive
Services (SES) 2 4.. .....................
252
1,027
1,080
1.---
v
1,191
1.217
54
107
106
108
105
permanent ........................................
164
863
917
914
926
968
1,015
1
'035
38
70
72
73
73
other ........ ................. .. ....... ..........
88
164
163
1 3
143
158
176
182
16
37
34
35
32
white-collar ~ ...............................
2,113
2,255
2.314
2,289
2,319
2.393
2,289
2,284
278
1334
325
321
313
stue-collar 5 ...........................................
532
486
458
444
435
431
612
611
38
32
27
32
31
I Through June 30, 1983, represents SMSA; thereafter, MSA. 2 In 1971, under Postal Reorganization Act Of 1970, U.S.
Postal Service employees were changed from competitive service to excepted service. 3 Includes "indefinite." 4 Excepted
hm competitive requirements of Civil Service Act. Prior to 1980 SES was not included in total.
6 Through 1982, based on full-time employment; beginning I 9B3, based on total workforce.
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Monthly Release of Federal ChIlian Workforce Statistics; and unpublished data.
No. 496. ACCESSIONS TO AND SEPARATIONS FROM PAID CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT: 1970 TO 1987
Pn thousands, except rate. For fiscal year ending In year shown; see text, section 9. Includes accessions and separations of
part-time and intermittent employees]
Accessions, total .................................
Monthly rate ~ .........................................
Separations, total .......................................
Monthly rate ~ ..................................... _.
Ouh ~ ....... ...... . ............................. ..... ...
727.0
2.2
796.7
2.4
334.4
564.2
1.7
588.9
1.8
212.9
995.2
1,()040
2 ' 9
22
574.0 1692.1
1 7 2.0
521~8 585.6
1.7
1238.6
598.7
1.7
557.5
1.6
208.7
1987,
Oct.-
Feb.
250.1
1.8
217.4
1.5
71.2
94.1
2.3
89.2
2.2
32.9
63.6
1.6
58.8
1.5
24.6
62.4
1.6
57.8
1.5
25.2
57.5
1.4
58.7
1.4
26.2
1987,
Oct.-
Feb.
22.0
1.4
19.7
1.2
79.7
'See footnote 1, table 495. ~ Per 100 employees- 3 Represents voluntary resignations by employees or separatiom by
119ency it employee declines new assignment, abandons position, joins military, or fails to return from military furlough.
Source U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Monthly Release of Federal CMfian Workforce Statistics.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
Total
(1,000)
2,213
2,665
2,659
2,734
2,771
2,862
121
17
7
5
59
10
23
361
156
74
131
319
90
41
104
57
27
172
31
18
67
8
9
15
24
775
5
129
Per-
cent
de-
fense
42.1
37.8
32.2
34.3
34.3
33.8
28.1
58.8
28.6
20.0
20.3
40.0
21.7
28.0
12.8
36.5
41.2
27.3
37.8
36.6
21.2
22.8
11.1
22.7
9.7
5.6
31.3
25.0
11.1
26.7
29.2
35.7
40.0
32.6 1
123.4
131.1
117.4
117.8
117.2
118.7
95.0
144.9
68.2
92.4
101.2
102.6
72.1
96.8
87.8
97.1
110.2
76.4
83.7
74.5
90.0
62.3
56.4
97.9
73.6
63.1
132.3
117.8
127.1
93.9
97.6
189.4
79.0
289.0
For
Sias not Specified -1980, by State-
based on April 1 population; other years based on July 1 resident population. z Preliminary. Includes
ensploy
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Biennial Report of Employment by Geographic Area.
No. 498. PAID FULL-TIME CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, ALL AREAS:
1975 TO 1986
[As of March 31. Excludes employees of Congress and Federal courts, maritime seamen of Dept. Of Commerce, and small numbr
for whom rates were not reported. See text, section 10 for explanation of general schedule and wage system. See ayc.
Histoncal Statistics, Colonial Times to 1970, series Y 318-331)
South Atlantic-Con,
District of Columbia ....................
Virginia .........................................
West Virginia ...............................
North Carolina ............................i
South Caroli
na ............................
Georgia ........................................
East South Central ......................
Kentucky ................................
Alabama Tennessee ...................................
......................................
Mississippi ...................................
West South Central .....................1
Arkansas
.........................
Oklahoma .............
Louisiana ..................................
...... .................................
Texas ...... .............
Mountain ........................................ 1
Montana
....
Idaho ... ...................................
.........................................
Wyoming ......................................
Colorado ......................................
New Mexico ................................1
Arizona
.........................................
Utah .......... ............................
Nevada.-,,,
._.
Washingto
n .................................
Oregon .."
California.'* ............................
.....................................
Alaska ..........................................
Hawaii ................... .......................
Total
(1,000)
206
156
15
45
32
86
101
174
33
58
59
24
272
19
33
48
172 1
187
11
10
6
52
26
36
36
10
445
63
27
314
14
27
Per-
cent
de-
fense
8.3
67.9
13.3
35.6
62.5
46.5
31.7
33.9
42.4
12.1
45.8
45.8
386
26.3
27.3
54.2
37.8
32.6
9.1
10.u
16.7
28.8
38.5
30.6
55.6
20.0
43.1
46.0
11.1
42.7
35.7
77.8
308 Federal Government Finances and Employment
No. 497. PAID CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 1960 TO 1986, AND BY
STATE, 1986
[As of December 31. Excludes members and employees of Congress, Central Intelligence Agency, temporary Ch U.S. Postal Service, and National Security Agency) 7 nstmas tft C- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
A
1960 ................................................
1970 ............................
...............
..
1980 .....................................................
1982 .................................................
1984 .......................................
..........
1986, total z ............................
New England .................................
Maine .........................................
New Hampshi
re .........................
Vermont..-. ..................................
Massachuseris ...
.........................
Rhode Island ...............................
Connecticut .................................
Middle Atlantic
..............................
New York ..............................
.......
New Jersey .................................
Pennsylvania
.............................
,,at North Central ...............
........
Ohio ......................
........................
Indiana .........................................
Illinois .......................................
Michigan ......... ....
.............................
Wisconsin
....................................
West North Central ......................
North Dakota ..............................
South Dakota ..............................
1975
2,575
1,349
528
559
139
1,402
456
536
113
1983 1984
2,499 2,520
1,393
430
547
129
1,407
420
561
132
Total .............................
Wage syste
m ............................
Postal pay system ' .................
Other..
........................................
Source: Except as noted, U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Pay Structure of the Federal Civil Service and
No. 499. FEDERAL GENERAL SCHEDULE EMPLOYEE PAY INCREASES: 1965 TO 1987
[Percent change from prior year shown, except 1965, change from 1964. Represents legislated
data based on range; for details see sources pay increases. For some years
Average
increase
3.6
2.9
4.5
4.9
9.1
6.0
6.0
5.5
Oct. 1, 1972 ................................
Oct. 1, 1973 ................................
Oct. 1, 1974 ................................
Oct. 1 1975 ................................
Oct 1 1976
.,.
............. ........ ........
Oct. 1, 1977 ......................... .....
Oct. 1. 1978 ................................
Oct. 1, 1979 .................................
Average
increase
Oct. 1, 1980 ................................
Oct. 1, 1981 ................................
Oct. 1, 1982 ................................
Jan. 1, 1984
Jan................................
. 1 , 1 985 ..............................
Jan. 1. 1986 .......................
...
Jan. 1. 1987 .......................................
.
Oct. 1, 1965 ................................
July 1. 1966 ................................
July 1. 1969 ..............................
Dec. 27, 1969..'*
.........................
Jan. 1. 1971 ................................
Represents zero.
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, Pay Structure of the Federal Civil Service, annual.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
14?:
103
14
1342
90!
1te~
156-
in;
ice.
-
216,
1031
141
100
1164
251
.2
.2
M
Ju
La
St
Tn
Tn
kld
En n
Ne
Ot
Re
Sn
Te
Ve
-J
NA
shown
Educat
1977.
For
1985
1986
1975
2,590
2,616
13,529
17,758
1,450
418
1,462
409
14,483
11
197
17,299
17
644
24,178
25,282
26,186
26,274
586
136
606
139
,
13,242
13
951
,
20,076
20
344
21,500
24,612
22,393
25,504
23,288
26,559
23,837
26,744
,
,
31,544
33,453
34,413
34,814
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
I
ces and Employment
)ERAL GOVERNMENT 1960 TO 1986, AND BY
986
Central Intelligence Agency, temporary Christmas
onal Security Agency) help of
)44th Atlantic-Con
District of Columbia ....................
Virginia .........................................
West Virginia ...............................
North Carolina ............................
South Carolina ............................
xeOrggie ........................................
at South Central ......................
250 employees) government offices,,
including Federal, state, and local governments, actually sponsor child
care centers for workers' children. Only 3 percent of large private com-
panies do so. Governments were also much more likely to offer refer-
ral services and information about child care availability; only the lar-
gest private companies matched the government in providing this
benefit.
Many Federal agencies pursue policies that help the parents of these
children indirectly. For example, liberal use of annual leave for family
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10 :
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10 :
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46
matters allows employees to stay home with sick children or take time
off for other reasons. Flextime allows many parents to arrange their
work schedules to agree with those of their child care providers, or
for parents themselves to share this responsibility.
Another approach adopted by some Federal agencies involves estab-
lishing a referral service that helps employees find child care that
meets their specifications. The Social Security Administration has
established a nationwide (800) number that provides child care refer-
rals and counseling. The agency has found that 90 percent of
employees who use this service are satisfied with it, and notes that
the number of calls is increasing.
In some agencies support for child care goes further, including
direct child care assistance in various forms. These include a num-
ber of child care centers in Federal buildings. Many of these centers
have long waiting lists, suggesting that substantial numbers of
employees at these sites are eager to participate in on-site child care
programs.. (One news story even reported that parents sometimes
enroll their children in such centers before they are born.) The General
Services Administration actively supports agencies wishing to estab-
lish on-site child care facilities with the program "GSA-Your Partner
In Child Care" through the Office of Child Care and Development Pro-
grams. Under a law similar to the Federal Credit Union Act, the GSA
may allot space in government buildings to child care centers without
charging for rent or services. The program helps Federal agencies to
design, establish, and start up such centers. In addition to providing
space, the GSA will also help to determine how large a center is
required and will provide advice, technical assistance, resource
materials, and consultation. The center, usually run by a non-profit
group organized specifically for the purpose, repays the GSA for non-
space costs in monthly increments. Startup costs for a typical 50-child
center require between $150,000 and $200,000. Tuition costs were esti-
mated by the GAO at between $4,000 and $6,000 per child. (It should
be noted that these centers are typically more expensive because they
are developmental facilities providing top quality pre-school educa-
tion by licensed practitioners.)
Many agencies have accepted GSA assistance and established day
care facilities on-site. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has three
centers, two in Bethesda and one in Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina. According to NIH officials, parents are enthusiastic about
these services, believing that their children get superior care and that
it is easier to juggle work responsibilities and the numerous small
emergencies that accompany parenthood with an on-site program.
FEDERAL CHILD CARE NEEDS NOW AND IN
THE YEAR 2000
The Federal government is highly diverse from agency to agency,
and the needs of each agency for child care are increasingly divergent.
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10 :
CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4 `t/
Agencies such as the SSA, which has a relatively older workforce and
many clerical employees may have quite different populations and
child care requirements compared to those of the IRS or the Veteran's
Administration, where high turnover of younger employees and
anticipated increases in hiring may increase child care demands in
coming years.
To the extent that broad generalizations about Federal child care
needs can be made, two points stand out:
? A larger proportion of the Federal workforce will be women in
the year 2000 than today. Many of those who will be hired will
be in their childbearing years and employed in relatively low-wage
jobs. In 1987, for example, two-thirds of all the full-time permanent
hires made by the Federal government were under the age of 40
and under the rank of GS 8 (Annual starting salary: $20,739).
? On the other hand, more than half of the existing Federal
workforce is older than age 41, and the largest age cohorts of
Federal workers are those born between 1947 and 1952. Many
of these middle-aged workers will remain with the government
until after the year 2000. As a result of this "graying," the child
care needs of existing workers may already have peaked.
These generalizations mask great differences in the evolving
situations of different agencies. Different demographic patterns,
differences in local labor markets, and different missions affect each
agency's child care needs and possibilities. A small sample of agencies
in the Washington D.C. and Maryland areas illustrates some of these
differences:
THE SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION
The Social Security Administration in Woodlawn, Maryland is one
example of a shrinking agency. While computerization has increased
efficiency, it has decreased the number of employees needed to
perform SSA tasks. Thus, primarily through attrition, the SSA staff
is growing smaller and older. Although 65 percent of the workforce
is female, most of these women are past their peak childbearing years.
Only 8 percent of the population is under 30 years old. (Nationally
two thirds of all children are born to women under age 30). By far
the greatest cohort is between 30 and 44 years of age (58 percent of
the workers); 30 percent are between 45 and 59 years old and 4 percent
are over 60. These older employees will have a relatively low needs
for child care, and these needs are likely to decrease for the balance
of the century as the workforce shrinks further and the average age
of SSA workers climbs to a projected 44 years.
The Social Security Administration provides a telephone referral
service to assist its employees in finding responsible care for their
children. According to the agency, this service has proved an effective
way of matching employees with caregivers.
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY
Much different conditions prevail at the National Security Agency
in Fort Meade, Maryland. There, in a workforce that is 37 percent
female, the median age of the women is 27. Most of these women are
college graduates in their peak childbearing years. In addition, the
NSA staff includes a number of single parents, a significant proportion
of whom are men. Since the retirement age at NSA is 55 and the
attrition rate for other reasons is relatively high, the youthful nature
of its workforce will likely persist. An additional special problem faced
by the NSA is that it is a 24-hour facility. Shift workers there need
not only child care but "night care," including weekends.
Although there is an active child care referral service, this alone
does not meet the special needs of NSA employees. According to
Agency personnel officials, there is a strong perceived need for on-
site or nearby child care facilities. But since the agency does not use
space administered by GSA, it is not eligible for GSA assistance, and
has experienced difficulties in acquiring funding to establish a facility.
Although there is a military child care center on the Fort Meade
grounds, it does not have enough room to handle even a fraction of
the estimated 2,500 NSA children who need child care.
While the trend of future NSA employment cannot be accurately
estimated, it is likely that the large numbers of young, professional
women at the Agency will rise, and that the numbers of children
needing care will also increase. Thus, the child care needs of the staff
at the NSA are currently a major concern, are not being fully met,
and are likely to grow larger over the next decade.
THE NAVAL ACADEMY .
The Naval Academy, in contrast to some other agencies, has an
unusually broad mix of employees. The Academy's 1,990 civilians
include a range of occupations from college professors to computer
professionals to blue-collar maintenance workers. A recent child care
needs assessment indentified 381 pre-school children and 370 school-
aged children who needed child care; while there is an on-site care
facility in the Naval Academy Primary School, this is accessible to
civilians only on a space-available basis, and has room for only 3 or
4 of the Academy's civilian children. There is a strong perceived need
for more on-site child care, which according to personnel officials
would help to draw and keep employees at the facility.
Because its demographics closely resemble those of the United States
workforce as a whole, child care needs at the Naval Academy will
probably remain relatively constant through the year 2000, or decline
slightly as the numbers of young women of childbearing age shrinks.
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NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH
The National Institutes of Health in Bethesda currently supports
two child care centers. One has a capacity of 65 children and has a
waiting list, while the other is currently full to its capacity of 33.
One of the NIH centers was developed in 1973 as the result of a
grass-roots effort by NIH staff and parents as a non-profit program
for NIH children. This is one of the longest continually-running on-
site child care centers in the Federal government; it charges fees on
a sliding scale and receives some outside funding from a private
foundation. The other center opened in 1987, when NIH granted
permission to Childkind Incorporated to use government property for
a child care center. This facility is non-government, and is operated
and controlled by a parent's cooperative. There is also an after-school
program for school-age children near the NIH campus that is not
directly affiliated with NIH. These children are bussed to the after-
school center on the public school bus system.
NIH continues to hire many young workers, including numerous
visiting scientists and non-tenured employees who place demands on
the child care system. More than 58 percent of the NIH permanent
employees are women.
Because NIH researchers are at the center of national efforts to
conquer the AIDS virus, as well as presiding over growing efforts
against other diseases, the numbers of NIH personnel are almost
certain to increase substantially during the 1990s. Many of these new
employees will be young professional women in their early
childbearing years. As a result, it can be anticipated that child care
needs at the Institutes will grow substantially during the 1990s. In
light of the intense competition that NIH faces for talented research
professionals, better child care facilities might be of significant
assistance to Institute managers seeking to recruit and retain the best
employees.
THE VETERANS ADMINISTRATION
As of the end of 1987, the Veterans Administration had 18 child
care centers accommodating approximately 700 children, with 9 more
in the process of opening..Only a few VA offices are covered under
the GSA program. At the VA medical centers, congressional funding
for child care was not unavailable, so facilities there have been started
in response to grass-roots organizational efforts. There is evidence
that providing child care helps the VA to retain health care
professionals.
For the future, although only 26 percent of the total Veterans
Administration staff is under 35, 65 percent of these younger
employees are females in their peak childbearing years. This means
that the VA's child care needs will remain large and possibly will
increase. The new centers being organized now will be required to
meet future needs. Provision of adequate child care will be particularly
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important if this benefit is found to affect the job performance and
longevity in service of qualified health care staff, particularly nurses.
FUTURE FEDERAL CHILD CARE POLICIES
How should federal child care policies evolve in the years ahead?
Three questions will be most important:
? How much on-site care should the Federal government try to
provide?
Clearly, it would be prohibitively expensive for the Federal
government to provide on-site care for all children of Federal
employees. At present there are 12 GSA centers, with space for fewer
than 1,000 children. If a third of the estimated numbers of children
of federal employees under age 5 (eg., approximately 230,000 children)
were provided on-site care at an average cost of $4,500 per child per
year, the annual cost would exceed $1 billion.
Moreover, if these costs are partly paid for with Federal funds rather
than with parents' tuition, there are fundamental issues of fairness
raised by such an expensive benefit. Obviously not all employees, or
even all parents can, or want to, take advantage of on-site care. On-
site child care is only of benefit to employees with children under five,
who choose that particular option. Others, with children in school
requiring after school supervision, or those needing other types of care
would receive no benefit from expensive on-site facilities.
Still, on-site care seems to be enormously popular with Federal
employees where it has been tried. Every worksite child care center
discussed in this report is running at full capacity, some with lengthy
waiting lists. The NIH pre-school development program, for example,
accommodates only 65 children, with 30 more waiting to get in.
Parents like having the centers near to their workplace, since it allows
them to share time with their children on the way to work, and during
lunch hours, and also allows them to be accessible in an emergency.
It also allows parents to reassure themselves as to the quality and
competence of the care being provided, and to monitor their children
to a greater degree during the day. In some cases, Federal personnel
managers report that the availability of on-site care is such an attractive
benefit that it provides a strong disincentive to change jobs.
One approach to this difficult issue it to continue to encourage the
development of privately operated and funded child care centers,
organized and supervised by parents and care providers: a grass-roots
approach. Federal agencies already encourage grass-roots formation
of child care centers; they should continue to encourage individual
agencies to assess their child care needs, and provide assistance to
child care groups at all Federal sites, not just those covered by the GSA.
Start-up costs for a child care center include not only providing
space and equipment that meets legal safety standards, but also
insurance, which can be prohibitively expensive. In addition,
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programs that emphasize child development (which seem to be
preferred at many Federal facilities) require the use of more highly
trained, higher-paid staff, further increasing costs. Federal policies
could address these cost problems by encouraging reasonably-priced
insurance, and by providing structures so that centers could offer child
care on a sliding scale (such as the policy pursued at one of the NIH
centers). Some financial contribution toward establishing and
maintaining centers would help to ensure that all Federal employees
could afford to use them.
? What other child care assistance options might be offered?
There are, of course, many ways for Federal agencies to assist
employees with their child care needs, without initiating an on-site
center. Many agencies offer a child care clearinghouse, which offers
parents information about local child care options. In some cases this
is in addition to on-site care; in others it is the only assistance available
to employees.
Several Federal agencies now provide referral services for
employees, with listings of private child care centers and providers
that are updated frequently. In addition, a referral service leaves the
responsibility of locating suitable child care on the parents, who can
call and visit all possible sources of care before choosing one.
Consequently, employee enthusiasm for such referral services is high,
and this option provides assistance to those employees who need it
at a reasonable cost. Such referral services could also provide other
information, such as senior care facilities, if employee interest
warrants it.
After school programs may also be worth implementing in some
cases. Older children are in school for most of the day, and then
require supervision between the end of the school day and the time
the parent gets home. For some two-career couples, flexible schedul-
ing and part-time work allow one parent to take care of the before
school care, while the other comes home early after school. But sin-
gle parents still require some sort of after school assistance. One exam-
ple of after-school care is provided by NIH; children are bussed by
the school system to a private, independent after-school center near
the NIH campus.
A system of vouchers would enable an employer to offer child care
benefits without setting up an on-site center, and would distribute the
benefit more equitably among employees with children of all ages.
It would be relatively simple to implement, and inexpensive relative
to the start-up costs for an on-site center. While such approaches may
be justifiable in some cases, they would obviously be expensive, and
would raise similar issues of equity as are present with on-site.facili-
ties, since not all Federal employees have children. Where such pro-
grams are considered, theyshould probably be undertaken in the con-
text of the implementation of cafeteria benefit programs. Employees
desiring expensive subsidies for child care would be asked to offset
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these benefit costs with reductions in other federal benefits, for exam-
ple, with reduced retirement contributions.
? What principles should guide Federal child care policy?
In light of the importance that many employees attach to child care
benefits, and the evidence that child care can help some agencies to
recruit and retain talented workers, what general guidelines should
be established for Federal child care policies?
First, no single solution should be applied to all agencies.
Child care needs in the Federal workforce vary greatly from agency
to agency and from site to site. Some sites have youthful workers with
numerous small children; others are staffed by middle-aged workers
concerned more over college tuition costs than child care costs. Thus,
although some sites find a strong need for on-site care of employees'
children, others will have little or no call for such care. Application
of a blanket policy to all Federal sites is clearly inappropriate.
Providing an employee hotline to answer child care questions
remains the fairest, most broadly applicable solution to Federal
workers' child care problems. While grass-roots establishment of child
care centers should be encouraged, the need for such centers varies
too widely to warrant a Government-wide initiative to establish them.
Second, child care policies should not lose sight of equity
considerations or budgetary realities.
The Federal government will continue to respond to the desires of
its employees and their personnel managers for more assistance in
finding and paying for high quality child care. But in undertaking new
initiatives to support child care, it will be important not to overlook
broad benefit policy considerations. Child care benefits are of no value
to the majority of Federal employees. If some are to receive significant
subsidies, while others do not, either parents with young children
should be asked to trade-off other benefits (eg., under cafeteria plan
ceilings) or there should be explicit recognition that the Federal
government as an employer wishes to help parents of young children
more than other employees.
Equally importantly, child care benefits are one form of
compensation among others, and they should be held to the same
standards of budgetary soundness as salaries, retirement benefits and
health care subsidies. In some cases, child care may be a cost-effective
way of recruiting, compensating and retaining good employees. In
other circumstances, this benefit may be of little value in furthering
agency personnel goals. Agencies themselves are likely to be the best
judges of the value of child care assistance programs, taking into
consideration their varying demographic, occupational and labor
market circumstances.
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` Civil Service 2000 Press Conference
Date: September 27, 1988
Participants: Rob McCord, Exec Dir of Congr Clearinghouse of the
Future; Constance Horner, Director, OPM: Congressmen Steny Hoyer,
(D-MD) and Thomas J. Tauke (R-Iowa); Senator Barbara Mikulski
(D-MD); and William Johnston, Hudson Inst.
Report gives an analysis and navigational chart for what federal
workforce needs will be. Wasn't just what employees or Congress
wanted, but is what an independent group thinks. She had them look
at Naval Academy, NIH and in Maryland; thinks these
represent range of federal civilian workforces. Focus on day care
policy -- now ad hoc. GSA prime mover in this area.
"We should all be concerned about the future because we have to
spend the rest of our lives there." Charles Kettering
"Pursue those things in the present and leave the future to divine
providence." Francis Bacon.
OPM doesn't want to leave to providence; wants to approach
systematically. Must be changes in personnel policy -- general
agreement on drift. Simplify, deregulate and decentralize. Federal
government not a monolith.
Need to give agencies and mangers authority to solve problems
peculiar to them, their mission and their place. i.e. day care and
night care. Don't want a legislative mandate with a single approach
to dependent care. Need advice from a central point, perhaps
resources and support.
One area where she differs from report, at least in emphasis. True
that the federal workforce differs around the country, but all do
one thing -- serve the public. Brings special character and
responsibility. Different missions, but all one in carrying out the
democratically expressed will of the American people. Operate
differently, but unity of purpose and philosophy.
(During good-natured ribbing from Sen Mikulski, said she would have
asked for study even if Congress hadn't put in the OPM appropriation.
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Steny Hoyer
Has some agreement with the report in many areas, doesn't think it
goes as far as it should in other areas, but believes it's a useful,
needed document. Referred to Paul Volcker and Natl Commission on
the Public Service, and the article in todays's Federal Page.
Tribute to Horner that she reduced the level of confrontation and
increased the level of discussion on the substance of ways and means
to improve the status of the federal workforce. Gives opportunity
to discuss. (Devine was the best press agent Hoyer ever had.)
p. 29 of report. Crisis of competence. This is what the next
president faces. Shrinking workforce, and federal government in a
position t compete poorly in terms of pay and benefits become less
attractive to the private sector.
As problems are more comples and U.S. problems become more
interrelated with those of other countries, it's important to bring
to Congress' and president's and public's attention. Report
contradicts news reports that public workers are "on the dole."
"Every person [political appointee] I've asked to compare private
and public sector employees have said that the public sector
workforce measures up -- they are talented and motivated."
Hudson says may be rapidly losing ground as the workforce ages,
FERS gives workforce portability, and the federal government becomes
less competitive vis a vis pay and benefits with the private sector.
Both candidates for president need to read this report. So
that when one of them assumes head of federal government he doesn't
do as the last two incumbents did and let the American public
believe they didn't have competent, effective and valuable employees
in the public service. Reagan's theme of bloated bureaucracy led
him to proposes that federal pay be reduced. This didn't happen,
but he did succeed in a pay freeze for one. The private sector
didn't have one, so that set pay even further behind. (Quoted
report stats)
There's no free lunch. To avoid a crisis of competence the
government must pay salaries commensurate with the talent it wants
to hire. Also, do this in the context of federal workers being held
to private sector performance standards. That's the thrust of the
report.
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cj
Tom Tauke (R-Iowa, 2nd)
Government is a concerned partner with federal employees.
Question no one is asking is how will OPM find the funds for the
things cited in the report. This needs to be faced honestly.
People ask why he, as a member of Congress from a farm
constituency, is concerned with the federal workforce. He only has
3,000 federal employees in his district. Because every day, his
constituents depend on the performance of federal employees. The
call the Agric Soil Conserv. Service with questions about corn
blight (?) because of the drought. SCS people are working 16 and 17
hours a day some days to learn all their new responsibilities
associated with the new drought legislation. They are dedicated in
their jobs. But the federal government needs to rely on more than
their dedication. The federal government needs to meet the
challenge of this report. [Civil Service 2000]. This will lead to
actions to continue/enhance the federal workforce as a vital,
productive one.
Bill Johnston, Hudson Institute
Need to focus on the diversity of the workforce in terms of
talents needed and location. Labor markets vary by geography. In
some areas, the federal jobs are the jobs of choice. Not so in
other areas, with more private sector competition.
[Gave a slide show highlighting key points of report. Not all
referred to here.]
Five Demographics Reshaping the Federal Workforce
Birth dearth
Middle aging
Feminization of work
Shift to the south and west
Changing complexion of new workers
Median age of federal workforce is roughly 42. Rest of the
workforce is 35 or 36. The federal workforce will age more in the
coming years. Used to be a modal distribution -- lots of new
entrants and the post-WWII folks getting ready to retire. Now one
group. Will stabilize and age. Younger workforce can be more
willing to change.
The low self esteem of current workers and the fact that
[bureaucrat bashing] has been intense and will thus keep talent away
-- will not change overnight, despite best efforts of some now.
Will require long-term efforts.
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Other disincentives. "Needless aggravations" of management
systems. The way people are managed is not up to some of the
standards in the private sector -- no participatory management, lots
of ways private sector treats their people well. In federal
service, you have to wonder if your phone calls are monitored to see
if you're using phones inappropriately. Insulting.
FERS -- those with the least reason to stay may be those you
most want to keep. FERS will release golden handcuffs.
Messages: 1) Decentralize authority and responsibility for
operations and hiring. If you have personnel policies that blanket
all agencies, will miss some problems. Need more flexibility in an
array of things. Why have a 171? No reason to have to force all
job seekers into a regimented format with no relation to most jobs.
Easier to sell organizational concepts, such as the Park
Service, State Department than general concept of "come be a federal
civil servant." The agencies that are out there recruiting this way
are the ones that are really selling themselves. For example, the
Army says "be all that you can be" -- they hav changed the
perception young people have about the service in general and the
Army specifically. Now chosen over Navy and Air Force. True,
requires good advertising budget. Give the agencies the flexibility
and the funds to sell themselves. Let them hire their own kinds of
people.
2) Emphasize hiring and training and promotion possibilities
for women and minorities. Federal government is well perceived
among these groups. Private sector hasn't been (hasn't earned it)
and will have to work harder to convince women and minorities to
work for them. Federal government should capitalize on its
reputation. Need to build on good reputation. Show people have
opportunities. To keep the federal govt at the leading edge for
these and all potential recruits, need to match the benefits offered
with what the new workforce needs.
3) Federal govt must substantially increase internal and
external training. Technology is changing. To retain the workforce
is to offer to retrain it. Need to invest more in people -- new
hires and on board. At the entry level, will hire more people with
inadequate skills for low level jobs. Need to turn poor school
performers into productive workers. Also, high skill folks
(scientists, engineers, computer specialists) are those whose skills
are most transferable to the private sector. Need to make talent
from among current workforce because feds may not be as able to
afford to buy it. Can't just contract it all out:: Plus, need to
have federal staff who are at least as skilled as the contractors
they monitor.
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4) Need to upgrade federal pay and make benefits packages more
flexible and at the same time demand performance. Private sector
have gone to more cafeteria style benefits. True that existing
legislation is makes it complicated for feds to move in this
direction. Plus, some other moves have not been as successful as
they would have liked (Fedl Health Benefits Prog). However, it is
most cost effective to offer an array of benefits. Can't just add
on more benefits, the same for everyone. With flexible benefits,
can provide the things that are the most valuable to individual
employees at a cost that is more affordable to the federal
government.
Questions and Answers
AFGE rep: Unions consulted?
Johnston: No one outside federal circles consulted.
Judy Havener, Post: In advocating flexibility, does Johnston
believe this can lead to things such as no pay caps?
Johnston: Not political. However, his choice would be to err on
the side of as much flexibility as politically feasible. Can't see
a reason for Washington to set pay rates. Let people doing the
hiring on site set them -- they know what they need to pay to get
good people. Point is a difference in assumption. Today, it's
flexibility by exception. His point is flexibility should be the
basic assumption.
Am Vets rep: Disable people are minorities, too. Role for them in
federal hiring?
Johnston: Employers are hungry for talent, and a lot rests in
disable people. Especially as it gets harder to hire in the federal
government, people will look for new sources and will more likely
better recognize the talents of people who are disable.
McCord: Where will the money come from to do all of this?
Johnston: Give people a mission and flexibility in how they manage
their budgets and they can still manage to budgets. But it's
flexibility in hiring that makes for efficiency. A proven array of
benefits and managing to budget instead of ceiling can keep costs
low while still providing better training, letting managers pay what
what they need to where they need it. Flexible systems permit
trade-offs. That's the key.
Horner: Bingman bill important. Can do what they're talking about
here in a way that provides better public services and is cost
effective. Upgrade quality of federal staff (give more training)
and then demand more of them. In summary, need the political nerve
to do something about quality in tandem with decreasing overly
constrained management practices.
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Ncze
FACT&
TRENDS
THE FUTURE OF THE FEDERAL WORKFORCE:
CIVIL SERVICE 2000
This FACTS AND TRENDS brief summarizes forecasts and gives quantitative evidence of emerging trends
as reported in CIVIL SERVICE 2000, a study sponsored by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM)
and conducted by the Hudson Institute.
The National workforce will grow more slowly than it has in recent years.
The National labor force will expand by only 1 percent annually during the 1990s down from the 2.9
percent annual growth rate of the 1970s. This forecast is predicated on an assumed 3 percent general
GNP growth rate.
Federal white-collar employment will grow during the 1990s.
Nationally, 25 percent of all U.S. workers hold professional, technical, and management-related
positions, while Federal workers in these categories represent a whopping 48 percent of the total
workforce. Around 80 percent of all Federal civilian employees outside of the Postal Service now hold
white-collar jobs.
In the white-collar areas, 17 out of 22 occupational groups will be adding workers, while the blue-
collar arena is projected to lose 16 out of 23 jobs. By the year 2000, there will be 157,000 new jobs
in the white-collar group, while blue-collar jobs will shrink by 107,000.
More women and minorities will enter the Federal workforce.
Non-whites, women, and immigrants will make up more than 80 percent of the net additions to the
workforce between now and the year 2000.
About two thirds of new entrants are expected to be women. Currently women make up about 40
percent of all full-time Federal workers.
Between 1986 and the year 2000, 17 percent of the growth in the Federal sector will be made up of
Blacks. Hispanics will compose 29 percent of the total worker increase.
The average age of the general U.S. workforce is expected to climb from 36 to 39 by the year 2000.
The Federal workforce, which is already older than the rest of the labor force, is also likely to age
further by the year 2000, and its median age will be higher than that of the workforce as a whole. A
majority of the workers who will staff the Federal government in the year 2000 are already there.
The numbers of young workers will decline.
The number of workers aged 16-24 is projected to drop by almost 2 million or 8 percent.
Language and math skills required for Federal jobs will rise by the year 2000.
Overall, 64,000 new jobs will be added in occupations requiring high-level math (algebra, statistics,
trigonometry) while 47,000 jobs requiring low-level math will disappear.
Among Federal workers, high level skills are required by some 16 percent of all jobs, more than three
times the national rate. More Federal jobs are filled by college graduates than by non-college graduates.
Impacts
As the average age of Federal employees increases, some Federal agencies are likely to
experience severe graying during the 1990s.
If current retirement patterns continue, the extraordinary number of early "baby boomers" who now
work for the government will still be employed by the civil service in the year 2000. The Federal
agencies are likely to experience severe graying during the 1990s, especially those agencies whose
employment totals have been shrinking in recent years. (e.g. Agriculture, HHS, and TVA).
Federal occupational trends suggest that the greatest problems of displacement faced
by Federal employees will occur among blue collar and clerical workers.
Blue collar jobs make up 19 percent of Federal workers, as compared to 28 percent for all U.S. workers
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in blue collar jobs. And many of these jobs are not actually being eliminated but are simply being
shifted to the private sector. This shift suggests that the displacement problems for blue collar workers
will not be severe, except in isolated circumstances. -
The increasing number of older workers in the Federal workforce is expected to create
both problems and opportunties.
On the one hand, d'ith the aging of the workforce, will come more experience, stability and reliability.
On the other hand, older workers are viewed as possessing a lower level of adaptability, being
unresponsive to change and less likely to be geographically mobile. A greater number of middle-aged,
mid-rank officials could reduce opportunities for younger managers and make retention of talented,
younger workers difficult.
Opportunities for minorities may prove limited or uneven.
The geographic concentration of minorities and immigrants will be uneven: labor markets in the
Southwest will be dominated by Hispanics, and labor markets in the urban North will be dominated by
Blacks. Although Hispanics and Blacks will make up a larger share of a slowly growing workforce,
many are unprepared educationally for the civil service higher skilled jobs and are concentrated in
declining inner cities and in slow-growing occupations.,
The Civil Service's ability to attract highly-skilled workers will be challenged by
more intense competition in the 1990s.
Since the "overriding requirement" for the Federal government over the next 12 years will 'be to add
more highly skilled workers, it is anticipated that competition between public and private employers
for skilled employees will increase. Many of the scarce skills will need to be developed through
retraining of existing employees in individual agencies rather than brought from outside the
government.
Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future
555 House Annex 2 Washington, DC 20515 [phone]
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP9O-0053OR000300600004-4
 lam/ . - a ,I ?, Y" _J < / C~ ~l 0
-" -'^ Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
I-Mol
sis of Con ence
Forecast for Civil Service
By Judith Havemann
Washington Post Staff Writer
prepared by, the_ Hudson Institute, a conservative
think tank.
The public's esteem-for the civll`service has
li federal government la'losing its ability to pf6'mmeted,' tl a re oft sal c'- J$j r' ntient
employees qualified to perform increasingly has been left with"rwhat some -Rave suggested,
plicated and technical work because of low only hall jokingly, is the best of the desperate,."
ries, declining prestige and needless frustra- Outdated management practices and needless
s, the administration told Congress yester-
Che federal government faces a slowly
rging crisis of competence," according to an
ial prognosis prepared for the Office of Per-
tel Management on the state of the civil ser-
in the year 2000.
3vernment salaries lag 24 percent on aver-
behind those in business, and in. high'-wage
s and in high-rankingjobs, the gap is wider,
rding to the report, "Civil Service 2000;"
PyWotiees of federal work foree changer Page A17
aggravations compound the inherent frustrations
and constraints of. large bureaucracies,, the re-
port said. Federal offices are often seedy. Fed-
eral telephones are -monitored for personal calls:
Periodically, "nei essential" federal workers are
sent home to await the resolution of a budget
impasse and reopening of the government
Blue-collar and kn-yskilled jobs in the fec
government are &6506iiiiing while the nee(
highly skilled and technically trained worke
soaring.
"The competition for well-qualified wor
will become more intense during the 1990s,'
report said. This is, because the labor fc
which exploded by nearly 3 percent a year ir,
1970s, will grow only one percent annually ir.
1990s.
More of the new jobs will require high le
of education and skill at a time when these .c
ities will be more scarce. Nonwhites, women
immigrants will make up more than five-sixti
the additions to the work force between 1
and 2000, according to the Hudson Institute.
See CIVIL SERVICE, A12, Col.1
f0!Qii:Se1'ViCe
~Y'IIMLOTIC'1
es. with the over- t...
regulated, cu m-ant! toward
k;personnel prose- Veterans
," OPM Director grnw her,
said 'jtj a news .,m1
r
f
ee bench; said
Dyer
edesa era to` p ani
,he pri sector
American,, public, face
the heed to Yst; t .tr:?>;
eral workers during the next 12
years.
share- of government jobs
requiring , advanced language
skiff-=such as reading scientific
journals, financial reports and legal
biiefs, and writing manuals and cri-
tiques-is three times that of the
nation as a whole. About 64,000
'federal' jobs will be added by the
is a picture of a
ce about the same
2000, but with sig-
away from defense
tic agencies. The
istration might
the aging popula-
veterans,.and the
Deparrtnnent
financial com-
beginning of the century that will
require use of statistics, algebra
andari
ometx
gan
y
.
a The ' avtage age .of the work
sha of federal fbroe'wig rise, the ` eminization of
'
will continue, minorities will
o Washington wot
on, who VV!s
ott-esM~
the d
er White Ni
gllp
repofi,,,_
u
of though t~ and
"11 need to build
y," but she pre '"m avgr s'"a rl pert t
to initiatives. crease in management-related fe
t the
older on the average than other
workers, and this trend will inten-
stiy.
The to called for a decen-
to
trafizaton of responsibility for op-
erations and hiring, continued em-
phasis on the hiring and training of
ages. ."Set high rds " the report
urged, "and firthose who do not
measure up."
r ui i iW AMC, air en. Instate predicts a
"" will repient the largest share of
ma A. Mikulski (D-Md.). greater concentrad tri i~eiral
the increase in the population and
se request that OPM conduct workers here by ration.
study was pact of the omnibus
thewOrrb force since World War I,
g b fiscal year, . jobnaton said that #
PM c the Hudson t is masked t `
la te, former Reagan count9 that exclude the `Centre Ins
is direcor telhgence'Agency and the Naflontl
E Is, to look at the h' Agency, which are be-
gat century's fora. Geved to have grown era natical y lit
pal author was relent years.
)nationally, only one-tenter of alt!
ianl~ B,
at
jobs are, professional, hancal or
stet dirctor
in the erial. In..the govern- women and minorities, an increase
t, wev":'theA *W. "`fn`"ii service" training, federal pay
e
ug and e*pectedtogrow. Joh= 'Upgrodes and flexible benefit pack=
stop p
icts a 17 percent increase
the *dson be a larger share of new entrants
as of Amer-
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4 -7
t
THE CHANGING FEDERAL WORK FORCE
PROJECTIONS FROM 'CIVIL SERVICE 2000'
THERE ARE MORE PROFESSIONALS
AND MANAGEMENT-RELATED WORKERS ...
PERCENTAGE SHARE OF FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT
1986
2000
Management-Related Occupations
14.1%
15.2%
`Engineers, Architects, Surveyors
5.2
6.0.
Natural and Computer Scientists
5.2
5.4
Social Scientists
0.8
0.8
Social, Recreational,, Religious Workers
0.4
0.4
Lawyers and Judges
0.9
1.0
Teachers, Librarians, Counselors
1.1
1.1
Health Treatment Occupations
4.1
4.2
Writers, Artists, Entertainers
0.7
0.7
Technicians
8.9 .
, 10.0
Other Professionals and Paraprofessionals
6.9
7.0
.Marketing and Sales Occupations
0.5
0.5
Administrative Support Occupations
25.1
21.4
Service Occupations ' 6.2
6.3
.Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.
1 1
1,1
Blue-Collar Workers Supervisors
1.9'
2.0
Construction Trades
2.2
2.3
Extractive and Related Workers
0.0
0.0
Mechanics, Installers and Repairers
6.2
6.6
Precision Production Occupations
2.0
2.0
Machine Setters, Operators' and Tenders
0.8 .
.0.8
Working Occupations and Assemblers
0.7
0.7
Plant and System Occupations
0.4
0.5
Material Moving and Vehicle Operators
1.6
1.6
Helpers and Laborers
3.1
2.9,
... THERE ARE MORE WOMEN EMPLOYEES
PERCENTAGE OF WOMFN IN FEDERAL WORK FORCE
1976 1986
...
2000
33.9% 39.8%
44.7%
.. AND WHITE COLLAR
EMPLOYMENT WILL KEEP GROWING
NUMBERS'IN THOUSANDS
1985
2000
INCREASE
Miscellaneous Occupations 54.6
68.1
24.8%
Social Science 57.0
75.7
32.8
Personnel Management 50.4
60.2
19.4
Administrative and Clerical 450,3
416.3
-7.5
Biological Sciences 54.8
73.0
33.2
Accounting and Budget 132.7
142.2
7.1
Medical and Other Health 141.7
191.0
34.8
Veterinary Medical Science 2.7
3.5
29.6
Engineering and Architecture 167.0
186.6
11.8
Legal and Kindred 74.7
102.1
36.8
Information and Arts 21.7
' 22.5
3.8
Business and Industry 95.3
118.3
24.2
Copyright, Patent, Trademark 2.0
2.3
14.7
Physical Sciences 44.4
45.1
1.6
Library'and Archives 10.1
11.7
16.3
Mathematics and Statistics 15.4
15.1
-1.5
Equipment, Facilities, Services 17.7
16.6
-6.2
Education 30.3
30.5
0.6
Investigation 56.4
70.2
24.4
Quality Assurance and Inspection 19.5
16.4
-15.8
Supply 60.5
48.0 ?
-20.7
Transportation 41.3
41.4
0.1
All White-Collar 1,600.6
1,757.2
9.8%
All Blue-Collar 423.1
316.2
-25.3%
TOTAL 2,023.7
2,083.4
3.0%
SOURCE: "Civil Service 2000," The Hudson Institute
'Excludes Postal Service.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10
Image will ire same
in 2000, study says
By Dan Vukelich
The federal work force 12 years
from now will be older, have more
women and minorities and suffer
from the same miserable image it
labors under now, according to a fed-
eral report released yesterday.
"Despite efforts to turn it around,
despite the efforts of people to say it
is an honorable profession, it is not
going to be held in very high regard:'
said William B. Johnston, author of
the report "Civil Service 2000," com-
missioned by the Office of Personnel
Management.
"There will be no change in the
short term," Mr. Johnston said.
As the growth in the overall labor
market slows to a trickle, dropping
from 3-percent annual growth in the
1960s and 1970s to a 1-percent
growth rate by 2000, the federal gov-
ernment will be hard pressed to re-
main competitive in recruiting top
prospects, particularly in technical
fields.
Rep. Steny Hoyer, Maryland
Democrat, called the looming prob-
lem "a crisis of competence," in
which talented employees will flee
the petty aggravations, low pay and
poor benefits of the federal govern-
ment.
Computer programmers, auditors
and other professionals with porta-
ble skills will walk out the door un-
less government offers them post-
hiring training and cuts down on
"outdated management and need-
less aggravations;' the report said.
Prepared by the Hudson Institute,
it called for more flexibility for per-
sonnel officers across government,
including decentralized pay and hir-
ing authority. The National Aero-
nautics and Space Administration
should be able to lure engineers with
the message of space, not "with the
concept of 'become a federal civil
servant, " Mr. Johnston said.
"Why do we have a Form 171,
when every employer in the country
gets by with letters of recommenda-
tion and resumes?" he asked.
John N. Sturdivant, president of
the American Federation of Govern-
ment Employees, said a decentral-
"Why do we have a
Form 171, when every
employer in the ,
country gets by with
letters of
recommendation and
resumes?"
- William B. Johnston
ized pay system is workable, pro-
vided collective bargaining is used
to prevent a "crazy quilt" of solu-
tions to the Civil Service's pay prob-
lems.
Foremost of the concerns raised
by the Hudson Institute report is a
picture of an aging, mostly middle-
aged work force whose members
will be unwilling to change with the
times.
In 1976, there were two large em-
ployee groups: 26-year-olds not long
in government service and 55-year-
olds waiting for retirement. By 1986,
the 55-year-olds had retired, leaving
CIA-RDP9O-0053OR000300600004-4 D?- ?
the single largest group in the 35
through 37 age range.
In 12 years, however, this group
will be 47 through 49. At that age,
they can be expected to be resistant
to change, possess less flexibility
and will be less likely to relocate or
learn new skills, Mr. Johnston said.
OPM Director Constance Horner
said the trend toward a more rigid,
inflexible bureaucracy has already
started. "The people who are inter-
ested in change are changing out of
government;' she said.
Agencies that can expect a dis-
tinctive "graying" of their work
forces will be the Agriculture De-
partment, Health and. Human Ser-
vices and the Tennessee Valley
Authority and others which have
shrunk in recent years.
Women, now underrepresented in
Civil Service, will swell the ranks,
and together with minorities, will
constitute 80 percent of net addi-
tions. White males, now comprising
50 percent of new entries, will drop
to only 15 percent of new hires in
2000, Mr. Johnston said.
Between now and 2000,17 percent
of the growth of the federal work
force will be made up of blacks. His-
panics will compose 29 percent of
the total work force.
Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Maryland
Democrat, who had asked for such a
study shortly after her election, said
the study contains no real surprises,
but confirms the direction the work
force appears to be taking and pro-
vides planners with. a solid data
base.
She said she was disappointed in
the report in that is didn't give "navi-
gational direction" on how to ad-
dress day care needs for female fed-
eral workers, for which there is no
one-easy answer.
At the Social Security Adminis-
tration's Baltimore headquarters,
where 65 percent of the workers are
-elder women, the problem becomes
apparent. "Just because they stop
having babies doesn't mean they
stop rearing babies;" she said.
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP9O-0053OR000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
lftwr N--4r
FUTURE
TRENDS
A Report From HRMS/RM
Environmental Scanning
Date: MAY 19 8 8
Issue Number: op p
Attached is a first product from HRMS/RM Environmental Scanning.
The importance of environmental scanning to our future mission was
recognized when it was adopted as an HRMS/RM Tactical Objective
(2.1.1), to which a Tactical Plan has since been addressed.
Environmental scanning surveys emerging trends and developments
in the world outside the Service. It seeks to identify such
trends in their earliest stages, to monitor their progress, to
think through their implications for HRMS/RM programs in the
future, and to assess their significance, impact, and probability.
The main objective of environmental scanning is to support strat-
egic planning by HRMS and RM executives by providing solid assump-
tions about the future world outside the Service. Additionally,
it aims at fostering innovative thinking and planning at the
working level of our National Office and Field organizations.
This first product is an "occasional paper," dealing with certain
human resources trends -- specifically, labor market trends.
There is no schedule nor fixed set of topics for producing papers
like this; they will be produced when the opportunity and the
accumulation of sufficient data permit. Generally, occasional
papers will be distributed to all functions in the Service, since
they will deal with long-range issues of common concern to all
those who manage the Service's resources. This is in contrast
with what we hope will be a monthly publication of brief, "bul-
let"-style reports and updates which will begin once our network
of volunteers has been trained. This monthly summary will focus
on trends of direct interest to those who manage HRMS/RM programs;
it will be sent to all HRMS and RN executives, to RM Division
Chiefs, and to HRMS managers. Finally, we intend to produce a
comprehensive report once a year, in preparation for the annual
strategic planning session of HRMS/RM executives.
Please share this and future reports from HRMS/RM Environmental
Scanning with those in your organization who need to keep abreast
of trends and developments in resources management.
Your comments on the attached paper are most welcome. They may be
addressed to Larz Pearson, Environmental Scanning Coordinator,
National Office, HR:H:R:S, Room 145 JSB (FTS 376-0120).
To: Chief Counsel, Regional Coamisioners, Assistants to the Commissioner,
Assistant Commissioners, A/C (mis) Division Directors, Assistant Regional
Commissioners (Resources Ranageaent), RR Division Chiefs, A/c (HR)(S)
managers.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
Human Resources Trends for the 90's:
A Convergence of Challenges
Environmental Scanning Occasional Paper #1
Larz Pearson
National Office Human Resources Division
Office of Research, Planning, and Development
HR:H:R:S
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
tJ
Introduction ..................................... 1
The Supply Side Picture.......................... 2
The Demand Side Picture .......................... 10
Strategic Options ......................:......... 16
(All projections, statements, and recommendations contained
herein are merely the author's own and do not represent Service
policy nor that of the Assistant Commissioner (Human Resources
Management and Support).]
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
INTRODUCTION
Through the end of the century, the Internal Revenue Service,
in particular,'and the Federal government as a whole will face a
number of challenges in recruiting and retaining a quality work-
force.
Many of these challenges have already been well rehearsed.
Federal-sector compensation packages are inflexible and not fully
competitive. Performance and real talent are not perceived as
being rewarded either expeditiously or equitably. Beginning with
civilian agencies in the early '80's and in DoD at the end of the
decade, Federal workers' confidence in the security of their jobs
has been eroded. Since George Wallace first introduced it in
1969, twenty years of anti-Washington, anti-bureaucrat rhetoric
have taken their toll and compromised the attraction and prestige
that once attached to public service. Work in the Federal sector
whether at the managerial or professional level -- can seem the
very antithesis of a socia'_ economy that extols entrepreneurial
initiative, innovation, flexibility, abbreviated production cyc-
les, and-the value of being market-driven and customer-oriented.
And looming over all the problems and darkening all potential
solutions is the spectre of intractable Federal budget deficits
-- which Federal workers believe will be balanced out of their
hides.
This paper does not seak to argue that these have been mis-
takenly identified as the principal challenges to the IRS and the
Federal government in seeking to remain a competitive employer
through the end of the century. If compensation, performance, job
security, public image, management, and Federal deficits do not
exhaust. the list of future challenges, they certainly are singu-
larly salient examples of them. Rather, its aim is at once more
modest and more ambitious.
In the first place, it tries to suggest that there are
trends already underway -- some of them largely irreversible --
which will elevate these challenges to an out-and-out crisis.
Secondly, although there is still time to fashion an array
of effective responses to the coming crisis, "business-as-usual"
will not get us there in time. Having effective solutions in
place will require a "crash effort" -- by the Service in consort
with other Executive Branch agencies, by 0MB and OPM, and by
Congress, all collaborating in unwonted comity of purpose.
Thirdly, it seeks to illustrate the complexity of the emerginc
situation, the way in which challenges from different quarters
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300600004-4
will "converge," and argues that only an approach that is compre-
hensive and systemic will meet it -- not, for example, an ever-
enlarging patchwork of special salary rates from the fringes of
one metropolitan area to the fringes of `tthet:.next. Such solutions
have the superficial allure of all quick fixes. Typically, how-
ever, they are responses only to the status quo ---and usually to
yesterday's status quo. Are poor economies and higher unemploy-
ment in oil-producing areas today proof-against tomorrow?
Finally, the paper tries to sugge.s,ttthhat in each range of
potential solutions there are genuine.apttefs for decision mak-
ers. And to each option there will be bath advantages and dis-
advantages which must be weighed care?ul.by.
an -ua
(Unless otherwise noted, quantitative dataiahs either derived
from or based upon data and projectiorbs;-iiss$ed by the U.S.
Department of Labor and especially, its~Bureau of Labor Statist-
ics . ~.. of
THE SUPPLY SIDE PICTUU8
The "supply side picture" is merely another way of asking
the question."Who will be the Federal or'-IRS employee of the
future?" That question can itself be construed in two ways. Tn
the first sense, it is a matter of simple numbers. It is a ques-
tion of quantity, of how many potential-employee there are like-
ly to be. Secondly, it can also be underst?Od as a question
about quality -- about the kind of education, talents, and skill;
which we can expect from the people who are.-likely to walk
through the doors of our employment offices.
I. The Question of Quantity
Answers to this question enjoy a high degree of probability
because of the nature of the evidence which underlies them. The
evidence here is demographic and reflects what has already
occurred (viz., live births since 1970). While some vast natura
catastrophe is always possible, these trends are unlikely to be
reversed. Additionally, overall population projections through
the end of the century are subject to economic assumptions;., his-
torically, fertility rates have been sensitive to economic con-
ditions.
- 2 -
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
A. Slow Growth in the Overall U.S. Population
As an initial approach to answering the question of "Who
will be our employee?", one needs to look at trends in the over-
all U.S. population, which underlie growth or decline in the
labor force.
Estimates of the growth of the U.S. population as a whole
from 1985 through 2000 range from 7% increase (or 256 million) to
18% (281 million), with 15% growth (or 275 million) representing
the "moderate" growth scenario. Estimates of the average annual
increase in U.S. population range from .07% to 1% -- the slowest
rate of increase since the era of the Great Depression.
Live births will increase to approximately 4 million annu-
ally, which represents an increase in fertility compared to fer-
tility rates prevailing in the prior fifteen years. However,
this does not mean that people will be having more children, but
only that there are more people to have children.
The.years from 1945 through 1965 represented a period of
unprecedented growth in both population and fertility. More people
were having more children; these offspring are the "Baby Boom"
generation.
However, after 1965, both the fertility rate and the number
of children born began to decline dramatically -- the former by
50% and the latter by 25%. By 1977, the young adult portion of
the overall population began to ebb. Measured against their 1980
share of the population, young adults (ages 20 to 29) will fall
from 18% to 13% of overall population. This diminished genera-
tion has been called the "Baby Bust" generation and represents
the slowest growth in population and fertility rates since the
slough of the Great Depression.
Correspondingly, this decline in births will accelerate a
'middle-aging' of America. By 2000, the median age of the gen-
general population will be 36 years -- six years older than at
any time in U.S. history. If one breaks this increase in the
"middle aged" down in terms of age groups, the projections are
even more striking: the number of people aged 35 to 47 years
will increase by 38% through 2000; those aged 48-53 will increase
by 67%.
Only after 1980 do fertility rates begin modestly increasing
(the "Baby Boom echo" as more of that generation began reaching
the end of their most fertile years.)
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300600004-4
Some Exceptions to This Trend
. The figures cited are aggregate and average figures.
low fertility rates and slow growth in population do not
all segments of the future U.S. population equally.
Immigrants. Immigrants, chiefly from Asia and Cent:.
South America, are projected to contribute 33% of the inc
U.S. population through 2000. At the very least, at a rAt
450,000 new immigrants yearly, they will add 9.5 million
U.S. population and 4 million to the U.S. labor force by t,
2000. However, should illegal immigration continue at t>,?
prevailing at the beginning of the '80's or should immi.r)'.
laws be relaxed (cf. story on pending legislation raisin?
quotas to 570,000 in The Washington Post, 3/16/88,.o. 3)
as 16 million people may be added to the U.S. population
million to the U.S. labor force by the year 2000. Duri-:::
period, the number of Asian immigrants will surpass the
new immigrants from Central and South America. The AC:a-
grant population will tend to be younger than average frc-
population as a whole, but will also have a lower fertiliy-
than native white America.
Hispanic Americans. A second exception to the si?~w
rate in the general population will occur among Hispanic .4r:?
cans. This group grew at a rate five times that of th=
population as a whole from 1980 to 1985; currently, one it
fourteen Americans is of Hispanic descent -- or 7.2% of th
U.S. population. This is projected to grow to 8.9% by 200^
some areas, growth in the Hispanic population will be more -:ra..
atic; for-example, by 2000, Hispanics will top 50% of the roc 1
tion of Texas. By 2080, people of Hispanic origin will
tute 19.2% of the U.S. population, outstripping the black- Arie-
ican proportion of the U.S. population (projected to be 17.9%)
for the first time.
The Hispanic population continue to be younger than the gen-
eral U.S. population and also to have a higher fertility rate.
Black Americans. To a lesser extent, the Black American
population will also be an exception to the slow-growth scenario
for the U.S. population as a whole. In the period from 1980 to
1985, Black population growth also exceeded overall population
growth (8.2% vs. 6.3%.). The proportion of total population
represented by U.S. Blacks will rise from 1.2% in 1985 to slightly
over 13% by 2000.
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B. Mixed Growth Picture for U.S. Labor Force.
By 2000, the U.S. labor force is projected to increase to
141 million, a rise of 22% over 1985 (115 million). This re-
presents a slightly faster growth rate than that for the U.S.
population as a whole, but is still the lowest rate of increase in
this segment since the 1930's.
However, by one estimate, fully 8 out of every 10 people who
will be working in 1995 is already either working now or actively
seeking work. It is with regard to the supply of entry-level
workers that the 'Baby Bust' effect will be most dramatically
felt. This supply will decline by 25% from the number of 1985
entrants over the decade of the '90's; every year 2-3% fewer
young people will be entering the work force than did the prev-
ious year.
The dramatic decline in the supply of young adult entrants
in the labor force is also illustrated by the phenomenon of "mid-
dle-aging" in the workforce: the average age of the U.S. worker
is projected to rise from 36 (1985) to 39 by the end of the cen-
tury.
The effect of this shrinking. supply of new, young workers
will be most notably felt in percentage of new entrants to the
U.S. labor force represented by native-born white sales. This
group, which formed 47% of the total labor force in 1985, is est-
imated to account for only 15% of the growth in the U.S. work-
force through 2000.
If the higher fertility rates that began to be evidenced
in the early '80's continue, some increase in new entrants into
the labor force may begin to be registered by 1998.
Some Exceptions To This Trend
Many of the same exceptions to slow population growth are
also exceptions to an overall sluggish growth in the U.S. work-
force and, in particular, to new entrants into the labor pool.
Women in General. By 2000, 61% of women will have entered
the workforce and will constitute 50% of the working population.
More notably, women are projected to represent 2 out of every 3
new hires in the decade of the '90's.
Of growth in entrants into the U.S. workforce through the
end of the century, native-born white females will account for
42%.
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Minorities. Taken together, minorities will constitute
approximately 29% of new hires and as much as 16% of the labor
force by 2000.
Immigrants are projected to constitute 2/3 of those attain-
ing working age through 2000 and to account for 22% of labor
force growth.
Hispanic immigrants or people of Hispanic descent are pro-
jected to account for 22% of the growth in the workforce.
Projections for U.S. Black participation in the workforce
by 2000 are mixed. Black males will account for 7-8% of this
growth, while Black females are projected to account for a 12-13%
share of this growth.
Two cautions about minority projectionsmust be mentioned.
Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be living in poverty, to
be overrepresented in occupations which are projected to lose
employees, and to live in central cities beset by crime, poor
educational systems, and at a distance from suburban/exurban areas
where 'jobs are likely to grow.
II. The Question of Quality
As noted earlier, the other way to answer the "Who will
be our future worker?" question is ask "What sort of person
with what sort of educational attainments or skill levels can
we expect to employ?"
A. Educational Levels
The recent past has exhibited a marked trend of an ever
increasing supply of better educated workers. For example, in
1940, only 24% of American adults had a high school diploma; by
1981 this percentage had almost tripled. In 1970, 1 in 10 Amer-
icans had earned a college degree; by 1985, this had increased to
1 in 5.
However, in the decade of the '90's, these expectations will
be challenged. For one thing, projections of what the pool of
educated workers will be in this period are, to some extent,
extrapolations from demographic data. The decline represented
by the "Baby Bust" will register in high school and college
enrollments and in numbers of bachelors degrees earned during the
same period. However, changes in post-graduate and professional
degrees may also be the result of additional factors such as de-
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clining educational quality, cutbacks in educational assistance,
and in economic and job market conditions. For example, it has
been estimated that in 1962 a college graduate earned 65% more
than a high school graduate on average; by 1982, this disparity
had shrunk to 52% and can be seen as a limiting factor on or
possible disincentive to pursuing higher educational opportuni-
ties.
(Educational projections are limited to covering the period
through 1993 and are taken from Projections of Education Statis-
tics to 1992-1993 (National Center for Education Statistics, U.S.
Dept. of Education.)]
High School Graduates. From the 1981 school year through
the 1991 school year, high school graduates are expected to
decline from 3 million to 2.3 million (a decline of 20%) before
beginning to rise again. To a lesser extent, there will also
be a decline in those earning a GED certificate from 492,000
to 450,000 in 1991-1992 (an 8% decline.) The problem of high
school drop-outs is likely to continue to be.intractable (over-
all, 25% of entering high school freshmen will fail to graduate.)
In one sense, to the extent that a "seller's" market comes into
being for entry-level labor during the '90's, this unfortunate
trend may be accelerated by the allure of high entry-level wages.
If one looks at groups whose growth in population and in
labor force share is likely to outstrip the overall U.S. fig-
ures, it should be noted that Hispanics have the highest high
school drop-out rate, while Blacks have the second highest rate.
Additionally, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates
in 1983, if one looks at median years of schooling, Hispanics
have 12.1 years and Blacks 12.5 years (vs. 12.8 years for
whites.)
College a University Education. The traditional college age
population (those 18 to 24 years old) will decline by 19% -- from
an all-time high of 30.5 million in 1981 to roughly 25 million by
1992.
Undegraduate enrollment projections present a mixed picture.
From 1982 through 1992, overall undergraduate enrollment will
decline by 7%. This decline will be more severe among male en-
rolees (-8%) than among females (-6%).
A similar decline will be experienced at all levels of
earned college and university degrees.
Through 1993, the number of bachelor's degrees awarded will
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fall by 6%.
The number of master's degrees will fall more precipitously
from a high of 317,000 in 1976-77 to 285,000 in 1993 -- a 10%
decline.
Through 1993, the number of Ph.D's granted will rise slight-
ly (+2.5%); however, this "optimistic" projection conceals an anc
aly. From a high point of nearly 29,000 Ph.D. degrees earned by
males in 1972-1973, the number of Ph.D's earned by this group
will decline by 40% through 1993. By contrast, the number of
Ph.D.'s granted to women candidates will rise by 53% from 1981-
1982 through 1992-1993.
A similar phenomenon is projected to occur in the number of
first professional degrees (e.g., law, medicine) granted. From
a high of 72,000 such degrees awarded in 1981-1982, awards will
fall by 6% -- to 67,800 by 1992. The decline among male candi-
dates from a high point in 1980 will be 15%:' from 53,000 to
45,000. By contrast, the number of females earning first pro-
fessional degrees will increase by 16%: from slightly less than
20,000, in 1981-1982 to nearly 23,000 by 1992.
It should be notea tnat overall college and university
enrollments among students older (+ 30 years)-than the traditions
al age for matriculating at these institutions will increase; by
1993 they are projected to account for 30% of total enrollment ii
institutions of higher learning. To some extent, this projectioc
may reflect an increasing trend toward education-for-career-
change. It is also based upon the likelihood that as the numbers
of their traditional enrollees decline, institutions of higher
learning are likely to enter the corporate- and job-training
market as either a substitute for an inhouse capital investment
in training or as a supplement in internal training programs.
If one looks at groups whose growth in population and in
labor force share is likely to outstrip the overall U.S. fig-
ures, it should be noted that recently the perecentages of His-
panic and Black high school seniors who have entered college have
declined: from 34.6% in 1976 to 29.2% in 1983.
B. Literacy as an Index of Skill Levels
The supply of job-related skills in the workforce of the
next ten years is more difficult to project. Indeed, it would
be necessary to distinguish between skills that are directly
and immediately applicable to existing jobs and those which
might be termed "pre-employment" skills, which are the foundatio:
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for acquiring and applying job-related skills.
The question of acquired skills for functioning in the work-
place of the future goes to the issue of the content of education
-- particularly, at the secondary level. Other educational data
(e.g., numbers of enrollees, median years of education) acquire
true significance only in relation to the content of what is
learned.
In general and among all groups, SAT test scores, which are
indices of verbal and ^athmetical skills, have begun rising.
A counterindication, however, is the persistence of illit-
eracy among the U.S. population. In a 1982 sample by the Census
Bureau, it was estimated that 13% of adult Americans -- 20 mil-
lion adults -- are illiterate in English. Of this group, it been
estimated that 8 million are white, 4 million are Black, and 7
million are of Hispanic or other immigrant origin. To get a true
sense of the problem, these numbers must be compared with pro-
portions of these groups in the U.S. population. While 4 out of
every.100 white Americans may be classified as illiterate, rough-
ly 13 out of every 100 Blacks and perhaps as many as 25 to 30 of
every 100 Hispanics can be so classified. It has Further been
estimated that another 20 million American adults are only mar-
ginally literate -- i.e., reading below the eighth-grade level.
The disproportionate extent to which illiteracy is represented
among precisely those groups who will increase their share of
entries in the job market in the next decade is sobering.
Movements for curriculum reform, stricter graduation re-
quirements, and performance-based pay for teachers are likely to
continue to gather momentum at both the State and Federal levels,
although the outlook for major, public investment in education is
less certain (particularly at the Federal level, because of budg-
et deficits.)
III. Summing Up
Based simply on assumptions about growth and contraction in
supply -- in particular, the supply-of new entrants into the
labor force, one can summarize briefly the supply side picture
for the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal government as a
whole and give a preliminary answer to the question "Who will
there be to recruit in the '90's?"
The overall supply of new entrants into the U.S. labor force
will decline in the decade of the '90's.
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Growth in the supply of new entrants will occur among women,
Blacks, Hispanics and other immigrants. By contrast, the supply
of native white males will markedly decline.
Overall, the availability of laborforce entrants who are
high school or college graduates will decline as will that of
those holding post-graduate and first professional degrees. For
post-secondary degrees, this decline will be more dramatic among
male entrants into the labor force.
Warren apart, members of groups ip which the supply of new
entrants will grow are, to varying degrees, likely to be more
limited in educational attainment and certain "pre-employment"
skills.
The "demand side" picture is the other element in the equa-
tion of the future labor market. Drawing this picture involves
projecting occupations which are likely to either grow or decline
through the '90's and projecting educational and skill-level
requirements during the same period. This can also be phrased as
a question, "What and whom will employers be hiring (and.compet-
ing for) in the next ten years?"
I. Occupation Projections
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections, the
fifteen occupations which will add the most new jobs in absolute
terms through the middle of the next decade are:
Occupation % Increase over 1984
Computer Programmers
71.7%
Computer Systems Analysts
68.7%
Electric/Electronic Engineers
52.8%
Electric/Electronic Technicians
50.0%
Computer Operators
46.1%
Attorneys
35.5%
Accountants & auditors
34.84
Mechanical engineers
34.0%
Registered Nurses
32.8%
Cashiers
29.8%
Restaurant cooks
29.7%
Wholesale trade salespersons
29.6%
Nurses aides/orderlies
28.9%
Cosmetologists/switchboard operators @
28.7%
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The fifteen occupations which are projected to expand the fastest
(relative to their 1984 numbers) during the same period are:
Occupation
% Increase over 1984
Paralegals
.97.5%
Computer Programmers
71.7%
Computer Systems Analysts
68.7%
Medical Assistants
62.0%
DP Equipment Repair
56.2%
Electric/Electronic Engineers
52.8%
Electric/Electronic technicians
50.7%
Computer operators
46.1%
EDP Peripherals Operators
45.0%
Travel Agents
43.9%
Physical Therapists
42.2%
Physicians assistants,
40.3%
Securities/Financial Services Sales
39.1%
Mechanical Engineering Technicians
36.6%
Attorpeys
35.5%
Several trends emerging from these projections should be
noted.
First, the pre-.eminence of the service sector of the economy
as adding the most new jobs and growing the most rapidly through
1995. Within thip sector, trade and medical services are notable
areas of new job opportunity.
Secondly, the considerable growth represented by the "in-
formation" industry and its adjuncts: computer programmers;
systems analysts; computer operators.
Thirdly, for the future of the IRS, 4 of the top 7 occupa-
tions which will add the greatest number of jobs and 5 of the 15
occupations which will add jobs at the fastest rate are occupa-
tions which are critical to accomplishing the Service's mission
either currently (e.g., accountants/auditors, attorneys) or
increasingly so in the future (e.g., "information jobs") will be
precisely those occupations for which there is likely to be a
booming demand.
A slightly different demand picture emerges from a recent,
Report from the Conference Board, a consortium of business exec-
utives, that uses different and broader categories:
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Category
% Growth 1986-2000
Professionals
35.7%
Service Workers
34.7%
Skilled Workers
32.8%
Unskilled Laborers
27.7%
Semi-Skilled Workers
23.2%
Sales Workers
21.1%
Clericals
9.0%
Farmers
8.8%
Managers
6.1%
Of particular note is that the combination of enhanced management
information infrastructures and pressures to improve white-collar
productivity will so depress the creation of new management jobs
that growth in this category is projected to average less than
half of one percent (.5%) per annum.
II. Education & Skill Requirements Projections
Besides projecting growth in particular occupations or types
of jobs, an account of the demand picture in the decade of the
'90's must also try to project what employers will be looking for
to fill those jobs, what the skill requirements will be for new
jobs as those jobs either change or emerge.
In a study commissioned by'the Department of the Labor (JunE
1987), the Hudson Institute developed two useful indices in this
connection.
In the first, they compared the year. of education required
for various shares of current jobs with those likely to be requiz
for new jobs in the coming decade:
%.of Current
% of Future
Education Jobs Requiring
Jobs Requiring
8 yrs. or less
6%
4%
1-3 yrs high school
12%;
10%
4 yrs. high school
40%
35%
1-3 yrs. college
20%
22%
4 yrs of college or more
22%
30%
From these projections and from a projection that the median
years of school required for future jobs (13.5 yrs. vs. 12.8 yrs
for current), the trend toward job growth in precisely those
industries, occupations, and fields requiring more education is
apparent. The marked increase in jobs requiring a college or
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post-graduate degree (8%) should be noted.
In the second set of projections, the focus was on the
skill content of jobs. A skill-rating system, in which "6"
represented a high degree of sophistication or proficiency, was
applied across three broad skilllareas (language, mathmetical,
and.reading skills) to project the average skill requirements of
jobs:
Skill
Skill
Skill
Skill
Level:
Level:
Level:
Level:
Current
Fast
Slow
Declining
Skill Area
Jobs
Growth
Growth
Jobs
Language
3.1
3.18
2.7
1.9
Mathematics
2.6
3.1
2.3
1.6
Reading
3.5
4.2
3.2
2.6
In a parallel with the upward trend in educational prere-
quisites of growing occupations,ia similar trend is manifest with.
respect to basic skill requirements. During the coming decade,
the new jobs which employers will be competing to `ill will
require much higher skill levelslthan the average of current
jobs, on the one hand, and than jobs whose numbers will either
grow more slowly or decline, on the other.
LABOR MARKET PICTURE
A market is an exchange of value for value. The basis of
this exchange is not fixed, but.fluctuates according to a chang-
ing ratio of a supply of a value to the demand for it.
What should be abundantly clear from the foregoing "supply
side" and "demand side" pictures,of the labor force in the coming
decade is that, in many occupations critical to the success of
the Service's work, the general (private- and public-sector)
demand for well-qualified, well-educated new workers is likely
to far outstrip the supply.
Scarce supply increases. the value of whatever is in demand
in the exchange. Besides competing for a diminished supply,''the
Service is likely to be competing, with less value to offer in
exchange -- with an inability to compete in the "price" arena, at
least, in the traditional price arena (i.e., compensation.) This
loss of competitiveness is already being felt in the need to have
recourse to special salary rates for various occupations in sev-
eral locales around the country.'
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What should be clear is that, far from being a temporary
anomaly, these developments are tocsins of the coming onslaught.
In 1987, the average U.S. wage reached $9.00 an hour. The Fed-
eral minimum wage now equals 33.8% of the average manufacturing
wage, 37.3% of the overall U.S. average wage, and only 39.6% of
the average service-sector wage. Indeed, because of the dominance]
of the service-sector in the U.S. economy, the average service-
sector is rapidly approaching the $9 U.S. average of all hourly
wage rates.)
. The Department of Labor Survey of Professional, Administra-
tive, Technical and Clerical Pay (March 1986) provides another
way of registering the "supply crunch" with respect to certain
occupations that are critical to the IRS (private-sector entry
and "journey" levels and their Federal equivalents only are repre-
sented):
GS/GM
Private Sector GS/GM Average GS/GM
Occupation/Level Avg. Salary Equivalent Salary Step 1
(1/1/86)
(1/1/86)
Attorney
1
31,n~a
9
24, 521
21,804
3
50,119
12
36,176
31,619
Accountant
1
21,024
5
16,272
14,390
3
31,143
9
24,521
21,804
4
39,293
11
29,881
26,381
Public Accountant
1
20,468
7
20,241
17,824
3
26,633
11
29,881
26,381
Computer Systems
Analyst
1
29,141
9
24,521
21,804
3
41,997
12
36,176
31,619
Computer Programmer
I
20,832
5
16,272
14,390'
3'
29,324
9
24,521
21,804
Key Entry Operators
13,146
2
10,785
10,501
A more sobering view emerges from an attempt to project
these disparities in certain critical occupations through 1995;
in several instances, these are the same occupations in which
increased demand through the middle of the 1990's has already
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been remarked. By multiplying the average private-sector salary
for various professional levels by an average of annual private-
sector salary increases from 1981-1986 (which includes both high-
inflation/high-increase and low-inflation/low-increase years) in
selected critical occupations and then multiplying the equivalent
average GS/GM salaries by an assumed 3% annual increase, a mark-
edly unfavorable trend can be forecast for the ratio of Federal
salaries to corresponding private-sector average salaries for the
same. occupations and levels:
GS GM 1986 Ratio Projected 1995 Ratio
occupation/Level
Eau Equivalent Federal Private
Federal Pr vate
Attorney
1
9
.79
.51
3
12
.72
.46
4
13
.68
.44
1.
5
.77
.63
3
9
.79
.62
4
11
.76
.60
5
12
.76
.58
.76
.61
.76
.62
1
7
.99
.92
3
11
. 1.12
1.04
Computer Operator
1
4
1.04
.83
3
6
.86
.67
4
7
.83
.71
Computer Programer
1
5
.78
.66
2
7
.82
.71
3
9
.84
.75
4
11
.86
.74
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(Cont.)
GS M 1986 Ratio
Projected 1995 Ratio
Occupation/Level
Equivalent Federal rivate
Federal/Prate
Systems Analyst
1
9 .84
.75
2
11 .86
.76
3
12 .86
.77
4
13 .88
.78
Rey Entry Operator
1
2 .82
.69
2
3 .72
.61
These projections suggest several remarks. First, in every
occupation and at every professional level, the application of
this formula results in future adverse impacts on the comparabil-
ity of Federal-sector salaries.1,Across these eight critical
occupations, the loss of comparability over the coming years
ranges from 28% to 8%. Even occupations in which the Service
currently enjoys a favorable ratio over- comparable private-sector
salaries will lose a measure oficompetitiveness.
Secondly, some occupations; will be more notably affected
than others -- - for- example, attorney, auditor,. nd accountant.
In the past, the opportunity for marketable IS experience per-
haps balanced out the salary disparities. However, with the loss
of much direct Federal funding of college students and the burden
of educational loans, the hope that people who were willing to
work for 68% of the private-sector salary will continue to be
willing to work for 44% of what they could earn in the private
sector seems overly optimistic.
Thirdly, certain occupations are more likely to lose com-
parability at senior levels (e.g., attorney, accountant, computer
operator, key entry operator). Others are more likely to suffer
a greater loss at the entry level (e.g., public accountant, com-
puter programmer, systems analyst.)
Finally and perhaps most importantly, it should be noted
that these projections do not take the shrinking supply of
entry-level labor into account; they are predicated only on a
steady supply.
In any market, a tight supply not only increases the price
of acquiring new stock, but also tends to drive the value of
existing stock upwards. For examples, a surge in the price of
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gold affects not only the price of new jewelry that will be
manufactured from it, but also that in-stock jewelry is auto-
matically more valuable and more costly as well. Besides the
most obvious impact of diminished supply on the "price" of new
recruits, it will also increase the value of the current on-board
employee inventory. Although Federal-sector attrition "costs"
are largely unquantifiable at this stage of the art, it is safe
to say that the coming labor market "crunch," by increasing the
value of onboard personnel, will increase the direct and indirect
costs of manager and employee attrition.
STRATEGICIOPTIONS
The overriding objective for the IRS and for the Federal
sector as a whole for the next decade is survival of organiza-
tions sufficient to and fit for their fulfilling their missions.
In large measure, the core of this objective-is recruiting and
retaining a sufficient number of lemployees'who can perform the
jobs that carry out the organizational mission.
Consensus about this objective is general and long-standing.
Already, in certain agencies (DoD, FAA) plans have been prepared
and are awaiting Congressional action which would have the net
effect of removing their workforce from the Federal personnel
system over which OPM presides. In both of the cases cited,
recruitment and retention of a qualified workforce are the.
principal reasons adduced for these drastic measures.
Within the Service, there is general agreement that recruit-
ing and retaining the quality and mix of.employees we need even
now is becoming more difficult by the year. However, this con-
sensus has not yet been translated into in fully considered
strategic actions which are high in priority (in terms of
urgency and funding) and to which. the Service is committed to
"stay the course."
Adopting a strategic stance with respect to long-range
issues and problems is not tantamount to a posture of leisure.
While such an approach concedes that "Rome wasn't built in a
day," it also sounds the factory-whistle summoning all able-
bodied. hands to start building. The virtues of a strategic
approach toward the labor market challenge projected here are
several.
First, because of the very nature of the challenge which
the Service will face -- the complexity both of its causes and
of its likely solutions and their sources, it is highly unlikely
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that any effective "quick fixes" are realistic options.
Secondly, a strategic approach merely identifies a direc-
tion, a front, a "slice" of the:horizon, within which solutions
may lie. It does not short-circuit the passage from strategic
issue to particular action plans. Rather, it is a mandate to
explore, to hypothesize, to test, and to coordinate the short-
and mid-term with long-range objectives and opportunities. And
it is a mandate to do so urgently. For example, there is nothing
inherently wrong with "stop-gap" measures as long as they are
consistent with articulated ultimate goals.
Lastly, because such an approach is not geared to precipitous
action, it allows for (and, indeed, should have as one of its
ingredients) a critique of the assumptions of action. A key
moment in strategy formulation is identifying realistic options;
these are the direction or front along which courses of action
will be devised and pursued. Too often, however, in the context
of organizational life, options are too readily excluded, with or
without full deliberation, as being "unthinkable" or "impossi-
ble."?But a genuinely strategic approach has the advantage of
admitting many options to be studied, considered, and even
tentatively pursued -- not only 'those which are the most obvious
or the most congruent with organizational tradition and past
practice.
Developing options, pursuing them in an experimental way,
and rigorously assessing them recognizes a fundamental reality
for the Service: that-it is impossible to strategically improve
every single element and factor of our systems for recruiting
and retaining our workforce simultaneously and as equal priori-
ties, if for no other reason than a realistic assessment of
what such an "all-fronts" strategy would cost.
In the case at hand, some of the fundamental options are:
(1) Do we place the principal emphasis on recruitment or
retention?
?(2) Do we attempt to compete in recruiting from the same
populations as we have in the past or do we attempt
to penetrate new recruitment pools?
(3) Do we need to rethink the role of training? Is it
only training for the,immediate tasks comprised in
a job that needs to be filled? Or is there something
like "strategic training" -- training for any job,
training for a career, training that establishes
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a long-term mutual commitment between the Service
and its recruits?
With some overlap, each option presents different paths to be
explored and different priorities. It is clear that some courses
of.action will make sense as part of our human resources strategy
no matter which of these fundamental options the Service decides to
commit its efforts and resources to. Bringing salaries into a
more competitive stance or introducing flexibility into a bene-
fits package are likely to be effective actions for either
recruiting or retaining or for either our current recruitment
pool or some other, as-yet-untapped population.
Nevertheless, how they fit into the overall strategy --
their order of priority in the overall course of action -- will
be determined by which of the options are selected. For example,
if the options chosen are to go all out to remain competitive.in
the recruitment arena and to continue to target new young adult
entrants into the job market, developing flexibility in the
benefits.package will probably be a higher priority action. It
should be emphasized that to choose to pursue one option strateg-
ically is not to exclude others entirely. For example, to focus
on retaining employees does not mean abandoning recruitment
efforts. It merely recognizes the fact that*the Service will not
deliver quality responses in a timely manned over the entire
gamut of potentially useful actions. It is a matter of priori-
ties, then, of,deciding on the ba3is of the information available
which option deserves to be pursued more urgently and with a
greater investment.
An xample-might help explain how an unconventional option
could.be pursued. Continuing to pursue a recruitment pool that
already possesses basic, "pre-employment" knowledges and skills
may be judged wholly or partially ineffective or not cost-effec-
tive. One is to pursue a recruitment pool that is not
"pr~qualified." At.. is D nt training becomes a.n_element of
a larger strategy and is no longer focused on imparting kno lew dges
and skills a are it imme lately re ated to:: a parti=
cular, circumscri a job. In such a course of action, t e Ser----
vice itself or its ven ors would become an educational institu-
tion -- offering remedial "three R's" instruction to a recruit-
ment market in which competition is less intense. Or, in the
case of certain critical, technical occupations, the Service
might follow the example of the Armed Services or the Public
Health Service and underwrite undergraduate or .professional
education in exchan a or a commitment to work in that occupa-
tion for a defined period of time.
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This option or actions like these may seem, at first blush,
far-fetched. But the cost of remaining competitive in a "pre-
qualified" labor market might equal or surpass the cost of pur-
suing it. Moreover, these courses of actions are exactly the
ones our competition, corporate America, is pursuing -- to the
tune of $40 billion annually (the annual budget of the entire
post-secondary educational system in the U.S. is $60 billion.)
For example, a recent issS&e of. The Wall Street Journal
reported a major shift in corporate philanthropy -- away from
arts and culture funding and even. from post-secondary education
toward improving local primary and secondary education. Although
it would be easy to say that primary and secondary education are
public concerns that should be publicly funded, this is one
strategy our competition is already deploying to enlarge the pool
of "pre-qualified" recruits.
Another strategy is the "corporate university" (cf. WSJ,
9/28/87, p. 35), whose size and outlays are. beginning to close
on those of the post-secondary education establishment. Motorola,
Aetna, Bell South, Kodak, Westinghouse are among the major com-
panies that have established in-house, degree-granting programs
-- again to the same goal: to increase, from the inside, the
pool of "pre-qualified" candidates for the jobs that need to be
filled.
Ford Motor Company has established an inhouce education
program to ensure that all its employees become fully literate.
Prudential, Dow Chemical, and American Express have all estab-
lished remedial training programs in basic, "pre-employment"
skills (cf. WSJ, 9/28/87, pp. 1 & '27')-._'- `I"n these cases, the
motive is not philanthropic. These companies see this investment
as dually strategic: it increases the-number of those available
to fill future jobs and it improves productivity.
Other private-sector firms see underwriting employee educa-
tion as a key element of an overall quality improvement strategy
(cf. WSJ, 10/26/87, p. 26).
Whether the Service selects this strategic option or others,
perhaps equally "unthinkable;" to meet its coming challenge in
finding people to do its work effectively is less important than
that all the options should be explored and studied and, above
all, expressed in dollars-and-cents (at least to the extent that
our current human resources information systems permit it.). This
may involve a "crash effort" in new and untried arenas, but such
efforts may need to become part of the basic way in which we man-
age our human resources in the future.
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SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY Op SOURCES
Bureau of the Census, Statistil cal Abstract of the
States.
United
Bureau of Labor Statistics, EmIlo
Data and Methods. D yment Proiections
for 1995:
Administrative, Technical Nation a 1 Surve of
and Clerical paw Ma - professional,
- ? March 1986.
Training Data.
Occupational proiections and
Hudson Institute, workforce 2000: Work and
Cen_ t_ u_y_
21st Worker
--_s for the
National Center for Education
Educational Statristics to 199=3_Statistics p
_ roiections of
Snyder, D.P. & Edwards
, G ? , Future Forces.
901 sUnited Way of America, What Lies
Ahead: Lo=~ Toward the
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9.
Leave-Transfer Extension Clears-Congress
By Don Phillips
Washington Post Staff Writer
The House voted yesterday to
extend for five years the leave-
transfer program . that allows fed-
eral workers to give annual leave to
'fellow workers with family or med-
ical emergencies who have used up
all their vacation time or sick leave.
A new experimental "leave ' bank"
is also authorized by the bill, under
which workers may contribute to a
pool of leave time that could be used
by fellow workers in emergencies.
The bill, passed earlier by the
Senate, cleared the House by voice
vote and went to the White House.
The leave-transfer program 'has
been in effect for about 'a year, and
technically expired at the end of
September. Under the plan, a work-
er must certify that he or she has a
family or medical emergency that
requires time away from work, but
has used all annual leave and sick
time. The employing agency may
require certification from doctors
or other specialists.
Donating employees may not do-
nate more than half their accumu-
lated annual leave hours.
The legislation exempts the
leave-transfer program from laws
banning gifts to superiors, allowing
them to accept leave from employ-
ees they supervise.
The plan is government-wide, al-
,lowing lowing workers in one agency to do-
nate to workers in another.. But the
Central Intelligence Agency and, oth-
er federal intelligence agencies would
be exempted from the ,government-
wide transfer program, although they
would be required to establish: their
own leave-transfer programs.
Under the new experimental
leave-bank program, the Office of
Personnel Management must estab-
lish a program under which any
worker could contribute leave into a
central fund that would be available
for other workers with emergencies.
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 U
A
Summary f Today's Important News Stories
and Events
MONDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1988
GOOD MORNING
IN THE NEWS...
AGENCIES TO HIRE TEMPORARIES---director Horner announces plans for
federal agencies to begin hiring temporary employees. in government offices to
help in emergencies, peak. periods, or when the agency can't find a permanent
employee for the position. Regulations pubished in today's Federal Register allow
federal agencies to pay the going rate 'for temporary personnel. Temporaries may
not displace permanent federal employees, nor, in general, hold the same job for
more than a month and a half, according to the rules. Horner said temps would
give short-handed federal agencies needed flexibility to serve the public and help
their regular employees, but three major federal unions express "grave concern"
or worse (The Washington Post, The Washington Times).
FEDERAL DIARY MISC.---It now appears that leave sharing will continue. The
President is expected to sign a bill making permanent the program allowing
federal workers to transer unused annual leave to colleagues who need the extra
paid time off for family or medical emergencies. Vice President Bush says if he is
elected his administration will "explore carefully the idea of extending to children
of federal employees the law allowing students who reach the age of 22 to
continue their health insurance coverage under certain conditions." The Thrift
Investment Plan's G-Fund has an 8.875 percent interest rate this month down from
9.25 percent last month. Employees under FERS can invest in the G-Fund or in
stock and bond funds. Federal clerks defend their honor and work ethic against
charges they are,rude, inefficient clock watchers (The Washington Post'.
FAA ASKS FOR PAY RAISE FOR O'HARE CONTROLLERS---To make Chicago
controller jobs more attractive, the FAA is discussing with OPM the possibility of
offering substantially higher pay to controllers willing to transfer to Chicago's
O'Hare International Airport. Transportation Secretary lames Burnley said that
such an-incentive program, if approved, probably also would he used in other high-
cost areas such as New York and Los Angeles The Wall Street Journal'.
OFF-KEY REFORM---Commenting on newly proposed "whistlehlower protection"
legislation, former OPM director Don Devine says "The bottom-line fact in
government is that there are few incentives for a manager to make the tough
decisions necessary to achieve mission at a reasonable cost. It is easier to let
inefficiencies accumulate" (The Washington Times).
OF INTEREST---Busy as you are, consider the business of busyness (The ''.'all
Street journal!...
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OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20415
Practical el or -. W ork and Fa l Issues . .
Call
.
18? : ? : 1-8006847-5437
Monday-Friday 7 am - 10 pm (Eastern Time)
Saturday, 9 am ? 4 pm (Eastern Time)
(Hearing Impaired Call 1-800-346-9188)
You may use the services'as often as needed. While you still
have to pay for your own care arrangements, your employer pays
for the information and referral assistance.
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