ECONOMIC POLICY COUNCIL MEETING -- SEPTEMBER 24, 1985 2:00 P.M. -- ROOSEVELT ROOM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 46
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 10, 2010
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: September 23, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

EXECUTIVE. SECRETARIAT
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CABINET AFFAIRS STAFFING MEMORAII
Date: 9/23/85 Number: 31699RrA Due By:
Subject: Economic Policy Council Meeting -- September 24, 1985
2:00 P.M. -- Roosevelt Room
Action
ALL CABINET MEMBERS ^
Vice President
State
Treasury
Defense
Justice
Interior
Agriculture
Commerce
Labor
HHS
HUD
Transportation
Energy
Chief of Staff
Education
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THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
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CEO
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OSTP
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DPC
EPC
GSA
EPA
NASA
OPM
VA
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REMARKS:
The Economic Policy Council will meet on Tuesday,
September 24, at 2:00 P.M. in the Roosevelt Room.
The agenda and background paper are attached.
Alfred H. Kingon ^ Don Clarey
Cabinet Secretary ^ Rick Davis
456-2823 ^ Ed Stucky
(Ground Floor, West Wing)
Associate Director
Office of Cabinet Affairs
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MEMORANDUM FOR THE ECONOMIC POLICY COUNCIL
FROM: EUGENE J. McALLISTERC`
SUBJECT: Agenda and Paper for the September 24 Meeting
The agenda and paper for the September 24 meeting of the
Economic Policy Council are attached. The meeting is scheduled
for 2:00 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room.
The single agenda item is the Multifiber Arrangement. At
its July 19 meeting, the Council asked that the Working Group on
the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) prepare a paper presenting
options regarding the U.S. position in the upcoming negotiations
for a successor arrangement to the present MFA, scheduled to
expire July 31, 1986. Since informal discussions to begin the
negotiating process will take place in mid-October, the Council
needs to address now the position the U.S. should take in the
negotiations. The paper reviews the current program, economic
factors, and domestic and international political considerations.
It also presents several options on possible general negotiating
positions for Council consideration.
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September 24, 1985
2:00 p.m.
Roosevelt Room
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FROM: Charles R. Carlisle, Chairman
working Group of the Economic Policy Council
on the Multifiber Arrangement
Issue for Decision
The EPC decided on July 19 that the United States should enter
into negotiations for a successor arrangement to the inter-
national Multifiber Arrangement (MFA), which expires July 31, 1986,
and that the negotiations should be carried out as expeditiously as
possible. The United States has stated this position at a GATT
Textiles Committee meeting, and informal discussions to begin the
negotiating process will take place in mid-October. The fundamental
issue is:
Should the United States try to negotiate a more
restrictive MFA and bilateral textiles agreements,
maintain the present level of protection, or agree
to relax protection in world textile and apparel
trade?
Options
(NOTE: Actions listed under each option are illustrative;
further work on one or more of the options will be
necessary after a first EPC discussion.)
Option 1: Continuing As We Are.
Possible elements would include extending the present MFA for,
say, four to five years, continuing bilateral agreements along
present lines, setting quotas on a product-by-product, country-
by-country basis, continuing to exempt imports from the
developed countries (except Japan), and continuing not to grant
special treatment to apparel imports from the CBI nations.
The exporting nations would be displeased by lack of future
liberalization, and there would be increasing friction as the
United States establishes quotas on new entrants into its markets
and the poorest nations. The domestic industries would see the
decision as the continuation of what they regard as a failed
policy and would intensify their efforts to obtain protectionist
legislation.
EXT BYND 6 YEARS bY_
REASON
 Option 2: Liberalization.
Possible elements would include extending the MFA essentially
along present lines but possibly including a "fail-safe" provision
allowing importing nations to preserve some part of their domestic
industries; granting more liberal terms in bilaterals and setting
quotas; according more liberal terms to apparel imports from the
CBI nations; continuing to exempt imports from the developed
countries, except possibly Japan; lowering textile and apparel
tariffs in the New Round negotiations; and tying liberalization
to market opening and the ending of subsidies by the exporting
nations, especially the NICs.
Imports could rise in some years at faster rates than in 1983-84.
Foreign governments generally would welcome the U.S. decision (but
many exporting nations would fear loss of market share). Chances
for a successful New Round would be improved. Consumers would
benefit, but domestic industries would be incensed. Congressional
reaction would be strongly critical.
Option 3: More Protection.
Possible elements would include negotiating a new MFA essentially
along present lines, but extending coverage to ramie (flax-like),
silk, linen and other fibers not now covered, and explicitly
recognizing importing nations' rights to hold import growth to
low levels; lowering import growth under bilaterals; re-opening
bilaterals this fall with major suppliers (e.g., Taiwan, Hong
Kong, South. Korea and possibly China), to freeze or cut back imports
from those nations; restraining imports from the EEC and other
developed nations; instituting some form of import licensing to
reduce quota evasion and provide early warning of import surges;
and self-initiating fair trade actions.
This might hold total import growth to 5 percent or less (compared
to 83-84 growth of 25-32 percent). Foreign nations would be
extremely displeased, and the United States would have to expend
considerable capital internationally to negotiate a more restrictive
MFA and bilaterals. New Round would be endangered. Domestic
industries would be pleased, but still skeptical about the
Administration's real intentions. U.S. retailers would be very
critical and consumers would be hurt more than they already are.
say, years five to ten; first period: adopt many of Option 3
elements; apply more restrictions against apparel, but grant more
Option 4: More Protection, Followed by Liberalization.
Possible elements would include negotiating an MFA for say
8-10
years, with explicit commitments requiring both importing
and
exporting nations to accord gradually more liberal treatment in,
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liberal treatment to apparel imports from CBI nations; act
against imports from developed countries on a selective basis;
might negotiate an MFA and bilaterals which would protect against
import surges in broad categories of goods. Second period:
lower tariffs in New Round negotiations; progressively relax
quotas or antisurge provisions; tie liberalization to relaxation
of restrictive and subsidy actions by exporting nations,
especially NICs.
Might be possible to hold annual import quota to 5 percent range
in first period. Exporting nations probably would accept a more
restrictive MFA and bilaterals provided there were explicit and
firm commitments to phase down protection later. -Negotiations,
however, would be difficult. Retailers would go along, but it is
difficult to predict domestic industries' reaction. They might
say this option would only postpone their demise, but they might
accept it if they thought the chances of the quota bill's
becoming law were not good.
Option 5:. Substitution of MFN Tariffs for Quotas
(see Treasury paper at Tab B).
This option concerns the means of protection and could be
compatible with any of the first four. Possible elements
would include negotiating changes in the MFA permitting tariffs
to be raised (now prohibited by MFA); negotiating changes in
bilaterals; substituting tariffs for quotas, possibly only on
some items (probably would have to be raised to about 25 percent
for textiles, 50 percent for apparel to give protection
equivalent to that afforded now); possibly granting GSP treatment.
Would eliminate uncertainties caused by quota setting and
administrative problems in determining country of origin and
transshipments. Incentive for foreign producers to upgrade their
production would no longer exist. According to CEA, U.S.
Government revenues might rise by over $3 billion annually;
a portion might be used for adjustment assistance. However,
legislation, which probably would be "Christmas treed," would
be necessary. Would be necessary to negotiate compensation on
GATT-bound tariffs, and prospects for the New Round could be
damaged. Many developing nations would dislike the proposal
because they would fear loss of market share to the most
efficient producers, e.g., China. The domestic industries
would oppose, arguing that substitution was tantamount to
liberalization and that some exporting nations would set prices
at whatever levels were necessary to sell in the U.S. market.
Other Key Questions
In considering the options certain key questions should be kept
in mind:
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1. Should there be a net change in protection? Should
protection be scaled back over time or after some
period of time?
2.. Should tariffs be substituted for quotas?
3. Should the United States continue to control imports on
a country-by-country, product-by-product basis, or seek
more comprehensive controls?
4. Should there be fewer, broader product categories, instead
of the present 109?
5. How long should a new MFA last? ,
6. What should be done about certain categories of countries:
a. Industrial countries, whose exports the United
States does not now control?
b. CBI nations, which would benefit from more liberal
treatment of their apparel exports?
c. The poorest nations, which have difficulty expanding
their exports because of other countries' large quotas?
d. Major suppliers -- Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, China
and Japan -- whose large quotas severely restrict
the trade of other nations?
7. Should the United States seek controls on fibers not covered
by the present MFA -- ramie,' linen, jute and silk?
8. Should an import licensing system be devised to try to
reduce circumvention and fraud and give advance warning
of import surges?
9. Should adjustment assistance be provided if import
protection is reduced?
Discussion
Current Program
The textile and apparel industries are the most protected
U.S. manufacturing industries. In addition to an extensive
quota system, there are high tariffs averaging 13 percent on
textiles and 25 percent on apparel. Increasingly restrictive
programs have been in force since 1961.
CONFIDENTIAL
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Currently, the United States has some 1,300 restraints on
products from 37 countries; 300 have been added since 1983.
About two-thirds of apparel and one-third of nonapparel imports
are currently under restraint. If quotas cannot be negotiated,
the United States may impose them unilaterally, provided there
is market disruption.
Items made wholly or partially of ramie, jute, linen and
silk are not controlled. Imports of those items are rising
rapidly. Domestic manufacturers also claim that circumvention
and fraud plague the program despite the rules of origin
promulgated in final form last April.
Neither the United States nor the EEC restrict each
other's trade under a "gentlemen's agreement," unwritten and
apparently dating back to the 1960s. Japan is the only
developed country whose trade the United States does control.
Imports rose 25 percent in 1983, and 32 percent in 1984.
They were down 1 percent in the first seven months of 1985,
but were up 36 percent from the EEC. The EEC as a group is now
this country's largest supplier of nonapparel. Import penetra-
tion is 33 percent in apparel, 11 percent in nonapparel. U.S.
exports have been declining sharply since 1980.
Domestic production of apparel and nonapparel declined
slightly over the 1972-84 period while consumption grew about
1 percent a year.
Apparel production is concentrated in New York, Pennsylvania,
California and North Carolina. Productivity has been increasing
faster than for all manufacturing, but no technological break-
through is in sight which will enable U.S. manufacturers to meet
foreign competition without protection.
The textile industry is mainly in the Carolinas and Georgia.
Plant closings have accelerated this year, but some of the
plants are old.' Total job loss in the last two and one-half
years has been about 33,Q00, about 5 percent of the textile
labor force. Productivity has been rising much faster than in
all manufacturing, but the industry is still labor intensive.
Profits, which have fluctuated, grew about 22 percent in
current dollars from 1979 to 1984.
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The U.S. manmade fiber industry is very efficient but
claims that it is losing its domestic customer base while
confronting many foreign trade barriers. U.S. fiber production
is stagnant while that in the Far East is expanding rapidly.
The textile and apparel industries provide about 1.8 million
jobs, many to minority members, women and poorly educated people.
Employment has declined by over 500,000 since 1974. About
one-quarter of this decline has occurred in the last year.
The CEA estimates that the U.S. quotas and tariffs cost
consumers about $39 billion a year and preserve about one-fourth
to one-third of the jobs. That means each job saved costs
$65,000-87,000 a year.
USDA believes that additional restrictions on U.S. cotton
textile and apparel imports, if all other factors remained the
same, would increase returns to U.S. cotton producers. However,
retaliation by foreign buyers switching to other sources of
supply would be likely to more than offset these gains.
Domestic Political Situation
The domestic industries claim that nothing less than a quota
bill will satisfy them. They accuse the Administration of failing
to "enforce" the MFA and of failing to carry out a Presidential
commitment to relate import growth to the growth of the domestic
market. Despite the intensity of feeling, moderate industry
leaders might settle for a much more restrictive MFA and bilateral
agreements that would hold annual import growth to around 5
percent. Importers and retailers could accept a more restrictive,
comprehensive program in return for greater certainty, "contract
sanctity," and an eventual MFA phase-out.
International Political Situation
Developing exporting nations are very unhappy about current
U.S. actions, including this country's discrimination in favor
of developed cotIntries, and are calling for an end to the MFA.
They are prepared, however, to negotiate. About half of their
textile and apparel exports come to the United States. Japan
and the EEC are talking vaguely about a more liberal MFA;
Canada wants a more restrictive arrangement because it too has
experienced rapid import growth.
Foreign Trade Barriers
Both a Commerce study and one done for the domestic industry
leave little doubt that exporting nation governments give
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substantial protection to their markets and also intervene in
various/ways to assist their domestic industries. The domestic
industry claims that both Japan and the EEC more effectively
protect their markets than does the United States, the EEC
through more restrictive bilateral agreements, and Japan by
nontariff barriers and informal arrangements.
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CONFIDENTIAL. SENSITIVE
Tables 1 and 2, attached, present data on U.S. imports of cotton,
wool and man-made fiber textiles and apparel from 1972 through
July 1985, measured in square yards equivalent (SYE). Tables
2 and 3 present import data by various foreign suppliers from
1980 to June 1986. Tables 5-7 present data on textile and apparel
imports not subject to the MFA, such as silk, linen and ramie.
The tables show that:
Imports accounted for 33 percent of the U.S. apparel
market in 1984, 11 percent of the non-apparel market.
While the long-term trend of imports-has been up,
imports have increased much more rapidly in the 1980-84
period, about 13 percent a year for apparel, 26 percent
annually for non-apparel. Moreover, imports increased
at a 25 percent rate in 1983 and 32 percent in 1984.
They declined 1.3 percent in the first seven months
of 1985.
-- Imports from the three largest suppliers of apparel
and non-apparel products have grown less rapidly than
from other suppliers, because of very restrictive
growth rates negotiated on many products in 1982.
Imports from those countries, however, accounted for
over 23 percent of the total growth of imports in
the 1982-84 period because of diversification and
the full use of large quotas.
-- Imports from the EEC, spurred by the dollar's rise,
have grown very rapidly in the last several years,
and are still increasing while imports from "controlled"
sources are leveling off. The EEC countries, taken
as a group, are now this country's largest supplier
of non-apparel. Italy accounts for 41 percent of
the EEC's non-apparel exports to this country, 52
percent of the apparel exports.
Although exact figures are not available, a sizeable share of
U.S. imports. of textile and apparel products are imported by
the domestic industry. One industry source has estimated that
25 percent of apparel imports are received by U.S. apparel manufac-
turers, mainly to mix with lines produced domestically to keep
costs down. Apparel producers are the main importers of yarns
and fabrics, partially to reduce their costs, but also because
domestic mills very often will refuse to produce short-run fashion
fabrics. Domestic textile mills, however, also import a significant
proportion of fabrics from China and other suppliers. More
than half of U.S. fabric imports are unfinished cloth, which
is dyed and/or printed by converters and U.S. mills and sold
to apparel manufacturers.
CONFIDENTIAL SENSITIVE
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Table 8 shows that U.S. import growth was much greater than
that of either the EEC or Japan in the 1982-84 period, but that
imports have a larger market share in those countries than in
the U.S.
Table 9 shows that while both apparel and non-apparel imports
have been increasing rapidly in value since 1980, exports have
been declining sharply. Table 10, which presents data on U.S.
exports by destination, shows that the fall-off in exports apparently
was caused by the rising dollar. For example, U.S. exports
to the EC declined 62 percent from 1980 to 1984.
Domestic Industries
Table 11 presents volume data on apparent domestic consumption
and production for both the non-apparel and apparel industries
for the period 1972 - 1984. This table shows that:
-- Consumption has increased about 1 percent a year,
although apparel consumption grew 5 percent a year
from 1980 to 1984.
-- Domestic production has declined slightly over the
entire period.
Apparel industry. The apparel industry has about 22,000
shops and plants. Ownership is characterized by a small number
of large multi-plant manufacturers engaged in manufacturing
of many kinds of apparel and by thousands of small firms -that
go in and out of business constantly. For this reason there
is no reliable way of estimating the number of firms or plants
that have been closed by imports. U.S. apparel production is
concentrated in New York, Pennsylvania, California and North
Carolina (Table 12).
Capital expenditure estimates also are not available for the
apparel. industry, but, according to a Commerce study, productivity
increased by an annual average of 2.5 percent from 1974 through
1982, compared to 1.7 percent for all manufacturing. Industry
leaders claim that they are doing all they can to make their
operations more efficient, but that there is no way they can
offset labor costs that, for example, in the Far East, often
are less than $1 an hour (compared to over $5 in the U.S., exclusive
of fringes).
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Most industry leaders also say that no technological
breakthrough is in sight (say, over the next ?10 years) that
will enable U.S. manufacturers to meet foreign competition without
protection. About $7 million is being spent annually by industry
and the U.S. Government to fund research at an MIT laboratory
on apparel manufacture automation. The Japanese, with substantial
government support, are spending $50-60 million a year for research
on a robotized, workerless apparel factory, which might be opera-
tional by 1990.
Textile industry. The U.S. textile industry has about
6,000 plants, mainly in the Carolinas and Georgia (Table 12).
Some firms are publicly owned but many are family owned.
An average of 47 textile plants closed their doors in both 1983
and 1984; in the first half of 1985, 48 have done so. According
to the American Textile Manufacturers Institute, these plant
closings, plus lay-offs at plants which have remained open,
resulted in a job loss of over 33,000 in the 2-1/2 year period,
about five percent of the textile industry labor force (Table
13). It is impossible to say how many plants have closed because
of import pressures, either direct or on their customers the
(apparel manufacturers), and how many have closed simply because
of modernization programs.
Textile mill owners say that many of their plants are as modern
as any in the world. Textile mill capital expenditures have
averaged $1.5 2.0 billion a year since 1979, while productivity
grew at an average of 5.2 percent between 1974-82, about three
times the average for all manufacturing.
Textile mills remain labor intensive, however, with the fourth
lowest output per worker among U.S. industries. Moreover, with
labor costs averaging, say, about one-third of total manufacturing
costs at the mill, textile executives claim that they are unable
to offset foreign labor costs that may run as little as 25 cents
an hour in China.
Table 14 shows that textile corporate profits, which have fluctuated,
grew by 22 percent in current dollars from 1979 to 1984. Profits
almost doubled from 1982 to 1983 and increased again, marginally,
last year. Profits usually run from two to three percent of
sales and eight to 12 percent of equity.
Fiber Industry. The U.S. fiber industry consists of about
15 companies, mainly subsidiaries of large, U.S. and foreign
owned chemical companies. These firms, e.g,., DuPont, have led
the world in developing and commercializing new synthetic fibers.
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CONFIDENTIAL. SENSITIVE
U.S. fiber producers say that they are as efficient as any producers
in the world, but that they are badly disadvantaged because
their domestic customer base is shrinking while foreign trade
barriers seriously hamper export sales. Far Eastern apparel
and textile producing countries have been integrating backward.
For example, Taiwan (whose producers, U.S. manufacturers claim,
are subsidized) has increased its capacity significantly, becoming
not only self-sufficient but a substantial exporter of low-cost
fiber to offer in Asian markets. China and Korea have also
increased their fiber capacity dramatically. Table 15, attached,
gives fiber capacity data for the U.S. and principal foreign
countries since 1976.
Four U.S. fiber plants have closed in the last 18 months, and
a fifth is scheduled to close. No new plants have opened and
none is planned.
USDA believes that additional restrictions on U.S. cotton textile
and apparel imports may result in a net loss for U.S. cotton
farmers if foreign nations retaliate.
In the 1982-84 period, according to USDA, about 25 percent of
U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports consisted of U.S. cotton.
With foreign cotton production accelerating rapidly, the proportion
of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports comprised of U.S. cotton
could drop from about 25 percent to 15 percent in 1986. This
is especially likely if the U.S. minimum loan rate continues
to support U.S. cotton prices above foreign prices.
If U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports were to decrease,
U.S. mill use of domestically grown cotton (cotton imports are
minimal) would increase. That gain would be partially offset
by a decline in U.S. cotton exports, so that a 10 percent decline
in U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports might cause total
use of U.S. cotton to increase 100,000 - 200,000 bales a year
-- about 1.0 percent of the U.S. cotton crop. USDA
believes, however, that the loss of goodwill and possible trade
retaliation could more than wipe out that gain.
Labor Force and Job Toss
Table 16 shows that there are approximately 1.9 million textile
and apparel workers. Table 14, attached, gives data on the
characteristics of the labor force in the textile and apparel
industries. This table shows that in both industries:
-- The percentage of minority workers is high.
CONFIDENTIAL SEN ITIVE
 CONFIDENTIAL SENSITIVE
The percentage of female workers is high.
-- The percentage of poorly educated workers is high.
-- Workers receive an average wage well below the average
of manufacturing workers throughout U.S. industry.
In short, the textile and apparel industries afford a large
number of entry-level jobs to women and minority members who
have difficulty finding jobs elsewhere. Moreover, many apparel
and textile plants are in small communities where alternative
employment is scarce. Apparel plant jobs may help attract illegal
immigrants to large cities.
Table 16 gives annual employment data in the textile and apparel
industries since 1972. The table shows that:
Apparel and non-apparel employment has declined by
over 500,000 jobs since 1974, and that about half
of that decline has occurred since 1981.
Until 1980 employment was declining about 1.4 percent
a year; since then the rate of decline has increased
to 2.1 percent.
The Council of Economic Advisors has estimated that if all U.S. tex-
tile and apparel tariffs and quotas were eliminated, American
consumers would save $39 billion a year, about $640 a year for
a family of four. The CEA also has estimated that if just quotas
were eliminated, consumers would gain $21 billion annually.
If the textile quota bill now before the Congress were to become
law, it would cost consumers an addition $14 billion a year,
according to CEA estimates.
 U $. IMPORTS OF APPAREL
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
Yearly
$ Change
Import Share
of U.S. market
1972 2,226
17.4
1973 2,090
- 6.2
17.3
1974 1,937
- 7.3
16.8
1975 2,077
+ 7.2
18.6
1976 2,449
+17.9
20.5
1977 2,466
+ 0.7
19.5
1978 2,905
+17.5
22.7
1979 2,671
- 8.0
21.7
1980 2,884
1
+ 7.9
24.7
981 3,123
+ 8.3
25.6
1982 3,373
+ 8.0
26.9
1983 3,862
1
+14.5
27.7
984 4,703
Compound Annual Change:
+21.7
33.0
1972-1984
+ 6.4
1980-1984
Jan.-July
+13.0
1984
2,905
1985
3,004
+ 3.4
Note: Imports are for cotton, wool and man-made fiber. Excluded
are from 1972-1984 figures are certain down-filled apparel items
which were not included in U.S. import statistics until 1982
(1984 imports equaled 11.6 million square yards). U.S. market
is production of all fibers minus exports plus imports.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
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U.S. IMPORTS nF NON-APPAREL
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
Imports of
Yarns,Fabrics
& Made -Ua Articles
Yearly
8 Change
Imports of
Made-Up
Articles O
l
Import Share
n
y
of Market j/
1972
4,010
384
2.9
1973
3,035
-24.3
358
2.7
1974
1
2,474
-18.5
315
2.5
975
1976
1,750
-29.3
228
1.9
1
2,537
+45.0
329
2.5
977
197
2,512
- 0.1
328
2.4
8
197
2,835
+12.9
398
2.8
9
1980
1,968
-31.3
413
3.0
1981
2,000
+ 1.6
403
3.1
198
2,639
+32.0
490
3.9
2
1983
2,553
+ 3.3
579
4.9
1984
3,536
+38.5
799
6.2
(8.4)*
5,063
+43.1
1,238
9.0
(1l.4)*
Compound Annual Change:
1972-1984
+ 2.0
+ 10.2
1980-1984
+26.1
+ 32.4
Jan.-Th v
1984 3,378
980
1985 3,200
- 5.3
1,053 (+
7.5)
L Market share for non-apparel is for made-up textile products
other than apparel; such as soft-sided luggage, draperies,
sheets, etc.
Note: Imports are for cotton, wool and man-made fiber. Excluded
from 1972-1984 figures are certain man-made fiber products which
were not included in U.S. import statistics until 1983 (1984
imports equaled 37.4 million square yards). U.S. market is
production of all fibers (including imports of yarns and fabrics
consumed by domestic manufactures of the end product) minus
exports plus imports.
* Import share including certain man-made fiber products not
added in statistics until 1983.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 APPAREL 1/
U.S. General Imports
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
Change
Year End
4
Change
% of
Growth
1983
1984
2/
85
18
_
3-7/85
183-7/85
2,884
3,123
3,373
16.9
3,862
4,703
4,800
+ 24.3
100
0
MAJOR SUPPLIERS
Taiwan
Hong Kong
2,106
670
628
2,296
654
656
2,522
745
690
19.8
11.1
9
8
2,847
858
3,098
927
3,060
894
+ 7.5
+ 4.2
.
22.7
3.8
Korea
494
583
572
.
15
9
760
814
788
+ 3.7
3.0
China
Philippines
166
148
241
1
355
.
113.5
623
428
681
442
659
374
+ 5.8
- 12
7
3.8
62
161
8.8
177
234
350
.
+ 41.5
---
18
4
MAJOR DEBTORS
Brazil
815
5
933
4
907
5
11.3
16
8
1,021
1,294
1,411
+ 38.2
.
41.6
Mexico
92
82
56
.
-39
2
9
33
42
+366.7
3.5
Korea
494
583
.
60
86
103
+ 71
7
4
6
Argentina
?
?
572
?
15.9
N/A
623
?
681
659
.
+ 5.8
.
3.8
Indonesia
5
?
?
N/A
Venezuela
?
18
?
39
?
607.3
N/A
46
129
142
+208.7
---
10.2
Philippines
148
'
N/A
Egypt
2
162
2
161
1
8.8
-50
2
177
234
350
+ 41.5
18.4
India
69
.
'
N/A
Nigeria
?
82
?
73
'
5.1
N/A
106
?
131
?
115
'
+ 8.5
1.0
N/A
---
ASEAN
276
314
360
30.5
411
661
736
+ 79.1
34
6
CBI
117
113
110
-6.1
127
153
186
+ 46.6
.
6.3
VERY POOREST 2/
58
53
56
-2.8
65
93
163
+150.6
10.4
OECD (except Japan)
Italy
47
16
41
13
45
-4.7
70 '
157
206
+193
9
14
5
Spain
2
2
13
-14.0
20
56
65
.
+225
0
.
4
8
Portugal
3
2
0.9
3
4
4
.
+ 33
0
.
+?
3
3
-11
5
.
Greece
3
'
.
3
13
22
+633
3
2
0
Turkey
?
?
1
-63.4
'
4
7
.
N/A
.
??
'
42.6
4
15
30
+650.0
2.8
' Less than 1 million square yards.
" Less than 1 percent.
U Cotton, wool and man-made fiber. Excludes certain apparel products
not added to the statistical data base until 1982.
2/ Bangladesh, Haiti and Nepal.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 NON-APPAREL 1/
U.S. General Imports
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
198
Change
Year End
H
Cha
% of
0
-.1981 .
1987
80-82
nge
Growth
1981
1984
7/85
183-7/85
183-7/85
2,000
2,639
2,253
12.6
3,536
5,063
5,008
+ 41.6
100.0
MAJOR SUPPLIERS
904
1,276
1,970
117
8
1
834
Japan
378
.
,
2,375
2,308
+ 25.9
32
2
Italy
109
416
181
437
195
15.5
79
0
572
2
599
568
- 0.6
.
N/A
Taiwan
112
166
728
.
548
8
56
31
450
476
+ 85.8
14.9
China
159 .
319
332
.
109
7
9
355
399
436
+ 36.8
7.9
Korea
147
1
.
522
448
+ 26
2
6
3
94
277
89.3
332
405
380
.
+ 14.4
.
3.3
MAJOR DEBTORS
382
474
519
35
9
771
Brazil
12
62
74
.
492
1
12
1,106
988
+ 28.4
14.7
Mexico
42
8
.
4
162
145
+ 16
9
1
4
Korea
147
4
194
59
277
41.5
89
3
126
332
186
132
.
+ 4.5
.
??
Argentina
?
4
11
.
3
916
6
8
405
380
+ 14.4
3.3
Indonesia
2
7
5
,
.
177
7
38
2
1
- 87.5
N/A
Venezuela
*
.
140
126
+231
6
6
0
Phil
-
?
N/A
?
?
.
.
ippines
Egypt
15
83
16
68
10
23
-30.8
-72
0
14
61
7
3
9
N/A
- 35.7
??
N/A
India
82
75
60
.
-27
1
68
82
39
- 36.0
N/A
Nigeria
?
?
?
.
N/A
122
153
+125.0
5.8
ASEAN
75
127
112
49.2
137
293
308
N/A
+124.8
N/A
11.6
CBI
10
11
17
70.4
18
38
31
+ 70.5
??
VERY POOREST 21
1
2
5
271.5
2
3
3
+ 85.7-
??
OECD (except Japan)
501
604
648
29
4
Italy
109
181
195
.
79
0
886
256
1,548
1,655
+ 86.8
52.2
Spain
10
.
450
476
+ 85.8
14
9
19
16
54
3
51
.
Portugal
14
.
87
98
+ 92.2
3
2
14
18
34
1
25
.
Greece
*
.
45
49
+ 96
0
1
6
1
?
-36.8
1
2
.
.
Turkey
5
3
5
-0.5
4
48
5
60
+500.0
+1,400.0
??
3.8
? Less than 1 million square yards.
?? Less than 1 percent.
Cotton, wool and man-made fiber. Excludes certain apparel products
not added to the statistical data base until 1982.
2/ Bangladesh, Haiti and Nepal.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
"NON-MFA" APPAREL IMPORTS
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
8
Change
% of
Growth
7Z85
'63-7/85
'
83-7/85
WORLD
79
252
437
BIG THREE*
65
211
350
+ 436.2
79
6
Hong Kong
43
109
196
+ 356.8
.
42
7
Korea
15
81
112
+ 674.9
.
27
1
Taiwan
8
22
41
+ 429.8
.
9.2
China
I
6
17
47
+ 653.3
11.5
taly
2
6
8
+ 285.2
1.7
* Three largest suppliers of MFA textile and apparel products
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
SILK APPAREL IMPORTS
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
1983
1984
7/85
8
'83Change
-7/85
% of
Growth
'83-7/85
WORLD
67
136
135
+ 103.1
100.0
BIG THREE*
Hon
K
55
115
112
+ 102.8
83.8
g
ong
Korea
42
70
64
+ 54.0
32.4
Taiw
12
42
45
+ 266.3
48.5
an
1
4
3
+ 188.2
2.9
China
It
l
.6
11
13
+ 112.0
10.3
a
y
2
4
4
+ 124.9
2.9
OTHER "NON-MFA" APPAREL IMPORTS I/
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
8
% of
1983
1984
7/85
Change
'83-7/85
Growth
'8
3-7/85
WORLD
12
116
302
+2,334.5
100.0
BIG THREE*
10
96
238
+2,254.9
78.6
ong Kong
Korea
1
39
132
+9,314:9
45.2
Taiwan
2
39
67
+2,964.0
22.4
7
18
38
+ 488.3
10.7
China
.3
6
34
+12,681
12
0
Macau
Ital
0
.8
4
N/A
.
1.4
y
.4
2
3
+8,240.0
0.8
* Three largest suppliers of MFA textile and apparel products
J Would most likely be vegetable fibers other than cotton, such
as linen and ramie.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
NON-APPAREL IMPORTS OF ALL FIRERS
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
8
Change
% of
Growth
1984
2/85
'83-7/85
'
__
83-7/85
WORLD
5,278
7,064
6,638
+ 25.8
100.0
Japan
B
608
642
622
+ 2
2
1
0
razil
669
891
562
.
- 16
0
.
China
377
561
503
.
+ 33.5
N/A
9.2
BIG THREE*
T
i
1,168
1,415
1,280
+ 9.5
8
2
a
wan
K
571
681
610
+ 19
3
.
2
9
orea
H
385
490
448
.
+ 16.3
.
4
6
ong Kong
212
244
222
+ 4.4
.
0.7
OECD (x Japan)
It
l
1,087
1,822
1,920
+ 76.7
60
9
a
y
G
269
471
494
+ 83
7
.
16
ermany
C
d
181
311
335
.
+ 84.5
.4
11
3
ana
a
U
it
d
189
334
264
+ 40.0
.
13
8
n
e
Kingdom
101
169
217
+115.1
.
8.4
* Three largest suppliers of MFA textile and apparel products
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
APPAREL AND NON-APPAREL IMPORTS
(Billions of Dollars)
Country/
Imports Share
Of Mark
U.S.
$ 10.5
$ 12.4
$ 17
2
16.3%
18.3%
.
22.9%
EEC
$ 14.3
$ 13
9
37
6%
.
$ 14.4
.
39.0%
N/A
Japan
$ 2.8
$ 2.4
$ 3.2
19.7%
19.9%
N/A
Canada
$ 1.9
$ 2.3
$ 2.7
Sources: Import Values: GATT Doc. COM.TEX/W/167
Market Shares: U.S. - Department of Commerce
EEC & Japan - Obtained by USTR Geneva
Note: While market shares in this table are based on fiber
consumption of U.S. mills and the basis for calculation of market
shares in tables 1 & 2 is square yards equivalent, both show
essentially the same results.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
Table 9
U.S. APPAREL & NON-APPAREL TRADE
OF ALL FIBERS
Apparel
(Millions of Dollars)
Non-Apparel
Trade Balan
Imports
Expo=
Imports
Exports
1972
1
1,718
198
1,497 745
-1'
520
-752
973
197
1,955
229
1,541 1,164
,
-1
726
-378
4
1
2,095
333
1,597 1,704
,
-1
763
+107
975
1
2,318
341
1,212 1,533
,
-1
978
+321
976
197
3,257
434
1,626 1,855
,
-2,822
+229
7
3,650
524
1,765 1,857
-3
126
+ 93
1978
1
4,833
548
2,212 2,073
,
-4
286
-139
979
1
5,015
'
772
2,214 3,029
,
-4
243
+815
980
19
6,142
1,001
2,645 3,458
,
-5
141
+813
81
198
7,253
1,032
3,221 3,474
,
-6
221
+254
2
19
7,888
775
2,963. 2,650
,
-7
113
-313
83
198
9,308
664
3,399 2,241
,
-8
644
-1
158
4
12,963
638
4,790 2,246
,
-12,325
,
-2,544
1984
198
7,566
380
2,843 1,322
-7
186
-1
522
5
8,228
329
2,977 1,291
,
-7,899
,
-1,686
Apparel & Non-Apparel
Imports
1972
3,215
943
-2
272
1973
3,496
1,393
,
-2
103
1974
3,692
2,037
,
-1
656
1975
3,530
1,874
,
-2
594
1976
4,883
2,289
,
-1
894
1977
5,415
2,381
,
-3
034
1978
7,045
2,621
,
-4
424
1979
7,229
3,801
,
-3
428
1980
8,787
4,459
,
-4
328
1981
10,474
4,506
,
-5
968
1982
10,051
3,425
,
-7
426
1983
1
12,707
2,905
,
-9
802
984
Jan.-
,ty
17,753
2,884
,
-14,869
1984
1
10,409
1,702
-8
707
985
11,205
1,620
,
-9,585
Source: U.S. Department of
Commerce
Imports: 1972-1979
Customs
Value
1980-Present
C.I.F.
Value
 us exports of textiles and apparel
U.S. domestic exports
-----------------------------------lE.a.s._value~_So_dollatel_____-__-_-
i I 1 ,
Commodity/Country 1 1980 I 1981 .1 1982 1983 1 1984
--------------------------1--------------1--------------1--- -'L--------------1-------------
textile mill productsl I I t I J
Canada------------------I 579,209,846 I .623,504,947 I 473.8710069 1 547,070,654 1 509,825,487
Mexico------------------1 145,143,262 t 159,971,411 1 101,373,300 1 85,603,726 1 135,527.476
Saudi Arabia------------I 114,490.830 1 130.000.509.1 152.485,427 1 152,120,054 I 132.097,123
United Kingdom----------1 326.576,282 1 266,408,235 1 156.928.773 I 126.122,074 1 111,411,340
Pelsium and Luxembourg--I 164,814,975 I 123,993,628 1 90,364,342 1 103.340,001 I 99,493,703
1
1 t 1 t
Japan-------------------1 95,111,7111 1 106,060,235 1 86,427,714 I 90,120,256 1 94,699,201
Australia--------------- I 126,360,902 1 153,218,459 1 112,600,515 1 78.530,242 186,7200101
German9, West-----------I 117,979,266 1 95,697,453 1 71x539,864 1 61,549,285 I 68,000,221
Venezuela---------------I 69,445,615 I 80,018,893 t 88,768,192 1 39,483,360 1 53,396,143
China-------------------1 128,361,641 I 281,656,037 1 127.526,851 1 17,277,309 t 46,276,854
1 I I I
All other --------------- 11a590s058a133_11xd54a02As824_11i1B2&237x421_.L__2d2z542a3.45_1__ 409 046i03O
All countries---------13.457.552,533 13,474,154000 12,649,603,468 12.240.767,106 12.245,473,759
----------------------1--------------1- -1-------- -------------- 1-------------
Sourcet Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
09/04/95 us exports of textiles and apparel
U.S. domestic exports
------------------------------------ tE.a.s._ualue._io_do1Iacsl_____-----_
1 I I I i'
Commodity/Country 1 1980 I 1981 t 1982 1 1983 1 1904
- ----- 11 1 I i
-------------------1--------------1--------------1--------------1--------------1-------------
apparelt I I I I I
Mexico--------------- 1 153,604,618 1 188,251,175 t 119,8600518'1 95,096,669 I 110,353,751
Dominican Republic------I 50,017,540 1.. 66,049,402 1 64,343,101 1 72,4420250 1 78,192x145
Costa Rica--------------1 26,011,451 1 31,890,823 1 34.450,602 1 48,038,747 1 53.597,031
Haiti ------------------- I .24,579,060 1...24,898,731 I 22,363,215 1 37.334,036 1 44,152,670
Canada------------------1 51,267,371 1 59.419,626 1 52,239,196 1 54,352,427 1 41,762,717
I 1 .. .. t I 1
Japan-------------------1 61,513,356 1 62,065,333 t 43,717,764 t 25,485,011 1 22,650,396
United Kingdom ---------- t 83,117,073 1 05,915,149 I .44,009,417 t 32,211,560 1 20,929,320
Saudi Arabia------------1 11.558,204 I 15.208,302 1 20,036,771 1 20,551,988 t 19,441,0131
Germany, West-----------1 390674,890 1 .370050,508 1 28,752,947 1 23,416,066 1 17,272,945
Netherlands Antilles ---- I 53042.524 1 39,168,425 1 39x966,761 I 20,409,904 1 16,217,332
I 1 I. I 1
All other--------------- I__438s486i526_1__d22s351i583_1__3o5a162t2z7_1__23As333.631_1__20Sa32Ba732
All countries---------11,000,572,733 11r032069,057..1._774r907x969 1 663,742,169 t 637,097,035
------------=--------1=-------------1--------------1--------------1------- --1-------------
Sourcet Compiled. from official. statistics of.the U,B..Department of Commerce.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
APPAREL & NON-APPARH,
PRODUCTION AND APPARENT CONSUMPTION
(Millions of Square Yards Equivalent)
Apparel
Non-Apparel
Production
Apparent
Consume ion
Prod
ti
Apparent
uc
on
Consumption
1972
197
10,762
12,762
13,309
13,296
3
1974
10,244
12,110
13,778
13,475
197
9,910
11,545
13,329
12,740
5
1976
9,378
11,183
12,636
12,280
1977
9,790
11,937
13,619
13,264
1978
10,497
12,638
14,090
13,769
1
10,229
12,780
14,309
14,175
979
1980
10,131
12,311
14,198
13,815
19
9,840
11,688
13,413
12,951
81
1982
9,923
12,246
12,942
12,694
1983
9,729
12,593
11,875
11,810
19
10,135
13,548
12,937
13,468
84
10,086
14,327
13,150
14,124
Compound Annual Change:
1972-
1984
- 0.5%
+ 1.0%
- 0.1%
+ 0.5%
1980-
1984
+ 0.6%
+ 5.2%
- 0.6%
+ 2.2%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Note: Imports are for cotton, wool and man-made fiber. Apparent
consumption is production of all fibers minus exports plus
imports. Non-Apparel data is household and industrial made-up
items.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
Table 12
APPAREL AND NON-APPAREL
EMPLOYMENT TOP 10 STATES
THOUSAND WORKERS)
State Seasonally
State
1974
1984
A QR~tgat2nemploi
July 1985
North Carolina
349,700
312,500
- 37
200
5
6
Georgia
N
Y
182,800
180,300
,
- 2,500
.
7
ew
ork
S
253,400
177,100
- 76
300
.3
6
1
outh Carolina
198,900
162,700
,
- 36
200
.
6
7
Pennsylvania
209,200
148,000
,
- 61
200
.
7
8
California
117,900
123,100
,
+ 5
200
.
7
7
Tennessee
108,000
94,500
,
- 13
500
.
8
7
Alabama
101,400
94,400
,
- 7
000
.
9
-
Virginia
84,800
76,000
,
8
800
.3
5
8
New Jersey
91,100
66,500
APPAL
,
24,600
.
6.0
1974
1984
New York
199,900
145,100
- 54
800
Pennsylvania
149,800
113,900
,
- 35
900
California
93,000
109,000
,
+ 16
000
North Carolina
81,000
92,300
,
+ 11
300
Georgia
60,200
74,600
,
+ 14
200
Tenessee
74,000
68,900
,
- 5
100
Texas
73,500
62,000
,
- 11
500
7
7
Alabama
51,600
55,000
,
+ 2
400
.
New Jersey
62,500
51,500
,
- 11
000
South Carolina
44,700
49,700
,
+ 5,000
Non_ Apparel
1974
1984
North Carolina
281,200
220,200
- 61
000
South Carolina
154,200
113,000
,
- 41
200
Georgia
122,600
105,700
,
- 16
900
Virginia
45,000
43,400
,
- 1
600
Alabama
49,800
39,300
,
- 10
500
Pennsylvania
59,400
34,100
,
- 25
300
New York
T
53,500
32,000
,
- 21
500
enessee
33,700
25,600
,
- 8
100
Massachusetts
28,300
20,600
,
- 7
700
4
3
New Jersey
28,600
15,000
,
- 13,600
.
Source: Department of Labor
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 U.S. TEXTILE MILL OSINGS
Number
of Employees 8,650
Plants with
permanent
layoffs
Permanent
layoffs 1,160
Total permanent
layoffs 9,810
Source: American Textile Manufacturers Institute
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TEXTILE CORPORATE PROFITS
(Millions of Dollars)
Rrofits
Per
Currents
Constants
cent of
Sales
Percent of
Equity
1979
1
1,340
919
3.2
11
9
980
1981
977
611
2.2
.
8
4
1982
1,157
662
2.4
.
9
4
19
851
487
2.0
.
6
9
83
1984
1,599
896
3.3.
.
12
0
1,635
879
3.1
.
11.2
Compound Annual Change:
1979-
1984
+ 4.1
- 0.9
1980-
1984
+13.7
+ 9.5
Sources: Department of Commerce
Constant dollars are based on 1972 as published in
1985 ti S Ind strial OOttoolt
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WORLD MAN-MAADE FIBER PRODUCTION 5 APA
ITY
(Thousands of Metric Tons)
West
Eurooe
U.S_
Other
Amer-
ica's
Japan
China
Taiwan
Korea
1976
1977
2,303
2
2,746
541
1,204
52
272
309
8
601
1978
,155
2
3,037
589
1,280
60
364
350
,
9
149
1979
,344
3,218
638
1,376
137
464
433
,
10
034
1980
2,382
2
3,484
715
1,363
164
521
477
,
10
601
1981
,169
3,234
735
1,358
248
558
536
,
10
476
1982
2,297
2
3,276
681
1,327
347
587
610
,
10
827
1983
,176
2
3
2,603
669
1,304
369
631
612
,
10
140
1984
,
10
2
3,009
716
1,318
400
737
664
,
11
074
1985*
,422
2
2,936
786
1,369
701
866
746
,
11
893
1986*
,978
3
02
3,607
1,104
1,654
1,015
1,055
762
,
15
401
,
2
3,631
1,122
1,654
1,095
1,210
842
,
15,956
Compound
Annual
Change:
1976-
1984
+ 0.6
+ 0.8
+ 4.8
+ 1.6
1980-
1984
+ 2.3
- 2.4
+ 1.7
+ 0.2
1985-
-
1986 *
+ 1.5
+ 0.7
+ 1.6
0
* Producing capacity, prior to 1985 is actual production
Source: Textile Oroanon
Note: production if for noncellulosic yarns, monofilaments,
staple, tow and fiberfill.
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Table 16
TEXTILE AND APPAREL
TOTAL #MPLOYM#NT
(Thousand Workers)
1972
1
985.7
1,382
7
973
1,009
8
.
2,368
197
.
1,438
1
4
965.0
.
2,448
1
1
362
6
975
867.9
,
.
2,328
197
1
243
3
6
918.8
,
.
2,111
1
1
318
1
977
910
2
,
.
2,237
1
.
1
316
3
978
899.1
,
.
2,227
1
1
332
3
979
885
1
,
.
2,231
1
.
1,304
3
980
847.7
.
2,189
1
1
263
4
981
823
0
,
.
2,111
.
1
244
4
1982
749.4
,
.
2,067
1
1
161
1
983
741.3
,
.
1,911
19
1
163
4
84
746
0
,
.
1,905
July
.
1,196.6
1,943
1985 690.6
Compound Annual Change:
1972-
1984
- 2
3
.
1.2
1972-
1980
- 1
9
.
1.1
1980-
1984
3
1
.
1.3
Source: Textile Mill Products (SIC22)
Apparel & Other Textile Products (SIC23)
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EMPLOYEE CHARAGT RI$TI s
Male
Female
Percent High School
Graduates
Male
Female
Percent
Percent
Women
Black
79
P
14
ercent
(1984)
Hispanic
14
Median Age (Years)
1984 Average
Hourly Wage
(Source: Labor Department)
All Manufac tug
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Ayrothetical Rollback of U.S. it ana
asnrrel InMrta in 1984 Under S. 680
Percent Reduction of U.S. Imports of:
U.S. Imports Fran: Textilf-q
&
Apparel 11~ A rel
26
7
.
30.1 22.6
39A
52.4 28.6
Brazil
80.5
India
-
22.2
Pakistan
41.3
Thailand
64.4
Singapore
3.2
Indonesia
89.7
Philippin
es
21.2
Peoples'
Republic of China
59.1
Korea
35.1
Hong Kong
14.7
Taiwan
47.9
Japan
20.1
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kit
SUBSTITUTION OF TARIFFS FOR QUOTAS IN THE MAJOR MARKETS
The current system of discriminatory quo* provides a leaky
wall of protection for the domestic industry, The repair of which
involves repeated confrontations with some thirty supplying
nations and the associated uncertainty for producers both here
and in our LDC suppliers. The overall effect of this protection
is to promote production in relatively inefficient countries (the
U.S. and the EC) at the expense of the more efficient.
The protection which the domestic industry would receive from
tariffs would be more constant in terms 9f,pro4.t margin but
(possibly) less predictable in terms of the shsolute volume of
imports. (Either more of fewer import might result.) This
protection would be additive to the competitive effects of
currency movements, i.e., it could be either magnified or offset
by them. There would be greater reliability of supply for
importers/retailers and, as a result, possibly lower profit
margins. There would also be greater competition among foreign
suppliers leading to lower export prices, even from the most
efficient producers (who had been collecting the greatest quota
rents).
A likely summary of the outcome on the domestic ledger is
that while prices to producers would be generally unchanged,
retail prices could be somewhat lower, and collections of import
duties would go up quite substantially (i.e., by at least $ 1
billion). The national economic welfare would thus clearly be
increased. Likewise, the international political benefits,
especially in the longer run, would be considerable.
The technical problems posed by an orderly conversion to MFN
tariffs as the principal means of protection for the textile and
apparel industries in the developed world are substantial. As
the discussion below brings out, though, there are a number of
ways to approach these problems and the rewards appear sufficient
to make the undertaking worthwhile.
Current Levels ` Tariffs
Industrial country tariffs on textiles and apparel are
variable but generally much higher than on other goods. As Table
1 indicates, of the major markets the United ?tea and Canada
have the highest tariffs--trade-weighted averages of around 20
percent. Finland and Austria, however, have the highest average
duties on the textiles and apparel complex of some 30 percent.
These two countries, followed by the United States and Canada,
also have the largest absolute disparity between textile and
apparel duties and average duties on manufactured imports as a
whole, suggesting the highest degree of relative protection.
(Although comparable data are not available for Australia and New
AA~1~'Ir1r~ r~r . r
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2
Zealand, it should be noted that they also have very high
duties--close to 100 percent on some apparel items.)
Partly as a result of the high level of duties for textiles
and apparel, the tariff structures of the industrial textile
trading nations are also c. racterized by a vary high degree of
tariff escalation in thi ea, as shown in Table 2. It is
notable in the case of the United States that there appears to be
negative effective protection on made-up articles and very high
duties on fibers, at least when compared to other importing
countries.
Table 3 gives data on the dispersion on tariffs by level for
these same eight importing -ountries which are useful in crafting
formulae for additional t ffs, as demoostrated below. For
example, given the sensit .ity of the U.S.. garment industry to
imports, any tariff formulae would have to preserve, if not
increase, the effective protection embodied in our current tariff
schedules. One way to do this would be to add uniform increments
of duty to those currently prevailing, or larger increments for
apparel than textiles, or simply to multiply the current duties
by some factor.
Another consideration raised by the disparity of current
duties would be the effect of possible harmonization of duties
across importing markets as a way to increase import flows into
those markets which have prohibitively high duties, such as
Finland, New Zealand, and Australia. We would want to be
careful, though, that the considerable tariff escalation between
the fabric and garment stages in the United States not be
compromised i h
in t
e course of item. by item (or group by group)
harmonization with other importers. An advantageous approach
might be to seek a ceiling on duties at 'prohibitive' levels,
arbitrarily defined to accomodate the U.S. tariff structure (and
those of the other major traders), but not the truly high-duty
countries. Were post-Tokyo Round duties to be doubled, for
example, all but 6 percent of U.S. tariff line items would be
accomodated by a ceiling of 40 percent a.v.e., while 31 percent
of Canadian, 34 percent of Austrian, 79 percent of Finnish, and
presumably most Australian and New Zealand tariffs could not go
up by their full 'formula' amount. (See.Table 3.)
Tariff Equivalents of Quotas
While there has been some empirical research in the United
States on the question of t:.o tariff equivalent of the quota
system in effect on textiles and apparel, it has been limited in
scope and is now somewhat dated
We d
.
o not know of comparable
work done in other importing markets.
Interagency calculations in May, 1985, based on the work of
Morkre and Tarr, estimatedthe tariff
equivalents of existing
C'.S. quotas in 1964 to have been some 12 percent for textiles and
24 percent for apparel, i.e., increments approximately equal to
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3
NFIIP iTIAL
the existing average ta~Orif $ on these product groups. The
relative restrictiveness between these two groups is consistent
with general expectations. It is also confirmed by data on the
relative portions of imports in each group under import control:
43 percent for non-apparel and 80 percent for apparel in 1984.
Alternative analytical approaches would produce somewhat
different results, but it should be kept in mind that domestic
political imperatives and negotiating possibilities will be more
determinant of a formula (for the substitution of tariffs for
quotas) than the results of any econometric determination of
equivalence. Moreover, there is little doubt that the
restrictive effect of quotas is by no means constant, such
less readily measured. (Quotas are based on absolute numbers
rather than market share, will vary considerably by product and
over the business cycle. One advantage of tariffs over quotas
from the viewpoint of the domestic industry is that they provide
a producer of a given product a constant margin of protection
regardless of swings in consumer taste or overall demand.)
Nonetheless, the 12 and 24 percent figures are useful in
providing an order of magnitude and possible point of departure
in the search for a means to convert quota protection to tariff
protection without adversely affecting domestic economic
interests.
In an effort to determine which importing markets and
products receive relatively more protection under existing quota
regimes, one might look at the degrees of utilization of the
quantitative restraints involved. In theory, the more
restrictive a quota, the higher its utilization. The data do -not
support any meaningful conclusions, though. Table 4 slows the
decree of utilization of quota by supplier and importe'E over some
recent years. These data demonstrate the variable
restrictiveness of particular restraints over time and, even more
dramatically, the differential restrictiveness across suppliers
(for one importer) and across importers (for one supplier). For
these reasons and the fact that the structures, mechanisms, and
category systems of various importing nations all differ, it is
hard to interpret these data in any meaningful manner.
Another way to attempt to measure tariff equivalents of
quotas across countries would be to make International price
comparisons for each of a wide range of comparable products and
then adjust the results for applicable tariffs, taxes and fees.
This would be a huge technical undertaking which could yield
results of limited practical value because of differences in
marketing practices internationally, including costs of doing
business, among other factors.
Prcbatle Trade Effects
Substituting tariffs for quotas should result in the
maintenance of the existing overall competitive situation for
prodjcers in im.pcrting markets. This could be defined in a
AAIII-iwa^aNinon . .
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"a... ^a a^ ^c ^ aAER
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CONfloTM!
number of ways (e.g., in either value or volume terms as import
level, import penetration, or trade balance) and at a number of
levels (e.g., individual product, product group, or in
aggregate).
While the overall trade situation would be unchanged,
significant adjustments would be expected in other respects,
though. The substitution of Mrl1 for discriminatory restraints
would presumably result in considerable shifts in sourcing, from
DCs and less efficient LDCs to the more efficient LDCs. based on
current market shares (in descending order of magnitude), this
would make Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong and China winners and Italy,
West Germany, Canada, and the UK losers. The product composition
of trade might well change too, although in an unpredictable
fashion, due to differential price elasticities of?import demand.
This is especially likely where the equivalent tariffs of the
earlier quotas are determined for relatively large product
aggregates. (Looked at the other way, the earlier subjecting of
large categories to quotas created greater distortions of product
composition due to upgrading.)
Assuming other developed countries were to apply similar
MFN increases-in duties in the place of their quotas on LDCs, our
exports (largely textiles) to them could be reduced. The overall
significance of this side-effect for our industry would of
necessity be small because even in textiles only three percent of
domestic production is exported to developed countries. (The EC,
which exports some $7 billion to developed countries, would face
greater difficulties.) we could largely avoid even this minor
adverse effect though, if we chose to, by negotiating with our
'Gentleman's Agreement' partners to minimize increases in the
rates of duty to be applied to particular products of interest to
us. This would be most readily achieved through 'carve-outs' of
particular goods, including high-valued products. Duty increases
would be on an MFN basis, but our more important two-way trade
could be largely insulated from adverse effects.
In addition to such agreements, adverse effects on U.S.
exports might be offset in part if the more efficient producers
of garments (who would be expanding operations) were particularly
reliant on our textiles or if they were to provide greater market
access. As Tables 5 and 6 show, developing countries maintain
even higher levels-of tariff (and possibly non-tariff) barriers
to imports of textiles and apparel than do the industrial
markets. It would be a reasonable U.S. negotiating request, and
possibly a political necessity to sell conversion to tariffs
domestically, to seek very substantial liberalization on our
textiles from the LDCs. For example, any ceiling applicable to
duties by importing nations as discussed above might equally
apply to supplying nations. (The suspension of quotas for a
particular supplier might be conditioned on such liberalization.)
There would be another factor which could compensate our
textile producers for any lost sales to other 'Gentleman's
j. .., .)
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5
CONFIDENTIAL
Agreement' Countries which might also convert to 'tariffs. Higher
U.S. tariffs on garments would increase the incentive to all
foreign assemblers to use American parts and enter goods under
TSUS item number 807.
Implementation
Legislation would be needed to imp: .ant the envisioned
substitution of tariffs for quotas under U.S. law and presumably
in most other textile trading countries as well. Delays and
possible complications would be likely but could be accomodated
in much the same way that acceptances of the NPA have been spread
out over the years and compliance with its provisions has not
been uniform or perfect. For example, importing markets might be
authorized to maintain (and extend) ex: 'ng quantitative
restrictions for some period while the agotiate with domestic
interests and foreign suppliers the particular adjustments in
tariffs they would make consistent with the agreed formula.
Similarly, as discussed above, individual exporters could be
denied the benefits of the relaxation of quotas by the major
industrial markets until these exporters had taken steps to
reduce to some agreed maximum their import barriers on such
goods.
The problems posed by the legislative process in the United
States are always considerable when it comes to trade, but should
not be daunting in this instance because, unlike most others,
trade liberalization would not be soaght. Indeed, the levels of
duty envisioned for the United States are well in excess of those
which Congress mandated (in section 504 of the Trade Agreements
Act of 1979) to go into effect should quantitative restraints
cease to apply.
Those members of Congress which have pushed for textile
legislation on the grounds that current partial restraints have
not been effective might prefer a global tariff approach to a
fine-tuned discriminatory system. The considerable revenue
raising potential of the tariff approach and related capture of
the existing foreign quota rents (as well as the profit-paring
effect on importers/retailers) would be strong selling points.
Most of Congress' concerns with effective and fair enforcement of
the current-system (including release from embargoes, origin
determinations, transhipments, overshipments and prior visa
approval) would also be made moot by the conversion to MFN
tariffs. Customs staffing and other resources dedicated to the
complex operation of the textile prograr could be redirected to
other projects.
For a proposed tariff increase to receive legislative
approval here and in other importing markets, it would have to
meet the particular needs of especially import sensitive or
politically important sectors. Rather than rigidly applying a
tariff formula across all items, we might want to to increase
duties by sorre trade-weighted average while retaining the freedom
on-trinruTI A i
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C mHRnrxnu
to spread the burden across products as we wish. This would of
course be a complicated process but well worth the effort in view
of the economic and international political benefits of this
approach which would accrue as long as it was in effect.
Similarly, both mport-competing industries and exporting
interests will die# it the calculations which would underly the
conversion to taring and want to be able to make considerable
adjustments in the tariffs on the basis of market results after
the initial conversion. This would constitute a very natural
safeguard against unforeseen developments or the unpredictability
of the effects of a tariff system presumed by many in industry.
For example, if import penetration were to rise (or fall)
more than a certai: ?'ireshhold from a base period, uncompensated
adjustments in the c'?_E.y would be provided for. Building on the
illustrative figures mentioned above, after doubling existing
tariffs an increment (or decrement) of say 10 percentage points
might be allowed were the market results'to indicate the tariffs
for a particular product provided significantly more or less
protection than the earlier quotas. Alternatively, only
compensated adjustments might be allowed, but they could be of
much larger degree and more permanent.
The final implementation of a conversion to tariffs could be
linked to a new trade round if we wished to try to use it as a
carrot to induce LDC support or, alternatively, it might be
formally agreed that the results of the conversion would be
exempted from future multilateral tariff concessions for a decade
or so to increase its saleability to import competing industries.
Presumably no Article 19 actions would be allowed for textiles
and apparel until after subsequent tariff cuts were made in a
m
ultilateral round, or possibly even until cuts were made to
levels
though,bthewconversiior.otootariffslevels.
couldlmark all other hreturnrespects, full
application of GATT rules to this sector.
UNFIDENTIAt
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Table 1 m.-i KM 610 POPS-TORO X10 non DI u01Q UEVMDM 61Wi-S
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
I aeaagra.)
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94
61y
30 304 364
19
394
39
Sr.d.,
he
2
4
a4
94
u4 14 11
Pt
144
14-
Pmt
14
4
64
74
13. 13 10
a
l4
14
avit.wlmd
he
24
0
5
4h
. a4 1016 a
4
114
u4
hart
2
0
4
Ps
64 A 64
34
9
11
IYdttp
AttltL.
he
3
0
4
4
17 164 A 1a
224
22
POW
24
0
4
?
16 134 16, 17
'0
214
lb.t A
54
4
94
11
214 114 17 1as
47
304
?
3+1
4
7
104
,44 11 134 164
Sus
454
Em ____
Ibst
0
0
7
a4
21 .154 224 11
774
96
a?dchipLwINew; Y?Ads by NW UPWu.
A ? all owiE6
a ? arhdsr; aielttmal &flS ~e m Lpvet. &or. !as gnaw.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
Taal. 3 ?O19WOMM 1' Mars a mans 00 Q=C W S lVva.fl AWS
United 6taew
d_l.
-
C
C?
3
4
13 w
6
6
3
6
0.1
- S.aa
6
6ss
165
2 0
t
5
7 5
5
6
5.1
- 10.OS
.65
to%
41
7 10
11
25
6t 14
17
293
10.1
-15.01
93
gds
16
6 ' 21
27%
33
33 265
25
A
15.1
- 20.01
31%
17
165
33 12%
234
IS
9 395
49
0
2A.1
-25.(M
19
135
4
36 A
36
IS
1 14
1
0
Orw 252
lds
2a
2
11 0
13
1
0 1
0
0
(c)
e)
(c)
(!)
(c)
Fm
19
193
3 3
65
6
l
l
0.1 - 5.02
5
61S
25 25
65
6
45
- 53
3.1 - IO.OS
6
12
9
16
2+6
25
29
10.1 - 15.01
125
IS
4 4
. S2'1
31
I6
Ids
15.1 - 2a.02
115
13
2 2
175
10
6
a
30.1-25.09
Ids
16
65 4s
5
5
2
2
Oeur am
335
is
76 765
5
5
3
5
pn4 mud bud; PC*-takro bud; c PM-U40 bud. 6.o- a tlw
ala,Ltia" rae d2o reria..e7 bud adtad &Mty ftn IMM. du ttpea In eo1ai (,)
a a cia espa+b1m d& dw f1 n In mlass O) and (e).
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 :CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1 Tla as'
'hble 4 F u" t .
Cl TSIMG R 81U 2CTm ?LTflC COOrIUZS' I= TIR 1 njc
1979-1982
(hrtaat~s)
4
83
$4.1
90.1
90.8
uc states
.
9
76
66.4
67.7
73.8
Canada
.
2
68
63.8.
59.6 .
$2.6
mc
.
93
4
73.0
78.0
75.2
natsad
.
69.4
94.6
torn. en. of
1
77
85.0
9S.3
87.3
patted state.
.
9
6
$7
71.2
2
62
42.
.
Canada
.
5
0
70
61.7
0
73
69.
.
11t
.
36.7.
43.0
34.6
Finland
9v.den
84.5
83.0
71.6
Mateo
86
7
79.7
$4.7
81.4
United State.
.
1
36
56.6
53.1
73.3
.
66
6
Canada
4
67
61.1
.
74.0
.
65
6
SC
1
73
80.3
.
51.6
.
0
87
Finland
sued"
$9.6
93.0
$9.2
.
SinsaPor.
33
4
61.3
66.1
United States
54.6
3
35
.
39.9
33.7
43.6
Canada
.
9
69
63.2
32.6
40.2
u
.
24
9
16.8
0.0
Vinland
Iv.den
.
101.6
92.3
Sri Lanka
61.2
$0.6
83.3
United State.
2
56.3
41.6
6
44
69.
u
.
69.7
Via land
Sweden
89.5
85.6
7Lailand
73
4
92.0
77.3
70.2
.
3
33
gaited State.
65
3
45.0
.
127.6
.
6
74
Canada
4
107
74.6
.
$1.6
.
0
35
SC
9
79
95.4
$2.7
.
Vinland
.
107.4
96.4
69.6
M4.0
Ldaaeiia
100.0
gaited states
74.1
72.5
Malaysia
3
73
74.9
79.7
87.3
gaited state.
.
43.0
50.7
82.0
Canada
65
6
63.3
$6.9
$1.0
SC
.
70.2
36.9
98.3
Vinland
widen
$3.5
93.7
India
78.1
67.0
80.9
United State.
61.6
65.5
45.0
Canada
4
71
62.0
31.6
66.6
.
7
49
u
9
72
56.1
36.6
.
Finland
Widen
.
97.0
91.9
93.3
63.6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10 : CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/11/10: CIA-RDP87M00539R002303830009-1
Table 6- IDO.! AR7ACt QUOTA 0;1ilzsT208 IATtt IS Ti yn
C MMENC ST SBJCTU) $DPPLT731C COOif LUO Rlt nfl DOOtTDX CMWMtS
1979-1982 (emati?sed)
t
(percentages)
Pakistan
Vatted states
iyeada
97.1
103
3
44.3
n'f
39.7
11
.
102.7
97.3
108.0
8s?den
33.6
77.9
60.0
M.3
51.1
70.8
79.0
Dotted states
Ceases
37.3
>.6
634
13.6
W
69.3
50.6
67.3
47.!
Sweden
73.4
86.7
76.3
66.2
Brasil
91.1
59.4
79.3
United State.
8C
23.1 .
61
7
17.4
39.3
39.8
Sweden
.
36.3
47.2
13.3
Colombia
54.1
49.1
United State.
36.2
36.0
71
9
46
Sc
lezico
United States
u
8ulgarL
64.7
36.9
33.1
73.4
71.6
30.4
.
35.3
36.0
5.1
.9
33.?
33.9
6.0
Canada
46.1
23.8
11
1
33
0
42.3
/S
]
.
.
Cs.choslovskia
.
33.6
32.7
Canada
8C
102.0
70.3
60.3
69.3
Canada
8C
168.8
37.0
3.0
73.0
Pol
and
Dotted States
Can
d
34.7
20.2
33.4
32.8
39.5
28.4
32.3
24.2
a
a
iC
78.4
32.6
31.2
31.3
68
2
31
g
i
Ds.ited states
.
44.3
.9
39.7
13.3
78.3
32.9
64
4
Canada
3C
19.6
134.6
37.9
.
33.0
Tuge?la'is
Rite! Stated
B
d
37.0
16.1
46.3
0.8
39.7
0.4
30.0
1.9
a
en
Chian
82.8
W .7
73.8
-
73.3
listed states
C
d
87.1
91.3
77.7
ana
a
149.8
99.1
113.1
61.2
?
sa-P171a8 countries heve been included is this table vtw n they
have a restraint with more than ens of the five importing areas for
which quota utilisation data have keen received. The above data are
of limited comparability in tens of quote definitions. product
categories and time period. covered. They should be taken therefore
?a only rough indications of the relative performance of supplying
countries in the five import market..
 0
QOV