NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 14 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020049-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: April 14, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of fto
I
OCPAi/C G
National Inte i.gence Daily
a~ Saturday
14 April 1984
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CPAS NID 84-088JX
14 April 1984
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Contents
Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Optimism ............................................................ 1
France: Labor Problems Strain Coalition .................................. 2
USSR: Cooperation on Foreign Policy ......................................... 3
India-Sri Lanka: Prospects for Intervention .............................. 4
Canada-Central America: Policy Review .................................. 5
Egypt: Government Moves Against Opposition ........................ 7
USSR-Ethiopia: Strained Relations ............................................ 8
Iran-Japan: Results of Foreign Minister's Visit .......................... 9
Israel: Aftermath of Terrorist Attack ........................................... 10
USSR-Eastern Europe: Economic Summit Announced ............ 11
Yugoslavia: Conflict Over Economic Reform ...:........................ 11
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IRAQ-IRAN: Iraqi Optimism
Iraq's leaders n is weakening militarily and
economically.
Iraqi leaders believe that there will be a
turning point in the war this year and that Iran may not be able to
launch any large offensives after 1984. The Iraqis estimate that Iran
suffered 50,000 casualties in February and March.
senior Iraqi officials believe that sagging morale
an eavy losses have so weakened the Iranian military that its
anticipated attack on Al Basrah will be no larger than earlier attacks.
They are convinced that they can defeat the Iranians on the Majnoon
Islands because of floodin and the i sing effectiveness of the
Iraqi Air Force.
The Iraqis view Iran's clerical rulers as under
increasing pressure o en a war They cite Iran's growing difficulty
in recruiting troops and purchasing arms, logistic problems, and
inflation and fiscal mismanagement. Iraqi leaders are beginning to
believe that increased economi ll produce more
changes favorable to Iraq.
Comment: the effects
of the war are causing concern among some prominent Iranian
clerics. Iraqi leaders, however, probably are exaggerating Iran's
domestic and military problems. Ayatollah Khomeini has not vet been
convinced of the need to consider ending the conflict.
Iraq is likely to stick with what it regards as a successful strategy of
trying to persuade the West to curtail trade with Iran. The Iraqis
probably will continue periodic airstrikes on shipping near Khark
Island to discourage oil purchases from Iran.
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The "march on Paris" yesterday by over 30,000 steelworkers will
not weaken the government's resolve to modernize the steel
industry, but the participation of Communist Party leader
Marchais will further Increase tensions between Socialists and
Communists.
Comment: Relations in the coalition are at their lowest point since
1981. Marchais has condemned the government's decision to phase
out 25,000 steel jobs and to make similar cutbacks in the coal,
shipbuilding, transportation, and automobile sectors-all strongholds
of the Communist-dominated labor federation. In a recent interview,
Marchais charged President Mitterrand had reneged on the coalition
agreement of 1981, which promised expansionary economic policies.
Mitterrand emphasized that failure to modernize heavy industry would
wreck French competitiveness and depress living standards. He has
warned that Communist efforts to undermine public confidence in
government policies would be incompatible with continued
participation in the government.
Widespread reports indicate that the coalition is unlikely to break up
before the European Parliament election in June but that chances of
its survival will decrease thereafter. French commentators note that'
neither side wants to appear responsible for a breakup, but both
seem intent on pushing their incompatible economic programs and
maneuvering one another into ending the coalition.
The timing of a break is likely to depend in part on the duration and
seriousness of Communist-led labor protests. Marchais' participation
in the march probably reflects a belief among Communist leaders that
the rank and file support such actions, and they could make stronger
attacks on Mitterrand's policies. If the four Communist cabinet-level
appointees join Marchais in public criticism, Mitterrand may take
stern action.
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USSR: Cooperation on Foreign Policy
General Secretary Chernenko is being supported as President-
in the area of foreign affairs-by chief party executive
Gorbachev, his former rival.
At the plenum of the Central Party Committee, Chernenko had said
that the foreign affairs commissions of the Supreme Soviet could do
more to coordinate and supervise the work of government
organizations concerned with international affairs. At the Supreme
Soviet session on Wednesday, Gorbachev nominated Chernenko for
president, stressing that in the conduct of foreign affairs it is
particularly important to have the party General Secretary also hold
the post of president.
In his acceptance speech, Chernenko again noted the key role that
the foreign affairs commissions should play. Gorbachev then was
elected to head one of the two commissions, the same one that
Chernenko headed after Brezhnev died.
The two foreign affairs commissions met after the Supreme Soviet
session. Gorbachev and Politburo candidate member Ponomarev,
who retains the chairmanship of the second commission, spoke of the
work to be done by their groups along the lines proposed by
Chernenko. The commissions were then staffed by key foreign affairs
officials of the Central Committee.
Comment: Chernenko has seemed to be overshadowed in foreign
policy matters by the other senior members of the Politburo,
especially by Foreign Minister Gromyko. One Soviet diplomat recently
disparaged Chernenko's abilities in this area, stating that Gromyko
was preeminent in shaping foreign policy. The imbalance now seems
to have been partly redressed.
Gorbachev will gain visibility in foreign affairs, and this will improve
his credentials as a potential successor to Chernenko. If Gorbachev
should succeed Chernenko while Gromyko is still in office, it would be
to Gorbachev's advantage to have the presidency play a key role in
foreign policy.
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Palk
Strait _ a A Ja na
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Bay
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INDIA-SRI LANKA: Prospects for Intervention
Prime Minister Gandhi has informed US officials that communal
turmoil in Sri Lanka may be getting out of hand and implied that
India may have to Intervene directly.
Gandhi told US officials that President Jayewardene has failed to
fulfill promises made to India last fall during the Commonwealth
Conference in New Delhi. She charged that Jayewardene has ignored
moderate demands by the Tamils for limited autonomy and that
Colombo's recent security measures in Jaffna are endangering Tamil
civilians. The Prime Minister denied that India is providing sanctuary,
arms, or training to Tamil insurgents based in India.
Jayewardene assured government officials and diplomats on 6 April
that, under the security treaty of 1948, Sri Lanka could count on the
British for assistance if it is threatened by a foreign power. According
to British officials, however, London does not consider the defense
treaty binding.
Comment: India is likely to weigh in militarily if the violence in Sri
Lanka threatens to provoke a massive influx of refugees into southern
India or to invite intervention by foreign powers. Gandhi is under
growing domestic pressure to support the Tamils in Sri Lanka. The
language she used with US officials is similar to that employed by the
Indians before they moved into East Pakistan in 1971.
India could launch an amphibious assault against Sri Lanka on short
notice. The. Navy's 10 landing ships can move a fully equipped infantry
battalion with some supporting armor. Since last October, India has
increased the number of naval ships and personnel in the southeast,
and it also may have created a special naval infantry force. Sri
Lanka's 25,000-man Army could offer only token resistance to an
Indian invasion.
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CANADA-
CENTRAL
AMERICA:
Policy Review
involvement in Central America.
Prime Minister Trudeau may consider the controversy over the
mining of Nicaraguan ports an opportunity to increase Canada's
mines.
Trudeau, in answering questions in Parliament on Wednesday, called
the mining an "act of terrorism" but stopped short of condemning the
US. Although Trudeau and External Affairs Minister MacEachen both
said Canada will not support France's proposal to provide
minesweepers, they stated they would take a sympathetic view of
proposals by regional or international organizations to remove the
MacEachen also announced this week that Ottawa is prepared to join
the OAS, according to unconfirmed press reports. In addition,
Trudeau will discuss Central America and the Contadora process with
Mexican President de la Madrid when they meet in Ottawa next
provoked widespread criticism.
Comment: Trudeau has long considered Central America an area of
vital interest to the US, and he thus has not been inclined to condemn
US policies in the region publicly. Nevertheless, the mining and the
US decision on the International Court of Justice strike at the
traditional legalistic basis of Canada's foreign policy and have
increasing both its prestige and its foreign trade in the region. 25X1
Ottawa also appears ready to expand Canada's presence in Central
America by indicating an increased willingness to cooperate with the
Contadora group, an option it has been considering since last fall.
Last week MacEachen convened Canadian diplomats in the region,
and he probably briefed them on the possibility of Canada's
accepting observer status in the group. Ottawa is likely to view
association with the group and membership in the OAS as a means of
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EGYPT: . Government Moves Against Opposition
The government is taking increasingly strong measures to
Influence the parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 May.
The government confiscated the edition on Thursday of the
newspaper of the leading opposition party, the New Wafd. The lead
story dealt with a theft from the Justice Ministry of materials used in
the current trial of members of al-Jihad, an Islamic extremist group.
Press reports state that a court has ordered the edition released. F
A member of the New Wafd Party in parliament who recently had
defected from the ruling National Democratic Party died on Tuesday
under suspicious circumstances, according to the Embassy. A series
of articles in the government-owned press had implicated him in drug
trafficking. The victim had complained to the leader of the New Wafd
Party that the government was trying to discredit him.
Comment: This is the first time that Mubarak's government has
confiscated an opposition publication. It is the second time it has lost
a court case against the Wafd.
The government may have feared that the article on the al-Jihad trial
would stir up Islamic sentiment before the elections. The opposition
press recently attacked the government for using secretly recorded
confessions-which were presumably among the stolen materials-
to confirm earlier confessions that the defendants claimed were
obtained by torture.
Responsibility for the murder remains unclear. The opposition
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USSR-ETHIOPIA: Strained Relations
Officials in Rome and third-country diplomats in Addis Ababa say
that Chairman Mengistu's visit to Moscow late last month failed
to ameliorate longstanding tensions.
The Ethiopian Industry Minister, who accompanied Mengistu,
described the visit to an Italian official as "bad in all important
aspects." He said Mengistu deeply resented a Soviet refusal to delay
the visit to allow Mengistu to attend the funeral of Guinea's President
Toure. The diplomats in Addis Ababa say the trip was cut short, but
General Secretary Chernenko has accepted an invitation to visit
Ethiopia.
Comment: Moscow appears to be worried that it may lose influence
in Addis Ababa despite its extensive military aid and,that the arms
credits will never be repaid. The Soviets might consider providing new
military or economic aid commitments if pro-Soviet, civilians were
given important positions in the new Communist party. Mengistu's
nationalistic military clique, however, probably will control the party.
Chernenko is unlikely to attend the party inauguration in September,
unless he is satisfied that the party is pro-Soviet. The USSR, however,
will continue to provide the minimum amount of military and
economic aid needed to maintain its position in Ethiopia.
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IRAN-JAPAN: Results of Foreign Minister's Visit
Some progress in bilateral relations appears to have been
achieved during Iranian Foreign Minister Velayati's visit to Tokyo
earlier this week.
Velayati mollified the Japanese by asserting that Tehran will not try to
close the Strait of Hormuz unless its oil exports are completely cut off.
The Japanese are Iran's largest customers for oil and purchase nearly
one-quarter of the 1.9 million barrels per day it exports. They are
concerned about security in the Persian Gulf, the higher costs of
Iranian oil, and Tehran's reluctance to buy more Japanese goods to
balance Tokyo's sizable trade deficit with Iran.
Officials in the Japanese Foreign Ministry say that Velayati did not
request to buy Japanese aircraft and radars. He also did not press
Tokyo hard to encourage Japanese technical personnel at the huge
petrochemical complex at Bandar-e Khomeyni to return to work. F
On the other hand, Velayati asked Tokyo to encourage Japanese
trading companies to renew oil contracts that lapsed last month. The
Japanese claimed that the decision rests solely with the companies.
Velayati publicly and privately emphasized that Moscow's military
support for Iraq had caused a deterioration in Soviet-Iranian
relations. His criticism of the US was muted, and his deputy privately
commended the. US for opposing Iraq's use of chemical weapons.
Japanese Foreign Minister Abe's favorable public remarks on Iran,
however, have already provoked an Iraqi protest.
Comment: The Foreign Minister's restrained remarks demonstrate
Tehran's keen interest in expanding economic relations with Japan.
Although Tokyo is unlikely to approve exports to Iran with military
applications, the Iranians probably will continue to seek such
equipment and spare parts from Japan. Velayati's views on relations
with the USSR reflect Tehran's hostility toward Moscow,
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ISRAEL: Aftermath of Terrorist Attack
The bus hijacking in Israel on Thursday almost certainly will result in a
major retaliatory attack on Palestinian positions in Lebanon. Officials
in the Israeli Defense Ministry claim they have identified the four
individuals involved in the incident as members of Fatah. They say the
four recently joined a terrorist cell in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis
believe that the attack reflects an overall PLO policy of increasing
terrorism in Israel and that Fatah is trying to restore its credibility with
Comment: The Israelis believe that the hijacking and the recent
increase in PLO attacks on Israeli soldiers in Lebanon require a
response. They realize that retaliation against the PLO in Lebanon will
not prevent terrorism in Israel, and they are likely to tighten internal
security measures.
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Soviet First Deputy Foreign Minister Korniyenko has announced that
the CEMA summit will be held in Moscow in June. Another Soviet
official told the US Embassy in Bucharest that major problems related
to the summit either have been resolved or are being worked out. In
particular, he said that the supranational role of CEMA is not an issue
and never had been.
Comment: The summit is unlikely to produce substantial changes in
Soviet-East European economic relations. East European opposition
has forced Moscow to ease its demands for closer economic
integration in CEMA. The key issues that probably will be addressed
at the summit include the quantity and quality of East European
exports to the USSR to reduce trade deficits, and East European
investment in Soviet development projects in exchange for supplies
of energy and raw materials.
The US Embassy says Prime Minister Planinc warned last week that
she and her cabinet will resign unless the legislature quickly approves
legislation carrying out her economic policies and ensuring adherence
to the IMF program ratified last month. While acknowledging the high
cost of complying with the Fund's conditions, Planinc warns that
failure to adhere to the program would entail even greater economic
sacrifice and that she would be unwilling to lead the country under
such circumstances. At the Fund's insistence, a price freeze will be
lifted at the end of this month-adding to the inflation-and interest
rates will be raised by as much as 18 percent.
Comment: Planinc seems to be using the tough IMF program,
reinforced by her threat to resign, to help push through her economic
stablization program. She has threatened to resign before, but her
evident frustration with the political obstacles impeding stabilization
adds weight to her current threat.
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President Siles is trying to strengthen his position by announcing
tough economic measures and by broadening his political base
through a cabinet shuffle. Earlier this week he announced the
reincorporation into the government of the Movement of the
Revolutionary Left, which has been an outspoken critic since it
withdrew from the cabinet in January 1983. Yesterday Siles
announced a large devaluation and higher prices for food, gasoline,
and transportation. To compensate for the rising cost of living, the
government also decreed quarterly indexation of wages and subsidies
for food and transportation.
Comment: Siles's ability to coax the Movement of the Revolutionary
Left into the cabinet immediately before announcing austerity
measures will improve his credibility and strengthen his prospects for
dealing with labor's reaction. The decision to increase wages and to
provide other subsidies also should help mollify labor. Although the
austerity package does not meet all of the IMF's requirements for a
standby loan, it will facilitate further discussion with the fund and will
help stimulate other foreign assistance.
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Eastern Europe
In Brief
scandal if he were to die in Gorkiy.
- Wife of Soviet dissident Sakharov says he needs immediate
phlebitis operation ... leadership so far has ignored his requests
to be hospitalized in Moscow ... might now agree, to avoid likely
- Czechoslovak Foreign Minister seeking an invitation to visit West
Germany, hoping to resume annual consultations ... suggests that
moratorium that began late last year on contacts with INF basing
countries has been lifted. 25X1
- Nicaraguan Defense Minister met Soviet counterpart in Moscow
on Thursday ... has said he is seeking more arms ... TASS
account, however, does not mention specific arms aid ...
portrayed visit as stopover on way home from North Korea. 25X1
Africa - Libya shows 50 armored vehicles arrived 25X125X1
on Thursday at Kufra in the southeast
- EC has notified GATT it plans to tax some imports of US-produced
corn gluten feed, worth $500 million last year ... EC has 90 days to
offer compensation, after which US free to retaliate ... EC may
next try to restrict US soybean sales, worth nearly $4 billion a year.
South Asia - Iranian Consultative Assembly election tomorrow ... runoffs likely
in two weeks for most of 270 seats ... new Assembly will open on
28 May if two-thirds of results declared valid by review panels.) -125X1
Europe
- Spain has announced it will buy French-West German Roland
surface-to-air missiles ... US and British systems had been in
running ... Madrid wants to broaden sources of arms. 25X1
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