VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 71.2-56: OUTLOOK FOR ALGERIA, PUBLISHED 5 SEPTEMBER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100048-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: August 16, 1957
• Content Type: STUDY

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100048-1
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IAC -D -100 / 45
16 August 1957
Validity Study of N1E 71.2-56:
Outlook for Algeria,
published 5 September 1956
NIE 71.2-56 has proved incorrect in its most important
estimate: that there was a somewhat better than even chance
for an Algerian settlement within a 12-month period. The main
causes of that miscalculation were: (a) an overestimate of
France's willingness to face the realities of the Algerian
situation, (b) a failure to estimate the Mollet government's
adoption of an increasingly rightist policy toward Algeria, and
(c) the unforeseen armed intervention at Suez and the subsequent
intensely nationalistic French reaction. On the other hand, the
NIE did state that the Suez controversy would delay a settlement;
it correctly estimated a widened and intensified conflict if a
settlement were not achieved; and it was generally accurate in
predicting the position and policies of the Algerian nationalists.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/08/15: CIA-RDP82-00400R000300100048-1