CUBA: THE MOOD AFTER GRENADA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 4, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 14, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
Q
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
Central IrrodligFnoe AgFruy
N~slrngoe. a c msos
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
14 January 1984
CUBA: THE MOOD AFTER GRENADA
Summary
Cuba's ?Ioss? of Grenada Zast October accentuated the toll
the revolution has taken on Zife in Cuba today. In our view, it
has profoundly affected the Zeadership, the military establish-
ment, and the citizenry. A particularly humiliating experience
for the Cubans, the Grenada affair has had unique repercussions
likely to have lasting influence in several key areas of both
domestic and external affairs.
Although there is convincing evidence of significant
dissatisfaction with the regime--Castro himself admitted privately
in 1981 that 5 percent of the population would emigrate if given
the chance--we see no corresponding sign that this discontent has
crystallized into a political force or represents any threat to
Castro's grip on power. Nevertheless, Eavana's unstinting effort
over more than two years to discourage US mediumwave broadcasts to
Cuba is a clear indication that the Cuban Zeadership, with its
complex apparatus for monitoring popular opinion. worries that the
Zeve1 of disenchantment is dangerously high.
for Latin America, Office of Soviet Analysis, and Directorate of Operations.
Comments and queries are welcome and should be addressed to Chief, Cuba-
This memorandum was requested b Ambassador Gerald Aelman at the State
Department. It was prepared by Office of African and Latin
American. This memo was coordinated with the National Intelligence Officer
Caribbean Branch, Middle America-Caribbean Division
Copy o? 3 of 3.~
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
The regime almost certainly does not believe--nor do we--that
its position is under immediate threat. It is probably mainly
concerned that the US broadcasts could spark protest demons-
trations that would embarrass 9avana internationally. With the
recent Grenada experience in mind, the Zeadership is probably
particularly fearful that Cubans will not passively accept
accurate accounts of about the cost in blood of Cubans military
operations overseas.
Fidel Castro's revolution, now in its 26th year, is tired.
Years of austerity, regimentation, dashed .hopes, and--perhaps
most important--dim prospects for the future are sapping the
Cuban population's revolutionary ardor. Castro, recognizing that
the level of disenchantment is growing, has tried to insulate the
Cuban people from the truth about his Grenadian misadventure,
appease the frustrated military, and smoulder quietly about
Moscow's feeble response. Much could be done to ease the
conditions undermining the revolution's vitality but the
leadership--primarily Castro himself--adheres to rigid
ideological rules of behavior and refuses to make the policy
Disillusionment, while widespread, poses no direct threat to
the regime, whose efficient security services and biased judicial
system insure against the development of organized opposition.
The few desperate enough to commit some act of defiance in-
variably are working alone or in small, isolated groups. While
many Cubans probably would emigrate if given the chance, the
majority remain strongly nationalistic, especially in their
attitudes toward the United States. Castro is no longer exempt--
as he was in the early years--from blame for Cuba's ills, but he
is far~from discredited. Ample evidence shows he is still highly
changes that could provide relief.
The fallout from Grenada has put Castro on the defensive in
his contest with Washington. We believe he will continue his
diplomatic and propaganda activities against the United States,
but his fears of Washington's low tolerance for Cuban misbehavior
will temper his actions at least until the outcome of the US
respected and accepted as the country's "maximum leader".
elections is clear.
The USSR
The Grenada crisis almost surely heightened Cuba's sense of
vulnerability by adding friction to its relations with the
USSR. Grenada was a jolting validation of the spheres of
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
influence thesis--a concept Cubans understandably reject. Moscow
clearly did not think Maurice Bishop's revolution--no matter what
its worth to Cuba--was of sufficient value to risk a confront-
ation with the United States. While none in the Cuban leadership
expected the Soviets to act militarily, many probably judged
Moscow's response inadequate and saw it as a preview of the
Soviet attitude in the event of a US assault on Nicaragua or even
Cuba itself.
Moreover, the Soviet role in Bishop's demise showed that
Moscow and Havana at best had failed to synchronize their
activities in promoting the Grenadian revolution, and at worst
were working at cross-purposes. During a visit to Moscow fn
January, a top Cuban official pointedly called for greater
ideological cooperation with the Soviets, while President
Castro's recent speeches indicate clearly his misgivings about
the Soviet relationship with Bernard Coard, Bishop's deputy and
chief antagonist. In a speech on 15 November, Raul Castro
likened the Coard-Bishop struggle to an incident in Cuba in 1962
when a Moscow-backed clique of orthodox Cuban communists tried to
undercut Fidel's grip on power.
The irritation of the Cuban leadership notwithstanding, the
prevailing trend toward ever closer Cuban-Soviet cooperation is
likely to continue. No matter what his personal attitude toward
the USSR, Castro realizes he has no alternative source for the
massive aid that Moscow provides to keep the Cuban economy from
collapsing. Moreover, the Cuban military establishment depends
almost entirely on Soviet supplies of weapons and equipment--all
provided free of charge--and any interruption in that supply
would damage a major element of the Cuban power structure.
Castro in his pique may slight the Soviets from time to time but,
as he has done before, will eventually come to heel. On the
other hand, popular attitudes toward the Soviets, never very
warm, have almost certainly worsened.
The Cuban Military
The Grenada affair seems to have badl stained the re ut-
ation of the Cuban military establishment.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
Havana, apparently recognizing this blot on the armed
forces, has tried to bolster military morale and improve the
image of the officer corps. In an unusual gesture, two top
military officers were belatedly awarded medals on New Year's Day
for their service years ago in Angola and Ethiopia.* The medals
were probably also intended to heal some bruised egos and
distract attention from the Grenada loss.
Lower levels of the militar establishment were also ball
shaken
It seems clear that the Grenada disaster stung the pride of
Cuba's military professionals, who probably are anxious for an
opportunity to redeem themselves.. As a start,
they would like to inflict a signficant
States and other adversaries.
defeat on South African troops in Angola. Their ire almost
certainly is directed not toward Castro but toward the United
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
The Cuban People
Several signs suggest that Castro's management of the
Grenada debacle, especially in its early hours, displeased many
Cubans or at least left them confused and uneasy.
This loss of confidence seems to have been most acute fn
eastern Cuba, which apparently has generously supplied the
government with "volunteers" for overseas duty.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
period in previous years.
Presumably to explain the government's actions to the
general population, boost morale, and direct popular hostility
toward the US, the regime in December released a documentary film
entitled "Grenada, the Take-off of a Dream" and in late January
placed on sale in all provincial capitals a book, Grenada, the
World Against the Crime, purporting to "make known the truth of
what happened in Grenada. .." Moreover, the government made an
effort in December to ease temporarily some of the standard re-
strictions on consumer goods. Our Interests Section in Havana
noted, for example, that apples were offered for sale for the
first time in 10 years, unrationed pork and chicken were made
available, and toys were much more prevalent than in the same
would reveal the true import of his mistakes.
Conclusions
Despite the doubts raised in the military, as well as in the
population in general, about the wisdom of Casto's decisions, any
direct US effort to challenge Castro's leadership would almost
certainly generate enough nationalist fervor to make Cubans rally
to his defense. His efficient propaganda apparatus along with
his own lingering charisma have spared him the blame for his many
disastrous decisions. He has had great success in finding scape-
goats and in limiting the public's access to information that
Since Grenada, however, is perceived by many Cubans to be a
serious blunder, Castro appears vulnerable to a long-term, low-
key campaign of criticism. We believe a well-informed Cuban
public would be less willing to accept some of Castro's more
adventurous policies. While some Cubans would completely
discount US broadcasts as baseless propaganda, we believe many
are anxious--in the wake of Grenada--to have an external source
of objective, dispassionate news about events affecting Cuba.
As for the military, the leadership appears anxious to
redeem itself and to rekindle the euphoria that accompanied its
resounding victory over Somalia in the Ogaden campaign in 1978.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
A dramatic rout of the anti-Sandinista guerrillas in Nicaragua,
for example, or of South African forces in southern Angola could
fully restore the military's own morale as well as that of the
public. Another costly defeat, in contrast, would further under-
mine Ca 's credibility and the people's confidence in hfs
regime.
Castro probably feels outrage toward the United States over
Cuba's helplessness to prevent the reversal of Grenada's revolu-
tion and appears apprehensive about signals that Cuban tactics of
the past are proving less effective. We believe he will continue
his diplomatic and propaganda efforts to mobilize world opinion
against the United States, but his recent speeches indicate a
fear that Washington is willing to ignore public opinion and,
even worse, has US public opinion behind it on its tough policy
toward Cuba.
We believe that Castro, uncomfortably on the defensive,
realizes he has lost the initiative in his continuing battle with
Washington and seems uncertain what to do next. Understanding
that Washington's tolerance for Cuba's misbehavior has been
lowered dramatically, he likely does not want to engage in
activity that could justify US retaliation. Yet, he is wary of
negotiations as a way out of his dilemma, viewing concessions to
the US as surrender to his main ideological enemy.
If the United States made the first move, we believe that
Castro would probably enter into talks but, with this an election
year in the US, he would not be very forthcoming. The signs so
far suggest that without an immediate military threat to Cuba
itself, he is prepared to buy time in hopes of seeing a change in
administration in Washington. Only after the outcome of the
United States elections is clear and there was no change in
administration in Washington would he be likely to negotiate in
earnest.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0
SUBJECT: Cuba: The Mood After Grenada
Original & 12
13
14
15
16
17
18 & 19
20 & 21
22
23 to 26
27 to 35
Gerald Helman
Executive Director
LA/NIO
NIC/AG
PDB Staff
C/DDI/PES
D/ALA
ALA/PS
ALA Research Director
OCPAS/IMC/CB
ALA/MCD/CC
DDI/ALA/MCD~ 14 February 1984)
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/12 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000901030001-0