GIEREK'S POLAND: THE SEARCH FOR PROSPERITY AND NATIONAL IDENTITY

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CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4
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February 5, 1973
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'Al " I I WP% WP% 100 Aim% I 1409% AIW*j L. A*"% 100, Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Secret O. N. E. MEMORANDUM OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES Gierek's Poland: The Search for Prosperity and National Identity Cif Secret 5 February 1973 Copy 10 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 v,uvi~L .L GIEREK'S POLAND: THE SEARCH FOR PROSPERITY AND NATIONAL IDENTITY Table of Contents Page No. The Lesson of 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 More For the Consumer . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 A Green Revolution? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Toward Economic Reform 8 The Defense Burden 9 Toward a Broader Political Base . . . . . . . . 11 Foreign Policy Trends 16 Trouble Ahead? 22 SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SECRET CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES 5 February 1973 GIEREK'S POLAND: THE SEARCH FOR PROSPERITY AND NATIONAL IDENTITY Poland is the USSR 'a largest all;, in the Communist world and in Europe; yet it has unusually strong historical ties with the West. With the USSR now embarked on ar., active and forward policy of detente in Europe, developments in Poland have taken on an added significance. Tc what extent are the Poles asserting their national interests undor the rubric of detente? How far will the Russians permit them to go? Is communism in Poland evolving toward something new and different? Questions such as these can not yet be answered, but developments in Poland during the past two years permit them to be addressed in a new light. Since the riots of December 1970 and the assumption of power by Edward Gierek, the material cir:tvrstanees of most Poles have improved measurably; the internal cZitical climate has become more open; and Warsaw has been conducti,ii j a more "active" foreign policy, though without challenging the ,5oulets. AZZ of this represents steady if unspectacular progress ;(''or Poland and perhaps, in the long run, for Western interests in Eur.)pe as well. Gierek owes his success partly to a more tolerant Soviet 2ttitude toward East European non- conformity, partly to his own prudence and resourcefulness, and partly to the new faces surrounding him, The Gierek team, in fact, represents a rather different kind of Communist leadership and one which could prove to be a model for other East European states. This memorandum was prepared in the Office of National Estimates and discussed with appropriate offsces in CIA., which are in agreement with its principal judgments. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SECRET The Lesson of 1970 1. In a sense, Gierek passed his most difficult test two years ago. The winter of 1970-1971 was traumatic. Gomulka's 1970 reforms involving a controversial wage incentive plan and an untimely increase in food prices triggered riots in several Polish cities. Gierek's skillful handling of the situation -- his repeal of the Gomulka directives, his reassuring visits to the scenes of the dis- orders, and his winning of the USSR's benevolent neutrality -- steered the country away from what he describes (perhaps with some exaggeration) as the "brink of civil war." Poland did not suffer the fate of Hungary in 1956. 2. Yet Gierek may be under greater handicaps than was Hungary's Kadar 14 years ago. Poland's condition was no- nearly so bad as Hungary's; Hungary had nowhere to go but up. Unlike Kadar, Gierek was not Moscow's hand-picked man, replacing someone the Soviets con- sidered a traitor; nor were his country's economic resources in total disarray; nor, finally, were his people stunned and depressed by Soviet military intervention. For the longer term, as we observed in 1971, "Gierek may find his job tougher than Kadar's -- the Soviets more SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SECRET suspicious, his people more impatient, and his economy harder to operate on."* More For the Consumer 3. Like most typical "socialist" states, Poland traditionally has emphasized production goals for industry, especially heavy industry, rather than those sectors of the.economy of direct interest to the consumer. Yet because the crisis which toppled Gomulka reflected worker and consumer grievances, the new regime has found it necessary to promise the Polish people repeatedly that consumer needs will be greatly upgraded in Polish economic planning. 4. Though such promises are obviously self-serving (and are treated with skepticism by the average Pole), the tangible gains in real wages and employment made to date and scheduled for the near term are impressive and suggest that Gierek wishes to assign these goals much higher priority than Gomulka. Thus, in 1971, the regime programmed an 18 percent rise in real wages through 1975. Revised estimates presented to the Polish parliament (Sejm) in December 1972 indicate that this target will be equalled or exceeded by the end of 1973. - 3 - SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 25X1 25X6 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 This means that the increase during the first three years under Gierek will match that of the last 10 years under Gomulka. And whereas Gomulka did not stress full employment, the Gierek regime has, and to this end is seeking to create nearly a million new jobs by 1975. The report to the Sejm last month suggests that employment too is expanding at a faster rate than originally planned. 5. To satisfy expected increases in consumer demand, the regime has been employing a number of short-term measures. The price freeze on basic food items, established two years ago, has been extended through 1973, although Gierek told the Polish trade union congress last November that the regime could not afford to subsidize the freeze indefinitely. Food and other consumer goods have been imported in large quantities (with the help of a Soviet hard currency loan of about 100 million dollars). A liberalized tourist agreement of January 1972 between Poland and East Germany resulted in such a massive shopping spree by the Poles (more than 9 million visited East Germany last year) that the Gierek regime had to apply currency restrictions at the end of the year; but meanwhile a lot of Poles had obtained needed consumer items. And for the past two years the regime has permitted Polish firms producing consumer goods to resort to such costly means as overtime and extra shifts in order to increase the availability of their products. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 L)J.:.vi.J.:I 6. Gomulka's planners would have avoided such measures, on principle; even more of a denarture are this regime's priorities over the longer term. For the dogmatists surrounding Gomulka, private automobiles represented unnecessary luxuries, housing construction was less worthwhile than other endeavors because it is "nonproductive," and the idea of prosperity of private farmers seemed immoral. The Gierek planners simply do not view matters the same way. By virtue of Warsaw's well-publicized agreement with Fiat, for example, Poland will begin to produce relatively inexpensive automobiles in 1973. Polish economists stress that it is not merely a question of satisfying the demand for automobiles but of creating a spinoff effect in other sectors of the economy. 7. Similarly, the regime's frontal attack on the housing problem is designed both to satisfy individual consumers and to repair a serious and long-neglected weakness in the infrastructure. Four out of every 10 habitable rooms in Polish urban areas were destroyed during World War II. Under Gomulka the housing problem in Poland remained acute. In 1970 only 140,000 apartments were con- structed, and this represented a decline from the previous year. The housing shortage not only imposed enormous social costs on the popula- tion, but severely restricted the rational exploitation of the labor force and the geographic dispersal of investment. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 8. Gierek has promise4 that each Polish family will have its own suitable dwelling unit by 1990. Polish officials estimate that about 7 million new apartments or houses will have to be completed between 1971 and 1990 in order to meet this goal (there are only about 8 million units of various types in all of Poland now). The regime's efforts are reflected in the Sejm's projections for housing in 1973 -- about 225,000 new units. The regime has also stated it will encourage private investment in housing construction. But even in the best of circumstances, the Poles will not make much progress in easing the housing shortage before the 1980's. 9. Since the decollectivization phase of the 1950's, Polish agriculture has been about 85 percent private and by East European standards is quite productive. However in recent years Gomulka's planners tridd to reduce the profit margin of the private farmer, and this misguided policy helped to create shortages of high quality foods. The measures adopted so far under Gierek seem intended to enhance the economic and social status of the private farmer and thereby his incentive to produce such foods. In so doing Gierek has virtually abandoned whatever commitment his predecessors had made to the eventual collectivization or "socialization" of the countryside. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 y.i.yl~i..1. 10. The first phase of the new agricultural policy was announced in April 1971 and implemented last January. The regime abolished the unpopular system of compulsory deliveries, increased state procurement prices, granted property titles to about a million private farmers, adopted tax laws to make easier the purchase of state lands, and extended free health care to~private farmers and their families. The second phase went into effect on 11 January 1973 and involves a major realignment of the rural administrative structure. More than 4000 rural "communities" are now replaced by some 2000 "parishes," each one under a "parish chief."* In the process a large .number of local officials, including Communist Party (PUWP) and Peasant Party officials, are to be retrained as agronomists, forcibly retired, or as a Politburo member has explained, simply sent "back to work at their farms." 11. What is basically involved here is the abolition of certain organizational vestiges of the collectivization era. Under the old system private farmers had to contend with a large number of poorly educated bureaucrats who had the power to meddle but not to help. The new system is designed to develop a corps of officials who have both the expertise to assist the farmers and the authority to adapt central directives to local conditions. Each parish is to become a kind of econoY;:ic and political microregion, with the parish chief acting somewhat like the director of a large enterprise. The term "parish chief" dates from the pre-Communist era. SECRE' Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 ? SECRET 12. So far the results of Gierek's agricultural policy have been favorable. Polish agriculture produced eight percent more in 1972 than in 1971, a rate of progress "not recorded in recent years,,", a regime spokesman told the Sejm last month. In particular, the over- all output of meat supply in the first half of 1972 was more than 24 percent higher than in 1971; an expected rise in state purchases of pork should boost that figure much higher in the next year or so. Milk purchases and butter production were about 20 percent higher last year than in 1971. Moreover, without unduly disrupting domestic supplies of potatoes, Poland last year was able to export a large quantity to the USSR on an emergency basis. Self-sufficiency in each branch of agriculture does not seem an attainable goal (or, economically, a very useful one) in the near future. but if present trends continue, Poland should be able to reestablish its traditional position as a net food exporter even while better satisfying domestic demand. Toward Economic Reform 13. The Gierek regime is moving cautiously in the direction of decentralizing economic decision-making and encouraging a greater role for material incentives and market mechanisms, but it has encountered several internal obstacles. Aside from the expected resistance of functionaries in the Party apparatus and government bureaucracy, there are some honest differences of opinion among Polish SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SECRET economists trying to blueprint the reforms. Not all of them agree, for example, on how to phase out inefficient firms without causing serious unemployment. i4. The tendency of the Polish reformers is to follow the Hungarian model, which is the most advanced in the Soviet camp, but still far short of a free market economy. A January 1973 reorganization of a few selected industrial enterprises, designed to give them greater latitude in determining investments and wages is a case in point. It is a cautious, limited experiment; even the word "reform" is proscribed in the decree. Of course all such discussion seems rather remote to the Polish consumer, who after all does not much care how an industry. is organized, or whether the prices are fixed or free, so long as better products are available and he has the money to pay for them. The Defense Burden 15. During the last five years of Gomulka's tenure, Polish defense expenditures rose steadily in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total budget and of GNP. And under Gierek they are still rising. In 1970 they represented just over nine percent of the total budget, while the announced budget for 1973 indicates SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 they are almost. 10 percent. The censored Polish press seldom refers to the defense burden, but the average Pole seems well aware of it.* 16. A body of reporting frow diplomatic and clandestine channels indicates that Gomulka was vexed by the size of Polish defense expenditures but that Gierek is more determined to reduce it. Exactly how he proposes to do this is not yet clear. Meanwhile he reportedly has under consideration a program for using a number of active duty military officers ;n non-military assignments. His rationale is that such officers have the education and administrative efficiency to perform well in civilian leadership posts, and that the regime actually needs them in such positions. (Because there is no great surplus of Polish officers, perhaps even a shortage, such a reassignment program could not be adopted on a large scale unless accompanied by reductions in the number of enlisted men as well.) 17. There seems to be considerable resistance in the Polish high command to reductions in the Polish armed forces, and to the * For example, a tape recording of Gierek'a January 1971 meeting with the shipyard workers in Szczecin (which recently became available in the West) includes his quotation_gf lines from a so-called "Szczecin Ballad," among them: "He LGomulka kept bread from the Polish nation,: but not tanks, because he got those from the East; Land so the PoZe/ caZZed Gierek to the helm." Gierek dissociated himself from the statement but did not cha"??enge its validity. SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 ZiEUKE i' whole nation of MBFR. Interestingly, this attitude is due, not to any fear that the Germans or others are about to attack Poland, but rather to a feeling that the nation has become a rather solid Number Two in the Warsaw Pact and ought not to risk any loss of that status. Some of Gierek's civilian advisers may be sympathetic to this line of argu- ment. Gierek certainly pays attention to it. He recognizes that the high command as a group stood with him and against Gomulka in December 1970. The military voice in the leadership is therefore somewhat louder than it was two years ago, and the Defense Minister is now a full member of the Politburo. 18. The Soviets probably will settle this issue for the Poles in the course of MBFR negotiations. If Moscow favors eventual reduc- tions in the "indigenous" forces, the Polish armed forces by their very size (more than 300,000) seem a prime candidate on the Warsaw Pact side. Certainly the Polish high command would not be able to resist pressure from both Gierek and Moscow for reductions. Toward a Broader Political Base 19. In addition to improving the nation's economy, Gierek is also trying to narrow the gap between the ruling PULP and the rest of the population. For one thing, Gierek himself appears before one 11 - SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 or another public gathering about once a week, and he has promised to continue this practice. His fellow Politburo members and other Party and government leaders follow his example. Although the Polish media report virtually nothing of the discussions themselves, Poles and the occasional Western observer concur that they are rather free-wheeling affairs, with audience questions touching on even the most sensitive subjects. Officials will frankly admit to these audiences that one or another measure is impossible because the Soviets would disapprove -- "We cannot permit another Czechoslovakia." 20. Moreover, the regime has been permitting non-Party groups a greater degree of autonomy. For example, workers are free to reject labor codes drafted by government officials and to take manage- ment to court for breaches of contract. That the courts often decide in favor of the workers is one of several indications that the judiciary is more independent than under Gomulka. The Writers' Union has been allowed to readmit members previously expelled for non- conformist views (e.g., sympathy for Czechoslovakia), and while authors are still subject to censorship, mildly provocative articles and SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SECKFe'1.' letters to the editor are permitted (even encouraged sometimes) by the regime.* 71. Moreover the Catholic Church is harassed less often in Poland nowadays than in any other Communist country, including Yugoslavia. Indeed, the Gierek regime has written off largo unpaid back taxes previously levied on church assets, eased the rate of taxation, and restored church titles to hundreds of sequestered buildings and lands. Last year the regime allowed religious leaders to invite Cardinal Krol, the Polish-born leader of the US hierarchy, to visit Poland (Gomulka had forbidden such an invitation), and Polish authorities helped airlift some 1,500 Polish Catholics to Porno for special religious ceremonies. 22. Thirdly, under the rubric of a new "cadre" policy, Gierek is limiting or at least modifying the influence of the PUWP apparat over the training and selection of leaders. Indeed A cane in point is the Polirh treaatrk7nt of Ruonian author Alokoandr Sol~henitnyn. In April 1972 the Soviet nmwnpaper Trud carried a lengthy attack reprinted from a Polish rownpapar on Solzhenitoyn'o Au.?unt 1914. In --oat ant European oountrian, nowadays, that would have boon the and of the ,natter. Not no in Gierek'a Poland. A few weaka later another Polish nr,wapaper publioliad a long latter pointing out, aionj; other things, that it was otrcn:ga indeed for Polon to attack a book not publiohod in Poland, and stranger still that no one in Poland had ever heard of thin critic, one "Jerzy Hcmarc.'nki" ("Romanownki" in in fact not only a Polish family ncm,e, but a slang c prension for "Runoian agent"). The letter-writer irrplied that then article had been ,orr,*,onsd in Russian and than badly translated into Polish. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SICItET (;lerek and his spokesman continue, to warn the PUWi', publicly and prIvately, that the rural reform is only a link in a chain of planned reforms in other area of Polish society, including the PUWP apparat. Training and skill. rathr;r than Party loyalty, are to be the operative criteria in the regime's selection of "cadres." There are signs that Gierek favors the appointment of non-Party personnel to certain positions fornx!rly held no a matter of course by Party members.* 23. Finally, Gierek has changed virtually the entire teary at the top. Of the 20 men i n the PUWP Politburo and Secretariat, 16 attained their present positions after Gomulka's departure in December 1970, and Gierek himself is the only full member of the Politburo to predate the Party changes of taovenber 1968 (when Gomulka began to lose effective control of the Party). All but 2 of the 19 provincial-level Party secretaries have been replaced since December 1970, and about half the PUWP Central committee. Further down the line, Party officials havo already screened about two-thirds of the general membership (of over 2 million), and additional changes in PUWP men>t5ershi n ;,re on the horizon. ! '1 !. /F l?) in MY 1971 th .(J:. {.lir- l h o f .' :.' 7:4'' ; M M .'x'...Maw akc naN,:., LiUar u R it if ?.'!a' )o :. d to I'(i? li rr that. taa rr.r, or bank it iyar be a i'UW1' l'.J~t,:"~ 1, l ;~ ? ' , mbar; in hLv ..l, r':i '::z::1 ";-'i I :rt / ;'r'cpt o" iiro "n up."rior in { r, ,.ret.ligGrCE ' and tr?rf cr'.:/:Jc' l'irt:I SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SI-XIAN''1? 24. this infusion of neew blood has resulted In much more than a simple change of entourages. the -.octal profile of the Polish ruling elite has changed radically. In mid-19611, and even in mid-1970, the top 20 In Poland rather resembled their 26 plodding counterparts in Bulgaria, at least In terms of formal education and years of Comnunist Party membership. Since then the Bulgarian elite has grown longer in the tooth but otherwise retains the same basic characteristics: less than half have college degrees or equivalent; and all but four Joined the Communist Party before the end of World War II. But now the educational background of the Polish elite is unequalled in any other Conmunist regime -- five Ph.D.s, eight others with master's degrees, the rest with diplomas from college or Party schools. Moreover, 14 of the 20 Joined the Polish Communist Party only after World War II had ended. Only one (Wladislaw Kruczek, the unpopular trade union chief) was a member of the Polish Co,t?t,,:r;ist Party before World War II began. The Postwar generation of Coninunists has come to the fore in Poland to a degree not matched elsewhere in Eastern Europe. 25. In estimating the likely behavior of Party leaders, age and education can of course be misleading. Gustav Husak, the Party First Secretary in Czechoslovakia, is much younger than Tito, and received far more formal education than Dubcek, yet in Western terms SECRE Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Is for less "progressive" than either one. But, the Soclnl and educn- tional level of the leadership as a whole A quite a different matter. Measured against either their predecessors under Gomulka or their counterparts elsewhere in Eastern Europe the Gierek men do indeed seem to be bettor qualified, more flexible., and more imaginative. 26. They are not professional revolutionaries. but trained administrators, searching for practical ways to improve the economic performances and living standards of their own industrial society. Probably because of their own impressive educational backgrounds. they seem especially eager to consult expert opinion. whether it is inside or outside the Communist Party or east or west of the Elbe. They prepare their domestic policies thoroughly, and for the most part carry them out consistently. Their approach to foreign policy problems is somewhat analogous to their acconnodation before December 1970 to Gomulka's authority. That is, they accept present realities, but they any opportunity for f yver4b1e change for ?he.r are alert ,. t ~c .~ - .. themselves and for Poland. 27. Regime spokesmen frequently refer to the "activization" of Polish foreign policy under Gierek, and presumably this rhetoric is intended to signify Warsaw's efforts to displ4y more initiative SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 SE.C R E`i' in affair,. t,hnn was .tomary under Ijomulka. As .'r urvey of the firstt, two year. of Ginrk' foreign policy would reveal, the rhet.orir; i.,, rather inflated. ( lit for the Wnt.y with Bonn munt he given to Gumulka, not Ginrek, 'loAt. Pole'': realize that President Nixon's visit to Wnrsnw, howover sr.' isfying to the regime and pnpulh- tinn. wa% a "+ideshoW to the Mti'.(ow tiri t and would not, havf? occurred but for the 115-Soviet rtu*rting. Gierr*i 's visit to Fran:o was basically only a .orotnonia1 rotiprocatinn for Pre?.idont do Gaulle'% rather murr_- significant tour of Poland in 196/, tiorn"vr'r, Warsaw's enrrgr,t.ir; pursuit of trade and aid 1grrvrncnt% with Wr;tern countries has been successful to the extent it has 1argoly hecnu?.r? of the exCei lent credit standing achieved in f;omulka's last five years. In power.' Fi. Glerek and his associates have shrtwn no di spnsition to challenge the Soviets on any major foreign policy issue, includin(t especially those issues cnncernino Europe. On the contr4py, the Polish leaders were distinctly uneasy over Romania's insistence at the first round of CSC[ preparatory talks that all participants br_ 1:/ "r'..' than .. third ' 14:00 A:'.e .?'i f r:&: in ... r'i the ! ,'; ,... -- 1 ifr rJi.' r!;.a".a f.. . 'ir ;. a, .?ra r.:'? ? with ??r , Yale 'i?~i r:'ir?(y. The r'."' ~ F%{. ,~ ? " ? ' I'i. Can tj :%" r 1, r.. iii K00 10 i ;?R. _ ' T : . . A ,r Or is - :?: ;q '.-r. . . at N'".?i! i',,,, ? i ' " ' ) . " . '). ? . + ':'ra. ..'J' A. . the 7..%f,.' ' f: a _ na a ? ., W r..~.:'; i rive in (' rr a, t~. i1.',:: ( ,. , I???~!1' ::. .. !i i~ i`:fT[ : n t. 'r r . SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 t.rratod as ,ovprr'i!in ',t,at.rs rn,joyinq r'+:+ral ririht.',. Gir'rr!k ;h(rwed hi-, and the ovirts' di',ilea,ure by c;amm of l in!; ,r ;c:hnd(Jle1 mr(Itin'i with This Gie.-r'k. rpdim+" fr ir' +,ni) otlwr that l?nmania'', IPhavior mir,ht, causrt Mo`,'.rhl to tdflhtr.n. not. I0o' 'n. hold over thn rest of (.astern i.urolm. Me Polls-, br,l1rve that thr+ d?omaninra propo Itlon i unre.alistI : in any r: ':r; they accept, their junior ;tlLu-, t.hr= I1SSl?, As a Polish diplomat. r'.e.ntIy noted, "Pound ha: final Iy comr' to .r'rnr, wi th hi", tort'. rir(rg-.tphy and p(m(Ir. " ?.?. beyond thi',, thrwrri ,erm% to hr' a .tr(:onfl fooling in Warsaw that Poland's alliance with the U')':R nerd riot be a; con fininq a; it once wa . in thr wake of the i'rrrsidential vi ;its to d4o,cow and ktar aw last year. nor pri}minent Polish c.nrsnr,ntator advanced the intririuinrl notion that the "roll of thr .middlr powers'" (read: Poland; "increases prcoportionately to th< proggrr: of detente in Iast-Wet relation.." Apparently co-v, Poll; ,are evr'n ready to bel inye that the Russian, w i l l ;r3r7r'day of ow `. a "'',o ~(3t,'?t %t:,rt'RFrr ai t+r to ..v+.u gradually into a rather comfortable arr.an,tcne_r+t liVr! the! British Co: '+onwealth. They arglue that Warsaw's "pro-(?ussian course" i.; no lonr-xr incor-';tatible with other international association., including t.ic,; with Poland's "traditional friend; in the West." 30. In the context of seeking tie. with "traditional friends" the Gierek regirse has begun to ;hriw particular interest in "Polonia." - 18 - SI.CREl' Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 the body of people pnrmanvntiy living abroad who are either native Poles or of (lirec,t Polish extraction. slii:, does represent. a departure from the pattern of postwar Polish foreign policy, Prior to Gierek's accession, Warsaw was generally hostile or indifferent to Polonia. and Polonia reciprocated in kind. lnrirrad from the rnid-1960's onward relations with Polonia were under the. general supervision of secret policeman tliecxyslaw Mocnar, whose jackbooted Jin(toisni offended his presumed audience and who, in any case, devoted most of his energies to factional struggles within the i'LJWI'. 31. Gierek made his first direct approach to Polonia in Septen#aer 1971 -- not lone; after 1'oc,7ar' removal from power -- when he unexpectedly showed up at the Conggre.ss of Polish Technicians and appealed to the delegates from foreign countries "r 0. merely as Party first Secretary. but is one who has lived abroad for 22 years and has something in corivon with emigres." What Gierek asked for then, and his subordinates have asked for Since, is not Just Polonia' s goodwill but Polonia' "advice, friendly corrx!nts, and critical remarks" -- in other words, expertise. Polonia's scientists and engineer:,, if they are willing, should help Polish industry improve its products. Polonia's businessmen should help market these products. And Polonia's housewi ves and consumers should "buy Pol i :h. " SECRET Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 Approved For Release 2007/08/05: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000120035-4 V. As an ox-emigre Gierek may he overrating the importance of Polonia, or at least his ability to use it to Poland's advantage. Nevertheless, Polonia does represent a potentially rich and so far unexploi ted resource. While the regime's statistics may be question- able. it is clear that the Polish diat:pora is quite large relative to the 33 million people presently in Poland.* Moreover, these Poles abroad are located in countries which are of considerable interest to Poland's exporters. Many of them are professional people and (according to the regime's f'iqures) about 15,000 own businesses. 33. To gain Polonia'_, goodwill and cooperation, the regime is offering, broadly speaking, an ethnic point of reference. Poles abroad are now encouraricd to visit, vacation, study. even retire in the "old country." Foreign authors of Polish ancestry are promised an oppor- tunity to publish their works in Poland. Polonia's religious and political leaders are now welcome. Permitting Cardinal Krol's visit :(Ti is :C"''' :/ r'17 ... ..:tl. !~::.1! .:) t'~~ ?Til i?:/ 1:?r'., .'ti?/ :: rj ,_?. f T 17 t1. ,,.:j'ti i}_/iiir: J, r. r.a t 1't' t'~, rTi : ?~~. ' PT, (. ..('J: : J: