NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010058-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 12, 2012
• Sequence Number: 58
• Publication Date: September 14, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret 219
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
0 Wednesday 14 September 1977 CG NIDC 77-214C
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Declassified
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Soma
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254
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National Intellicren e Daily Cable for ur
-p_npReinv id q h
1977.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of
informing senior US officials.
CONTENTS
FRANCE: Leftist Summit Meeting
SOUTH KOREA: Political Prisoners
ITALY: Parliamentary Debate
SPAIN: Peaceful Catalan Carnival
IRAN: Assassination Attempt
SOUTH AFRICA: Leader Dies in Prison
PAKISTAN: Bhutto Released on Bail
CUBA - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - HAITI
COLOMBIA: National Labor Strike
NORWAY: Early Election Returns
BRIEFS:
Somalia - Saudi Arabia
Norway
Zaire
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FRANCE: Leftist Summit Meeting
//Leaders of the French Left Alliance of Commu-
nists, Socialists, and Left Radicals meet today to try to re-
solve serious disagreements over revisions of their Common Pro-
gram for Governing that have provoked acrimonious public ex-
changes for several weeks. The Communists want to commit the
Socialists to as radical a program as possible in advance of
the victory they expect in the legislative election in March.
The Communists think Socialist dominance of the alliance will
increase following the election. The USSR, meanwhile, has ap-
parently indicated that it prefers the present French Govern-
ment to remain in power.//
//The Socialists have consistently rejected the
Communists' major proposals and generally are adopting a "take
it or leave it" approach. Communists stubborness may result in
the alliance's inability to campaign with a joint platform. Ac-
cording to the press, Socialist spokesmen have indicated that
a second meeting--probably within two weeks--may be necessary
to smooth over the dispute.//
//The governing coalition is buoyed by the left's
dissension and by the latest opinion poll, which shows a 15
percentage point drop since June in the number of those who
expect the left to win in March. The polls have not, however,
shown a change in the 53 to 54 percent of the voters who say
they will vote for the leftist parties.//
ent
//The government is also pleased by Moscow's appar-
reference that the pre -8 overnment remain in power.
This preference may ?ecome
apparent later this year if, as expected, the Soviets give
Prime Minister Barre first-class treatment during his visit
to Moscow.//
//Barre hopes to boost his popularity by a series
of "important international missions"--including trips to the
US, USSR, and China--before the election. His travels will re-
ceive broad coverage in the pro-government French press, and
he hopes that his successes will improve the chances of other
candidates from the governing majority. French legislative
races are not won on foreign policy issues, however, and any
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increase in Barre's popularity is likely to be so diluted in
districts other than his own that it will have little effect
on the national election results.//
//A favorable reception of Barre by the Soviet
leadership would be reminiscent of Chervonenko's well-publi-
cized visit to Giscard in the waning hours of the presidential
election campaign of 1974. It would also reflect the poor rela-
tionship between the Soviet and French Communist parties. The
nature of this relationship was evident in June when French
Communist leader Marchais refused to meet with Soviet President
Brezhnev during his visit to Paris.//
//The current strains in party-to-party relations
were caused in part by the French party's assertion of its au-
tonomy and its criticism of Soviet violations of human rights.
Even before these strains developed, Moscow was nervous about
the French Communists' participating in the Left Alliance; the
Soviets feared that ultimately the French Communists would fall
under the ideological sway of the numerically stronger Social-
ists or be dismissed by the Socialists if the Alliance were to
win power.//
25:0 //The rise of Eurocommunism has only added to
these anxieties. It seems likely that the Soviets are now con-
cerned that a victory by the Left Alliance would encourage
other West European Communist parties to become more independent
25:0 of Moscow.
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SOUTH KOREA: Political Prisoners
//The South Korean Government has abandoned
its policy of phased release of political prisoners that began
earlier this summer. A South Korean official said recently
that domestic pressure for additional releases has eased. An-
other factor probably is the government's belief that US atten-
tion has shifted from the prisoner issue to the Pak Tong-sun
affair.//
//The South Koreans may release a few more
prisoners for Korean Thank8giving on 27 September, but the gov-
ernment has given up trying to persuade well-known imprisoned
dissidents, including opposition leader Kim Tae-chung, to sign
statements of repentance so that they can be freed. The families
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of a number of prisoners, who have publicly sought a more ex-
tensive and unconditional amnesty program, reportedly have been
worn down by government resistance.//
//Various dissident figures who remain free
continue to speak out against President Pak in hopes of reviv-
ing the opposition movement. Government security services have
shown some leniency in such cases and often go to considerable
lengths to avoid a confrontation. They continue, however, to
arrest and try the most militant offenders.//
//There are signs that some opposition politi-
cians may try to exploit the Pak Tong-sun case during the Na-
tional Assembly session that opens on Tuesday. The major oppo-
sition party, charging that the affair has damaged US - South
Korean relations, has called for an investigation. At this
point it seems unlikely that critics of the President will draw
any major advantage, since most South Koreans probably support
the government's position against the extradition of Pak Tong-
sun.
ITALY: Parliamentary Debate
The Italian parliament began debate yesterday over
responsibility for the escape of Nazi war criminal Herbert
Kappler from a hospital in Rome "last month. The Communist Party
appears ready to blame Christian Democratic Defense Minister
Lattanzi? and to push for his resignation--a move that would
strain relations between the two parties and possibly weaken
Prime Minister Andreotti's base of support in parliament.
The carabinieri guards on duty at the time of
are subordinates of the Defense Ministry.
25:0 the decision to attack the
Defense Minister probably is an attempt to show the Communist
rank and file that the party has not lost its willingness to
fight, despite its tacit support for the Andreotti government
during the last year. Communist supporters are showing signs
of increasing concern over the close relatinship they see de-
veloping between the party leadership and the government.//
25:0 The Communist Party's concern about its image has
been heightened, moreover, by the approach of an important
round of local elections in November. These contests, involving
Kappler's escape
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about 10 percent of the Italian electorate, will provide the
most significant test of voter sentiment since the parliamen-
tary election of June 1976, in which the Communists scored un-
precedented gains.
The Christian Democrats concern over their image is
likely to strengthen the party's resistance to pressures for
Lattanzio's resignation. They are worried, as the elections
draw near, about justifying their acceptance of Communist sup-
port to Christian Democratic traditionalists. As a result, the
Christian Democratic leadership has in recent weeks taken a
more combative line toward the Communists in order to counter
the impression that the two parties are drifting toward a gov-
ernmental alliance.
25:0 Thus the stage is set for a confrontation between
t e two parties if the Communists try to force Lattanzio's
resignation. Andreotti's best defense in any maneuvering will
be to stress the continuing absence of a realistic alternative
to his government.
SPAIN: Peaceful Catalan Carnival
25:0 The peaceful rally by more than a million Catalans
in Barcelona on Sunday is a clear sign that the Spanish Govern-
ment's new approach toward resolving regional demands is bear-
ing fruit. The Basque problem will be more difficult to solve,
but the Catalan example could provide the key.
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The festive mood of the crowd celebrating Catalonia's
national day was in part a reaction to news leaked the night
before that the re-establishment of the Generalitat--the re-
gional government of Catalonia during the second Pepublic--is
imminent. According to press reports, Madrid, the Catalan gov-
ernment in exile, and the Catalan members of the national par-
liament have reached agreement, and royal decree laws will be
issued soon to establish a president and executive council of
Catalonia. Josep Tarradellas, president of the Catalan govern-
ment in exile, will be named president.
The specific powers of the provisional Generalitat
will apparently be largely symbolic, at least until agreement
is reached on how much power will be transferred to it from the
national and provincial governments. Ultimately, the power of
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the Generalitat
tonomy in
parliament.
will depend on the provisions for regional au-
the new constitution now being drafted in the national
The provisional Generalitat, in the meantime, will
of representation and negotiation rather than leg-
Re-establishment of the Generalitat nevertheless is
step forward for Catalan nationalists who seem
with the expected decrees.
The re-establishment of the Generalitat is clearly a
coup for Prime Minister Suarez. He has apparently
in undercutting Catalan leftists who played on re-
have powers
islation.
a significant
satisfied
political
succeeded
gional sentiments effectively in the parliamentary election
last June and won most of the seats in the four Catalan prov-
inces.
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The move will reduce some pressures on Suarez and may
make It easier for his minority government to pick up votes
from moderates in the regions on crucial issues. It may also
improve the fortunes of Suarez' Union of the Democratic Center
in the municipal elections due to be held before the end of the
year.
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Tarradellas, an anti-Communist moderate who remains
a symbol of the autonomy Catalonia enjoyed before the Civil
War, could also serve as a restraining influence on the leftist-
dominated politicians of the region.
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Easing of tensions in Catalonia could, in turn, pave
the way for a solution of the Basque problems that have bedev-
iled Madrid since Franco's death. The Basque knot, however,
will be more difficult to unravel, partly because there is less
agreement among Basques on how much autonomy they want, and
partly because of the legacy of bitterness and violence in that
region. If the Catalan experiment succeeds, however, there will
be precedent for Madrid to work out a similar arrangement for
the Basque provinces.
IRAN: Assassination Attempt
25:0 The unsuccessful attempt yesterday to kill the Shah
of Iran's twin sister in southern France, almost certainly the
work of Iranian terrorists, once more highlights the capabilities
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of the Shah's enemies. Although Princess Ashraf was uninjured,
a woman companion was killed and two other persons wounded when
the terrorists sprayed their car with automatic weapons fire.
Ashraf, with her colorful personal life, symbolizes
for many Iranians the corruption that was said to pervade the
royal court.
The group responsible for the assassination attempt
is pro a ly the European wing of one of the two terrorist groups
operating in Iran. Iranian terrorists have carried out previous
assassinations, including those of several Americans serving in
Iran.
25:0 Over the years, dissident operations against the royal
family have included two attempts to kill the Shah, an attempt
in 1971 to kill or kidnap Ashraf's son, and a plot in 1974 to
kill or kidnap the Shah, the Empress, or the Crown Prince. In
addition, terrorists have seriously wounded an Iranian intelli-
gence officer in Paris and raided the Iranian Consulate in
Geneva, where they made off with the files of the Iranian se-
curity organization operating there.
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Terrorist groups in Iran have been quiescent for more
taan a year following a police campaign that killed some of the
top leaders. The terrorists may be turning to attacks outside
Iran, where security is looser, to demonstrate they still have
the ability to attack the regime and to encourage their coun-
terparts within Iran to regroup and rearm.
25:0
SOUTH AFRICA:
Leader Dies in Prison
The death in prison of a prominent black South Afri-
can political
activist, Steve Biko, may provide a rallying
point for black activists and spark a wide range of interna-
tional
criticism.
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Biko was reportedly in good health when he was de-
taine
on
19 August. He is believed to have been the 18th per-
son to die since March 1976 while under detention without trial.
The circumstances of many of these deaths suggest torture by
security officials.
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25:0 The 30-year-old Biko was considered one of the lead-
ers of the growing Black Consciousness movement in South Africa.
He was the founder and first president of the South African Stu-
dents Organization, a group of black university students. He
also was active in other organizations, including the Black
Peoples Convention.
25:0 Biko's recent detention was his third in the past six
mon s. lespite government restrictions on his activities, he
had been open in his contacts with black political activists.
The government had kept him under constant surveillance but has
been unsuccessful in several attempts to convict him of offenses.
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The US Embassy in Pretoria notes that South African
security legislation creates an environment for prisoner abuse.
The government has ignored demands for an independent inquiry
into the conditions under which security detainees are held and
interrogated.
PAKISTAN: Bhutto Released on Bail
The release on bail yesterday of Pakistani former
Prime Minister Bhutto could further complicate plans to hold
an election on 18 October. According to the US Embassy, pres-
sure from senior military officers to take stronger action
against Bhutto or postpone the election is likely to mount--
especially if Bhutto appears to be getting a favorable popular
response after the election campaign opens next week.
Many observers believe that the court action has
strengthened Bhutto. They see his release as a moral victory
and believe he has gained sympathy and made the military gov-
ernment appear ineffectual. Chief Martial Law Administrator
Zia-ul-Haq had stated publicly that Bhutto would be convicted
of murder; by allowing bail for such a charge, the court im-
plied that the case against Bhutto is far from conclusive.
Although Bhutto's arrest earlier this month did not
bring either violence or a boycott of the election by his party,
rearresting him could produce a stronger reaction from his fol-
lowers. It would also increase sympathy for the former Prime
Minister and strengthen his claim that the charges against him
are politically motivated.
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CUBA - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
- HAITI
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At least two
Cuban MIG-21 fighters apparently flew
over Haiti and the Dominican
Republic on Saturday in an inci-
dent that could prompt a Dominican protest at the UN. This was
the first known overflight of the island by Cuban fighters; the
flights apparently were in reaction to the Dominican seizure
of a Cuban
fishing boat last week.
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On Monday, two high-level Dominican officials told
the US defense
attache that five jets flew over the northern
coastal city of Puerto
craft were Cuban MIGs.
Plata. The officials believed the air-
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According to the Dominican officials, one low-flying
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jet dropped
an auxiliary fuel tank near the pier where the
Dominicans held the Cuban fishing boat. If the Dominicans can
identify the fuel tank
at the UN.
as Cuban, they plan to lodge a protest
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The Cubans
have not previously violated Haitian or
Dominican airspace, and
the apparent show of strength was prob-
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ably triggered by the fishing boat incident. The Dominicans,
suspecting the boat was transporting contraband, fired shots
at the boat and later took it into Puerto Plata. No Cubans were
injured and the boat was subsequently released.
COLOMBIA: National Labor Strike
zati-ons
Leaders of Colombia's four major labor organi-
are set to stage a 24-hour nationwide work stoppage
today to protest the high cost of living. The approximately 5
million workers who are expected to participate in the strike
reportedly have the support of a number of leftist political
groups. President Lopez, acting under state of siege regula-
tions that have been in effect for more than a year, has de-
clared the strike illegal. Other political leaders, including
former President Lleras, have criticized the government's han-
dling of the situation.
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In addition to demanding wage increases, labor lead-
rs nave insisted that the state of siege be lifted, that the
universities--which were closed several months ago following
student uprisings--be reopened, and that an agrarian reform
program be undertaken. Communist and leftist political groups
have echoed the unions' demands.
Government officials label the proposed strike "po-
litically subversive" and have vowed to quash it. Labor spokes-
men have reaffirmed that the "labor struggle" will continue re-
gardless of any action against the workers. Given the govern-
ment's strict anti-inflation policy, a last-minute wage settle-
ment is extremely unlikely.
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The national election
is scheduled for next April,
and Lopez's ruling Liberal
Party
could
be
hurt at the polls
un-
less he can overcome this
latest
threat
to
public order.
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NORWAY: Early Election Returns
Norwegian Prime Minister Odvar Nordli's Labor Party
apparently came close to a parliamentary majority in the general
election that concluded yesterday. The victory reflects a re-
surgence of confidence in the party, whose electoral fortunes
waned severely in 1973.
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Labor appears to have won 77 of a possible 155 seats 25X1
in parliament. This means it will probably have to rely on the
single seat won by its prickly ally, the Socialist Left Party,
which has attacked Labor for its pro-NATO and pro-Western posi-
tions. Another possible partner, however, is the Liberal Party,
which won two seats and is more supportive of Labor's foreign
policies.
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The Conservative Party, senior member in an opposi-
tion non-socialist coalition that includes the Center and Chris-
tian People's parties, won 42 seats, but its gains were miti-
gated by heavy Center Party losses. With some votes still out,
changes in the projected seat count may occur, but a Labor
government is virtually assured in any event.
Socialist and non-socialist forces will be almost
evenly balanced in parliament. The dramatic demise of the minor
parties indicates, however, that a significant shift to the
center from both ends of the political spectrum has occurred.
In this situation, Nordli, who represents the moderate-conserva-
tive wing of his party, will find broad support for his policies.
At the same time, the near success of the non-Socialists in un-
seating Nordli is expected to counter somewhat the demands of
Labor's leftist wing for more socialist programs.
The present cabinet will remain intact after the new
parliament convenes in early October. Labor's electoral success
will allow the government to focus immediately on some of the
problems Norway faces and avoid some of the intense political
maneuvering that followed its 1973 campaign.
The most important foreign policy issues facing the
government--the Barents Sea fishing and boundary question, and
the fishing protection zone and other jurisdiction questions
on Svalbard Island--will involve difficult negotiations with
the Soviets and require broad support among major parties.
Domestically, Labor will probably continue an expan-
sionist economic policy, against the wishes of the Christian
People's and Center parties. It will use its influence in labor
unions to control wage increases, which have hurt the competi-
tiveness of Norwegian products in international markets. Oil
development will be pursued aggressively and more nationaliza-
tions are likely. Personal income tax will probably rise as
heavy investment in the ex ensive soc al security system con-
tinues.
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Somalia - Saudi Arabia
BRIEFS
Somali President Siad arrived yesterday in Saudi Arabia,
where he was met by the Crown Prince and several ranking Saudi
officials who deal with defense matters. His visit is another
indication that Somalia may be in serious need of additional
financial and military aid to compensate for its losses in
Ethiopia and for declining Soviet support.
The Somali search for aid extends in several directions.
Somalia Is now entertaining a Chinese delegation and there are
reports, still unconfirmed, that the Somali Defense Minister
was in Egypt last week.
Norway
Norwegian Prime Minister Nordli will attempt to keep
t e minority Labor government in power although late returns
from absentee voters deprived him of a one-seat majority in
parliament. The Labor Party yesterday claimed victory, and the
three-party nonsocialist coalition conceded defeat. Labor and
the coalition of nonsocialist parties are now deadlocked with
76 seats apiece, two short of a majority. The Socialist Left
Party holds one seat, but the Liberal Party's two seats are the
decisive factor.
Major party leaders accepted yesterday that Nordli
should head a caretaker government until parliament convenes
in October. In the interim, both sides will begin bargaining
for Liberal support.
During the campaign, Liberals sought support for a
coalition with the Center and Christian People's parties, which
had formed a nonsocialist alliance with the Conservative Party.
The Liberals, however, have been reluctant to support govern-
ments dominated by either Labor or Conservatives because of
fundamental disagreements on economic and environmental poli-
cies.
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Zaire
The death sentence levied Tuesday by a Zairian secu-
rity court against former Foreign Minister Nguza for treason
is likely to be commuted by President Mobutu to imprisonment.
Mobutu had announced the firing and arrest of Nguza last month
for allegedly withholding warning of the invasion in March of
Shaba Region by anti-Mobutu exiles.
Early in the invasion, when Mobutu's political stand-
ing appeared precarious, some prominent Zairians privately men-
tioned Nguza as a likely candidate to succeed the President.
25:0 Mobutu, having made the point that he does not tol-
erate indiscipline and disloyalty, probably will see that the
death sentence is not carried out. Commutation of the sentence
would be a useful show of magnanimity that would be in line
with Mobutu's recognition of US and other foreign concern over
human rights in Zaire.
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