ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150049-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: November 13, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8228/74
13 November 1974
Copy N2 430
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Trade Negotiations Meeting Set for January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
West Germany: Tight Policies Aggravate European Trade
Deficits . . . . . . 4
Western Europe: Darkening Skies for the Civil Aircraft Industry . . . . , . 6
World Edible Oil Prices to Remain High . 8
CIPEC: More Talks on Action to Support Copper Prices . . . . . . . . 11
Canada: Fertilizer Plans Threatened .; . 11
OPEC Oil Receipts to Decline in Early 1975 12
Notes, Publication of Interest, Statistics
The World Economy continues to be buffeted from several directions.
Industrial production in the seven major OECD countries, already below the August
1973 levels, slid further in September. Japanese production is 7% below 1973 levels,
German output 51% below. In France a wave of strikes has combined with growing
weakness in consumer and investment demand to cut back industrial growth.
Consumer Prices are still on the rise. Prices in the major Western industrial
countries are averaging about 15% above year-earlier levels, with Japanese and Italian
indexes up more than 20%. Prices in major LDCs in Asia are 35% higher than
a year ago; inflation in Latin America, excluding Chile, is averaging about 20%.
Rising labor costs promise to keep the inflation rolling. Despite little or no gain
in productivity, labor unions are demanding catch-up pay hikes of 15% to 20%.
Concern Over Current Food Shortages dominated the first week's talk at the
World Food Conference. With the Conference expected to settle into working
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Secret
sessions, the emphasis should shift to the long-run objectives of improving
agricultural productivity, food security, sharing of data, and international trading
arrangements. The USSR remains unwilling to commit itself to an exchange of
trade data, which delegates consider an integral part of a cooperation effort.
Meanwhile, world wheat and feedgrain stocks are estimated by USDA at five weeks'
consumption, the lowest level since comprehensive records were initiated in 1960.
Little Progress Was Made in International Meetings last week toward raising
prices of iron ore, bauxite, tin, and copper.
? Iron ore producers failed even to agree on forming an organization.
? The International Bauxite Association made no firm decisions in the
important areas of pricing and taxation.
? The International Tin Council agreed only to resume discussion of raising
support prices in January 1975.
? Copper producers meeting in Lima made no apparent progress on prices;
the issue will be on the agenda of a Foreign Ministers' meet i!ig next
week.
The Price of Go!d soared to a record level in London last week as speculation
continued on the effects of private US ownership. The price was fixed at a new
high of $183 per ounce on Friday afternoon but declined on rumors that private
US ownership mi ht be delayed beyond the end of the year
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Secret
TRADE NEGOTIATIONS MEETING SET FOR JANUARY
The Tokyo round of multilateral trade negotiations will begin in earnest with
the meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC) in Geneva on 21 January.
Originally scheduled for last month, the meeting has been delayed to allow time
for passage of the US Trade Reform Act.
The Geneva session will be important in setting the tone for the negotiations,
since US and EC negotiators presumably will enter with approved mandates. The
conduct of the participants will reflect the urgency that the respective countries
attach to the negotiations. The main task will be to make substantial progress
on remaining procedural questions; including whether agricultural negotiations
should be conducted separately or integrated with the tariff and non-tariff barriers
discussions.
The EC Council is expected to ratify a Community negotiating position before
the end of 1974, along the following lines:
? Higher tariff rates should be cut more than lower rates, with the
reductions averaging 25% to 50%.
? Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) should be negotiated on a case-by-case basis,
and the benefits should be confined to countries participating in the NTB
negotiations where reductions go beyond existing GATT provisions.
GATT Article XIX, which allows import restrictions in case of market
disruption, should be retained but with some revision to allow more
flexible application.
? Export restrictions should be subject to a general code of conduct, and
agreements exchanging price or tariff concessions for guaranteed supplies
should be negotiated on a case-by-case basis.
? Agriculture should be handled separately in the negotiations; a;t
international framework for coordinating agricultural policies should be
established; and international agreements covering milk, grains, and sugar
should be concluded.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed. 25X1
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These guidelines should be acceptable to EC members other than France. Paris
prefers a more detailed set of instructions covering only tariffs, selected NTBs,
and agriculture. Observers within the Community nonetheless doubt that the French
will veto or delay adoption of the guidelines. Less is known of the Canadian and
Japanese approaches to the negotiations.
Progress on the thorny issues of tariff harmonization and trade liberalization
for agricultural commodities is likely to be slow. Canada and the United States
have basic differences with the EC and Japan, which are striving to protect domestic
producers while securing guaranteed access to foreign supplies. Wide differences
remain on the procedure for negotiating tariff reductions. Canada has proposed
sectoral negotiations rather than the across-the-board approach put forward by the
United States and the EC. Early resolution of this question by working groups
recently established in GATT is unlikely.
WEST GERMANY: TIGHT POLICIES AGGRAVATE EUROPEAN
TRADE DEFICITS
Bonn's decision in early 1973 to control inflation at the expense of growth
has been adding to the monumental payments problems of its neighbors.
Other West European countries have seen a near doubling in their combined
trade deficit with West Germany during January-August, compared with the same
period last year. Trade with West Germany accounted for $5 billion of the $22
billion rise in the total deficit incurred by the rest of Europe in this period.
Purchases of German industrial pi?oducts, such as steel, paper, and machinery, rose
markedly while sales of non-oil products to West Germany lagged far behind. The
trade balance with the rest of the world, excluding oil producers, improved by
about $5 billion.
The mounting surplus with Europe is tied directly to the impact of Bonn's
austerity program on domestic demand, down 3% since early 1973. German import
demand has stagnated in real terms.
In contrast, growth in most other West European countries continued at a
rapid pace into early 1974, buoy;-g demand for Germann products. German export
sales to Western Europe were 39% higher in the first eight months of this year
than in the comparable 1973 period. Volume change accounted for about one-third
of the rise.
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Changes In West European Trade Balances*
Ja,i-Aug 1974 Compared With Jan-Aug 1973
With West Germany
Total trade
TOTAL WESTERN EUROPEAN UNITED
EUROPE COMMUNITY FRANCE ITALY KINGDOM NETHERLANDS
Lo L1 Q5 2
France and Italy have suffered the worst deterioration in trade balances with
West Germany. These two countries' combined deficit increased $2.1 billion in
January-August, which accounted for nearly one-third of the rise in their total
deficits.
Because the economic slowdown has spread to much of Western Europe, the
German trade surplus with neighboring countries has been narrowing in recent
months. In July and August, it averaged $1.2 billion, compared with $1.5 billion
during the first half. The total for the year will be about $15 billion.
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West Germany: Trade with Other West European Countries
Jan-Aug 1974
Jan-Aug
1973
Exports
Imports
Balance Balan
ce (f.o.b.)
(f.o.b.)
France
1,012 2,0
16
7,014
4,998
(27.6)1
(7.2)
Italy
234 1,3
17
4,912
3,595
(39.9)
(9.7)
United Kingdom
800 1,27
2
2,753
1,481
(39.9)
(25.3)
Belgium-Luxembourg
182 62
9
4,437
3,808
(29.1)
(:5.9)
Netherlands
-385 -17
4
5,882
6,056
(32.8)
(25.4)
Total EC
2,338 5,89
7
26,463
20,566
(33.6)
(18.0)
Total Western Europe
6,200 11,28
9
35,594
24,305
(39.0) (18.1)
1. Data in parentheses indicate percentage change over comparable period in 1973.
WESTERN EUROPE: DARKENING SKIES
FOR THE CIVIL AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
Major manufacturers of civil aircraft in Western Europe - concentrated in
France, the United Kingdom, West Germany, and the Netherlands - have been
rocked by a new series of unfavorable developments:
? a flood tide of red ink in the financial reports of many international
airlines, including several in Western Europe;
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? cancellation by Iberia Airlines of its order for four of the consortium-built
A-300 Airbuses; and
? Hawker-Siddeley's decision to halt development work on the new
four-engine HS-146, 100-passenger feeder-line aircraft,
Rising fuel costs and lagging traffic have caused carriers to hold down their
commitments for additional aircraft.
Both the Anglo-French Concorde and the Airbus are faltering. French support
of the Concorde, formerly unwavering, was shaken when government officials
mentioned a $90 million price for aircraft past the initial production run of 16.
At the current $45 million price, which itself is triple the original estimate, only
nine Concordes have been sold - all to the captive markets of Air France and
British Airways. Iran, the only other potential customer in the near future, may buy
two by the end of 1974.
Orders for the A-300 Airbus - a joint effort of France, United Kingdom,
West Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain - have been slow. Delays in production
schedules in 1969-70 allowed US manufacturers to get a two-year jump on deliveries
of the competing wide-bodied McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and Lockheed L-1011.
Sales to date of 23 aircraft are less than one-tenth of the estimated breakeven
point of 250.
France has experienced a host of difficulties with other new aircraft, including
the 150-passenger Mercure, the short-haul Falcon 30, and the Corvette executive
jet. In the United Kingdom, the heavy costs of the Concorde have absorbed funds
needed for the development of other aircraft. West Germany and the Netherlands,
less involved in the major consortiums, have had some success with two short-range
aircraft, the jointly manufactured F-28 and the new VFW Fokker 614.
The civil aircraft industry in Western Europe, more so than in the United
States, is underpinned by the extensive military aircraft program. Thus the current
debate about a new NATO fighter has enormous implications for the economic
viability of the entire West European aerospace industry.
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WORLD EDIBLE OIL PRICES TO REMAIN HIGH
World prices of edible oil 140
are expected to remain near rec- in ee se dex of Volume
ord levels for at least another year.
The price of US soybean
oil-pacesetter for edible oil
prices--has risen $210 above last
year's peak level, to $950 per ton.
Preferred substitutes, such as pea-
nut and sunflower seed oil, are
selling at even higher prices-
about double prices in the fall of
1973.
Prices of edible oil have been eo
soaring in the last two years
because of
? accelerating demand in
the face of a 2% decline
in world production of
edible oil in 1973;
? a drop in world oilseed
stocks to rock-bottom
levels it mid-1973, nec-
essitating temporary
US export controls;
? continuing limitations
on sales of Brazilian
soybean oil and Soviet
sunflower seed oil,
which have further cut
export supplies; and
7'/12 72/73 13/74 1914/75
Crop year
Stocks as a Percent of Consumption
11
Major Oilseeds:
World Consumption and Stocks
Crop year
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USDA projects world production of edible oil in 1975 at 45.5 million tons, a 1 %
decline from the 1974 level. A 20% drop in the current US soybean harvest-the source
of one-fourth of world oil export supplies-is the major factor in this anticipated
decline. Soviet sunflower seed and Indian peanut crops are also lower than last year's
bumper crops. These declines should be partially offset by the good soybean harvest
expected in Brazil next spring and higher output of Nigerian peanut, Philippine
coconut, and Malaysian palm oils.
? the failure of oil production in 1974 to keep pace with current consump-
tion and the need to rebuild stocks.
US Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Prices
J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A K1 J J A S 0 N D
1972 1973
Average monthly prices 1974
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World Edible Qilsl : Prt,duction and Exports
1972
1973
19742
Production
World
42.8
42.0
45.9
45.5
US
10.3
10.6
12.1
10.6
Foreign
32.5
31.4
33.8
34.9
Of,vhich soybean
6.6
7.3
9.0
8.0
US
5.3
5.8
7.1
5.7
Foreign
1.3
1.5
1.9
2.3
Exports
World
13.1
12.6
13.9
14.2
US
4.5
4.5
5.3
4.6
Foreign
8.6
8.1
8.6
9.6
Of which soybean
3.0
3.2
4.2
3.7
US
2.7
2.8
3.2
2.7
Foreign
0.3
0.4
1.0
1.0
1. Including the oil equivalent of oilseeds, animal fats, and marine oils. OR production is estimated
on the basis of average extraction rates and crushings. Exports include the oil equivalent of exported
oil-bearing materials. Data refer to calendar years and are computed for the most part using oil-bearing
materials produt:.d in the fall of the previous year and the spring of the year stated.
2. Preliminary.
3. Forecast.
Continuing strong demand and the expected dip in oilseed production could
reduce carryover stocks next fa!l nearly to the low point reached in 1973. The
achievement of the meager 350,000-ton rise in export supplies of edible oil, forecast by
USDA for 1974, depends on heavy drawdowns of exporters' stocks. If Brazil and the
USSR continue to restrict sales, their stocks would be protected, possibly at the
expense of farther price hikes. Even if other Countries loosen up on exports, the United
States will have to cut into stocks to meet demand.
European consumers of high-priced edible oil have shown some buyer resistance,
but overall demand has been buoyed by rising consumption in developing countries,
particularly in the Middle East. Should the world economic slowdown become more
pronounced, softening demand could reduce prices. Such a development is more likely,
however, to merely keep prices from going higher.
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CIPEC: MORE TALKS ON ACTION TO SUPPORT COPPER PRICES
The search by the four-member Intergovernmental Council of Copper
Exporting Countries (CIPEC) for a way to reverse the decline in world copper
prices is not likely to succeed.
Faced with falling copper export earnings, Chile, Peru, Zaire, and Zambia will
meet in Paris later this month to mull over various support schemes. Since last
April, copper prices have plummeted about 60% because of depressed economic
activity in industrial countries and sizable Japanese exports of refined copper. r-
An agreement by CIPEC to cut exports, together with a moratorium on new
Japanese export licenses (as announced by Tokyo last week), would temporarily
bolster prices. Nonetheless, growing copper stockpiles in CIPEC countries and
possibly Japan would eventually exert downward pressure on prices.
Additional factors argue against successful sustained action by CIPEC. The
member countries lack the financial resources to absorb a large loss in foreign
exchange earnings. Furthermore, CIPEC countries are concerned about maintaining
their share of Free World exports, already cut from 70% to 60'!0 over the past
seven years.
CANADA: FERTILIZER PLANS THREATENED
The ambitious expansion plans for Canadian output of nitrogen fertilizer will
have to be cut back because of competing demands for natural gas. Many of the
expansion projects involve US-owned facilities intended to provide important
additional supplies for the US market. Canadian officials want much of the gas
to be used in other petrochemical plants that would generate more employment
and value-added.
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Most of the growth in fertilizer capacity is planned for Alberta - the leading
producer of natural gas, which is used as feedstock to produce ammonia for
nitrogen-based fertilizer. The province has received more than 20 proposals for
new fertilizer plants in the last two years. Some industry observers estimate that
if all these facilities were built, Canadian capacity for ammonia production would
rise to 28,000 tons per day by 1980, eight times present capacity. At this level,
Canada would account for 45% of projected North American capacity, compared
with 8% today.
Alberta officials are concerned that the proliferation of fertilizer plants will
cut into gas supplies needed for other large petrochemical projects now under study.
The province attaches great importance to these projects, which would involve
investments by US and Canadian companies of more than $1 billion. Edmonton
has indicated that it considers six to eight new fertilizer plants as the optimum
number. This number would add 7,000-10,000 tons per day to ammonia production
capacity by 1980, equal to 6%-9% of projected worldwide growth. So far, Alberta
has approved construction of three plants with a combined capacity of 3,300 tons
per day.
Ottawa may move to curb the growth of the fertilizer industry if provincial
officials do not. It has ordered a crash study of the impact of the expansion plans
on natural gas supplies. The action reflects concern about Alberta's ability to supply
gas to eastern Canadian consumers as well as to all proposed petrochemical plants.
Production of natural gas is expected to rise slowly until about 1980, when
compietion of a Mackenzie Valley pipeline should make Arctic supplies available.
Federal officials hint that they might have to start restricting fertilizer exports
in the next few years to slow the growth of production capacity.
25X1
If oil prices remain at recent levels, the receipts of OPEC countries will decline
by almost $4 billion - or over 10% -- from the current quarter to the first quarter
of 1975. Receipts probably will drop by about $2 billion even if
? the price increase of 50 cents per barrel just announced by certain Persian
Gulf producers is widely adopted and
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? another S0-cent hike is instituted on 1 January to compensate for the
rise in the cost of imports from developed countries in the fourth quarter.
The decline in OPEC receipts will result from the us:ial lags in company payments
for oil and the completion in the fourth quarter of most retroactive payments
for oil shipped in the first half of 1 974.
OPEC Countries: Oil Export Revenues and Receipts
Million US $
Accrued
Earnings
Actual
Receipts
1974
1st qtr
26,185
12
071
2d qtr
27,228
,
22
028
3d qtr
l
25,595
,
29
697
4th gtr
1975
26,396
,
30,504
1st gtrl
25,792
26,851
Oil prices have increased only moderately since January. During the same
period, oil production has been cut because of the drop in demand induced by
high prices and the worldwide economic slowdown. As a result, OPEC government
earnings, on an accrual basis, have remained fairly stable since early 1974.
Meanwhile, the actual receipts of the producing countries have been rising
substantially from quarter to quarter. In the sec,-)nd half of 1974, OPEC receipts
will exceed accrued earnings by about $8 billion, mainly because of retroactive
payments for government-owned oil lifted earlier. These p;,;; m-nts were delayed
while new participation contracts were being negotiated in several countries.
The oil bills of importing countries reflect accrued earnings rather than actual
receipts of OPEC countries. Throughout 1974, the international companies have
been charging for oil on the basis of expected costs. The second-half bulge in
payments thus is being covered largely by transfers from escrow accounts set up
earlier in anticipation of retroactive obligations.
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Notes
Philippine Sugar Difficulties Exaggerated
The outlook for Philippine sugar exports to non-Communist countries seems
brighter than suggested by last week's speculation. Both the rumors of a sale of
400,000 to 500,000 tons to the USSR and the export embargo (imposed because
of typhoon damage) were overreactions to minor developments. Reports of a large
Soviet purchase, subsequently trimmed in market gossip to 200,000 tons, apparently
stemmed from the visit of a Philippine trade delegation to Moscow, but that team
was not authorized to sign any trade documents. T ae embargo is likely to be
removed soon because typhoon damage turned out tc, be slight.
Canada: Income Tax Indexing
Canadians will receive tax relief on 1974 income under an innovative scheme
that links income tax rates to the consumer price index. Canada is the only major
developed country to ease the impact of inflation on the rates paid under a
progressive income tax system. Approved by parliament in 1973, the scheme
provides for increases in personal exemptions and in tax brackets to reflect the
price change during the 12 months ending the previous September. The adjustment
for 1974 income amounts to 6.6% and is expected to cost Ottawa $500 million
in r%venues. A further adjustment of 10.!% already has been announced for 1975
income and will cut revenues by an additional $750 million.
Publication of Interest*
Communist Aid and Trade Activities in Less Developed Countries,
October 1974
(ER RP 74-24J
November 1974)
This issue of the monthl 25X1
y publication provides, a summary of significant
developments in Communist economic and military relatiunc with less developed
countries in October. Moscow's largest new undertaking is the extension of $300
million in additional credits for a steel mill in Pakistan, now under construction.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
A
A
l
WHOLESALE PRICES
verage
nnua
Constant Market Prices
Growth Rate Sinca
-
Average Annual
Industrial
Grnwili Rate Silica
Perrenr Changa
latest tram Previous 1 year Previous
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
Percent Change
Latest train Previous 1 Year 3 Willis
Month Month 1970 Earlier Farhat
United States
74 III
-0.7
3.2
-2.3
-2.9
United States
Sep 74
0.8 9
8 27.9 20
5
Japan
7411
0.6
5.7
-3.3
2.4
Japan
Sep 74
0.1
.
11.1
30.7
.
9.5
West Germany
74 II
- 0.7
3.1
1.1
- 2.9
West Germany
Sop 74
0.2
6.8
14.6
6.9
France
73 IV
1.7
-3.6
6.0
7.0
France
Sep 74
-1.0
11.8
27.9
7.1
United Kingdom
741
-3.5
1.9
-4.4
-13.3
United Kingdom
'p 74
1.5
11.5
25.7
19.9
Italy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7
Italy
Aug 74
0.5
16.1
45.9
23.2
Canada
7411
0
6.7 4.9
Canada
Jul 74
2.0
11.2
24.8
12.2
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
latest tram Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1910 Cattle, Earlier"
Per rentChang
Latest Lam Previous
Montt) Month
c
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sep 74
0.3
4.0
-1.0
-0.2
Uni
ted State
1
s Sep 74 1
6
6 12
1 13
7
Japan
Sep 74
0.2
5.2
-6.9
-13.5
Jap
an
Sep 74
.
1.6
.
11.7
.
23.8
.
19.1
West Germany
Aug 74
0
2.5
-3.8
-i.9
We
st Germa
ny
Oct 74
0.5
6.1
7.1
4.1
France
Aug 74
0
6.2
4.t
12.4
Fra
nce
Sep 74
1.1
8
3
14.7
13.3
United Kingdom
Aug 74
1.2
2.9
1.2
7.5
Uni
t^d Kingd
om
Sep 74
1.1
.
10.4
17.1
8.7
Italy
Sep 74
1.7
4.0
-1.6
-12.3
Ital
y
Sep 74
3.3
10.9
24.6
35.8
Canada
Aug 74
0.4
5.8
5.3
-3.6
Can
ada
Sep 74
0.6
6.7
10.9
9.7
RETAIL SALES'
Current Prices Average Annual
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Growth Rare Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest Tram Previous
1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Month Month
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sep 74 -1.2
9.7
8.6
17.8
Unit
ed State
s
Sep 74
0.1
5.8
5.8 2
2
Japan
Jun 7'
2.7
13.4
16.4
6.2
Jap
an
Jul 74
-2.3
16
7
13
0
.
0
15
West Germany
Jun 74
-1.5
7.7
2.0
1.5
Wes
t German
y
Aug 74
0.8
.
9.1
.
9.6
.
10
9
France
May 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3
Fran
ce
Jun 74
1.4
12.6
8.7
.
16.2
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jun 74
Apr 74
Aug 74
3.3
0.9
2.7
11.9
17.4
12.5
14.7
27.0
19.4
8.3
34.0
24.9
Unit
Italy
Can
ed Kingd
ada
om
Sep 74
Jan 74
SOP 74
-0.4
0.1
-0.7
8.5
20.6
11.8
2.4
20.5
6.6
5.1
19.6
-8.1
1Yell r 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Carl! -r Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Nov 6
9.00
7.ti0
11.83
10.13
Japan
Call money
Oct 23
12.50
8.75
13.50
13.00
West Germany
Interbank loans(3Months)
Nov
6
9.43
14.19
9.50
9.66
France
Call money
Oct
9
13.13
11.13
14.00
13.75
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 ma)
Nov
6
11.48
12.44
12.70
11.03
'Seasonally adjusted.
"
Canada
Finance paper
Nov
6
10.65
9.13
11.6:,
11.23
Avenge for latent 3 months compared
tiuro-Dollars
Three month deposits
Nov
6
10.00
9.89
IJ.19
11.64
with average for previous 3 months.
13 November 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150049-3
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150049-3
EXPORTS"
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United i;ingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE"
f.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $ 1974 1073
Sep 74 8,280 71,576 50,428
Sop 74 4,404 38,859 26,790
Sep 74 7,220 05,823 40,743
Sep 74 4,007 34,305 20,950
Sep 74 3,205 20,098 21,148
Sop 74 2,059 21,685 15,589
Sep 74 2,808 23,829 18,446
Million US S
Million US S 1974 1073
Sop 74 I 8,520 73,922 50,491
Sop 74
Sop 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sop 74
22,737
37,050
25,709
24.341
17,584
10,803
Latest Munlh Cumulative (Million US S)
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORT PRICES
5,354
4,221
4,174
3,078
2,799
Cunndativn
Million US S
47,773
37,397
35,643
27,415
23,389
Million US S 1974
Sep 74 I -233 -2,347
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
415
1,866
-214
-879
-418
9
-616
18,051
-3,092
-8,945
-5.729
441
BASIC BALANCE**
Current and Long?Term?Capiial Transactions
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
74 II
Sep 74
Sep 74
73 IV
74 I
74 I
74 II
1973
3
3,059
11,692
1,241
-3,193
-1,995
1,581
Percent
charge
41.9
50.0
35.0
27.3
20.2
39.1
29.2
Percent
Change
48.4
73.6
28.9
45,5
46.4
55.9
38.7
Chan e
2,284
-3,874
6,358
-4,333
-5,752
-3.735
-1,142
-2,740
211
503
-475
84
- 2,037
-445
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
-a u.t
-9,048
5,061
NA.
84
-2,037
-813
1973 Change
-2,164 1,210
-6,674 -2,374
0.772 -1.711
-2,472 NA.
-1,033 1.117
-872 -1.164
-6 -BOB
End of Billion US S Jun 1970
Sep 74 15.9 14.5
Oct 74 135 4.1
Oct 74 33.7 8.8
Sep 74 8.5 4.4
Oct 74 7.5 2.8
Sep 74 7.8 4.7
Oct 74 5.8 4.3
1 Year
Earlier
12.9
14.0
35.0
11.2
6.8
6.5
5.8
'Seasonally adjusted..
"Converted into US dollars at current market rates of exchange,
13Novembsr 1974
3 Months
Earlier
14.9
13.2
33.9
8.2
8.7
5.3
6.0
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PHICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Cluuq)a
latest hunt Previous
Merrill Merrill
Sop 74 I 0.7
Sep 74 -0.9
Aug 74 -0.0
Jun 74 2.5
Jul 74 1.7
Jul 74i 4.8
Jul 74 0.7
11170
120
15.0
14.8
14.7
13.5
14.0
14.3
Aver ago Annual
Draw) (loin Silica
I Year
Earlier
20.0
23.7
13.4
11.5
25.4
28.6
41.5
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
-3.9
-3.3
33.5
30.4
35.7
9.4
Average Annual
Growth Rule Since
I'orcenl Chang i -
Latest real ProviouS
Month ',until 19711
Sep 74 0.7 ?.8
Sep 74 -0.4 11.0
Aug 74 2.0 5.6
Jun 74 3.3 11.1
Jul 74 1.6 13.6
Jul 74 3.9 15.4
Jul 74 1.7 12.'
Percent Change
latest final Pievious
Month Month
Sep 74 -0.2 I
Sep 74
Aug 14
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of I I Nov 74
Japan(Yeh)
West Germany ( e utls)che
France (Franc) (Pod
United Kingdom stunerling)
Italy (Lier)
Canada (Dollar)
US S
Per Unit
0.0033
0.3921
0.2138
2.3380
0.0015
1.0110
-0.5
3.1
0
0.4
-2.4
-1.8
Dec 66
20.88
55.97
5.89
-16.22
-6.25
9.81
I Year
Earlier
29.9
39.1
22.8
28.5
33.3
42.8
38.3
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
23.0
24.8
42.5
29.6
43.4
13.5
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
19711
19.4
16.8
7.5
15.8
21.3
24.8
11.8
I Year
Farrier
54.3
75.6
35.3
61.5
57.1
68.5
32.5
3 Months
Earlier
22.0
4.3
23.0
37.0
17.9
7.3
39.7
18 Dec
1911
2.71
26.36
8.58
-10.27
-12.73
1.32
19 Mar
1973
-12.31
10.73
-2.99
-5.00
-15.20
1.33
4 Nov
1974
0.21
0.85
-0.09
0.04
0
-0.47
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES'
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-14.48
12.41
31.79
-16.48
-35.55
-28.97.
7.12
18 Dec
1971
-5.19
-1.10
14.75
-3.09
-21.28
-27,59
0.54
19 Mar
1973
1.41
-12.92
9.69
-5.55
-6.83
-20.83
2.18
4 Nov
1974
0.01
0.12
0.72
-0.41
-0.13
-0.36
-0.52
"'Weighting is based on tech listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150049-3