DUTCH REPORT THAT PAKSITAN IS WAVERING ON AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000102570001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 5, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR
Attached is the response to
Dr. Brzezinski's request for an
assessment of the Dutch report on
Pakistan.
Chief, Southwest Asia
Analytic Center
Date 5 November 198
5-75 101 USE PREVIOUS
EDITIONS
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5 November 1980
MEMORANDUM
DUTCH REPORT THAT PAKISTAN
IS WAVERING ON AFGHANISTAN
evidence he had any Soviet encouragement ~n this regar .
There is no evidence to support the contention in the
Dutch report that the Pakistanis are in the process of
switching their position on Afghanistan and that they have
worked out?a limited understanding to this end with the
Soviets. =
Pakistan has made an attempt over the last few weeks
to obtain an Islamic Conference draft resolution on Afghani-
stan that would receive wide support in the UN General
Assembly and has urged moderation of the implemention pro-
posals in the resolution with this objective in mind.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Agha Shahi, who has been at the
UN, also apparently harbored hopes that the Soviets might
respond favorably to a comparatively moderate resolution and
perhaps show a willingness to negotiate, but there is no
Publicly, the Soviets and Pakistanis show no evidence
of changing their positions toward each other. In the last
week, Zia has twice spoken out against Soviet occupation of
Afghanistan. At a public reception in Peshawar this week Zia
This memorandum has been prepared by the South-
west Asia Analytic Center, Near East South Asia Division,
Office of Political Analysis. Questions and comments are
welcome and should be addressed to Chief, Southwest Asia
Analytic Center 25X1
25X1
PA M 80-10480C
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spoke at. length about recent violations of Pakistani airspace
and said there was no question of a shift of policy on Afghani-
stan because it was based on "principles that could not be
compromised." And on 4 November Izvestia carried an article
attacking Pakistan for its continuing willingness to enter
direct negotiations with'Babrak's regime. Izvestia said such
a course ran counter to the national interests of the people
of Pakistan, was fraught with adverse consequences for that
country, politically, morally, and materially, and was aggravat-
ing relations not onlly with Afghanistan but also with other
neighboring states.
The Dutch report, however, does reflect the increasing
concern among Pakistani leaders--including President Zia--
that Pakistan is becoming isolated on Afghanistan as the
world pays less attention to the issue and as it becomes
clearer that it will not be possible to oust the Soviets.
There has been evidence for some time that several Pakistani
leaders, including Agha Shahi, have advocated keeping a
dialogue open with the Soviets in order to reduce pressure
from Moscow and we believe President Zia wbe willing to
pursue indications of Soviet flexibility.
At some point Pakistan may have serious discussions
with the Soviets on Afghanistan. So far, however, the
Soviets have shown no flexibility on Afghanistan, continuing
to insist on Pakistani recognition of the Babrak government and
on the end of aid to the insurgents, conditions which the
Pakistanis show no signs yet of compromising on.E
In short, current Pakistani policy appears to be one of
continuing support for the Afghan insur, but to remain
alert for signs of Soviet flexibility. gency
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[TEMPO 531b003 3101 o4Z SCS]
ACTIONS NONE INFOI NESA, ODPS-S, OPA/RO, RAD/RAF, SOA-29
SOAI-E ( ), WEN/NL, WES/SA, FILE, RF, ODPN-N, PPB/FESA, CR/E, EUR-39
FR, IAD/CAS-3, IAD/PE, NE-4, NIC/AG, NIO/NE, NIO/wE, 06CP-2. (21/W)
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ZNY CCCCC ZOC STATE ZZH
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DE RUFHNA 07639/01 3091537
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
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FM USMISSION USNATO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE MASHDC IMMEDIATE 2563
INFO RUFHKK/ALL NATO CAPITALS
RUMJPG/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0454
RUSBUD/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0246
RUOMRA/AMEMBASSY JIDDA 0206
RUSl3LK/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0091
RUEH+IO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 8459
RUSdAE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0213
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0797
RUEHDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2837
E90. 120655 ROS-i 11/04/00 (BENNETT, W.TAPLEY, JR.) OR-P
TAGS $ NATO, PEPR, AF, NL, PK
SUBJECTS (C) AFGHANISTAN$ NETHERLANDS REPORT ON SHIFT IN
. PAKISTANI POSITION
1. (CONFIDENTIAL-ENTIRE TEXT).
?
2. AT POLADS NOV.- 4 NETHERLANDS REP CIRCULATED REPORT
(TE4T PARA 4) FROM DUTCH EMBASSY IN ISLAMABAD SUGGESTING
THAT PAKISTAN WAS IN -THE PROCESS OF SNITCHING ITS POSITION
ON iFGHANISTAN? WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME FORM OF DIALOGUE
WITH THE KARMAL REGIME. WHICH WOULD FACILITATE BROADER
SUPPORT FOR A UN RESOLUTION. NETHERLANDS REPORT 1S
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CONCERNED, INTER ALIA, THAT PAKISTAN WOULD BE PREPARED TO
"SELL OUT" THE AFGHANI RESISTANCE ORGANIZATIONS AND TO
ACCEPT THE FAIT ACCOMPLI OF SOVIET OCCUPATION OF AFGHANIS-
TAN.
3. ACTION REOUESTEDS WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY READILY-
AVAILABLE WASHINGTON ASSESSMENT OF PAKISTAN'S CURRENT
STANCE--BEYOND THE QUESTION OF THE UN RESOLUTION--THAT
WE MIGHT SHARE WITH ALLIES HERE.
40 BEGIN TEXT OF NETHERLANDS REPORTS
RELATIONS BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN
1. IN THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY IN ISLAMABAD THE IMPRESSION
PREVAILS THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN IS PRESENTLY
ENGAGED IN AN OPERATION OF SWITCHING 175 POSITION ON
AFGHANISTAN. IT IS GENERALLY BELIEVED THAT THE BASIS FOR
A DEAL WAS ARRANGED DURING THE CONVERSATIONS OF THE
PAKISTANI MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, MR AGA SHAHI WITH
THE SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTER GROMYKO IN NEW YORK. IN
ESSENCE THE AGREEMENT WAS THAT THE SOVIETS WOULD RESPECT
THE INTEGRITY OF PAKISTAN (FOR THE TIME BEING AT LEAST?)
AND WOULD CEASE TO EXERCISE PRESSURE ON IT IN EXCHANGE FOR
ACCEPTANCE BY ISLAMABAD OF THE PRESENT AFGHAN REGIME
AND ITS WILLINGNESS TO INITIATE DISCUSSIONS ON THE WAYS
AND MEANS TO SETTLE THE BILATERAL PROBLEMS WITH AFGHANISTAN,
2. IN ITS EXTERNAL POLICY THE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT WOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE RESOLUTIONS OF THE ORGANIZA-
TION OF ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AS WELL AS TO THE RESOLUTION OF
THE SPECIAL SESSION OF THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL
ASSEMBLY, BUT THE RECENT CONSULTATIONS OF THE MINISTERS OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COUNTRIES
IN NE w YORK (RESULTING IN THE ADDITION OF GUINEA AND
TUNISIA TO THE MEDIATION COMMITTEE OF THREE) HAD RESULTED
IN A COMMON UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME KIND OF DIALOGUE -WITH
BABRAK KARMAL, CUM SUIS WITHOUT PRIOR CONDITIONS, HAD BE-
COME UNAVOIDABLE FOR PAKISTAN.
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0' .
CONFIDENTIAL
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