TRENDS IN PART TIME EMPLOYMENT

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CIA-RDP90-00530R000300610003-4
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K
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11
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December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
October 22, 2012
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3
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~ ~ l n ; ~~: /l.w , ~4~.._ -~ Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 r.~o Labor Table 1. Employment status of the population 18 years end over by sex, race, and Hispanic origin, quarterly averages, not seasonally adjusted E l To tal' Bla ck Hispani c origin' Wh ite mp oyment status II 1984 II 1985 II 1984 II 1985 II 1984 II 1985 II 1984 I 1985 Total Civilian nbninstitutionalpopulation 176,125 177,946 19.302 19,620 11,118 11,485 152,234 153 491 Civilian labor lorce ~ 113,599 t t 5,262 t 1,940 12.347 7,201 7,377 98,706 . 9g,7~ Participation rate .... 64.5 64.8 61.9 62.9 64.8 64.2 64.6 65.0 Employed .. .. 1105,179 106,958 10,020 10,486 6,443 6,622 92,434 93,574 Employment-population ratio 59.7 60.1 51.9 53.4 58.0 57.7 60.7 61.0 Unemployed 6,420 8,305 1,920. 1,861 758 755 6.272 6,192 Unemployment rate . 7.4 7.2 16.1 75.1 10.5 10.2 6.4 8.2 Median duration in weeks 8.4 6.6 8.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 8.t 6.4 Not in labor force .. 62,527 62.684 - 7,362 7,273 3.918 4.109 53,528 53.725 Discouraged workers . ... 1,225 1,108 379 315 (') 114 790 727 Men Civilian noninstitutional population . 83,480 84.345 8,632 8,770 5,449 5.632 72,688 73,282 Civilianlaborforce 63,939 64,527 6,703 6,208 4.410 4,536 56,246 56,821 Participation rate .. .. .... 76.6 76.5 70.7 70.8 80.9 80.5 77.4 77,3 Employed 59,257 60,019 5.071 5.260 3.948 4.087 52,727 53,208 Employment-population ratio ... 71.0 71.2 58.7 60.0 72.5 I 72.6 72.5 72.6 Unemployed 4,682 4,508 1.032 948 462 449 ~ 3.520 3,473 Unemployment rate .. 7.3 7.0 16.9 15.3 10.5 9.9 6.3 6.0 Median duration in weeks .... .. 10.5 8.3 10.2 8.5 8.6 8.3 10.5 7.9 Not in labor force 19,541 19,818 2,529 5,262 1,039 1,096 16,442 76,661 Discouraged workers 499 514 137 143 (') 50 34a 332 Women Civilian noninstitutional population 92,645 93.602 10,671 10,850 5,669 5,653 79,546 80,210 Civilianlaborforce .... 49,660 50,736 5.837 6,139 2,791 2,841 42,460 43,145 Participation rate ... 53.6 54.2 54.7 56.6 49.2 48.5 53.4 53.8 Employed 45,921 46,939 4,949 5226 2,495 2,535 39,707 40,366 Employment-population ratio 49.6 50.1 46.4 48.2 44.0 43.3 49.9 50.3 Unemployed 3,738 3,797 888 913 296 306 2,752 2,779 - Unemployment rate ... ... 7.5 7.5 75.2 14.9 70.6 10.8 6.5 6.4 Median duration in weeks .... ..... 6.2 5.2 6.7 5.1 4.9 4.6 5.8 5.0 Not in labor force .. .. .. 42.986 42,866 4,834 4,711 2,878 3,012 37,086 37,065 Discouraged workers 726 594 242 172 (') 65 446 395 'Detail for the above race and Hispanicorigin groups will not sum to totals because data for the "other races" group are not presented and Hispanics are included in both white and black population groups. ~ Changes in estimation procedure have resulted in revised 1984 estimates for persons of Hispanic origin since their earlier publication. See Employ- ment and Earnings, February 1985, pp. 7-1 t. ' Not available. Table 2. Employment status of the Hlspanic?origln population, 16 years and over, quarterly averages, not seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) Emplo ment status Mexican origin Puerto Rican origin Cuban origin Other Hispanic origin y II 1984 II 1985 11 1954 II 1985 II 1964 II 1985 II 1984 II 1985 Civilian noninstitutional population .... 6,636 6.656 1,602 1,671. 784 825 2,096 2,333 Civilianlaborforce.... 4,437 ,4,436 836 _ 870 533 550 1,395 1,521 Participation rate .. 66.9 66.6 52.2 52.1 68.0 66.7 66.6 65.2 Employed........ ~. .. ... .... 3.981 3,991 732 753 482', . 502 1,248 1,376 Employment-population ratio. 60.0 60.0 45.7 a5.1 61.5 - 60.8 59.5 59.0 Unemployed ..:.. ......... ...... 456 a45 704 117 50 47 148 746 Unemployment rate ..... 10.3 10.0 12.4 13.4 9.5 8.6 10.6 9.6 Not in labor force ~ ............. .. ... 2,200 2,220 766 801 251 275 701 813 black workers, however, these proportions were nearly reversed: Only about 17 percent had jobs in technical, sales, and administrative support occupations, while the largest proportion, nearly half, held service jobs. Tre ds ' t----? Voluntary part-time workers accounted for about 13.7 percent of all workers in 1984, down slightly from 14.1 percent in 1983. Between the early 1960s and the mid-1970s, the percentage Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~- Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~' ~y/ ~?' Labor Tabls 3. Employment status of the black and Hlspsnlaorlpln populstlon, quarterly atarapas (Numbers in thousands) Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Empbyment status 11 II I II III IV 1 II 1984 1965 1984 1964 1984 1984 1985 1985 Black Civilian noninstitutional population ........ .. ... 19,303 19.620 19,222 19.303 19,387 19.481 19,543 19,820 Civilian labor force ............... 11,940 '2,347 11,816 11,942 12,102 12,263 12,302 12,347 Panicipation rate .... ...... ....... 61.9 62.9 67.5 , 61_9 62.4 63.0 62.9 62.9 Employed ............ ... .......... 10.020 10,x86 9,8x2 10,035 10,187 .10,409 10.396 10,499 Employmen4populationrxtio .......... 51.9 53.4 51.2 52.0 52.5 53.4 53.2 53.5 Unemployed 1,920 1,861 1,973 1,907 1,915 1,854 1,906 1,848 Unemployment rate .......... 16.1 15.1 16.7 16.0 15.8 15.1 15.5 15.0 Not in labor force ..... ........... 7,362 7.273 7,406 7,361 7,285 7,218 7,241 7,273 Hlapenie orlpln' Civilian noninstitutionalpopulation ........... ... 11,118 11,485 11,026 11,118 11,209 11,301 11,394 11,465 Civilian labor force ....... ..... ......... 7,201 7.377 7,079 7,183 7,305 7,417 7,317 7,361 Participation rate ..... ............... 64.8 6x.2 64.2 64.6 65.2 65.6 64.2 64.1 Employed ........................ ... 6,443 6,622 6,299 6,405 6.532 6.636 6,574 6.584 Empbyment-population ratio ...... .. 58.0 57.7 57.1 57.6 58.3 58.7 57.7 57.3 Unemployed ..... 758 755 780 778 773 761 742 777 Unemployment rate ........ ... ... 10.5 10.2 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.1 10.5 Not in labor torte ..... .... ...... ..... 3,918 4,109 3.947 3.935 3,904 3.884 x.077 4,t 24 Voluntary part-time employment as a percent of total employment by race Percent 18.0 1972 197J 1974 1975 Source: Bureau of Lobor Stotiatica. of workers electing to work part time exhibited a clear upward trend. This leveled off at about 14.3. percent from 1975 through the early 1980's. Trends in voluntary part-time work for black and white workers have diverged significantly over the past decade. As the accompanying chart shows, since "1972 the percentage of black work- ers employed part time has declined, from about 12 percent to the current level of 9tfz percent. The trend for whites exhibits considerably more stability and only recently has begun to edge down. Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 J An Association for the Study of Alternative Futures - Publisher of THE FUTURIST: A Journal of forecasts, 7~%J Trends and Ideas About the Future ORVILLE FREEMAN formerly U.S. Secretary of Agriculture JOHN W. GARDNER formerly U.S. Secretary of Health, Education, and WeHare BARBARA HUBBARD President FUTURES NETWORK , JAMES L. KUNEN EUGENE AND AGNES MEYER FOUNDATION SOL M. LINOWITZ Senior Partner COUDERT BROTHERS ROBERT MCNAMARA formerly President WORLD BANK MICHAEL MICHAELIS President PARTNERS IN ENTERPRISE, INC. GLENN T. SEABORG Professor of Chemistry UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA formerly Chairman, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission IRVING S. SHAPIRO Partner SKADDEN, ARPS, SLATE, MEAGHER & FLOM formerly Chairman, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc. ROWAN A. WAKEFIELD Senior Editor THE AMERICAN FAMILY EDWARD CORNISH President and Editor FRANK SNOWDEN HOPKINS Vice President GRAHAM T. T. MOLITOR Vice President and Secretary KENNETH W. HUNTER Treasurer SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS Forecast ~fl: By the year 2000, the average car will be mostly plastic and will last an average of 22 years.' Forecast ~~2: The economy of Japan, envied worldwide today, is in for a period of turmoil and decline during the 1990 s. Subsequently, Japan will not regain its current overpowering presence in world trade in the foreseeable future. F o r e_c_a.s t_~f_3_: B y 1 9 9 5, m-o~s~t--a~d-u _1_-t s~w~ l~l~b a w~o-r-k n?g~a 3 2~~ ~-ou-r-w,e~e k. i3-u r-i n?g t h~e t i-m=e t h-e y--a-r-e~n?'gt~?w?o?r k n-g~m-a-n y~~ ~w~-~Jb-ep r_e_p~ ~_i ng~f`o r t-h a r-SnTMe x~t----c-a r-e a-r . _ W h-i 1-e--~ h?eT-a.d-u 1-t--~~ r~_r-ac-m-a`~ k`m a v_.}i a-~-a.a_r fi i n o ~ h n r t a~'r""`~h F+f"- ~_tii .ci.P_n.t e.r_h:i.n l m P a k~--~~:_ ~?? w i1=1~b_e~g=a-t-t=i n_g~l_o n ='r--"--~ Forecast ~: By the year 2000, 52~ of the world's people will reside in urban centers. That number may leap to 90~ by the end of the twenty-first century. Forecast ~~5: A worldwide economic collapse is extremely likely in the next few years. Those unprepared may stand naked before a crisis unseen in the U. S. since the Civil War. Forecast ~~6: NASA plans to have a moon base established by 2007. A self-supporting outpost made up of people from all nations, this settlement could make important contributions toward establishing world peace. These are some of the latest forecasts from members of the World Future Society and its magazine THE FUTURIST. In this letter, I will share other forecasts with you and tell you how you can receive--completely without risk-- a volume on high-potential careers of the future absolutely (over, please) 4916 St. Elmo Avenue ? Bethesda, MD 20814-5089 ? U.S.A. ? (301) 656-8274 Cable Address: WORLDFUTUR _ Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~' ~ ~~ FREE with an introductory membership. At the outset, let me say that futurists do not predict the future. And there's good reason for this. If we could predict the future it would mean that the future could not be changed. We could not consciously create it. And this is the whole purpose of studying the future: to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is what is desirable, and, if it's not, work to change it. You'll Get a Unique Persvective on Our Rapidly Changing World Our world changes so quickly it has become increasingly difficult to keep up with new developments--much less understand their implications to society. Through World Future Society publications and activities you'll understand what new technologies, new values, and social change will mean to you. Since 1966, when the World Future Society was founded, we've worked hard to share information on new developments, possibilities, forecasts, trends, and scenarios. This information helps individuals, governments, and businesses participate in creating a better future for themselves and the world as a whole. Twenty- five thousand people in 80 countries find membership essential. As a nonprofit organization, we've put all our effort into sharing this information with everyone--not just governments or corporations. The World Future Society is totally-independent, offers no official view of what the future will or should be like, embraces no creeds or ideology. ~ Only in this way can we give you the unbiased information you need about the most important subject there is: Your Future. Whether we are on the threshold of a Golden AQe or on the brink of a global cataclysm that will extin ug ish our civilization is, I believe, not only unknowable, but undecided. The decision will emeree through what we do in the years ahead, for each of us will create a ip ece of the common future of all mankind. We can do nothing to change the past, but we have enormous power to shape the future. Once we grasp that essential insight, we recognize our responsibility and capability for building, our dreams of tomorrow and avoiding our nightmares. Of course. we feel abysmally ignorant of how to proceed, but as we join together, forming networks of human concern about the future, we will find the strength and wisdom needed to create a better future world. This is some of thinking that went into forming the World Future Society 20 years ago. And now for more thought- provoking forecasts: Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~ U Forecast ~~7: Scientists have succeeded in synthesizing the human growth hormone, enabling parents to increase the height of their children. Wil t Chamberl ain, watch out.! Forecast ~~8: Mexico City, which already has 17 million people, is adding more at the rate of 2,000 each day. By the year 2000, the U.N. estimates, Mexico City will have 28 million people and be the largest city in the world. Forecast ~~9: Microcomputing technology could reduce car accidents to 10~ of current levels. The Swedish National Road Administration is currently experimenting with new technology in an effort to make seat belts obsolete. Forecast X10: By the 1990 s, animal and plant species may be disappearing at the rate of 10,000 per year, largely due to the destruction of tropical forests. Every hour one species will become extinct, some'- biologists 'believe. '~ "` -" As you can see, the future offers us many opportunities as wel l as dangers. If we can look ahead, and decide what kind of future is desirable, we-can make the right decisions .for tomorrow is built today! You'll Learn to Forecast Your Own Future The best person to forecast your future is you. Why? Because you can influence and change your future in ways-that outsiders cannot. By learning about trends, forecasts, and scenarios, you can do a lot to build a better future for yourself, your family, your business, and your investments. And when you accept our invitation to join the World Future Society today, we'll send you a valuable bonus book to help you and your family make the right choices today to create a better future for yourselves-=CAREERS TOMORROW: THE OUTLOOK FOR WORK IN A CHANGING WORLD. This information-packed volume, 160 fully illustrated pages, is yours absolutely free. Outstanding Benefits Available Only to Members Your membership entitles you to a fantastic array of exclusive benefits to help you learn about tomorrow and understand today. As a World Future Society member you will receive: THE FUTURIST: _A Journal of Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas About the Future. This lively, independent magazine will keep you informed and en~ig itened with the latest development s, scenarios, technologies, trends, recommendations, and more. You'll learn of new ways of doing things, radical proposals, and solutions--ideas to create a better tomorrow. THE FUTURIST is full of stimulating articles and features that ( over, please) Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~ ~ capture your imagination and fill you with ideas, visions, and opportunities. You .can position yourself and your business to tak e advantage of important trends that are occurring now and will continue in the coming months and years. Each issue is packed to the brim with departments and features: TOMORROW-IN-BRIEF -- provides a quick update of unique and remarkable developments you can't find anywhere else. In each issue you'll learn about stimulating new ideas and developments such as: * The Superfish -- how scientists are using genetics to breed a 100-pound trout. * An electro-mechanical womb -- now being developed by Corning Glass Works -- and its implications for, society. * The New Gold and Silver Prospectors -- who aren't ?U,dgging in the ground, .bu.t,-.runn-.n,g..a .com-puter-. sc?r-apyar,d in England and mining $10 million a year in gold, silver, and platinum from junk computer circuit boards. And in each issue you'll receive WORLD TRENDS AND FORECASTS. You'll explore .stimulating ideas, visions, new ways to live and work, and remarkable happenings now on the horizon such as: * The Junkyard in Space -- how communications .satellites face .increasing hazards from .burnt-out rocket shells,-old payloads, and abandoned malfunctioning satellites. * The New Achievers -- how corporations are working. on developing their people not just as workers but as individuals, encouraging them to grow personally in the workplace for increased job satisfaction and productivity. * W~ Computers .Worry Doctors -- how some M.D.s fear that compu-ter diagnosis may change the doctor's role from esteemed decision-maker to a paramedic technician and forever change the doctor/patient relationship. , ... If even one of these ideas sparks your imagination, .read on ... your membership and THE FUTURIST offer you so much more ... FUTUREVIEW -- a thoughtful essay by a distinguished thinker. Leading futurists identify important issues and place developments in a broader context. You'll get a fascinating overview to help you make sense of our changing world. You'll read items such as: * The Need for "Knowledge Processing" -- how computers are generating mountains of data, but making sense of it is becoming increasingly difficult. * A_ New Silver Age -- a remarkable comparison of Western history examined in relation to the stages of early Greco-Roman civilization and what this may portend for the future. Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 ~ ~ * New Challenges for the Information Age -- surveys project a tenfold growth both in personal computers and their processing capability. "Expert Systems" wil 1, allow us to have the knowledge of the most renowned heart surgeons, scientists, and even cooks, available to anyone, anywhere in the world. Book Reviews. Leading futurists give you expert evaluations of new works especially selected for their impact and originality. And. of course. feature articles you will find nowhere else. Each issue is packed with 8-10 feature articles by leading thinkers, scientists, researchers, economists, .politicians, and experts from virtually every field who know that the actions we take today create the worl d of tomorrow. A small sampfi'ng `of well=kri'own ?au~tho~r~s w-ho?se ideas have appeared in THE FUTURIST includes: Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, B.F. Skinner, Gary Hart, Margaret Mead, John Diebold, Buckminster Fuller, theologian Harvey Cox, sociologist Amitai Etzioni, Nobel Prize-winning chemist Glenn Seaborg, author Richard Bolles, Star Trek originator Gene Roddenberry, Hazel Henderson, Willis Harman, Congressman Newt Gingrich, Colorado Governor Richard Lamm, Herman Kahn, Bertrand de Jouvenel, science fiction writer Frederik Pohl, economist E.F. Schumacher, educator Harold Shane, public opinion expert Daniel Yankelovich, Gerard K. O'Neill, visionary Fritjof Capra, forecaster Marvin Cetron, and far too many more to mention. Through the pages of THE FUTURIST, you'll meet creative, dynamic individuals like these, whose thoughts and ideas are changing the way people think, live, work, and play. Weapons in Space: A "Star Wars" debate between Lt. General James A. Abrahamson and astronomer Carl Sagan. The Kondratieff Cycle and War: How long-wave economic cycles can predict more. than economic trends. Automate, Emigrate, or Evaporate: America's Choices in the Global Economy -- why the U. S. must regain a substantial lead in productivity to compete in the global economy. The Robot Revolution: The "robotization" of business is proceeding rapidly, driven by increased labor costs and the plummeting price of technology. , Telecommuters: ,The Stay-at-Home Work Force of the Future -- how many workers in the "information age" may earn their livings on their home computers. Window of Opportunity: How advances in communications, biotechnology, and space are creating hope for the future. (over, please) Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Emerging Careers: Occupations for Post-Industrial Society --The future holds in store a multitude of exciting new occupations, from treasure hunting to moon mining, says a careers- expert. Schools of the Future: Education Approaches the Twenty-First Century--Why schools must stay open longer, pay teachers better, and open their doors to adult workers in need of retraining. Skynet 2000: Raising Global Productivity Through Space Communications--By the year 2000 a new system of communicating via space could enable mankind to make great jumps of productivity even in isolated areas of the Third _World. But THE FUTURIST is only one benefit of your membership ... You can attend World Future Society conferences and seminars at special members' rates, such as FUTURE FOCUS: THE NEXT 15 YEARS that was held at the New York Penta Hotel in New York City, July 14-17, 1986. WFS conferences bring together leaders from many fields and many nations to share ideas and forecasts, to view exciting new technologies, and to establish networks of common concern. Often these conferences serve as forums -for world leaders to announce their plans. You can'get an exclusive advance view. For example, at our 1982 conference, Democrat Gary Hart spelled out many of his newest ideas soon to be articulated in his presidential campaign. And Republican Newt Gingrich outlined the thoughts that contributed to forming the "Conservative Opportunity Society." Speakers have included Arthur C. Clarke, Gerald R. Ford, Walter Mondal e, Marshal 1 McLuhan, Herman Kahn, Edward M. Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey, B.F. Skinner, Betty Frieda n, Buckminster Fuller, Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, Maurice Strong, Charles Schultze, and many others prominent in their respective field or country. From presidential candidates to radical poets, World Future Society conferences provide an open forum to leading thinkers and doers of every point of view. You'll meet and hear .these thought- leading individuals at what has been referred to as "the greatest intellectual show on earth." And you will receive advance notice of these happenings as well as special members-only rates. You' 11 also receive the following .... ~'A Free Subscription to NEWSLINE, the WFS Members Newsletter that will give you late-breaking news about individuals and events of the Society. The Opportunity to Join Local Chapters--Now in Over 100 Cities. As a member you'll be able to join groups of forward-looking' individuals in your area to share your common interests and learn more about futures-oriented issues at special workshops, meetings, Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/10/22 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300610003-4 conferences, and luncheons,many of which feature distinguished speakers. The Semi-Annual Resource Cataloe and Discounts on Over 30~ Books, Tapes, and-More. Your membership entitles you to receive the World Future Society's Resource Catalog containing the largest single collection of books on the future available anywhere. What's more, as a member, you'll receive a 10~ discount on everything in the catalog. You'll save on best-sellers like MEGATRENDS, but you'll also save on hard-to-find books like ISSUES MANAGEMENT. You'll enjoy browsing through this "bookstore of the future" in the comfort of your own home and save off- what you'd pay. in ordinary bookstores--if you could find the book. - And, as a special bonus, you'll also get two exclusive reports-- The Annual Outlook Report. Each year the World Future Society assembles forecasts from its members to form a general outlook of trends to look for in the coming years.. You will receive the latest issue in your introductory membership kit. , ... and THE ART 0_F FORECASTING -- a special primer on the scientific techniques used by futurists. Discussing terminology and showing the most valuable methods, this bonus report will give you a solid introduction to this important new field. Now here's the most important part. Your membership will give you the satisfaction of knowing that you make it possible for leading thinkers and doers from all over the world to participate in studying the future and helping to create a better tomorrow. The world faces enormous challenges. We need to work collectively to develop the wisdom and cons;ens-us