NATIONAL TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON HR PLANNING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 31
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 27, 1988
• Content Type: MISC

I l
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release
2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Clarion Hotel
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release
2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 + Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
National Trends with Possible Impacts on HR Planning
Analysis of Agency Work Force Data
Demographic shift in age distribution in working population
National Trend: in 1975 the average age in the work force was 28; by 1990 the
projected average age will be 40+
National Trend: from 1980 to 1990 analysts anticipate a 42% increase in workers
age 35 to 44
National HR Analysts hypothesize that these demographic changes will mean more
workers in the same age category competing for limited (pyramid structure)
opportunities with the majority of pressure occurring in the midlevel
management positions.
From OP data we should attempt to address the following:
(1) Do we have an increase in age of our working population? We should
consider age distributions by occupations, by career service and by grade,
as well as examine information on males and females separately.
Distributions should be obtained for 1987,1982, 1977, 1972.
(2) Do we have an increase in average time-in-grade? (see considerations in
"1" above).
(3) Is there an expanding or shrinking gap between the age of our
management incumbents and the age of our journeyman incumbents?
(see considerations in "1" above).
(4) Have we modified the shape of our pyramid structure over last 15 years?
Analyses number of jobs above journeyman for occupations and career
services compared to total jobs within occupation or career service.
From OMS data we should request an analysis of changes in age distribution of
our tested applicant population.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Demographic shift in gender/ethnic distributions in working population
National Trend: in 1980, 60% of all new jobs went to women. from 1975 to 1985
there was a 21% increase in female managers. by 2000, projections indicate
45% of all U.S. workforce will be female.
National Trend: from 1985 to 2000 it is projected that 58% of all new jobs will be
filled by minority workers, almost 30% of whom will be hispanic.
National HR Analysts hypothesize that these demographic changes will change
workforce demands on employers by bringing different values to the work
force. Female workers and female managers, in particular, are seen as having
work values (i.e., females place greater value on communications, feeling a
part of the organization, career development) that differ from their male
counterparts.
From OP data we should attempt to address the following:
(1) Do we have an increase in the number of female employees? Analyze sex
distributions by occupation, by career service and by grade. Distributions
should be used from 1987, 1982, 1977 and 1972.
(2) Do we have an increase in female managers? Analyze distributions on
promotions above journeyman by occupation and by career service for
years 1987, 1982, 1977 and 1972.
(3) Have we had an increase in minority workers and in minority managers?
(see analyses done for "1" and "2" above and repeat for minority
employees).
(4) Another way of cutting the same data would be to analyze EOD
distributions by occupation and career service examining each for sex and
race characteristics. We should also consider who filled new jobs at any
level by occupation and career service. Again, distributions should be
obtained for 1987, 1982, 1977, 1972.
From OMS data we should request an analysis of changes in gender and race
distribution of our tested applicant population. In addition we should request an
analysis of values -- do our female and minority employees bring different values to the
work place. Some Agency historical information should exist from a study by Lyerly
(OMS) in 1978/79 on minority applicant/employee values (TTS and Work Attitude
measures).
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RRDP90-00530R000300590001-9
Demographic shift in retirement trends
National Trend: in 1980 there was a 20% jump in workers staying in the work
force after traditional retirement age.
National HR Analysts hypothesize that these demographic changes will mean that
the baby boomers will compete for limited opportunities to rise within the
organization not just with each other but with their fathers.
From OP data we should attempt to address the following:
(1) Do we have changing patterns in retirement separations? We should
analyze by occupations, by career service and by grade, as well as
examine information on males and females separately. Distributions should
be obtained for 1987, 1982, 1977, 1972.
(2) Do we have an increase in employees eligible for retirement who remain
on duty (see analysis considerations in "1" above)?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Shift in values within the working population from traditional to "new"
National Trend: reduction in work for pay, organizational loyalty, dependence on
the organization for security and stability, deferred gratification.
National Trend: increase in employee demand for fulfillment, growth, career
development, autonomy, participation and empowerment. "new" value
individuals place greater emphasis on family and self and devalue the role of
work and place greater emphasis on today rather than tomorrow (tend to
spend today's money today).
National HR Analysts hypothesize that these "new" value employees will change jobs
more often, make full use of leave and in fact buy or otherwise try to acquire
additional time (demand for leisure time), seek training in a higher proportion
than their fathers did, save less for the future, challenge the system, reject
hierarchy, demand flexibility (of approach, of time-on-the-job) and work
autonomy.
From OP data we should attempt to address the following:
(1) Do we have an increase in the number of career changes being made by
employees? We should analyze numbers of changes in career service for
employees overtime (this won't be an accurate look, but close).
Distributions should be obtained for 1987, 1977, 1972.
(2) Do we have an increase in early-outs or voluntary separations? Again,
look should be overtime (see "1" above).
(3)
Do we have an increase in part-time workert unexplained by Agency
growth. This analysis should look at males and females separately and by
over time (see "1" above).
(4) Do we have an increase in requests for LWOP (non-maternity)? Over time
(see "'I")?
(5) Do we have a shift in annual or sick leave uses? Analysis should consider
males versus females and grade of employees. Distributions should be
produced over time (see "1").
(6) Do we have an increase in our "problem employee" business? Include PEB
cases and analyze over time.
(7) Do we have. an increase in services offered to employees (health, fitness,
counseling of any type)?
From OMS data we should request (1) analysis of changes in work attitudes or
temperament measures -- probably want to use only the successful EOD population for
the analysis as applicant data is contaminated by major policy decisions; and (2)
changes in demand for medical services -- counseling (physical or mental health),
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
medivacs for personality or mental health reasons. The very fact that OMS has
instituted employee assistance in financial areas is an indication of something. They
should be able to document why they took this step. Their employee assistance
business has grown considerably and they should be able to document why.
From EEO, IG and OGC we should request information on possible increases or
decreases in challenges to the system. Are there more and if so in what areas?
From OTE we should request information on possible increased demands for
training -- internal and external and particularly those relating to growth issues (to
make me a better person -- i.e., stress management).
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Recent, massive changes in technology are pushing us into the "third
industrial revolution."
National Trend: there are more and different kinds of specialists -- not just
computer changes and the communications/information management areas
that result but also from science, engineering, etc.
National Trend: existing experts must work constantly to keep up with changes.
National Trend: knowledge workers are constantly confronted with data overload
and will be forced (by virtue of tech changes) to change systems every five
years or so (witness the computer revolutions in last six months with release
of OS/2).
National HR Analysts hypothesize that (1) growth in experts/specialists brings
increase in different value sets, career requirements, technical languages
each of which place pressure on the organization; (2) data overload is
affecting even traditional jobs like administration, analysis, and clerical
support and communicating via computers is changing the definition of
working groups, contacts, requirements; (3) changes require new jobs that
manage data and data links in addition to traditional secretarial information
management jobs; (4) change is so rapid that the definition of expert is
changing -- the expert is often the newest person (newest skill) rather than
the person who has worked for years, education (skill update) demands are
growing as employees must either be updated or employers must establish a
revolving door approach to tech employees.
From OP data we should attempt to address the following:
(1)
Do we have an increase in the number of technical jobs (new or changes
to) (computer, science, etc.) unexplained by Agency growth? All data base
maintenance or management jobs should be considered. Distributions
should be obtained for 1987, 1982, 1977, 1972.
(2) Do we have an increase in requirement for technical jobs in areas where
the need never appeared before (computer programmers in OP, OMS)?
(3) Do we have an increase in requests for upgrade of jobs (particularly
technical jobs) based on the complexity of the task rather than workload?
That is, are technical jobs becoming more technical -- require greater
knowledge base? OC may be a good example, have we upgrade jobs
because communicators or techs there need to know ever expanding
systems?
From OIT data we should request analysis of increase in computer (mainframe)
access that is unexplained by bona fide Agency growth; an analysis of computer time
used -- overall do employees now use more time than they once did; an analysis of
growth in the PC both in acquiring PCs (hardware) and in acquiring flexibility of use
(software); an analysis of software flexibility demand for the mainframe -- can we
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90 -00530R000300590001-9
document an information overload problem with increased use of spread sheets, data
base management tools, information management tools (graphics, charts, etc.).
;From OTE data we should request analysis of training demands specifically related
to technical advances (word processing, graphics, PC use, etc.) independent of Agency
growth; analysis of training requests for outside training that relate to technology
growth (all sciences, computers, etc.) again controlled for Agency growth; analysis of
courses offered relating specifically to data base management.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
There are a variety of other trends that will undoubtedly have an impact on the way we
do business in the next 10 years but it is unclear to me how you would check for them.
Even if you did check you would have little data. This does not indicate a lack of
impact. The growing problem with literacy is already a problem for industry. As a
significant portion of the population becomes less literate we will have a smaller
applicant pool by definition. This is basically a problem at the wage grade jobs, but we
still have such jobs and probably will continue to. Will it be more or less important
organizationally if we can not find drivers, couriers, etc who are literate.
Organizations are changing structure and while we could check to see if we have, it may
have little value. Most corporate changes in this area are to compensate for changing
international competition. We may over, time adopt a flatter management, become more
customer oriented, or turn to project teams and matrix like operations but it will not be
for economic reasons.
A final word of warning. While I firmly believe that there is a shift in values in
employees proving it will be VERY difficult. You can not test current employees across
age ranges and get a realistic answer as people change values as they age (I certainly
have). Unless you can get good data over time, don't try to look at it. A good analyst
will just laugh at you.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-00530R000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18 :
CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9 / v
STAT
" pe-y~o 6 lom , Ot-
STAT
Dafe
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18
CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9 '~-
FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE STATISTICS
FROM CENTRAL PERSONNEL DATA FILE
Supplement to the May 1987 Report on the Federal Civilian
Workforce -- Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow
Lorraine. D. Eyde
January 1988
Office of Personnel Management
Office of Examination Development
Examining-Policy Analysis Division
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
OVERVIEW OF REPORT ON FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE STATISTICS
This report is designed as a supplement to the May 1987
report on the Federal Civilian Workforce--Yesterday, Today, and
Tomorrow.
The data in this report are based on Central Personnel
Data File statistics from full-time permanent employees, unless
otherwise noted. Comparisons are made between March 1976 and
March 1986 except when comparable statistics are only available
for Parch 1981 and March 1986 data. Postal workers are not
included. The statistics are generally reported separately for
the white-collar and blue-collar workforce.
The white-collar workforce is increasing in size,
whereas the blue-collar workforce is shrinking.
There are exceptions to these trends.
o The number of GSE (General Schedule and Equivalent)
1-4 workers has declined (and the decline is even
greater when clerical workers are removed).
o In the blue-collar workforce, there is an increase
in the number of Apprentice and shop Trainees.
-- There is an increase in the percentage of both the
blue- and white-collar workforces that is temporary
and part-time.
o For the blue-collar workforce, the percentage
increases are in temporary, but full-time workers.
o For the white-collar workforce, the increases are
more likely to be for permanent, but part-time
workers.
-- The median age of white- and blue-collar workers, at all
levels has largely declined.
o For example, the median age for GSE supervisors
-- The length of creditable service for the white-collar work-
force has remained fairly stable, whereas it has largely
declined for the blue-collar workforce.
Note. The data totals reported here may appear to differ from
those reported in the Director's Fact Book (October 15, 1987),
because those tables sometimes combine blue- and white-collar
workers, often include postal workers, and do not always differ-
entiate between full-time and part-time or intermittent workers.
- 29.
P
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
-- The educational level of the white-collar workforce has
increased. This increase is even greater when clerical
workers are removed.
-- Though the overall number of clerical workers declined,
there were increases for subgroups such as secretaries and
clerk/typists.
-- Among the nine white-collar occupational groups showing growth,
the Business and Industry group showed the greatest growth.
o The Computer Specialist job series also shows a very
high rate of growth.
Subgroup Trends
-- The total percentage of women increased substantially for
all occupational groups, with the greatest increase for
the Business and Industry occupational group.
o There were smaller increases in the total percentage of
women for the blue-collar workforce in general. However,
there was a substantial increase in the number of women
among Apprentice and Shop Trainees.
-- For the white-collar workforce, th~ total percentage of
minority group workers has increased.
o The increases for Hispanics and other minorities were
less than that for Black workers.
For the blue-collar workforce there was a decline in the
total percentage of Blacks, but an increase in the percentage
of Hispanics.
-- There was little change in the total percentage of GSE
handicapped workers.
o There was a decline in the total percentage of handicapped
workers for almost all of the white-collar occupational
growth groups.
o There was also a decline in the total percentage of
blue-collar workers who were handicapped.
-- There was a slight increase in the number of nonsupervisory.,
workers per supervisor in the white-collar workforce.
o On the other hand, for the blue-collar workforce, the number
of nonsupervisory workers per supervisor has decreased.
(For the blue-collar workforce however, the term "super-
visor" encompasses various levels of supervision.)
T
29,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE STATISTICS FROM
CENTRAL PERSONNEL DATA FILE:
These data from the Central Personnel Data File cover: (a)
Executive Branch agencies except U.S. Postal Service, Central
Intelligence Agency, ationa Security Agency, Tenne
Valley Authority, White House Office, The._ Board of Governors of
the Federate Reserve Board, and the Defense Intelligence Agency,
(b) The Legislative Branch's General Accounting Office, Govern
ment Printing Office, and U.S. Tax Court, and (c) The Judicial
Branch's Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. It excludes
nonappropriated fund employees in Defense activities, Commis-
sioned Corps employees, and foreign nationals employed outside
the U.S. or its territories.
General Schedule and Equivalent (GSE) pay plans include GS, GM,
GH, GW, LG, CZ and applicable Foreign Service and Veterans
Administration pay plans. Blue-collar employment statistics
are based on data from the following subcategories: WG, WS, WL,
WD, WT, WN and the Printing and Lithographic occupational group.
The Printing and Lithographic subcategories include WP and WI
for 1976 and XD, XL, XN, XP and XS for 1986.
Work schedule and tenure "other" categories include records
with unspecified tenure and/or work schedule plus records with
intermittent work schedule regardless of tenure.
The data reported are not necessarily based 'on mutually exclusive
categories. Futhermore, unspecified answer's were omitted when
computing percentages. Totals may not equal,100 percent due to
rounding.
Comparisons are between March 1976 and March 1986 unless otherwise
Noted.
29.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
THE WHITE-COLLAR FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE,
MARCH 1976 (THEN) AND MARCH 1986 (NOW)
o
Professional, Administrative, Technical, Clerical
and
Other Categories
(PATCO)'
--
--
--
--
--
Professional:
Administrative2:
Technical2:
Clerical2:
Other:
Now
Now
Now
Now
Now
333,980, increased
433,694, increased
314,385, increased
345,563, decreased
38,545, increased
17%
14%
1%
4%
6%
o
General
Schedule and
Equivalent (GSE) Grade
Levels
--
GSE
1-4:
Now
204,762, decreased
24%
--
GSE
5-8:
Now
452,395, increased
7%
--
GSE
9-12:
Now
566,762, increased
20%
--
GSE
13-15:
Now
224,483, increased
16%
--
Total GSE 1-15:
Now
1,448,416, increased
7%
o General Schedule and Equivalent Without Clerical
Workers
-- GSE 1-4. less clerical: Now 35,930, decreased 35%
-- GSE 5-15 less clerical: Now 1,068,116, increased 20%
o Nonsupervisors Per Supervisor (GSE).
-- Supervisors: Now 191,937, increased 4%
-- Nonsupervisors: Now 1,253,931, increased 8%
+ non-supervisors per supervisor, now 6.5,
past 6.3
+ decrease in median age for nonsupervisors
(1976, 40 years; 1986, 39) and supervisors
(1976, 47 years; 1986, 46)
1PATCO classif}cation contains only General Schedule and
Equivalent pay plans.
2Based on comparison of 1981 and 1986 data.
29.
G .
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 : Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
o Professional, Administrative, Technical, Clerical
and Other Categories (PATCO)
+ Changes for total PATCO workforce2 include
decrease in total percentage holding no
degree (1981, 62% of total PATCO work-
force; 1986, 58% of total PATCO work-
force)
increase in total percentage holding
Bachelor's degree as their highest degree
(1981, 24% of total PATCO workforce;
1986, 26% of total PATCO workforce)
+ For each PATCO category, the total % without
degrees went down,
++ Professional group (1976, 14%; 1986, 10%)
++ Technical group (1981, 86%; 1986, 82%)
++ Higher degrees now held by Professional
group (Master's, LL.B., etc.)
+
Bachelors
degree or higher degree.now held, by
++
88%
of
Professional group,
++
46%
of
Administrative group
++
46%
of
PATCO workforce without Clerical
(C)
workforce
++
37%
of
PATCO workforce
++
11%
of
Technical group
++
6%
of
Clerical group
+ Associate Degree, highest degree now held
++ 6% of Technical
++ 4% of Administrative or Clerical group
or Total PATCO workforce
?+ 2% of Professional group
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
o General Schedule and Equivalent
-- Median age by grade level
+ age increased 3 years for GSE 1-4
(1976, 31; 1986, 34)
+ age decreased 2 years for
++ GSE 5-8 (1976, 40; 1986, 38)
++ GSE 9-12 (1976, 43; 1986, 41)
age decreased 1 year for GSE 13-15
(1976, 46; 1986, 45)
-- Median Length of Creditable Service (includes
Military and Voluntary service, e.g., Peace
Corps)
+ Length of service was stable for three
of four levels from 1976 to 1986
++ GSE 1-4, Now 4 years
++ GSE 5-8, Now 10 years
++ GSE 13-15, Now 18 years
++ For GSE 9-12, there was a decline in
the length of service (1976,
1986, 13 years)
Work Schedule and Tenure3
GSE 1-15
Permanent Full-time total percentage down
3% points (1976, 94% of total GSE 1-15;
1986, 91% of total GSE 1-15)
1-15 (1976, 4%; 1986, 5%)
Permanent Part-time up 1% point of GSE 1-15
(1976, 1%; 1986, 2%)
++ Temporary Full-time, up 1% point of GSE
3Includes work schedule and tenure categories, i.e., permanent or
temporary, full=time or part-time, intermittent or unspecified
tenure records.
- 29.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
+ By GSE levels
Greatest decline in Permanent Full-time
employment for GSE 1-4 (1976, 82%; 1986,
72%) -
00 Increases for Temporary Part-time
(1976, 3%; 1986, 7%) and Temporary
Full-time (1976, 12%; 1986, 15%)
++ No changes for GSE 13-15 (now 98% Perma-
nent Full-time and 1%, Temporary Full-
time)
++ Non-minority group employees have declined
in total percentage by 2% points (1981, 78%
of total; 1986, 76%)
Black employees have increased 1% point
(1981, 15%; 1986, 16%)
Slight increases (under 1%) for Hispanics
(1981, 3.7%; 1986, 4.4%) and for Other
minorities (1981, 3.6%; 1986, 4.0%)
occurred.
The total percentage of Black employees has
increased 2% points for all GSE groups except
GSE
13-15.
000
GSE
1-4:
1981,
25%
of
total
group;
1986,
27%
000
GSE
5-8:
1981,
20%
of
total
group;
1986,
22%
000
GSE 9-12:1981,
9%
of
total
group;
1986,
11%
r
29
o
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
++ The total percentage of Hispanic employees
have increased 1% point for three GSE groups
By GSE level
++ There was no change for GSE 1-4. Now 78%
are women.
000 GSE 1-4: 198:, 5% of total group;
1986, 6%
000 GSE 5-8: 1981, 4% of total group;
1986, 5%
000 GSE 9-12: 1981, 3% of total group;
1986, 4%
The total percentage of Other minority group
members increased slightly for GSE 1-15
(1.981, 3.6%; 1986, 4.0%)
The total percentage of women increased by
5% points (1976, 42%; 1986, 47%)
The greatest change in total percentage for
women was a 13% point increase for GSE 9-12
(1976, 20%; 1986, 33%),
Increase in total percentage points was 8%
for GSE 5-8 (1976, 60%; 1986, 68%) and 7%
point increase for GSE 13-1.5 (1976, 5%;
1986, 12%)
,+ By GSE level
++ :The total percentage of. handicapped workers
is now highest for GSE 1-4 (1981, 7%; 1986,
9%)
++ The total percentage of handicapped workers
declined 2% for both GSE 9-12 (1981, 8%;
1986, 6%) and GSE 13-15 (1981, 7%; 1986,
5%)
There was little change for the total per-
centage (now 7%) of handicapped workers from
1981 to 1986.
29.
'v
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
o Selected Clerical Subgroups, Permanent Full-time General
Schedule and Equivalent
-- Secretaries and Clerk Typists (0318 + 0322)
+ SIZE
++ Now 135,470, increased 14% since 1976
+ DEMOGRAPHICS
++ Median age: Now 37, up 4 years
++ Minority Group Status: Total percentage of
Black employees increased 4% points (1981,
18%; 1986, 22%)
++ Gender: No changes. Now total percentage
of women 97%
-- Clerks includes Data Transcriber (0356), mail and
File (0305), Personnel Clerk and Assistant (0203),
Military Personnel Clerk (0204) and Supply Clerk
and Technician (2005)
++ Now 84,924, increased 7%
++ Median age: Now 37, down 31years
++ Minority Group Status: Total percentage in-
crease for Blacks 1% (1981, 27%; 1986, 28%)
and other minorities (1981, 3%; 1986, 4%)
++ Gender: Total percentage of women increased
(1976, 68%; 1986, 71%)
++ Handicapped Status: Total percentage of
handicapped increased (1981, 9%; 1986, 10%)
++ Ratio of Professionals4 to Secretaries/Clerk
Typists (318 + 322) has increased from 2.27
(1976) to 2.34 (1986)
4Professionals in PATCO classification.
.o.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
o Changes in Selected White-Collar Growth Occupations
and Job Series
-- Nine occupational groups5 and one job series
+
SIZE
++
Computer Specialist
(0334),
Now, 38,857,
increased
57%
Business and
Industry
(11XX,
Now 92,814,
increased
37%
Medical, Hospital, Dental +
(06XX), Now 132,265, increas
Legal and Kindred (09XX),
Now 68,340, increased 21%.
Investigation (18XX),
Now 55,089, increased 20%
Biological Sciences (04XX),
Now 43,219, increased 19%
Social Sciences, Psychology
Now 49,901, increased 11%
Accounting and Budget (05XX)
Now 126,106, increased 8%
Engineering and Architecture
Now 151,755, increased 8%
Physical Science (13XX),
Now 39,626, increased j%
4 years (1976, 35 years; 1986, 39 years)
Public Health
ed 22%
ooo For 5 of the 10 groups the median age has
declined from 1 to 5 years. The 5-year
decline was for the Business and Industry
occupation (1976, 47 years; 1986, 42 years).
coo There was no change for the Physical Sciences
Now 42 years.
00o For the Legal field, the median age increased
and
for Computer Specialists, the median age rose
3 years (1976, 38 years; 1986, 41 years)
there was a one year increase for the Investi-
gation field (1976, 39 years; 1986, 40 years)
and for the Social Sciences (1976, 39; 196, 40).
50ccupational groups, noted by two digits followed by two XX'S,
are sets of occupations. Occupational groups may include pro-
fessionals, technicians, and clerks. In this paper, the Computer
Specialist series, is counted as a group, even though it is not
an occupational group.
- 29..
P
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
++ Minority Group Status
coo For five groups there was an increase in the
total percentage of Blacks ranging from 1%
to 3% points. The 3% increase in total
percentage was for both Blacks in the Busi-
ness and Industry occupation (1981, 11%;
1986, 14%) and for Blacks in the Legal field
(1981, 20%; 1986, 23%).
coo For the Social Sciences, Psychology and Wel-
fare occupation, the total percentage of
Black representation declined 2% points
(1981, 15%; 1986, 13%).
coo For two occupations the total percentage for
Hispanics increased by 1% point (Biological
Sciences: 1981, 2%; 1986, 3%) (Accounting
and Budget: 1981, 3%; 1986, 4%). For the
Investigation field, the total percentage
for Hispanics increased by 2% points (1981,
6%; 1986, 8%).
coo For two occupations the total percentage
of Other minorities increased (Engineering
and Architecture: 1981, 4.6%; 1986, 5.8%)
(Accounting and Budget: 1981, 3%; 1986, 4%)
i
coo The total percentage of women increased for
all 10 groups. The greatest total increase
was 20% points for the Business and Industry
occupation (1976, 29%; 1986,'49%). The
lowest total percentage increase was for
Engineering and Architecture (1976, 1%; 1986,
6%).
coo The total percentage of handicapped workers
for 9 of the 10 groups declined. The decline
was close to 1% for each group. There was
little change for the Social Sciences,
Psychology and Welfare, for which 8% of the
employees are now handicapped.
29.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP9O-0053OR000300590001-9
CHANGES IN SELECTED DECLINING LOW GRADED BLUE-AND-WHITE
COLLAR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS6 AND ONE JOB SERIES
o Supply (20XX):
Now 55,796, decreased 5%
o General Service and Support (35XX):
Now 20,395, decreased 33%.
o Laundry, Dry Cleaning + Pressing (73xx):
Now 2,226, decreased 49%
o Food Service Workers (7408):
Now 10,325, decreased 27%
All four occupational groups showed a de-
cline in median age, ranging from 2
years in Food Service Work (47 in 1976;
45 in 1986) to 5 years for Laundry
workers (49 in 1976; 44 in 1986)
o Minority Group Workforce Composition
Blacks increased in the Supply occupation
(16.7% in 1981; 18.6% in 1986) and decreased
in three occupations (Laundry: 51% in
1981, 44% in 1986; General Service: 54%.
in 1 9 8 1 , 5 1 % in 1986; Food Service: 52%
in 1976, 50% in 1986) ,
Hispanics showed an increase of 1% for
two occupations (Supply: 5% in 1981,
6% in 1986; Food Service: 6% in 198 1 ; 7% in
1986)
o Gender Composition of Workforce
Women increased in their representation
in three occupations (Supply: 43% of
total in 1976, 55% in 1986; General
Service: 21% in 1976, 22% in 1986; Food
Service Workers: 54% in 1976, 57% in
1986)
6Except for the Supply occupational groups, which include GSE
pay plan employees at relatively low grades (median grade
6 in 1985), blue-collar occupational groups or job series
are covered.
29.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP9O-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
Declining Groups
-- Women decreased their representation in one
occupation (Laundry: 65% in 1976, down to
43% in 1986)
o Handicapped Status
The total percentage of handicapped workers
increased in two occupations (Laundry: 16.5%
in 1981, 17.8% in 1986; and General Service:
14% in 1981, 15% in 1986)
+ The total percentage of handicapped work-
ers decreased in two occupations (Supply:
10% in 1981, 9% in 1986; Food Service:
13% in 1981, 12% in 1986)
29,.
P
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
BLUE-COLLAR WORKFORCE - 1976 (THEN) and 1986 (NOW)
SIZE OF WORKFORCE BY SUBCATEGORY, INCLUDING SPECIAL PLANS3
o Total Blue-collar:
Now 402,440, decreased 10%
o Wage Grade (WG):
Now 331,801, decreased 10%
o Wage Supervisors (WS)7
Now 37,873, decreased 7%
o Wage Leaders (WL):
Now 12,269, decreased 11%
o Non-supervisory Production Facilitating (WD):
Now 6,516, increased 4%
o Apprentice and Shop Trainee (WT):
Now 6,586, increased 31%
o Wacre Mariner (WM)8
Now 4,581, decreased 3%
o Printing and Lithographic (P&L):
Now 2,187, decreased 54%
o Supervisory Production Facilitating (WN):
Now 627, increased 14%
Ratio of Nonsupervisors (WG Subcategory) to Wage Supervisors
(WS Subcategory)
o Number of nonsupervisors per supervisor7 declined
from 8.3 to 7.6
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS FOR BLUE-COLLAR WORKFORCE, -1976-1986
-- For 7 of the 8 subcategories, the median age de-
clined from 1 to 6 years
+ Greatest age decline for non-supervisory Wage
Grade workers (46 in 1976; 40 in 1986)
+ Age increased for Apprentice and Shop Trainees
(25 in 1976; 29 in 1986)
-- The median length of creditable service (including
military and volunteer service) declined for 6 of
8 subcategories, decreased from 1 year to 5 years.
Greatest decline for Non-supervisory Produc-
tion Facilitating
7Includes supervisors from different levels of supervision.
8Excluded from Federal Wage System. They are subject to
personnel ceilings.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
(23 in 1976; 19 in 1986) and for Supervisory
Production Facilitating subcategory (28 in
1976; 23 in 1986)
-- Increases ranged from 1 to 2 years for
Apprentice and Shop trainee (3 in 1976; 4 in
1986) and Printing & Lithographic work (16
in 1976; 18 in 1986)
+ a decline in total percentage of permanent
full-time workers (1976, 93% of blue-collar
workforce; 1986, 89% of blue-collar workforce)
+ an increase in total percentage of permanent
part-time workers
(1976,
1% of total blue-
collar workforce;
collar workforce)
1986,
2% of total blue-
+ an increase in temporary full-time employment
(1976, 5% of blue-collar workforce; 1986, 8%
of blue-collar workforce)
i
-- Total blue-collar workforce showed
+ a decline in total percentage of Black work-
force (1981, 20% of blue-collar workforce;
1986, 18% of blue-collar workforce)
+ an increase in total percentage of Hispanic
workforce (1981, 6% of blue-collar workforce;
1986, 7% of blue-collar workforce)
-- Three subcategories showed increases in the total
percentages of Black employees and two subcate-
gories showed a decline.
+ Increases in total percentage for Blacks
appeared in
++ Apprentice and' Shop Trainee (11.5% in 1981;
13.3% in 1986)
++ Nonsupervisory Production Facilitating (6%
in 1981; 7% in 1986)
++ Supervisory Production Facilitating (4% in
1981; 7% in 1986)
++ Decreases for total percentage of Blacks
occurred for non-supervisory Wage Grade (21%
in 1981; 19% in 1986) and for Wage Leaders
(21% in 198 1 ; 18% in 1986)
29.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
-- Increases for total percentage of Hispanics
(up 0.5% to 2%) for all subcategories except
Supervisory Production Facilitating, Wage
Mariner, Printing and Lithographic work.
Total blue-collar workforce showed an in-
crease in the total percentage of women
(1976, 7.2% of total blue-collar workforce;
1986, 8.6% of total blue-collar workforce)
The total percentage of women showed a 13%
increase for the Apprentice and Shop Trainee
plan (3% in 1976; 16% in 1986).
-- All other subcategories, with the exception
of Supervisory Production Facilitating,
showed 1% to 2% increase in the total percen-
tage of women.
The total percentage of blue-collar workers
who were handicapped decreased (1981, 10% of
total blue-collar workforce; 1986, 9% of
total blue-collar workforce)
The total percentage of handicapped workers
declined in 5 subcategories ranging from 3%
among Wage Leaders (12% in 1981; 9% in 1986)
to 1% for non-supervisory Wage Grade workers
(10% in 1981; 9% in 1986) and for Wage Mari-
ners (2% in 1981; 1% in 1986)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
THE FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE, (BLUE-AND WHITE-COLLAR)
MARCH 1976 AND MARCH 1986 (NOW)
o Changing Priorities: Defense vs. Non-defense Executive
Branch Agencies
+ 1974, 931,000
+ 1980, 847,000
+ 1985, 941,000
++ 1974-1980, decreased 9%
++ 1980-1985, increased 11%
++ 1974-1985, increased 1%
-- Non-defense Executive Branch Agencies:
+ 1974, 873,000
+ 1980, 922,000
+ 1985, 879,000
++ 1974-1980, increased 6%
++ 1980-1985, decreased 5%
++ 1974-1985, increased less than 1%
-- Average age declined for Defense agencies (1974,
43; 1985, 42)
-- Average age increased for Nondefense agencies
(1974, 40; 1985, 41)
tary and Voluntary service, e.g., Peace Corps)
-- Average declined for Defense agencies (1974, 15;
1985, 14) and increased for Non-defense agencies
(1974, 12; 1985, 13).
9Full-time permanent workers given and rounded off in thousands.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
V ' 0 ??
XII. ADDRESSING THE FUIURE
a. Anticipated workforce changes in the coming 5-10 years:
Looking ahead at the totality of factors which impacts its personnel
system, CIA forsees:
(1) A?_furtherx-decline =ins the, number of secretarial: and clerical
positions which now 7 is about This number s
decline of from over st ten years.
(2) A greater percentage - of- the--workforce will. be_ involved in
major collection. systems and--the-processing o`fM`theTdata- thus
(3) Assuming that CIA missions are not changed substantially
except for personnel engaged in counterintelligence and
verification of arms control agreements, the wer-XfOrde invol ied? in-
clandestine collection, intelligence,-analysis an& administ-r-ative-
support will remain at about the=same-ievel>$
specialists, mathematicians, graphics personnel, etc.
b. Cause of workforce changes: Technology is a major driving
force which has been and will continue to change the composition of
CIA' s workforce. As adY!ctzectir
16 og"bas made possible the
collection of new and"varied forms of sensor data by large technical
systems and the processing and exploitation of such data feasible, more
engineering personnel and personnel in su1 art of-engine-ems-baste been
needed. The skill areas of many engineers has also changed. Many of
these now might be envisaged as work team systems integrators with
subordinate members of the work team consisting of other engineer
The impact of technology on white collar employees especially
through word processing and data processing, has reduced the need for
secretarial-clerical personnel. This trend is seen as likely to
continue.
which derives from the threat from foreign intelligence services has
rapidly grown in the past several years. This includes the area of
technology transfer. The counterintelligence effort will continue to
Changes in CIA's missions are another driving factor in changing
its workforce. As indicated in the DCI's statement of 23 July 1987 to
the Senate Intelligence Committee, CIA now.provides foreign-intelligence
support to more elements of the Government than previously, including
the Departments of Treasury, Energy and Commerce; NASA; the Arms Control
Negotiating Teams; the Special Trade Representatives; and the Joint
Economic Committee of Congress. These changes show how new missions may
occur in a relatively short period. The continuing CIA mission change
grow.
SEC
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9
c. Anticipated impact of changes in American workforce
demographics on CIA's workforce: Two trends in the general U.S.
population are taking place which will be significantly on CIA's
workforce. First the pool of persons entering the U.S. workforce after
completing their secondary education will commence to diminish
substantially in the early 1990s, as the so-called "baby boom" cohorts
move into their middle and late twenties. This reduces the-total-number
of persons, especially with scarce educational.. skills,- who.,.are-seeking
employment. Given a continuation of current economic conditions, this,
in turn, will engender competition between the private sector and the
public sector, including CIA, to employ the "best and the brightest."
This is a general trend which applies to the U.S. Government as a
whole.
The second trend is more specific to CIA. The numbers of and
percentages of physical science and engineering graduates who are
foreign citizens or who otherwise present problems for CIA employment
growing rapidly. Amostf 6Q}percent ~afx.g.radaates
schools are - now- foreign, cit
d. Long range workforce plan: As expressed by the CIA Director of
Personnel on 1 March, CIA does=:not havea.long;r~jf~repan,~asR
such. CIA takes the position that its best approach to meeting changing
personnel needs is to have a flexible and modern personnel system which
can adapt qu' k to changing missions and workforce characteristics
2
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300590001-9