ROMANIA: GOOD WINTER GRAIN HARVEST, SPRING GRAIN PROSPECTS REDUCED

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000500620001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 7, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 8, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000500620001-5
DATE-~ ~D ^0 7 -
OC NO A ~- 201-5
IR 3
P$PD I
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
based on unclassified Landsat imagery data
8 September 1987
Chief, East European Division
Office of European Analysis
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
Grain Prospects Reduced
Romania: Good Winter Grain Harvest, Spring
1. The attached memorandum is in response to your request
for an assessment of 1987 crop conditions in Romania. It is
2. This assessment was produced by
the Agricultural Assessments Branch,
Agricultural Assessments Branch,
Strategic Resources Division, Office of Global Issues. Comments
and questions are welcome and may be addressed to the Chief,
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Attachment:
Romania: Good Winter Grain Harvest,
Spring Grain Prospects Reduced
GI M 87-20155
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000500620001-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90T00114R000500620001-5
SUBJECT: Romania: Good Winter Grain Harvest, Spring
Grain Prospects Reduced
OGI/SRD/AAB~
Distribution:
1 - Addressee
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 - SA DDCI
EURA
EURA
(4 September 1987) - 25X1
EURA
I EURA
1 - Executive Director
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - NIO/EUR
1 - NIO/ECON
1 - CPAS/ISS
5 - CPAS/IMC/CB (1 copy
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - C/OGI/SRD
3 - OGI/EXS/PG
5 - OGI/SRD/AAB
sourced)
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Central intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
8 September 1987
Romania: Good Winter Grain Harvest,
Spring Grain Prospects Reduced I 25X1
SUMMARY
We estimate that Romania's 1987 grain crop will reach near-
average levels. Although a decline from the 1986 record, the
1987 output will be larger than the mediocre harvests of 1983-
85. Winter grain conditions were generally favorable, as the
crop recovered from a dry fall and had enough soil moisture from
spring rains to achieve above-average yields. Dry conditions set
in, however, to dim prospects for the spring grain crop, and
yields are likely to be average.
This memorandum was prepared by
the Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic
Resources Division, Office of Global Issues. Comments and
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questions may be directed to Chief, Agricultural 25X1
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division, 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000500620001-5
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Romania: Good Winter Grain Harvest,
Spring Grain Prospects Reduced 25X1
Introduction
Commentary on grain production in the Romanian media has
usually been incomplete and inaccurate, especially concerning
harvest results. In past years Romania often announced a record
harvest at the end of the season even though the figures were
inconsistent with earlier, mid-season reports of unfavorable crop
conditions. Press reports this spring and summer were generally
upbeat about the-condition of winter graina:._they emphasized that
soil moisture over most of the country was good, better than in
most years, and indicated that the winter grain harvest began on
schedule and was nearly complete by early August. The growing
season was not problem free, however--the eastern region
reportedly had been dry since last fall and winter grains there
needed irrigation. Moreover, growing conditions for the spring
grain crop reportedly became less favorable as of mid-August:
dry weather, only partially relieved by periodic rainfall, made
irrigation efforts necessary.
This memorandum assesses Romanian 1987 grain crop conditions
in order to verify and complete information given in the Romanian
press and to help judge the reliability of official harvest
figures when they are announce Our assessment is based on USAF
weather data, Landsat imagery,
Grain Crop Assessment
Winter grains comprise about 40 percent of Romania's total
grain production and are planted in September and October for
harvest in July of the following year. Spring grains, mostly
corn, account for 60 percent of total production and are planted
in April for harvest the following October. Romania also plants
some corn as a second crop after winter grains are harvested.
However, this corn is usually planted too late to be harvested as
grain and is cut for fodder in most years.
Winter Grains
Our analysis of Landsat imagery and US Air Force weather
data indicates a good winter grain crop but not a record one.
Some episodes of unfavorable weather during the growing season
reduced yields from optimum levels:
o US Air Force weather data indicated that a dry fall
caused winter wheat and barley to get off to a weak
start. Precipitation from August through December of
1986 was below normal with rainfall in November (right
after planting) reaching only 10 percent of normal.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90T00114R000500620001-5
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o Weather data and Landsat vigor analysis showed two areas
where crops were stressed from lack of moisture this
spring (see Figure 1). Much of the northeast remained
dry since last summer and a portion of the south became
dry in June. Landsat vigor analysis during flowering
(early to mid-June) showed-..that crops-in these-areas
were only fair (see Table 1).
Table 1
Vigor Analysis
State of Crop
Good
Fair
Poor
75 - 100
45 - 74
0 - 44
(This scheme has been validated on crops in other parts of the
world, but is applicable to all regions. It is based on vigor
analysis, stand density, soil moisture and degree of cumulative
plant stress.)
While these problems have reduced yields, overall conditions
have been favorable:
o Analysis of weather data indicated that near normal
precipitation during the winter and spring brought soil
moisture to adequate levels across most of Romania.
Generally cool temperatures through flowering benefited
winter grains.
o Landsat vigor analysis during flowering showed good crops
in most areas of Romania, indicating above-average yield
prospects for winter grains.
-.-Spring Grains
Our analysis indicates that growing conditions for spring
grains were less favorable than for winter grains and average
yields are likely:
o Landsat vigor analysis during flowering in July showed
only fair to good conditions, but the healthiest crops
were seen in the major agricultural area in the south
(see Figure 2). After flowering, however, Landsat
coverage in late July and early August indicated that
crop vigor in some areas of the south had deteriorated to
Probable Yield
(Percent of Historical Maximum)
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fair. Other raninns of the country had maintained a fair
crop vigor.
o Weather data showed that April and May rainfall was
followed by dry conditions from June through mid-
August. July rainfall over---the whole country was only 60
percent of normal and was accompanied by hot
temperatures. The southern region, however, was
fortunate to receive timely rainfall in early July during
the flowering period.
Outlook
We believe that fluctuating growing conditions--generally
favorable for winter grains and turning unfavorable for spring
grains--will hold Romania's 1987 grain production to near-average
levels. Although a decline from last year's record harvest, the
1987 crop will be an improvement over the mediocre harvests of
1983-85. Weather in the coming weeks, however, will determine
the final results. Specifically:
o Ideal conditions--sufficient rainfall and warm
temperatures well into the autumn--would aid the harvest
of spring grains and would allow more of the second crop
of corn to be harvested as grain. An unusually good
second crop of corn helped Romania achieve a record grain
harvest in 1986, according to the US Agricultural
Counselor.
o On the other hand, further deterioration in the weather
could result in below-average yields for spring grains.
Hot, dry weather, an early onset of winter, heavy
downpours during the harvest, or a combination of these
conditions could dim production prospects.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90T00114R000500620001-5
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POMANIAti WINTER GRAIN CROP VIGOR9 JUNE 1987
FIGURE 1
HUNGARY
L.ANDSAT VIGOR ANALYSIS
GOOD CROPS
M FAIR CROPS
1--1 MOUNTAINOUS REGION - LESSER
~I AGRICULTURAL IMPORTANCE
RUMANIA PRESS REPORTED DRY CONDITIONS
WITHIN THIS REGION - 16 JUNE 1967.
s
GREECE
BULGARIA
TURKEY
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? ROMANIA-. SPRING GRAIN CROP VIGOR, JULY 1987
FIGURE 2
YUGOSLAVIA
K
LANOSAT VIGOR ANALYSIS
GOOD CROPS
FAIR CROPS
MOUNTAINOUS REGION - LESSER
AGRICULTURAL IMPORTANCE
BULGARIA
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000500620001-5