SOME PRACTICAL CONCLUSIONS FROM THE THEORY OF THERMOBARIC SEICHES

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• Document Release Date: September 27, 2011
• Sequence Number: 554
• Publication Date: January 29, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY REPORT
INFORMATION FROM
FOREIGN DOCUMENTS OR RADIO BROADCASTS CD NO.
CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL
DATE OF
INFORMATION 1950
Izveet a Akedemii Nauk SSR, Seri a Geograficheskaya i Geofizi-
r.,heekaLa, Vol XI VV, No 5, pp 0-
SOME PRACTICAL CONCLUSIONS FROM THE
THEORY OF 013~AkUC_SEICHES
V. G. Semenov
Submitted 15 March 1950
from Cent Forecasting Inst
general and for long-range weather forecasts (given a short interval in ad-
vance) in. particular forces researcAiers in this field. to seek neve_' and more
reli.ahie forecasting methods. The progress that has been made in long-range
'weather forecasts is due mainly to the works of Soviet scientists. A number
of major 'works on this problem has been published recently, but as yet there
is no organic connection between the various methods. Each method attempts
in its own way to solve the common task, namely, a reliable weather forecast,
and none can use the results of others.
In this paper, we attempt for the first time to apply some principles
of the synoptic method to Academician V. V. Shuleykin's theory of thermo-
baric seiches.
We consider it useful to take the natural synoptic period as a.unit of
time in the study of seiches. Shuleykin himself has repeatedly alluded to a
relation between seiche periods and the natural synoptic periods found by
Mul'tanovskiy. For example, in one work V. V. Shuleykin ,Izv. AN SSSR, Ser.
Geoa~raf. i Geofiz., No 1-2, pp 1.25, 1942) wrote: "It is quite remarkable
that Mul'tcnovskiy himeel.f observed that rhythmic weather changes or'natural
'rhythms' ?*ere characterized by figures of the same order as those obtained
theoretically for thermobaric seiches". Shuleykin also noted that "the
theoretically calculated seiche period agrees well with that actually observed;
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SUBJECT Scientific - Geophysics, meteorology,
long-range forecasting DATE DIST. ' Jan 1951
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PUBLISHED Moscow/Leningrad
DATE
PUBLISHED Sep 1950
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this period may change either because of air temperature changes or shifting
of nodal lines." These quotes make it apparent that the seiche period is not
a constant, and strict periodicity in the development of atmospheric processes
is not actually observed in nature. Attempts to differentiate atmospheric
processes according to some fixed time interval have not produced satisfactory
results.
Many researchers have been forced to resort to schematization in the study
of atmospheric processes for long-range forecasting purposes in order to sep-
arate the important factors from the second-rate and fortuitous. But, in doing
so, they were invariably confronted with the problem of the time intervals to
be used for averaging so that two essentially different processes would not be
united or one process divided into several. This applies fully to the study of
temperature, since the latter is connected closely with atmospheric circulation.
Greater difficulties arose in attempting to find regularities in tempera-
ture variations than in the study of synoptic processes, since temperature is
very changeable and depends on many factors which meteorology is not yet in a
position to consider quantitatively. Therefore, averaging of daily tempera-
ture values for larger time intervals was more necessary for finding even gen-
eral regularities in temperature changes than for the study of macroprocesses.
We pointed out above that averaging for any fixed interval cannot be con-
sidered correct, the more so in that inconstancy of the seiche period follows
s 1 ds were from theory. No metho..n'., for f~~ndtng ~.. seiche periods described in
works on the theory of thermobaric seiches and only average values are given.
Attempts at the Central Forecasting Institute to find modal or dominant seiche
periods with the help of harmonic analysis did not produce satisfactory results.
It was found that the seiche period was quite variable, even for comparatively
short time intervals.
We feel that these difficulties can be overcome by using the natural synop-
tic period as a time unit. "The natural synoptic period is a time interval in
which the main thermobaric fields are maintained in the middle troposphere, pro-
viding a definite direction of displacement of surface pressure formations and
conservation of the geographical distribution of the sign of the pressure field
throughout the natural synoptic region" (S. T. Pagava, Meteorology and Hydrology,
No 6, p 30, 1948). The use of the natural synoptic period as a unit of time was
dictated by the following two considerations:
First, the boundaries of natural synoptic periods and consequently their
duration are established by nature itself; in other words, the natural synoptic
period continues as long as a type of process which is stable in space and time
develops in the atmosphere. Since temperature is linked quite closely with at-
mospheric circulation, the field of positive and negative temperature anomalies
is maintained within approximately the same geographical regions during the
natural synoptic period in most cases. A very marked redistribution of centers
of positive and negative temperature anomalies is observed in most cases with a
change of the natural synoptic period.
The second advantage of using the natural synoptic period as a time unit is
the quasi constancy of its duration. During the natural synoptic season, most
periods have the same duration; some may vary by 2-3 days from the average, but
the duration of two contiguous periods usually does not differ by more than 1-2
days from the average.
F` r FEV i DIAL
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Studies of natural synoptic periods have shown that their duration is
not constant, but fluctuates around a certain mean value. However, the
average value for the duration is not a constant either, but varies from
season to season and from year to year. Most natural synoptic periods
(92.5%) lasts from 5 to 7 days. Periods of 8 days are much less frequent
(7.1%), while periods less than 5 or greater than 8 days are considered
rare exceptions.
It is interesting to note that in approximately 45% of the cases the
duration of contiguous periods differs by one day, in 17% by 2 days, and in
38% of the cases it is equal. These figures show that strict periodicity in
the development of atmospheric processes is not actually observed in nature.
Thus, by averaging temperature values for natural synoptic periods we
can (1) avoid insignificant and fortuitous details and clearly isolate the
important factors; (2) sufficient study of the duration of natural synoptic
periods will permit us to predict their significance in advance, i.e., to de-
termine the period of the future fluctuation.
In this paper, we have used the data of winter months because up to the
present they have been given less attention than other seasons in seiche stud-
ies. Furthermore, the winter months are characterized by very sharply de-
fined temperature fluctuations. The winter season is, however, the least
favorable for the emergence of thermobaric seiches, for the following reasons:
First, in winter the amounts of heat obtained by the pole and equator show the
greatest disparity, which naturally leads to the most intense zonal circula-
tion, determined by the temperature difference of the equator and pole, and
it is considerably more difficult for self-excited oscillations to arise in
strong than in weak currents. Secondly, radiation and other weather-forming
factors can have a very strong effect on distribution of surface temperature
in winter. We might note, however, that these seeming difficulties might only
accentuate the practical importance of the conclusions obtained in this work.
Synoptic maps and climatic handbooks were used as source material. From
this data, maps were drawn up of daily anomalies of mean diurnal air tempera-
tures for the winter months (December, January, February) for seven consecutive
years (1942 - 1948). The selection of years was determined mainly by the mate-
rial available.
The daily temperature anomalies were averaged for the natural synoptic
periods. A total of 104 maps were drawn up of the mean temperature anomalies
for the natural synoptic periods. Of the total number of periods considered)
counterclockwise rotation of the sources of temperature anomalies, i.e., conso-
nant with seiche theory, was observed in 42 parts.
The following condition was fulfilled in the selection of the 42 pe.irs
of natural synoptic periods: rotation of the centers of temperature anoma
lies had to be counterclockwise and the angle could not exceed 1800. Only 97
periods were used in the selection instead of 104, because the last periods in
each year could not be used.
Figure 1 shows the distribution of points where the nodal diameters of con-
tiguous periods showing seiche rotation intersect. It is easily seen that most
of these points are located either directly along the shore line or quite close
to it. The points removed from the shore line were obtained as a result of in-
tersection of the nodal diameters where the seiche process was either at its
highest point or had already finished. Only one such point (in the bend of the
Ob' River) was obtained at the beginning of the seiche process.
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Thus, the data of Figure 1 agrees well with the theory of thernobaric
seiches.
We cite an example which shows clearly the seiche nature of temperature
change, after first pointing out one fact. The network of stations which we
used was quite sparse. This prevented us from finding accurate values for
temperature anomalies, and therefore we will be forced to drop the quantita-
tive side of the problem for the remainder of this discussion.
Thus, let us consider the development of atmospheric processes and the
distribution of the temperature anomalies connected with them from 20 Decem-
ber 1942 through 17 January 1943. Three natural synoptic periods, namely,
29 December - 4 January, 5 January - 10 January, and 11 January were included
in this time interval. Technical reasons prevented inclusions of synoptic
maps for the above periods; therefore, we will describe in a general way the
development of atmospheric processes and the distribution of temperature anom-
alies connected with them.
The natural synoptic period from 29 December to 4 January was character-
ized by the presence of a slow-moving anticyclone southwest of the British
Isles. During this entire period, the anticyclone was continuously connected
with the polar region of high pressure. This process caused a negative anomaly
over the eastern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, whose source center was located
northwest of Iceland. Of course, this could be determined only by the value of
temperature anomalies over Iceland, England, and the Azores. Nevertheless, this
data definitely indicated that a negative temperature anomaly region was ob-
served over the Atlantic Ocean during this period, whose central part was located
in the northwest part of the ocean.
Active cyclonic activity prevailed over Western Europe and the Kara Sea
ujhich, in turn, agreed well with the presence of a positive temperature anomaly
over almost the entire European continent with a center over the Northern Urals.
to Figure 2, we give a map of temperature anomalies for the period under consid-
eration, where, among other things, we can see that the nodal diameter follows
along the shore line quite closely.
In the natural synoptic period 5 January - 10 January, the anticyclone
which had previously existed southwest of the British Isles was destroyed and
a process of northwest passive action was observed, i.e., a high pressure ridge
was maintained stably over Scandinavia and the'northwest regions of the'European
USSR. This process is quite logically related to the presence of the negative
temperature anomaly region, whose center can be seen over the Baltic Sea. Cyclone
activity over the Barents Sea, in which warm air masses were drawn from the south,
gave rise to a source of a positive temperature anomaly over the Barents Sea. A
high formed over the lower course of the Ob' River, as a result of which the pos-
itive t.:.mperature anomaly over the Northern Urals decreased considerably (Figure 3)
Finally, in the period from 11 - 17 January, an independent anticyclone
formed from the polar high-pressure ridge. This anticyclone subsequently shifted
to the south and southeast regions of the European USSR. A persistent high-pres-
ure ridge was observed over the east Barents Sea and the Kara Sea, and, in con-
unction with it, a major source of a negative temperature anomaly was formed.
Intense cyclonic activity was observed over the Atlantic Ocean. In good corres-
pondence with this process, a positive anomaly region was located on the south-
west shores of Europe (Figure 4).
This then is how atmospheric processes developed faring the time interval
considered. Comparison of the temperature anomaly maps for the consecutive nat-
ural synoptic periods shows that the sources of temperature anomalies continu-
ously rotated counterclockwise. In addition, we again emphasize that the nodal
diameter's configuration was very close to that of the shore line when the self-
excited oscillation process started to develop. We should also note that the
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angle of rotation of nodal diameters was either quite close to 900 or ex-
ceeded this value. A similar condition was observed in one of my previous
works (V. G. Semenov, Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No 3, pp 54-60, 1949).
The last note is also important because a similar picture is observed in
many periods, a fact which may be of value in direct forecasting.
We propose that the distribution of temperature anomalies observed
in the figures during the periods under consideration may be confirmation
that a definite type of process different from processes of contiguous pe-
riods actually develops during the natural synoptic period. However, this
does not mean that change of directivity of atmospheric processes must al-
ways be accompanied by variations in the distribution of temperature anom-
alies, since temperature is only one of the elements of the "weather" con-
cept and other weather-forming factors may change with a change in directiv-
ity of processes while the temperature remains the same.
From the standpoint of the theory of thermobaric seiches, conservation
of a temperature anomaly from one period to another indicates that it (the
natural synoptic period) is only one of the harmonics of self-excited oscil-
lations of a larger period of scale which have arisen in the atmosphere.
Of the total number of natural synoptic periods considered, clockwise
rotation of temperature anomaly sources was observed in only two pairs (i.e.,
when the angle of rotation did not exceed 1800). In the remaining natural
synoptic periods (other than the 42 mentioned), no clear picture of the rota-
tion of the temperature anomaly sources was observed. In these periods,
either very broad sources of the temperature anomaly covering the entire ter-
ritory under consideration were observed, or the temperature anomaly sources
remained in the same geographical regions for several periods in a row.
Analysis of the characteristics of these processes is beyond the scope
of this paper, but we would like to point out a good example of such proc-
esses, namely, the periods of the synoptic season "winter" of 1943-44, when
a positive temperature anomaly was observed during the entire season over the
entire European USSR. The winter of 1946-47 was characterized by a negative
temperature anomaly. The temperature regime and conditions of formation of
these two seasons were presented in detail in Borisov's work (Ye. I. Borisov,
Trudy Tsentral'nogo Instituta Prognozov, No 11, pp 135-162, 1949). The fore-
casting characteristics of such seasons were also given in the latter work.
Finally, we point. out as an example January 1949, when a very high positive
temperature anomaly persisted over all European USSR and most of Asiatic USSR.
In conclusion, we make some generalizations on the facts considered above
and briefly formulate the main points.
As we pointed out, counterclockwise rotation of temperature anomaly
sources was observed in 42 pairs for the given series of years. During the
emergence of the self-excited oscillation process in these periods, the nodal
diameter usually passed along the shore line or close to it.
In six natural synoptic periods (not counting the periods in which a
temperature anomaly of one sign was observed over the entire European USSR),
the nodal diameter also passed close to the shore line, but further rotation
of temperature anomaly sources was not observed. This number of periods was
12.5% (of 42 + 6). Consequently, if in some natural synoptic period, the nodal
diameter passes along the shore line or close to it, then it is highly probable
that the sources of the temperature anomaly will rotate counterclockwise '-.n the
following period. In most cases, the angle through which these sources rotate
varies from 90 to 1800. In seasons when a temperature anomaly of one sign is
observed over the entire European USSR, seiche,rotation of the temperature anom-
aly sources is not generally observed. Therefore, if such a season begins, one
should not expect seiche rotation of the sources.
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We note one more fact which was revealed in the analysis of the avail-
able material, namely, that temperature varies but little in the region of
the Azores. The temperature anomaly here as a rule is not greater than
1-2?.
The lack of any regular data on the Atlantic Ocean prevented us from
determining the region of maximum variability of temperature, i.e., determin-
ing the positions of the anomaly sources, without which it is difficult to say
anything about the intensity of the anomaly sources.
Finally, we would like to emphasize the great need for using aerological
data in the study of thermobaric seiches. In this work we were forced to use
surface data, while, according to the theory, we should use the mean tempera-
ture of the monsoon layer. In our opinion, the use of surface data could not
help telling negatively upon the results. This applies particularly to the
winter season, when the surface temperature depends very strongly on a great
many factors, as a result of which "chance" distortions are introduced in the
temperature distribution.
There is reason to believe that the idea of using the natural synoptic
period as a unit of time may prove useful for practice until the seiche period
can be determined by initial or boundary conditions.
/Figures on following pages
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Figure 1. Disposition of Points Where Nodal Diameters of
Contiguous Natural Synoptic Periods Intersect
Figure 2. Map of Temperature Anomaly for the NL oral
Synoptic Period From 29 December 1942 Through 4 January
1943: 1-Positive Isanomaly: 2-Zero Isanomaly; 3-Nega-
tive Isanomaly
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J6 /B O !8 ,76 J4 72 90
6
IY
s1
O,. ~-
2
.??
40
0
0
Figure 3. Map of the Temperature Anomaly for the Natural
Synoptic Period From 5 to 10 January 1943 (Same Key as Fig-
ure 2)
J6 /8 0 /e 76 54 7.2 ' 90
X2 0
?-
~
4
,- ~
+
4
.
_2
J6
0 18
Figure 4. Map of the Temperature Anomaly for the Natural
Synoptic Period From 11 to 1'T January 1943 (Same Key as Fig-
ure 2)
NROL N AL
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