SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR MANCHURIAN FARM PRODUCTS

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CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3
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RIPPUB
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C
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14
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December 22, 2016
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August 19, 2011
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847
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Publication Date: 
November 6, 1950
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REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL ~'~j~~111~~~~~~ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY REPORT INFORMATION FROM FOREIGN DOCUMENTS OR RADIO BROADCASTS CD NO. COUNTRY China SUBJECT ~ Economic -Agriculture HOW PUBLISHED Book WHERE PUBLISHED Mukden DATE PUBLISHED Feb 1948 LANGUAGE Chinese Txm ooaur[xr eoxTelxs I[ro![eno[ unrnxa Tx[ xeno[u D[n[[![ or n[ uxlno arena nnlx ix! ^uxua or [!noun[ ?er w V. !. ~? S 1 ex0 i!. AS ex[wEO. ITS TlexltllSiOx ox Tx! [[II[Un01 of ITS CO NTIxn Ix exT Ilexx[x TO ex Y[eYTlo[InD ltHOx IS P!D? NIl ITED [T U}, ^[Ta000 rnox 0/ TNI! roar IS IWxI[In D. Northeast Economic Report, Vol III, Agricultural Products, Northeast Resources Survey Committee. DATE OF INFORMATION 1948 DATE DIST. to Nov 1950 N0.OF PAGES 14 SUPPLEMENT TO REPORT N0. Postwar figures for production and consumption of agricultural products in the Northeast are too fragmentary to be the basis of any estimates at present ~94~. Although dislocations due to the war must be evaluated, the following data, covering basically the years 1937 - 1943 and complete, with certain exceptions, may be used to make plans for the future. Supply Period . Year Production Imports Free 1934 13,500,388 776,230 ~conony 1935 15,675,568 724,577 1936 16,550,646 426,278 1937. 16,606,311 173,817 1938 19,393,998 388,959 1939 18,143,662 519,808 Exports (B), 14,166;598 3,914,624 16,400,145 3,742,260 16,976,924 3,641,339 16,780,128 4,196,985 19,782,957 4,356,255 18,663,470 2,874,100 A-B Index 10,351,974 l00 12,657,885 122 13,335,565 129 12,583,143 122 15,426,702 149 15,789,370 153 .~ ', -1- '.CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL CQ~~IDE~1'~.I~~. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 ' ~ NOTES 1. Production figures obtained from Manchukuo data; Jehol and Hsingan nOt inrl,iLled until 1Q37., 2, For 1934 - 1938, production figurea for vegetable oil materials are not available in detail; consequently, export figures for these years are used for production figures; SMR figures are used for beans and grains. 4. For import figures, flour and rice are calculated in whole grains (flour is considered 75 percent of original; rice, 70 percent). 5. For export figures, perilla oil is reckoned as 36 percent of whole seed; other oils, except bean, 21 percent. 6. Among the oil producing seeds, only perilla, hemp, castor, and sesamum seeds, and peanuts included. 7. Trade controls were enforced in 1939, so figures-for that year are `estimates? Under the free economy, recorded consumption averaged 13.,400,000 metric tons; under controlled economy, it rose sharply ? to an average of 16,800,000 metric tons. Estimates of 15 million . ? and 17 million metric tons, respectively, are probably nearer the truth. Supply and Demand of Grains and Fodder (1934 - 1943) (In metric tons} Supply Demand ' Period Year Production Imports Total (A) Exports (B') A-B Index Free 1934 9.591.785 766,230. 10,358,015 '436,477 9,921,538 100 Economy 1935 11,516,138 724,577 12,240,715 623,'+93 11,617,222 117 1936 12,078,882 426,278 12,505,160 529,308 11,97 852 121 1937 12,19o,7i4 173,817 12,364,531 816,298 11,548,233 116 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Supply Demand Period Year Production Imports Total (6) Exports (B} A-B~ Index Free 1938 14,544,005 388,959 14,93?,964 817,249 14,061,715 142 Economy 1939 13,983,415 519,808 14,503,223 416,922 14,086,301 142 Avg 12,317,490 499,945 12,817,435 615,624 12,201,811 126 Con- 1940 14,917,269 277,948 15,195,217 530,815 14,664,402 148 trolled Economy 1941 15,150,297 110,316 15,260,613 419,750 14,840,863 150 1942 14,403,679 103,673 14,507,352 470,486 14,036,866 141 1943 15,969,730 122,526 16,092,256 895,218 15,197,038 153 Avg 15,110,244 153,616 15,163,860 579,067 14,684,752 146 Gen Avg 13,434,591 361,413 13,796,004 601,001 13,195,003 133 Until 1937 ~i~ imports exceeded exportsa Contrary to the general im- preseioiS', only in that year did Manchuria become afood-surplus areae 'YlTe increase of consumption over the periods appears small in comparison with the increase in populationo That no g_+'eat scarcity of food has been felt is due to the greatly increased production of potatoes, ergo, about 2,100,000 metric tons in 19430 Quantities consumed locally and marketed were as follows (in metric tons)a 1938 1943 Consumed locally 10,150,000 10,810,000 Marketed 3,910,000 4,300,000 .,Total 14,060,000 15,110,000 To obtain the nonrural demand, add imports to amount marketed and deduct exports, ,~ Of the total 4,300,000 metric tons marketed in 1943, 800,000 metric tons were for military usee Nonmilitary consumption in Liaoning in 1943~was nearly half of the total for that year for sll Manchukuoo Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 CONFIDENTIAL Demand for Beans in Manchuria (by years) (In metric tone) Period Year Production Exports Demand Index Free 1934 3,599,530 1,992,431 1,607,099 100 Economy 1935 3,822,287 1,858,358 1,963,929 122 '-936 4,175,453 1,993,045 2,182,408 136 1937 4,128,923 2,203,987 1,924,936 119 1938 4,624,946 2,108,294 2,516,652 157 1939 3,955,978 1,559,833 2,396,145 149 Avg 4,051,186 1,952,658 2,098,528 131 Con- 1940 3,619,425 792,527 2,826,898 176 trolled Economy 1941 3,386,787 660,000 2,726,787 170 1942 3,026,251 701,554 2,324,697 145 . 1943 3,259,068 779,902 2,479,166 154 ~ Avg 3,322,882 733,495 2,589,387 161 Gen Avg 3,759,864 1,464,993 2,294,871 143 NOTE: The demand for beans in Manchuria during the free economy period was around 2 million metric tons per annum; under the controlled economy, it ,jumped to about 2.5 million metric tons as shown in the above table. There was considerable illegal movement during this time, so the fig- ures in the "Demand" column should be revised downward to represent the actu8l quantities, It is estimated tha$ the average demand during the controlled economy period, 2,590,000 tons, 'may be divided as follows (on the basis of a 6-year average): + Retained on farms: 1,340,000 Marketed 1,250,000 Generally speaking, exports under controlled economy were much less than under the free economy, Moat of the 1,590,000 tons of beans marketed in 1943 were taken by the oil mills, Some 100,000 tons pent to~the military, and a similar amount was consumed ae food. Under free economy, over one million metric tons probably went to the oil mills, 50 percent to Dairen, 10 percent to Harbin, and the remainder to smaller places. Of late, Dairen's share in this industry has been diminishing. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 50X1-HUM Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 -1 Bean Cakes Between 1934 and 1939, the average annual production of bean cakes was 900,000 ta7:;370,000 metric toned Most of this was exported; only about 200,000 metric tons were consumed domestically Under the controlled economy, both military and civilian consumption increased, as shown belowo Consumption of Bean Cakes (In metric tons) Civilian use of bean cakes has increased 100 percent since the free econ- omy for two reasonso (11 fertilizers were .required. to enrich soils in the southern sections and (2) to meet greatly increased demand for tobacco, hemp, cotton, etc, which need strong fertilizero Bean cakes were used to supple- ment a decreasing supply of ammonium sulfated In 1942 I,isoning used more bean cakes for fertilizer than all other provinces combined, Bean Oil Between 1934 and 1939, the average annual production of bean oil was es- timated at -100,000-130,000) metric tons, about half of which was exportedo Most of the remainder was consumed for food in Manchuria, with a small amount used for induatriel purposes The amount used for food was in inverse proportion to the consumption of animal fats and other vegetable oils, In theory, the total thus used should increase in proportion to increases in the population, but due to complexity of factors and lack of data, the figures do not fully bear this out, Taking 3 kilograms as the ..annual per-capita consumption of all fats and oils, and the population as 35 million in 1934 and 48 million in 1944, and as- suming an annual increment of l05 million persons, rie get the following esti- mated consumption of edible oils: ? Metric Tons 1935 99,000 1936 103,500 1937 108,000 1938 ~ 112,500 1939 117,000 1940 121,500 1941 127,000 1942 131,500 1943 13?,000 191,4 140,500 CONFTDENTIAI, {fo~7 ~~L~.1 ~r~l~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 ~ ' ~o~~l~~~~~~~ Under the free economy, some 40-60 percent of edible oils consumed was bean oilo Under the controlled economy, the individual ration of bean oil was reduced and a large amount diverted to industry, and fishing, as shown by the following figures for bean oil in 1943 (in metric tons): ' Total 102,500 ~i~ Exports 3,000 Surplus 37,000 142,500 Consumption of bean oil, for food, industrial, and military uses, shows ~ a,consideralrle increase during the period of controlled economy, as compared i7.~' aith the free economy periodo Yet in the controlled economy period the per- >' capita ration was reduced to 2 kilograms annually, and even less in the more ~' northern arease Perilla Seeds and Products Production of perilla seeds declined from 170,000 metric tons in 1935 to 120,000 in 1938, Exports fell from 120,000 metric tons in 1935 to 50,000 in 1937 Deducting exports, some 60,000 metric tons were consumed annually in Manchuria, of which about half was retained locally, and the remainder mostly sold to the oil millsa The principal customer was the Jih-Ch'ing Mill, in Dairena Under the controlled economy, exports fell almost to a vanishing point, In 1943, the domes+.ic demand was about 22,000 metric tons, about half re- tained on the farm, the other half going to the mills, and a small portion be- ing used to feed army pigeonso From 1935 to 1938; about 20,000 tons of perilla oil were produced annu- ally, mostly used in .the manufacture of painto Perilla products were formerly an important export, but with lessened supply to the mills, export of perilla oil fell to about 2,000 tons in 1943, In that year, about 3;600 tons were produced; 600 tons were used in industry, 1,000 tone by the army, and the rest went abroado Production of perilla mash was about 4,800 metric tons is 1943 of which some 1,500 metric tone went ?to Japan, and the remainder was used in Manchuria as feed and fertilizer, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 CONFIQ~I~TI~~ Under the free economy, hemp seeds were used mostly on the farms for seed and food But, as the controlled economy forced a decrease in the production of perilla seeds, hemp seeds replaced them as a source of oils. Approximate figures of hemp products bought and sold by the control corporation in 1943 follow (in metric tona)c Hemp seed Bought by control corporation Consumption In Manchuria, mills, 19,000 seed, 2,000 55,000 21,000 Export 33,000 Total Hemp oil and mash 54,000 Oil Mash Total Production Consumption 4,400 14,000 18,400 Industry 1,500 -- 1,500 Fertilizer -- 6,000 6,000 Others 400 -- 400 Military 700 ~ 740 Total 2,600 6,000 8,600 Exported i,5oo 6,000 7,500 Total 4,100 12,000 16,100 Castor Seeds, Peanuts, and Their Derivatives Under the free economy, castor seeds, peanuts, and their derivatives were mostly marketed, except for small quantities kept for oil and food< Some 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons were used to produce oil, most of xhich was exportedo About 100,000 metric tons of peanuts were shipped abroad during the free econ- omy, Under controls, the export of peanuts was greatly reducedo Production of castor beans was also reduced, but there was forced culti- vation to supply oil for airplaneso Figures for castor bean products handled by the control corporation in 1943 are (in metric tone): Castor beans bought by control corporation 26,000 ' Consumption Mills Seed 20,000 3,000 Total ~ 23,000 Export. 3,000 Total 26,000 -7_ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 ~~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 ~0~~~~~~~'~"~ Castor oil consumed Industry 130 Medicine 130 Military 7,500 Total 7,780 Supply of and Demand for Sorghum (kaoliang), Millet, and Corn Sorghum, millet, and corn make up the bulk of the food of the Manchurian people, Supply of and Demand for Staple Grains in Manchuria (In metric tons) Demand ar Y Production Export Est Consumption Index Period e Free 1934 7,291,150 248,416 7,042,734 100 Economy 1935 8,613,888 426,976 8,186,912 116 1936 9,117,374 354,925 8,762,449 124 1937 9,241,361 637,53L~ 8,603,827 122 1938 11,132,131 672,067 10,460,064 149 1939 10,608,966 300,142 10,308,824 146 Avg 9,334 145 440,010 8,894,135 126 Con- 1940 11,609,943 458,000 11,151,943 158 trolled Economy 1941 11,651,574 363,970 11,287,604 160 1942 11.,275,933 .470,486 10,805,447 153 1943 13,184,869 783,896 12,400,973 176 Avg 11,930,592 519,088 117411,491 162 ? Gen 141 Avg 10,372,718 471,077 9,901,077 The entire gral.n consumption for food and feed has been estimated at 14- 15 million metric tons annually? Amounts consumed locally and marketed are shown below (in ~aetric tons)a 50X1-HUM ~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 -1 Year 1938 1943 Consumed locally 8,390,000 8,960,000 Marketed 2,980,000 3,450,000 Total 11,370,000 12,410,000 Under the free economy, consumption of rice varied with the price, habits, and economic condition of the consumers, After the Japanese occupation of Man- churia in 1931, the influx of rice-eating Koreans and Japanese increased the consumption of and demand for riceo Supply of and Demand for Rice under Free Economy (In metric tons) Sunn7v Demand Year Production Import Total (A) Export (B) A-B I nde 1934 338,551 68,834 407,385 -- 107,385 100 1935 ;; 453,948 104,257 558,205 -- 558,205 137 1936 574,423 145,721 720,144,, -- 720,144 177 1937 655,762 77,409 733,171 -- 733,171 180 1938 723,091 72,204 795,295 --? 795,295 195 1939 790,982 105,397 896,379 -- 894,379 220 NOTE: Figures are reckoned from Manchukuo data for hulled rice, Under the free economy, consumption of rice increased annuallyo With the coming of controls, there was a sudden drop because natives were not permitted to eat riceo Even by the time of restoration of Manchuria to China, consump- tion had not come back to the quantity under free economye Supply and Demand of Rice under Controlled Economy (In metric tons) SuPPly o Demand Year Production Import Total?(A) Export (B) A-B Index 1940 685,618 .74,298 759,907 -- 759,907 loo 1941 808,002 9,797 817,799 -- 817,799 108 1942 582,146 33,193 615,339 -- 615,339 81 1943 692,575 15,553 709,128 -- 709,128 93 Avg 692,085 33,458 725,543 --? 725,543 95 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 -l NOTE: Manchukuo figures. Estimated consumption on farms for 1943, 203,000 metric tons; marketed, 506,000 metric, tons Civilian Foos 304,000 Liquor 8,000 Seed 10,000 Others 9,000 subtotal 331,000 Military 141,000 Carry-over _ 34,000 }i Wheat and Flour Because of poor climatic conditions and cheapness of imports, Manchukuo was never self-supporting in,wheat, as indicated by the following tabled Year 1934. 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Supply and Demand of Wheat under Free Economy (In metric tons) Supply Demand Production Import Total (A) Export (B) A-B Index 638,568 697,396 1,335,964 2,535 1,333,429 loo 1,015,464 620,320 1,634,784 29,286 1,606,798 120 953,210 280,557 1,233,767 2,328 1,222,439 91.7 897,367 98,408 993,775 1$,371 975,404 732 912,554 316,755 1,229,309 -- 1,229,309 92.2 945,831 414,411 1,360,242 -- 1,3~~,242 102.0 993,832 404,308 1,398,140 10,253 1,287,887 992 NOTES: 1. Figures from Manchukuo sources. Flour computed as 75 percent of wheat weight and reduced to wheat at this ratio. 2. Of the average domestic consumption under free economy, about 60 per- cent or over 500,000 metric tons was marketed. It may be estimated that 730,000-850,000 tons of flour were processed or imported per year. This was equivalent to 32,700,000-38,b00,000 bags, at 22 kil- ograms per tiag. During the free economy period, the per-capita pro- duction of flour was 22 kilograms, or one bag. Taking the average population as 35 million, there is a reasonable correlation between the figures for production and demand as shown above. 50X1-HUM Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 ~~~~~~4?.r~?~4!~1. CONFIDENTIAL With the aavez.+ of ~ontrolle3 economy, there wa= a decline ir_ both produc- tior_ and marketing of whea*_ ae shown below Supply and Demand of Wheat during Oontrolled Economy (In metric tons} Supply Demand Year Production Import Total (A) E ort B) A-B Index 1.940 ~ 877,865 203,659 1,081;524 -- 1,081,524 100 1941 845,273 100,519 945,792 -- 945,792 87 1942 693,6 70,480 764,366 -- 764,366 71 1943 392,490 105,973 498,463 -- 498,463 46 Av g 702,378 120,158 822,536 -- 822,536 76 NO_"E~ Manchukuo source= useda Of the amount bought by the control corporation, the larger part .went to manufacture sauces ~ic7 and other uses, leaving only about 120,000 metric tons for flour In 1943, the supply of 180,000 metric tons of flour (100,000 metric tons manufactured, 80,000 imported) was not 24 percent of that under free econ- omy Exports of Unprocessed and Processed Products (In metric tons) Year Unprocessed Mash Subtotal Oils Total 1912 760,000 640,000 1,400,000 40,000 1,440,000 1931 3,760,000 l,goo,oo0 5,660,000 187;000 5,847,000 1g43 1,630,000 590,000 2,220,000 7,000 2,227,000 NOi~ES; 1, Sources are North Ohina and Manchukuo published statistics 2. Before 1939, only beans, bean mash and bean oil are reported; after that date, other products are i.ncl.udede 3~ Before 1939, unit is calendar year; thereafter, October 1 to Septem- ber 300 It is noteworthy that a peak in the annual figures was reached in 1931? Before that time there was a fairly continuous rise in quantities; after that a decl.ire until 1943, when exports were less than half of thoae in the peak yearn Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 CONFIDENTIAL 50X1-HUM Exports of Beans and Dean Product: (In metric tones) year Beans Bean Cakes Subtotal Bean 011 Total 1912 550,000 640,000 1,190,000 40,000 1,230,000 1931 2,840,000 1,900,000 4,740,000 187,000 4,927,000 1843 78o,ooa 580,000 1,360,000 lo,oo0 1,270,000 Destination of Bean Exports (In thousand. metric tons) l9~ 1939 19!+3 Germany Britain France 351 253 212 100 -- -- -- -- -- Holland 6 -- -- Italy ~ 27 -- -- Denmark None -- -- Norway None -- -- Egypt 340 -_ __. USSR 76 -- -- subtotal 1,265 100 -- East Asia 917 605 780 Total 2,182 705 780 Exports of bean cakes and bean oil to other countries, including the US, show a similar decline in the decade 1934 - 1943 Broadly speaking, of the total imports of beans by European countries, exclusive of the USSR, during 193LL _ 1938, about half came from Manchukuoe Of the beans, 444 percent, and of the bean-oil, 26x4 percent, was car- ried in British ships, 23,.5 percent of the beans, and 49 percent of the bean oil, in German bottoms Nert in share of t?he total business, came Norway fol- lowed by Denmark, Greece and Japan From 1931 to 1943, US production of soybeans increased very rapidly, Prom 455,400 tons to 4,975,487 tons.. This offered serious competition to Manchuria in world markets, Manchuria must improve and diversify its processing of soy- beans if' she is to maintain her competitive position Other 011 Seeda and Their Products Statistics as to the exports of other oil seeds and products are very meagero The following 1943 data will give a general idea (in thousand metric tons): . S E E D S Perilla Hemp Peanut Castor Seeamum Cotton Subtotal ~7 33 1 3 Little None 64 0 T L S Perilla Other Mash Total Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 In total exports, of grains, the peak year xas 1926, with a record of 1,705,000 metric tons It is to be noted that the export of wheat reached its height in 1920 with 875,000 metric tons After that, the proportion of wheat among exported grains diminished, vanishing altogether in 1939 In 1943, grain exports went to the following places (in metric tons): Japan 227,000 Korea 293,000 China 274,000 Total 794,000 Future of Supply and Demand oP Manchurian Farm Products The demand for food and feed in Manchukuo is very hard to calculated It is estimated that in 1945 consumption of grains and oils in the rural areas would be at leas+. 10 million metric tons, and in urban areas, 4 million metric tons, totaling a minimum of 14 million metric tone for domestic consumption, In the 5 years, 191+0-b>l, total farm production averaged 18,750,000 tons Reducing this figure by about 20 percent because of troubled conditions, we get a production figure of 13,100,000 to 15,000,000 tons f'or i94~:;~~ Taking 15 million as production and 14 million as consumption, we find that in beans and oils, the supply exceeds demand with a surplus for export; but in edible grains, demand exceeds supply, thus requiring imported If a production figure of 13 million tons is assumed, the deficit will be still larger Due to the repatriation of Korean and Japanese farmers and the shortage of tools and fertilizers, it will be difficult to augment the rice supplyo Therefore, at present there may be some beans for export, but grains will remain insufficient, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3 -1 ~~~~~D~NTI~~ GORFIDENTIAL In Manchurian farming, r_rop rotation is fundamental; otherwise, there is sn imbalance between supply and prices, as between grains and beans, Sudden neglect of crop rotation should be avoided in order not to upset the marketo As to increasing output, the most improved methods should be used, and a goal of 17,000,000 tons should be establishedo 50X1-HUM Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/14 :CIA-RDP80-00809A000600350847-3