SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR MANCHURIAN FARM PRODUCTS
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Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
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Original Classification:
C
Document Page Count:
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Document Creation Date:
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Document Release Date:
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Sequence Number:
847
Case Number:
Publication Date:
November 6, 1950
Content Type:
REPORT
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CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL ~'~j~~111~~~~~~
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY REPORT
INFORMATION FROM
FOREIGN DOCUMENTS OR RADIO BROADCASTS CD NO.
COUNTRY China
SUBJECT ~ Economic -Agriculture
HOW
PUBLISHED Book
WHERE
PUBLISHED Mukden
DATE
PUBLISHED Feb 1948
LANGUAGE Chinese
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or n[ uxlno arena nnlx ix! ^uxua or [!noun[ ?er w
V. !. ~? S 1 ex0 i!. AS ex[wEO. ITS TlexltllSiOx ox Tx! [[II[Un01
of ITS CO NTIxn Ix exT Ilexx[x TO ex Y[eYTlo[InD ltHOx IS P!D?
NIl ITED [T U}, ^[Ta000 rnox 0/ TNI! roar IS IWxI[In D.
Northeast Economic Report, Vol III, Agricultural Products, Northeast
Resources Survey Committee.
DATE OF
INFORMATION 1948
DATE DIST. to Nov 1950
N0.OF PAGES 14
SUPPLEMENT TO
REPORT N0.
Postwar figures for production and consumption of agricultural products
in the Northeast are too fragmentary to be the basis of any estimates at
present ~94~. Although dislocations due to the war must be evaluated, the
following data, covering basically the years 1937 - 1943 and complete, with
certain exceptions, may be used to make plans for the future.
Supply
Period .
Year
Production
Imports
Free
1934
13,500,388
776,230
~conony
1935
15,675,568
724,577
1936
16,550,646
426,278
1937.
16,606,311
173,817
1938
19,393,998
388,959
1939
18,143,662
519,808
Exports (B),
14,166;598
3,914,624
16,400,145
3,742,260
16,976,924
3,641,339
16,780,128
4,196,985
19,782,957
4,356,255
18,663,470
2,874,100
A-B
Index
10,351,974
l00
12,657,885
122
13,335,565
129
12,583,143
122
15,426,702
149
15,789,370
153
.~ ', -1-
'.CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL CQ~~IDE~1'~.I~~.
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NOTES 1. Production figures obtained from Manchukuo data; Jehol and Hsingan
nOt inrl,iLled until 1Q37.,
2, For 1934 - 1938, production figurea for vegetable oil materials
are not available in detail; consequently, export figures for these
years are used for production figures; SMR figures are used for
beans and grains.
4. For import figures, flour and rice are calculated in whole grains
(flour is considered 75 percent of original; rice, 70 percent).
5. For export figures, perilla oil is reckoned as 36 percent of whole
seed; other oils, except bean, 21 percent.
6. Among the oil producing seeds, only perilla, hemp, castor, and
sesamum seeds, and peanuts included.
7. Trade controls were enforced in 1939, so figures-for that year are
`estimates? Under the free economy, recorded consumption averaged
13.,400,000 metric tons; under controlled economy, it rose sharply
? to an average of 16,800,000 metric tons. Estimates of 15 million
. ? and 17 million metric tons, respectively, are probably nearer the
truth.
Supply and Demand of Grains and Fodder (1934 - 1943)
(In metric tons}
Supply
Demand '
Period
Year
Production
Imports
Total (A)
Exports (B')
A-B
Index
Free
1934
9.591.785
766,230.
10,358,015
'436,477
9,921,538
100
Economy
1935
11,516,138
724,577
12,240,715
623,'+93
11,617,222
117
1936
12,078,882
426,278
12,505,160
529,308
11,97 852
121
1937
12,19o,7i4
173,817
12,364,531
816,298
11,548,233
116
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Supply
Demand
Period
Year
Production Imports
Total (6)
Exports (B}
A-B~
Index
Free 1938
14,544,005 388,959
14,93?,964
817,249
14,061,715
142
Economy
1939
13,983,415 519,808
14,503,223
416,922
14,086,301
142
Avg
12,317,490 499,945
12,817,435
615,624
12,201,811
126
Con-
1940
14,917,269 277,948
15,195,217
530,815
14,664,402
148
trolled
Economy
1941
15,150,297 110,316
15,260,613
419,750
14,840,863
150
1942
14,403,679 103,673
14,507,352
470,486
14,036,866
141
1943
15,969,730 122,526
16,092,256
895,218
15,197,038
153
Avg
15,110,244 153,616
15,163,860
579,067
14,684,752
146
Gen
Avg
13,434,591 361,413
13,796,004
601,001
13,195,003
133
Until 1937 ~i~ imports exceeded exportsa Contrary to the general im-
preseioiS', only in that year did Manchuria become afood-surplus areae
'YlTe increase of consumption over the periods appears small in comparison
with the increase in populationo That no g_+'eat scarcity of food has been felt
is due to the greatly increased production of potatoes, ergo, about 2,100,000
metric tons in 19430
Quantities consumed locally and marketed were as follows (in metric tons)a
1938
1943
Consumed locally
10,150,000
10,810,000
Marketed
3,910,000
4,300,000
.,Total
14,060,000
15,110,000
To obtain the nonrural demand, add imports to amount marketed and deduct
exports, ,~
Of the total 4,300,000 metric tons marketed in 1943, 800,000 metric tons
were for military usee Nonmilitary consumption in Liaoning in 1943~was nearly
half of the total for that year for sll Manchukuoo
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CONFIDENTIAL
Demand for Beans in Manchuria (by years)
(In metric tone)
Period
Year
Production
Exports
Demand
Index
Free
1934
3,599,530
1,992,431
1,607,099
100
Economy
1935
3,822,287
1,858,358
1,963,929
122
'-936
4,175,453
1,993,045
2,182,408
136
1937
4,128,923
2,203,987
1,924,936
119
1938
4,624,946
2,108,294
2,516,652
157
1939
3,955,978
1,559,833
2,396,145
149
Avg
4,051,186
1,952,658
2,098,528
131
Con-
1940
3,619,425
792,527
2,826,898
176
trolled
Economy
1941
3,386,787
660,000
2,726,787
170
1942
3,026,251
701,554
2,324,697
145
.
1943
3,259,068
779,902
2,479,166
154
~
Avg
3,322,882
733,495
2,589,387
161
Gen
Avg
3,759,864
1,464,993
2,294,871
143
NOTE: The demand for beans in Manchuria during the free economy period was
around 2 million metric tons per annum; under the controlled economy,
it ,jumped to about 2.5 million metric tons as shown in the above table.
There was considerable illegal movement during this time, so the fig-
ures in the "Demand" column should be revised downward to represent
the actu8l quantities,
It is estimated tha$ the average demand during the controlled economy
period, 2,590,000 tons, 'may be divided as follows (on the basis of a 6-year
average): +
Retained on farms: 1,340,000
Marketed 1,250,000
Generally speaking, exports under controlled economy were much less
than under the free economy,
Moat of the 1,590,000 tons of beans marketed in 1943 were taken by the
oil mills, Some 100,000 tons pent to~the military, and a similar amount was
consumed ae food. Under free economy, over one million metric tons probably
went to the oil mills, 50 percent to Dairen, 10 percent to Harbin, and the
remainder to smaller places. Of late, Dairen's share in this industry has
been diminishing.
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Bean Cakes
Between 1934 and 1939, the average annual production of bean cakes was
900,000 ta7:;370,000 metric toned Most of this was exported; only about 200,000
metric tons were consumed domestically Under the controlled economy, both
military and civilian consumption increased, as shown belowo
Consumption of Bean Cakes
(In metric tons)
Civilian use of bean cakes has increased 100 percent since the free econ-
omy for two reasonso (11 fertilizers were .required. to enrich soils in the
southern sections and (2) to meet greatly increased demand for tobacco, hemp,
cotton, etc, which need strong fertilizero Bean cakes were used to supple-
ment a decreasing supply of ammonium sulfated In 1942 I,isoning used more bean
cakes for fertilizer than all other provinces combined,
Bean Oil
Between 1934 and 1939, the average annual production of bean oil was es-
timated at -100,000-130,000) metric tons, about half of which was exportedo
Most of the remainder was consumed for food in Manchuria, with a small amount
used for induatriel purposes
The amount used for food was in inverse proportion to the consumption of
animal fats and other vegetable oils, In theory, the total thus used should
increase in proportion to increases in the population, but due to complexity
of factors and lack of data, the figures do not fully bear this out,
Taking 3 kilograms as the ..annual per-capita consumption of all fats and
oils, and the population as 35 million in 1934 and 48 million in 1944, and as-
suming an annual increment of l05 million persons, rie get the following esti-
mated consumption of edible oils:
?
Metric Tons
1935
99,000
1936
103,500
1937
108,000
1938 ~
112,500
1939
117,000
1940
121,500
1941
127,000
1942
131,500
1943
13?,000
191,4
140,500
CONFTDENTIAI,
{fo~7 ~~L~.1 ~r~l~
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Under the free economy, some 40-60 percent of edible oils consumed was
bean oilo Under the controlled economy, the individual ration of bean oil was
reduced and a large amount diverted to industry, and fishing, as shown by the
following figures for bean oil in 1943 (in metric tons): '
Total
102,500 ~i~
Exports
3,000
Surplus
37,000
142,500
Consumption of bean oil, for food, industrial, and military uses, shows
~ a,consideralrle increase during the period of controlled economy, as compared
i7.~' aith the free economy periodo Yet in the controlled economy period the per-
>' capita ration was reduced to 2 kilograms annually, and even less in the more
~' northern arease
Perilla Seeds and Products
Production of perilla seeds declined from 170,000 metric tons in 1935 to
120,000 in 1938, Exports fell from 120,000 metric tons in 1935 to 50,000 in
1937 Deducting exports, some 60,000 metric tons were consumed annually in
Manchuria, of which about half was retained locally, and the remainder mostly
sold to the oil millsa The principal customer was the Jih-Ch'ing Mill, in
Dairena Under the controlled economy, exports fell almost to a vanishing
point,
In 1943, the domes+.ic demand was about 22,000 metric tons, about half re-
tained on the farm, the other half going to the mills, and a small portion be-
ing used to feed army pigeonso
From 1935 to 1938; about 20,000 tons of perilla oil were produced annu-
ally, mostly used in .the manufacture of painto Perilla products were formerly
an important export, but with lessened supply to the mills, export of perilla
oil fell to about 2,000 tons in 1943, In that year, about 3;600 tons were
produced; 600 tons were used in industry, 1,000 tone by the army, and the rest
went abroado
Production of perilla mash was about 4,800 metric tons is 1943 of which
some 1,500 metric tone went ?to Japan, and the remainder was used in Manchuria
as feed and fertilizer,
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CONFIQ~I~TI~~
Under the free economy, hemp seeds were used mostly on the farms for seed
and food But, as the controlled economy forced a decrease in the production
of perilla seeds, hemp seeds replaced them as a source of oils. Approximate
figures of hemp products bought and sold by the control corporation in 1943
follow (in metric tona)c
Hemp seed
Bought by control corporation
Consumption
In Manchuria, mills, 19,000
seed, 2,000
55,000
21,000
Export
33,000
Total
Hemp oil and mash
54,000
Oil
Mash
Total
Production
Consumption
4,400
14,000
18,400
Industry
1,500
--
1,500
Fertilizer
--
6,000
6,000
Others
400
--
400
Military
700
~
740
Total
2,600
6,000
8,600
Exported
i,5oo
6,000
7,500
Total
4,100
12,000
16,100
Castor Seeds, Peanuts, and Their Derivatives
Under the free economy, castor seeds, peanuts, and their derivatives were
mostly marketed, except for small quantities kept for oil and food< Some 5,000
to 10,000 metric tons were used to produce oil, most of xhich was exportedo
About 100,000 metric tons of peanuts were shipped abroad during the free econ-
omy, Under controls, the export of peanuts was greatly reducedo
Production of castor beans was also reduced, but there was forced culti-
vation to supply oil for airplaneso Figures for castor bean products handled
by the control corporation in 1943 are (in metric tone):
Castor beans bought by control corporation 26,000
' Consumption
Mills
Seed
20,000
3,000
Total ~ 23,000
Export. 3,000
Total 26,000
-7_
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Castor oil consumed
Industry 130
Medicine 130
Military 7,500
Total 7,780
Supply of and Demand for Sorghum (kaoliang), Millet, and Corn
Sorghum, millet, and corn make up the bulk of the food of the Manchurian
people,
Supply of and Demand for Staple Grains in Manchuria
(In metric tons)
Demand
ar
Y
Production
Export
Est Consumption Index
Period
e
Free
1934
7,291,150
248,416
7,042,734
100
Economy
1935
8,613,888
426,976
8,186,912
116
1936
9,117,374
354,925
8,762,449
124
1937
9,241,361
637,53L~
8,603,827
122
1938
11,132,131
672,067
10,460,064
149
1939
10,608,966
300,142
10,308,824
146
Avg
9,334 145
440,010
8,894,135
126
Con-
1940
11,609,943
458,000
11,151,943
158
trolled
Economy
1941
11,651,574
363,970
11,287,604
160
1942
11.,275,933
.470,486
10,805,447
153
1943
13,184,869
783,896
12,400,973
176
Avg
11,930,592
519,088
117411,491
162
?
Gen
141
Avg
10,372,718
471,077
9,901,077
The entire gral.n consumption for food and feed has been estimated at 14-
15 million metric tons annually? Amounts consumed locally and marketed are
shown below (in ~aetric tons)a
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Year 1938 1943
Consumed locally
8,390,000
8,960,000
Marketed
2,980,000
3,450,000
Total
11,370,000
12,410,000
Under the free economy, consumption of rice varied with the price, habits,
and economic condition of the consumers, After the Japanese occupation of Man-
churia in 1931, the influx of rice-eating Koreans and Japanese increased the
consumption of and demand for riceo
Supply of and Demand for Rice under Free Economy
(In metric tons)
Sunn7v
Demand
Year
Production
Import
Total (A) Export (B)
A-B I
nde
1934
338,551
68,834
407,385 --
107,385
100
1935 ;;
453,948
104,257
558,205 --
558,205
137
1936
574,423
145,721
720,144,, --
720,144
177
1937
655,762
77,409
733,171 --
733,171
180
1938
723,091
72,204
795,295 --?
795,295
195
1939
790,982
105,397
896,379 --
894,379
220
NOTE: Figures are reckoned from Manchukuo data for hulled rice,
Under the free economy, consumption of rice increased annuallyo With the
coming of controls, there was a sudden drop because natives were not permitted
to eat riceo Even by the time of restoration of Manchuria to China, consump-
tion had not come back to the quantity under free economye
Supply and Demand of Rice under Controlled Economy
(In metric tons)
SuPPly o
Demand
Year
Production
Import
Total?(A)
Export (B)
A-B
Index
1940
685,618
.74,298
759,907
--
759,907
loo
1941
808,002
9,797
817,799
--
817,799
108
1942
582,146
33,193
615,339
--
615,339
81
1943
692,575
15,553
709,128
--
709,128
93
Avg
692,085
33,458
725,543
--?
725,543
95
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NOTE: Manchukuo figures. Estimated consumption on farms for 1943, 203,000
metric tons; marketed, 506,000 metric, tons
Civilian
Foos 304,000
Liquor
8,000
Seed
10,000
Others
9,000
subtotal
331,000
Military
141,000
Carry-over _
34,000
}i Wheat and Flour
Because of poor climatic conditions and cheapness of imports, Manchukuo
was never self-supporting in,wheat, as indicated by the following tabled
Year
1934.
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Supply and Demand of Wheat under Free Economy
(In metric tons)
Supply
Demand
Production
Import
Total (A)
Export (B)
A-B
Index
638,568
697,396
1,335,964
2,535
1,333,429
loo
1,015,464
620,320
1,634,784
29,286
1,606,798
120
953,210
280,557
1,233,767
2,328
1,222,439
91.7
897,367
98,408
993,775
1$,371
975,404
732
912,554
316,755
1,229,309
--
1,229,309
92.2
945,831
414,411
1,360,242
--
1,3~~,242
102.0
993,832
404,308
1,398,140
10,253
1,287,887
992
NOTES: 1. Figures from Manchukuo sources. Flour computed as 75 percent of wheat
weight and reduced to wheat at this ratio.
2. Of the average domestic consumption under free economy, about 60 per-
cent or over 500,000 metric tons was marketed. It may be estimated
that 730,000-850,000 tons of flour were processed or imported per
year. This was equivalent to 32,700,000-38,b00,000 bags, at 22 kil-
ograms per tiag. During the free economy period, the per-capita pro-
duction of flour was 22 kilograms, or one bag. Taking the average
population as 35 million, there is a reasonable correlation between
the figures for production and demand as shown above.
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CONFIDENTIAL
With the aavez.+ of ~ontrolle3 economy, there wa= a decline ir_ both produc-
tior_ and marketing of whea*_ ae shown below
Supply and Demand of Wheat during Oontrolled Economy
(In metric tons}
Supply
Demand
Year
Production
Import
Total (A) E ort B)
A-B
Index
1.940
~ 877,865
203,659
1,081;524 --
1,081,524
100
1941
845,273
100,519
945,792 --
945,792
87
1942
693,6
70,480
764,366 --
764,366
71
1943
392,490
105,973
498,463 --
498,463
46
Av
g 702,378
120,158
822,536 --
822,536
76
NO_"E~ Manchukuo source= useda
Of the amount bought by the control corporation, the larger part .went to
manufacture sauces ~ic7 and other uses, leaving only about 120,000 metric tons
for flour In 1943, the supply of 180,000 metric tons of flour (100,000 metric
tons manufactured, 80,000 imported) was not 24 percent of that under free econ-
omy
Exports of Unprocessed and Processed Products
(In metric tons)
Year
Unprocessed
Mash
Subtotal
Oils
Total
1912
760,000
640,000
1,400,000
40,000
1,440,000
1931
3,760,000
l,goo,oo0
5,660,000
187;000
5,847,000
1g43
1,630,000
590,000
2,220,000
7,000
2,227,000
NOi~ES; 1, Sources are North Ohina and Manchukuo published statistics
2. Before 1939, only beans, bean mash and bean oil are reported; after
that date, other products are i.ncl.udede
3~ Before 1939, unit is calendar year; thereafter, October 1 to Septem-
ber 300
It is noteworthy that a peak in the annual figures was reached in 1931?
Before that time there was a fairly continuous rise in quantities; after that
a decl.ire until 1943, when exports were less than half of thoae in the peak
yearn
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Exports of Beans and Dean Product:
(In metric tones)
year
Beans
Bean Cakes
Subtotal
Bean 011
Total
1912
550,000
640,000
1,190,000
40,000
1,230,000
1931
2,840,000
1,900,000
4,740,000
187,000
4,927,000
1843
78o,ooa
580,000
1,360,000
lo,oo0
1,270,000
Destination of Bean Exports
(In thousand. metric tons)
l9~
1939
19!+3
Germany
Britain
France
351
253
212
100
--
--
--
--
--
Holland
6
--
--
Italy
~ 27
--
--
Denmark
None
--
--
Norway
None
--
--
Egypt
340
-_
__.
USSR
76
--
--
subtotal
1,265
100
--
East Asia
917
605
780
Total
2,182
705
780
Exports of bean cakes and bean oil to other countries, including the US,
show a similar decline in the decade 1934 - 1943 Broadly speaking, of the
total imports of beans by European countries, exclusive of the USSR, during
193LL _ 1938, about half came from Manchukuoe
Of the beans, 444 percent, and of the bean-oil, 26x4 percent, was car-
ried in British ships, 23,.5 percent of the beans, and 49 percent of the bean
oil, in German bottoms Nert in share of t?he total business, came Norway fol-
lowed by Denmark, Greece and Japan
From 1931 to 1943, US production of soybeans increased very rapidly, Prom
455,400 tons to 4,975,487 tons.. This offered serious competition to Manchuria
in world markets, Manchuria must improve and diversify its processing of soy-
beans if' she is to maintain her competitive position
Other 011 Seeda and Their Products
Statistics as to the exports of other oil seeds and products are very
meagero The following 1943 data will give a general idea (in thousand metric
tons): .
S E E D S
Perilla Hemp Peanut Castor Seeamum Cotton Subtotal
~7 33 1 3 Little None 64
0 T L S
Perilla Other Mash Total
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In total exports, of grains, the peak year xas 1926, with a record of
1,705,000 metric tons It is to be noted that the export of wheat reached its
height in 1920 with 875,000 metric tons After that, the proportion of wheat
among exported grains diminished, vanishing altogether in 1939
In 1943, grain exports went to the following places (in metric tons):
Japan
227,000
Korea
293,000
China
274,000
Total
794,000
Future of Supply and Demand oP Manchurian Farm Products
The demand for food and feed in Manchukuo is very hard to calculated It
is estimated that in 1945 consumption of grains and oils in the rural areas
would be at leas+. 10 million metric tons, and in urban areas, 4 million metric
tons, totaling a minimum of 14 million metric tone for domestic consumption,
In the 5 years, 191+0-b>l, total farm production averaged 18,750,000 tons
Reducing this figure by about 20 percent because of troubled conditions, we
get a production figure of 13,100,000 to 15,000,000 tons f'or i94~:;~~
Taking 15 million as production and 14 million as consumption, we find
that in beans and oils, the supply exceeds demand with a surplus for export;
but in edible grains, demand exceeds supply, thus requiring imported If a
production figure of 13 million tons is assumed, the deficit will be still
larger Due to the repatriation of Korean and Japanese farmers and the
shortage of tools and fertilizers, it will be difficult to augment the rice
supplyo Therefore, at present there may be some beans for export, but grains
will remain insufficient,
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GORFIDENTIAL
In Manchurian farming, r_rop rotation is fundamental; otherwise, there is
sn imbalance between supply and prices, as between grains and beans, Sudden
neglect of crop rotation should be avoided in order not to upset the marketo
As to increasing output, the most improved methods should be used, and a
goal of 17,000,000 tons should be establishedo
50X1-HUM
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