THIS MORNING YOU MENTIONED TO ME YOUR UNHAPPINESS WITH THE CANNON-WOODWARD COLUMN IN THE POST AN LAXALT'S TRIP TO THE PHILIPPINES.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580023-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2012
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: October 15, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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&7
Reagan to Warn
Marcos on Peril
Of Overthrow
By Lou Cannon and Bob Woodward
rr. w tieo Pc t sear WflS .
President Reagan has sent his
dose friend Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-
Nev.) to we Philippine President
Ferdinand E. Marcos. bearing what
one administration official called "an
extremely blunt message of wara-
ing" that the Marcos regime is in
danger of being-overthrown.
The agkial said thfit aseesemeata
security
-
Dint to the oten
m wt two vote Ub.
tmilitary ales, ecommg es ad-
Phil-
the recara position
ippines, o s said.
country we
a to
or costa
u
Director William
asey
a
nations security a -
Fairs~v
C. McFarlane
aye
? to the president
ministration7s Fair unless Marcos
takes Hjifiediste ps combat a
communist msur en .
One dficial called a message
that Laxalt is carrying "the bluntest
presidential message ever delivered
to a friend." He said that Marcos
would be told that he was "screwing
up the fight against the insurgency"
and that his government was too
preoccupied with financial gain and
domestic politics rather than com-
bating the increasingly powerful
New People's Army.
Laxalt is expected to give Reagan
a franc assessment on the mood and
capacity of the 68-year-old Marcos,
who was elected president in 1965
and has remained in office since, in-
cluding. a 10-year period during
which he ruled by martial law. Ad-
ministration officials said that the
question of whether the United
States should back an alternative to
Marcos had been "discussed within
the government" but not resolved.
Among countries in which U.S.
, security interests ran e the
Philippines were- t ee rot the
quarterly CIA watch Report as the
,
WASHINGTON POST
15 October 1985
They said that the warning of
U.S. officials was underscored last
week by Singapore Prime Minister
Lee Kuan Yew, an ally of the United
States, in a meeting with Reagan at
the White House.
In an interview with The Wash-
ington Post during his visit here
Lee called the Philippines "a source
for anxiety," said "the population is
in distress" and predicted- that the
insurgents will grow "quite a- bit
stronger" if economic problems are
not resolved.
The White House announced the
Laxalt mission yesterday after The
Washington Times published an ar-
ticle about the trip.
"Sen. Laxalt is undertaking a visit
to the Philippines, an ally of long
standing at the personal request of
the president," said Michael Guest,
an assistant White House press sec-
retary. "He departed Saturday as a
close personal friend of President
Reagan. He will , meet with Presi-
dent Marcos."
Laxalt, general chairman of the
Republican Party and chairman of
three Reagan presidential cam-
paigns, announced on Aug. 19 that
he would not seek a third term and'
told Reagan he would be available
for sensitive trouble-shooting as-
signments. Some conservatives
think that a successful performance
by -Laxalt in this role would help
make him a vice-presidential con-
tender in 1988. But the thrust of
Laxalt's trip was primarily policy-
oriented.
Casey, who met with Philippine
of ices s m am a for, three days
t May and reportedly urge Mar-
cos to hold immediate presidential beet warning o
coon t regime is in
gel a t e agency, sources sal . t
r of reassessment
?o
head of the CIA's East Agra drvioau.
urdy
LiSt wee F. e- ? TNWvW
( . , a mem er o t to Dose
1me u and
committees, as that t
t erase Intelligence Agency
had warned that present trends in
the Philippines are "really down-
ward and very negative" and headed
for "catastrophe."
At stake is the security of Clark
Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base,
the two biggest U.S. military instal-
lations outside the United States.
The United States has lease of the
bases until 1991, but Assistant Sec-
retary of Defense Richard L. Armi-
tage said that "we are seriously
looking at alternatives" because of
the instability of the government.
The potential loss of these bases is
of concern' because of Soviet naval
presence at Cam Ranh Bay in Viet-
nam, once an important U.S. base.
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inTVU; a?
ON PAGE p 9:?
U.S SENDS LAXALT
TO TALK TO MARCOS
By BERNARD WEINRAUs
ft"M0noMwYwtt
WASHD4GTON, OM 14 - President
Reagan has sen t Senator Paul Laalt
the Philippines to discuss the wor
ing military, political and econamic
situation there, Administration offh
cials said todll%.
Offrdar said Mr. Lash, one of Mr.
Reagan's closest friends, would
E.
ably meet President Ferdinand
Marcos in the next two days.
Officials said Dir. Lax alt, a cmewf&
tive Nevada Republican, was
a message to Mr. Marcos from NOW.
dent Reagan. They declined to divulp
details of the message but said Mr.
Reagan wanted to "eaprees his emp.
corn" about the situation in the
pines. Philip.
Potentially Major Crisis Sees
Privately, White House, State De.
partment and Pentagon officials have
viewed the Philippine situation as a
potential crisis for the United States. In
sending Mr. Laxalt to- Manila, Mr. Rea
gan took his most aggressive step so
far in putting pressure on the Marcos
Government for changes that the
United States views as crucial to its
stability.
The Laxalt trip comes at a poten-
tially critical moment for United
States-Philippine relations. The De.,
fense Department plans to invest about
$1.3 billion in Clark Air Base and Subic
was seeking an overhaul of the military
and a curbing of corruption and favorit-
ism, which are hurting the campaign
against the rebels.
A second issue that especially con-
cerns Mr. Reagan and the Administra-
tion, officials said, is Mr. Marcos's re-
fusal so far to make economic changes'
to curb corruption.
Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger said
American military bases in the Phil*
pines were poorly protected and vul-
nerable to a terrorist attack.
Officials said the basis for Mr. Rea-
gan's anxiety about the Philippines
was the growing Communist insur-
gency there and fears that the Phi-
lippine military was not meeting the
challenge. They said the United States
NEW YORK TIMES
15 October 1985
Officials indicated that Mr. Laxalt: Administration officials believe that
would point out that two of the major , General Ver will be acquitted and are
controlled by friends of Mr. Marcos.
Mr. Marco's promise to reorganize
these industries is regarded as cos-
metic and not as sweeping as the Ad-
ministration had sought.,
will reappoint him to his former power.
ful position in the armed forces.
As a result of the Aquino assassina-
tion, President Reagan canceled a visit
to the Philippines.
"Corruption has been carried to such The Declining Economy
a degree there that parts of the ecbn- In presenting the President's met.
omy don't function," an Administra- sage to Mr. Marcos, Senator Laxalt
tion aide said. will tell the Philippine leader that the
The White House confirmed Mr. Lax worsening economic and mill.
alts trip after a report was published tart' situation was abetting the Com-
today about it in The Washington munist rebellion and driving moder-
Times. The White House declined to . ates into the hands of extremists, of1-
dispuss details of the trip. dais said.
'An Ally of Loos Standing' Especially worrisome to American
Michael Guest, a spokesman, said, officials is the declining "Senator Paul Laxalt is undertaking a which, they say, contributes die.
visit to the Philippines, an ally of long ? illusion amens the middle class and the
insurgency.
standing, at the personal request of the the
"He departed Washington Saturday shrank 5.Philippine 3 percent et', which
as a close personal friend of President' petted to contract by anotherpercent.,
Reagan," Mr. Guest said. "He will age point this year. One key reason for
meet with President Ferdinand Mar. the decline, officials said, was the per.,
cos while he is in Manila." .. asive corruption and the failure by
Officials said they believed that Mr. vMr. Marcos to generate economic
Laxalt would spent four days in the changes.
Philippines.
MrLaxalt is apparently Mr. Rea- Mr. Reagan has taken an active in.
gas's first emissary sent specifically to i interview the Philippines. He said in an
inteervia ew last February that it would
indicated that the trip, apparently
aboard a military aircraft, was sup-
posed to have been secret.
One element of Mr. Laxalt's mission,
officials indicated, was to discuss polit-
ical changes. This would involve a fair
presidential election and the develop.
ment of an election process that would
be, according to one official, "clean
and open
Health of Marcos
In early August Mr. Marcos said he
was seriously considering calling a
presidential election this year, but
later that month he appeared to drop
plans for. a ballot in 1985. The next
scheduled presidential election is in
1987.
The health of the 8&year-old Presi-
dent, and his succession, have been of
special concern to the Reagan Admin.
istration as the Communist insurgency
and the political instability in the
Philippines grow. Mr. Marcos appar-
ently suffers from a degenerative kid-
ney disease, and his condition swings in
cycles. Lately he has appeared to be
physically strong.
An additional Administration con.
cern that may be voiced by Mr. Laxalt,
officials said, is Mr. Marco's insist.
ence that he will return Gen. Fabian C.
Ver, a close associate and cousin, to his
post as chief of the armed forces. Gen-
eral Ver has been implicated by a citi-
zens' court in the killing of the opppsi-
tion leader Benigno S. Amino Jr, in
1983.
The planned upgrading of Clark
tense intellizence Agency that the
that 20 ft in the PhIli
were -01g= downward and X= =
tive," Representative
Democrat of a, said last week.
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ARTICLE,
ON PAGE
Upgrading sit
At U.S. Bases
In Philippines
But Agencies Warn
Ojlnsurgency Peril
By David B. Ottaway
WrAhmgton Post Staff Writer
'le Defense Department plans
to vest 1.3 billion to upgrade
r Base and u is ay naval
~; in the communist-threatened
Philippines despite the conclusions
of two IT S . in i ence agencies
that ; t e overnment o President
er nan Marcos is headed for
''ca stro ee..
Wary of the growing threat from
Filipino guerrillas, however, the
Pentagon has begun to look for al-
ternative Pacific sites in what could
be an $8 billion relocation of the
two biggest U.S. bases outside the
United States, according to a high-
rankfng Pentagon official.
The Central Intelli ence A ency
and .t e e ense me ence cy recent told the House me i-
geence and Armed Services commit-
tees in secret briefings that present
trends in the Phi ippines are "really
downward and very ne ative" and
heading for "catastrophe." Rep.
ber of both panels, said Yesterday.
"The intelligence community is
so fir out ahead of the policy-mak-
ers that it's incredible, McCurdy
added.
Reacting to a recent Senate re-
port questioning the wisdom of a
large new U.S. military investment
in the, Philippines, Assistant Secre-
tary of Defense Richard L. Armi-
tage said in an interview that "the
facts as we see them are that we
will be at those facilities at least
until 1991."
After, that, Armitage added, "it
gets problematical .... We are
looking 'seriously at alternatives."
The potential loss of the 83-year-
old bases-and their potential con-
WASHINGTON POST
10 October 1985
version into Soviet facilities-is
particularly worrisome to the Pen-
tagon because of the large Soviet
naval presence at Cam Ranh Bay in
Vietnam, once a major U.S. base.
Among the alternatives under
consideration, Armitage said, are
Guam, which lies 1,500 miles east
of the Philippines, and Tinian, an
island in the northern Marianas,
where the United States has al-
ready leased more than 18,000
acres.
Both are regarded as poor op-
tions, however, because of their
loc#tion, lack of development and
manpower shortages. Also, Armi-
tal& said replacement costs could
People's Army (NPA) has
spread virtually throughout the
Philippines. The movement con-
tends it receives no help from the
'Soviet Union or other communist-
bloc nations; demands for removal
.of the U.S. bases are heard not only
from the NPA but also from non
'communist opposition elements in
parliafient, where a 17-member
committee is studying the issue.
Several ministers in the Marcos
,government have also called for
abrogation of the military bases
'agreement with Washington; the
agreement comes up for review in
19 9 and for possible renegotiation
in 1091. But these semiofficial re-
gwect& may be linked to a govern-
n" maneuver to obtain more than
t1w$900 million the United States
now provides to the Philippines in
ecoifomic and military aid over a
fiile3ear period ending in 1989,
according to congressional and ad-
ministration sources.
A Soviet military presence in the
Philippines could result in "a basic
reversal of the strategic balance" in
the region, Armitage said. Navy
Secretary John F. Lehman Jr.
echoed that sentiment in a recent
interview, saying it "would be a hor-
rendous situation were the Soviets
able to operate out of the Philip-
pines."
Armitage, the Pentagon's top
Asia expert, said there was a "slight
possibility" of looking for alterna-
tive U.S. bases closer to the Asian
mainland to counter Cam Ranh Bay,
where Moscow now has its largest
base outside the Soviet Union.
However, the Pentagon has no
"as much as $8 billion."
communist insurgency led by
plans to approach any potential host
governments in the Pacific region
to ask for facilities, he added.
Armitage specifically denied that
the Pentagon was considering Sin-
gapore as an alternative to Subic
Bay, saying it was too crowded and
short on storage facilities. There
have been unconfirmed reports
here that the United States is in-
terested in the former British base
at Woodlands in Singapore.
The mounting problems for the
United States in continuing to de-
pend on its two facilities in the Phil-
ippines were vividly brought home
in a r$ept. 9 report written by the
minority staff of the Senate Armed
Services subcommittee on military
construction.
The report, based on a visit in
late August, found serious security
breaches at both bases, including no
sign of Filipino guards, empty guard
towers and only seven miles of the
26-mile outer perimeter fence still
standing at Clark. At Subic Bay, the
subcommittee staff learned that an
armed NPA squad had recently
camped inside the perimeter of the
naval base, only a mile from a U.S.
ammunition magazine.
"Although the magazine is se-
cured with the proper security fenc-
ing and guarded by U.S. Marines,
the fact the NPA can actually op-
erate inside the perimeter guarded
by the Philippine military is nothing
short of incredible," the report said.
At both Clark and Subic Bay, the
Philippine government has respon-
sibility for securing the perimeters,
and the United States protects the
installations inside.
Armitage acknowledged "some
real holes" in security arrange-
ments and noted that Clark is lo-
cated in a traditional home base
area for the communists. The Sen-
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ate report provided "some more
momentum" to discussions already
under way between the Defense
Department and the Philippines
government aboitt improving secu-
rity, he added.
Both Armitage and the subcom-
mittee staff appeared to agree that
the NPA would never be strong
enough to actually occupy either
base and had adopted a policy of
avoiding attacks either on U.S. fa-
cilities or individual Americans. But
the report' said the communists
could shift tactics "overnight" and
destroy important, costly U.S. mil-
itary equipment.
Armitage agreed that the NPA
could attack the bases "any time"
but doubted it would do so. U.S.
military "flying squads" have been
set up as a precaution to intercept
intruders, he said.
The Senate report urged the
Pentagon to delay its plan to spend
$1.3 billion for upgraded housing,
runways and other facilities "until
greater certainty is established that
the United States will continue to
be a welcome guest."
But Armitage said he had not
changed his "risk assessment" of
last spring that the military strug-
gle between the Marcos govern-
ment and the NPA could end in a
stalemate on the battlefield "in
three to five years time" if present
trends continue.
"I would state that the trend in
the Philippines is still deteriorat-
ing," although at "a slightly lower
rate" in recent months, he said.
He attributed this partly to "ru-
dimentary improvements" in the
performance of the Philippine
armed forces and partly to spread-
ing disenchantment with the NPA
among a pro-American Filipino pop-
ulation.
"It has more to do with the fact
that a very westward-leaning, U.S.-
oriented population, which gener-
ally shares our values, is getting the
word that maybe the NPA is not the
nice people," he added. "Once they
consolidate control and they have
their apparatus in place, things be-
come a little more draconian."
Staff writer George C. Wilson
contributed to this report
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ARTICLE AP,
ON PAGE
WASHINGTON TIMES
14 October 1985
Reagan sends Laxalt to Manila
with message
ByEr Fontaine
rot. TIMES
President Reagan has sent a spe-
cial personal emissary with a pri-
vate message for Philippine
President Ferdinand E. Marcos,
administration sources have told
The Washington Times.
In so doing, the United States is
stepping up its demonstration of
concern for the future of the Phil-
ippines, which is experiencing its
most serious internal unrest since
the end of World War II.
The president's message will
apparently be a frank assessment of
the political trouble Mr. Marcos
finds himself in and what that
implies for United States' interests
in the Philippines.
The emissary, Sen. Paul Laxalt, a
Nevada Republican and a longtime
close associate of the president, is
going at the personal request of Mr.
Reagan, the same sources said. Mr.
Laxalt has performed similar mis-
sions in the past, most notably when
he was sent to Taiwan in April 1984
on the eve of President Reagan's trip
to the People's Republic of China.
The meeting with the Filipino
leader is scheduled for Wednesday.
Mr. Laxalt left for Manila from
Andrews Air Force Base early Sat-
urday.
Mr. Laxalt is scheduled to arrive
in the Philippines today after a stop
in Hawaii for talks with the U.S.
Commander in the Pacific, Adm.
James A. Lyons. He returns to Wash-
ington Thursday night.
The trip, which is expected to be
announced today at the White
House, culminates a lengthy period
of assessment within the adminis-
tration over Mr. Marcos' prospects
in an increasingly turbulent Philip-
pines.
The exact content of the
president's message was not
revealed by the sources, but the
meeting is expected to produce a
frank discussion of Mr. Marcos'
political troubles. Such a trip has.
been discussed for some time inside
the administration, with some offi-
cials believing such a message is
"overdue" because it is felt the Phil-
ippine president "is screwing things
up.
that any speelC demands will be
made or penalties attached if they
are not met.
But one indication of that rising
concern is that although the pres-
ident has written letters to Mr. Mar-
cos before, Mr. Laxalt is the
administration's first presidential
emissary specifically sent to talk
with the Philippine leader.
Earlier reports that William P
Clark, a former national security
adviser, and another close political
associate of Mr. Reagan, had gave to
the Philippines on a similar million
were.brandsla false by the same
to ge a rash assessment of th
threat
tJp subsequ ntly met _
with Mr. Marcos to discuss the new
threat estimate, while news reports
t the time said Mr. Casey also urggg
th,pinprPaident to hold imme-
diate oresidenn_t elections.
Although administration sources
will not reveal whether any similar
x'equest will be made this titre, the
Laxalt frig evidently is meant to be
a stronger signal of increasing U.S.
worry, and the personal concern of
Mr. Reagan, himself. The impor-
tance that the White House attaches
to this visit is also underlined by the
fact that Mr. Laxalt has no other
planned meetings on his four-day
stay in the Philippines.
The timing of the visit, these
sources stressed. was not keyed td
any one recent event, nor is it felt
here that W. Marcos' troubles now
are any greater than two months
ago. But the Laxalt visit is a lea
indication that a turning point
been reached in the Philippines, put-
ting at risk huge U.S. interests in that
archipelago.
Those interests have steadily
accumulated since the islands were
wrested from Spanish control at the
end of the last century. Today they
include economic investments of S3
billion and key military facilities,
Clark Air Base and Subic Naval
Base, the principal American naval
base in the Far East. They help pro-
tect vital sea lanes from a growing
Soviet naval presence in the region
staged from bases stretching from
Vladivistok in the Soviet Union in
the north, and Danang and Cam
Ranh Bay in Vietnam to the south.
In congressional testimony ear-
lier this year, the U.S. bases were
described as "essential" by Richard
L. Armitage, the Pentagon's assis-
tant secretary of defense for inter
national samtrity affairs.
The Reman administration has
also made a major effort to convince
a skeptical Congress that substan-
tially increased military aid is
needed if the Marcos government is
to stem the growing threat posed by
the NPA, which has grown to 12,000
men in the last few years. NPA com-
manders euphorically predict an
army of 60,000 in two more years,
and threaten attacks on metropoli-
tan Manila in the very near future.
Until. very recently, the Reagan
administration has shown more con-
cern - at least publicly - about the
NM threat than Mr. Marcos has
despite the Philippine president's
recent hint that he may request the
assistance of U.S. troops to help end
the NPA insurrection.
Mr. Marcos, 67, who was first
elected president in November 1965,
has stayed in office since then, rul-
ing through martial law from 1972
until 1981. Recently, he has been
besieged by his political opponents
in a campaign that picked up steam
after the murder of opposition
leader Benigno Aquino. The opposi-
tion has charged the killing was car-
ried out by the Philippine army upon
Mr. Aquino's return from exile two
years ago.
Despite that opposition, Mr. Mar-
cos has already announced his plans
to run for president in the 1987 elec-
tions, and has also hinted lately of an
earlier, snap election - a possibility
provided under the new constitu-
tion.
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