TERRORISM REVIEW(SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85-01095R000100160002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 30
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of
Intelligence
MASTER FILE COSY
CO No!` T G i6'E BUT OR MARK ON
Terrorism Review
Cvapvit--
GI TR 84-023
1 November 1984
Copy 4 91
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Terrorism Review I
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Highlights
Anti-US Terrorism So Far in 1984
13 The Current Terrorist Threat Against the United States
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19 Syria and the Shia Extremists in Lebanon
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29 Chronology of Terrorism-1984
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Indictments Handed Down in Papal Case
On 26 October in Rome, Investigating Magistrate Ilario Martella announced his
decision to indict three Bulgarians and four Turks on charges of complicity in the
1981 attempt to kill Pope John Paul II. Mehmet Ali Agca, currently serving a life
sentence for the shooting, will stand trial on a new charge of illegally importing the
weapon he used. The deposition reportedly disclosed that ballistic tests and an
examination of the trajectory of the shots indicated that a third bullet-which has
never been found-was fired, and accused alleged Turkish coconspirator Oral
Celik, currently at large, of being the second gunman. No trial date has been set. 25X1
according to the Italian news agency ANSA, a number
bombing.
of former SISMI officials have been arrested for various alleged misdeeds; some
are also under investigation in connection with the 1980 Bologna railroad station
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FP-25 Members Face Trial But Group Goes on Bombing
On 15 October the Lisbon prosecutor's office charged 78 people, including Otelo
Saraiva de Carvalho, a hero of the 1974 Portuguese Revolution, with membership
in the terrorist group Popular Forces of 25 April (FP-25). Fifty of those charged
were already in prison, and all but Carvalho and one other had been on a hunger
strike protesting their close confinement. With the conclusion of the judicial
preliminaries, the prisoners were transferred to the normal prison regime,
whereupon the hunger strikers declared victory and began eating again. The trials
will not begin for at least four months, to allow the defendants time to prepare.
On the same day, FP-25 members remaining at large tried to bomb five French-
owned business facilities-four banks and an insurance agency-claiming
solidarity with the Spanish Basque separatist terrorists. Only two of the bombs
exploded (they were made of old dynamite), and police believe them to be the work
of second-stringers just trying to demonstrate that FP-25 remains operational.7
reported a car bomb attack against the Embassy.
RPG Attack Against US Embassy Misfires
On 29 October in Lisbon, two rocket-propelled grenades (bazooka rounds)
mounted on an improvised laucher and aimed at the new US Embassy were
discovered by children playing in a nearby vacant lot. The device had misfired,
owing to a malfunction in the electrical detonating system. No one claimed credit
for the aborted attack, although FP-25 may have been responsible. Two days
earlier, a telephone caller representing himself as a member of FP-25 had falsely
Libyan diplomatic interests in Europe.
Bombs Defused at Libyan People's Bureau
In Nicosia, police defused two explosive devices found at the Libyan Cultural
Center and People's Bureau. Each bomb consisted of two 15-kilogram gas
cylinders sandwiched around 1 kilogram of explosives. Although no group claimed
responsibility, the devices may have been planted by the Musa Sadr Brigade, a
terrorist splinter of the Lebanese Shia group Amal that blames Libya for the
disappearance of its religious leader in 1978 and that has previously attacked
West African Coast Polisario Turns to Piracy
Off the coast of Western Sahara, armed men operating from one or more assault
rafts have attacked commercial shipping and fishing vessels in four separate raids
beginning in late September. So far, a Togolese cargo ship, two Moroccan fishing
trawlers, and an oceangoing tug of unidentified registry have been struck by
rocket-grenade and small-arms fire. One of the Moroccan trawlers was set afire,
and seven of its Portuguese crewmen were injured; the other three vessels
apparently suffered only minor damage and no casualties. The attackers were
probably members of Polisario, the anti-Moroccan Western Saharan liberation
movement. The raids may have been timed to coincide with the major land
offensive Polisario launched in Western Sahara on 13 October.
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Captive Priests Released Unharmed
On 19 October in Mayom, the three priests captured by the insurgent group Anya
Nya II on 4 September were released unharmed. The American, British, and
Sudanese clergymen said that the disorganized rebel band that had originally
captured them, during an attack on the town of Bentiu, decided to free them five
days later, but, before it could do so, it was intercepted by a larger force, which
took over custody of the priests and tried unsuccessfully to extract a ransom from
the Sudanese Government and Catholic Church.F_-]
from the north toward the capital.
Capital Racked by 10 Tamil Terrorist Bombs
On the morning of 22 October in Colombo, 10 explosions killed three persons and
wounded 11 others. Three additional bombs were found by Army bomb disposal
units. The targets included railway stations, road junctions, and residential areas.
One bomb went off near an art gallery where President Jayewardene was
scheduled to appear that evening and a second detonated near the home of a
staunch anti-Tamil government minister. The bombs were placed by Tamil
separatist terrorists who were hoping to draw government security forces back
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Anti-US Terrorism
So Far in 1984
With three-quarters of the year now over, our data
suggest that the number of significant anti-American
terrorist attacks in 1984 will remain roughly equal to
the level experienced in the previous three years.' No
large-scale anti-US terrorist campaign has
materialized, either worldwide or within a particular
Nevertheless, the continuation of the trend
There were about 75 significant attacks against US
citizens or property in each of the last three years. So
far in 1984, 61 anti-US attacks have occurred.
Bombings continued to be the predominant form of
attack, the most spectacular being the 20 September
suicide vehicle bombing of the US Embassy Annex in
East Beirut (table 1). Armed attacks and kidnapings
have become more frequent in 1984, however,
contributing to a US casualty rate that on an annual
basis exceeds our annual losses in the years prior to
1983, when a tragic record in US terrorist casualties
was set as the result of the two vehicle bombing
attacks in Beirut that killed 267 US citizens and
wounded 105.
We have identified no fewer than 25 groups as having
been responsible for 51 of the 61 significant anti-US
incidents that occurred so far this year. (We do not
know who committed the other 10 attacks.) The fact
that so many groups attack US targets is one major
reason it is so hard for the United States to reduce the
terrorist threat to its interests. Counterterrorist
successes in one nation-or even throughout one
' Significant attacks include all those that caused-or were
designed to cause-casualties; kidnapings and barricade situations
where hostages were taken; terrorist hijackings and skyjackings;
and robberies, sabotage, armed attacks, arson, and bombings that
caused-or were designed to cause-$10,000 or more in losses or
property damage
region-will only slightly reduce the overall incidence
of anti-US attacks. Moreover, political violence is
endemic in many parts of the Third World, and the
presence in almost every country of American citizens
and property creates readily available targets for
terrorists. The frequently close association between
the US Government and local regimes, as well as
between US business interests and the established
economic order, make US targets a logical choice for
insurgents or terrorists seeking to destroy the status
quo.
The Regional Breakdown
Although the frequency of significant anti-US attacks
has remained basically constant, the geographic
distribution has changed dramatically.
In the Middle East-by far the most dangerous
region for the United States-significant attacks
jumped from four in 1982 to 14 in 1983. In the first
nine months of this year, there have already been 13
serious attacks in the Middle East. Since terrorism in
the Middle East has been more lethal than in other
regions, it is not surprising that the increasing number
of anti-US attacks there has been accompanied by a
lengthening list of US casualties.
The increased terrorism against US interests in the
region was almost entirely the work of opponents of
US policies in Lebanon. Ten of the 13 Middle Eastern
incidents occurred in Lebanon; all, we believe, were
committed by Shia extremists supported by Iran.
Four of the incidents were kidnapings; three of the
four victims-a US Embassy officer and three private
US citizens-are still being held. Two of the incidents
in Lebanon were assassination attempts; one resulted
in the death of the president of the American
University of Beirut. The three incidents that
occurred outside Lebanon all took place in Jordan.
the Syrian-backed Abu Nidal
Group may have been responsible for all of them.
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Secret
GI TR 84-023
1 November 1984
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Table 1
Significant Terrorist Attacks on US Targets,
January-September 1984
Shootings Bombings Kidnapings Sabotage/Arson
Worldwide 61 16 29 10 6 10 killed
27 wounded
15 kidnaped
Europe 7 3 2 2 1 killed
Table 2
Types of US Targets Attacked,a
January-September 1984
4 killed
23 wounded
4 kidnaped
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In Western Europe, in contrast to the Middle East,
anti-American terrorism is in the third year of a
steady decline-43 significant attacks were recorded
in 1982, 26 in 1983, and only seven so far in 1984.
Most of the attacks on US interests in Western
Europe in recent years have been conducted by small,
autonomous groups of leftists interested mainly in
scoring propaganda victories by setting off homemade
bombs. The decline in the number of such attacks is
due in part to some counterterrorist successes by the
authorities in West Germany and Italy, where many
of the anti-US attacks were previously occurring.
Moreover, some terrorist groups redirected their
efforts against other than US targets. It is also true,
however, that terrorism of this sort tends to occur in
waves, and we may simply be in a statistical trough.
Despite the generally successful counterterrorist
effort by West European governments, three
assassination attempts in 1984 indicated that several
hardcore, dedicated terrorist groups retain a
capability to make lethal attacks on Americans. In
February, Leamon R. Hunt, the US civilian head of
the Sinai Multinational Force and Observers, was
murdered in Rome by an element of the Red
Brigades. In March, the US Consul in Strasbourg was
wounded by a gunman; the Lebanese Armed
Revolutionary Faction-a shadowy group that has
primarily targeted Americans in recent years-
claimed credit. In April, a US Air Force sergeant was
seriously wounded in Greece by the Revolutionary
Organization of 17 November. Although few in
number, such attacks demonstrate that the United
States continues to face a serious terrorist threat in
Western Europe.
In South America, significant terrorist attacks
against Americans in 1984 have increased in
frequency but-in contrast to the Middle East and
Western Europe-not in lethality. Most of the attacks
this year were bombings conducted late at night by
insurgent groups against facilities of US business
firms and, secondarily, against US diplomatic
installations. In Colombia, eight attacks against US
targets have been conducted by the Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) so far this year,
more than by any other insurgent group in the world.
Table 3
Leading Victims of Signficant
International Terrorist Incidents,
January-September 1984
a Attacks against Israeli military forces and installations in south-
ern Lebanon and the occupied territories are not included.
b Attacks against Soviet military forces and installations in Afghan-
istan are not included. Data concerning attacks by Afghan rebels
against Soviet civilian targets in Afghanistan are believed to be
incomplete.
Another Colombian group, the Army of National
Liberation (ELN), attacked US corporate targets four
times. In Chile, six bombings of property owned by
private US citizens in 1984 were part of a wave of
terrorist violence by several groups opposed to the
current Chilean regime. Almost all of the rest of the
incidents took place in Peru, where the Maoist
Sendero Luminoso has attacked US targets three
times so far this year, and a previously unknown
group, the Revolutionary Movement Tupac Amaru,
strafed the US Embassy and attacked the offices of
both AP and UPI last September.
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In Central America, anti-US terrorism remained at a 25X1
low ebb, despite reports that various insurgent groups
continue to plot attacks. Two American civilians were
killed in Central America this year, but they were not
the intended victims. Instead, they got caught in
terrorist attacks directed against local targets-an
ambush of a bus in January by insurgents in El
Salvador, and the bombing of a press conference held
by anti-Sandinista leader Eden Pastora in Nicaragua
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in May. A rightwing group in Guatemala was
responsible for the kidnaping of a Peace Corps
volunteer in August. The low number of attacks in
1984 in part reflects the success a number of Central
American nations have had in combating insurgents.
It is also apparent, however, that most Central
American insurgent groups are currently disinclined
to attack US targets. The guerrillas in El Salvador,
for example, have chosen to focus on domestic targets,
rather than to undertake a terrorist campaign against
In the rest of the world, Americans continue to be
only occasional targets-more frequently, incidental
victims-of politically motivated violence. Three
incidents involving US citizens occurred in southern
Sudan where dissidents are attempting to drive
Westerners out of the country to undermine Sudan's
economy and weaken the Nimieri regime. Three
attacks took place in southern Africa, including a
bombing by SWAPO in Namibia in which two US
officials were killed, and a kidnaping by UNITA in
Angola in which five Americans were captured along
with a number of other foreigners. The Tamil
insurgents in Sri Lanka conducted their first anti-US
attack in May when they kidnaped two US AID
workers. They later released the hostages unransomed
and unharmed.
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The Current Terrorist Threat
Against the United States
We believe there is a continuing threat of serious
incidents of anti-American terrorism during the next
few months:
?I a
number of terrorist groups with established
capabilities are contemplating specific terrorist
actions against US citizens and facilities-
particularly in Lebanon.
? The latest Beirut suicide bombing signals Iran's
continuing willingness to use terrorism to attempt to
force the United States out of Lebanon and serves
as well as a powerful example and possible incentive
to users of terrorism in other countries.
? The US Presidential election offers an inviting
opportunity for terrorist groups to try to influence
the campaign and perhaps even the voting results, as
Iran attempted to do through the hostage crisis four
years ago.
Any worsening of anti-US terrorism would most likely
come in the form of higher casualties rather than
more attacks. Actually, about the same number of
terrorist attacks against US persons and facilities
around the world occurred during the first nine
months of this year as occurred during the
comparable periods of the past several years.
Increasingly, however, the terrorist weapon of choice
has been the large bomb-including the vehicle
bomb-especially in the Middle East, and in view of
the "success" of this tactic, more of the same can be
expected. Although diplomatic and military personnel
and property would be the most likely targets, many
Middle Eastern and European terrorist groups have
shown a growing willingness to attack educators,
businessmen, and other nonofficial targets.
The Middle East
Terrorist attacks producing very high casualties are
most likely in the Middle East. Numerous
experienced terrorist groups in the region have
demonstrated the will and ability to attack US
persons and facilities, either at their own discretion or
at the behest of some state patron. Many of these
groups possess extensive support networks among the
indigenous populations and can count as well on help
from collaborating states like Iran, Syria, and Libya.
The most serious threats continue to come from
Iranian-inspired groups operating under the nom de
guerre of Islamic Jihad-in some cases possibly
supported by Palestinian groups such as the PFLP-
General Command or by the Iranian Pasdaran
(Revolutionary Guard). Among these groups the
radical Shias in Lebanon have done the most damage
to US targets in the past two years. Dedicated to 25X1
eliminating the US presence in Lebanon and willing
to sacrifice the lives of their members to accomplish
this goal, they were responsible, we believe, for the
three major terrorist attacks against US facilities in
Beirut. Iran has provided religious indoctrination,
military training, and material support to Shia
sympathizers from many parts of the Middle East.
This support has enabled them to conduct successful,
sophisticated terrorist operations, particularly in the
chaotic atmosphere of Lebanon.
Although threatening statements issued in the name
of Islamic Jihad have preceded some attacks, many
other threats-or reports of plans to attack-have not
panned out; thus it is usually very hard to assess the
accuracy of individual threats
Moreover, some attacks have occurred without any
prior threat or warning, so the mere absence of threats
would not necessarily signal a
Secret
GI TR 84-023
1 November 1984
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Iran continues to recruit and train radical Shias from
nearly all of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf, and
evidence indicates some of these individuals have been
infiltrated back into their homelands to conduct
terrorist activities. We believe Iran has Shia
sympathizers in place for terrorist operations in most
of the Gulf states, and Iranian embassies are available
to support, plan, and direct attacks:
? In Kuwait, the capabilities of the security forces are
improving but remain insufficient to eliminate the
terrorist threat. Dawa Party? members convicted for
the bombings of December 1983 remain in jail in
Kuwait, and US interests could be targets of any
Iranian attempt to secure their release through
extortion. The location of the US Embassy in
Kuwait makes it very vulnerable to attack,
? In Bahrain, Iran is continuing its terrorist campaign
by training expatriate Bahraini Shias and then
trying to infiltrate them back into the country.
In contrast to the pro-Iranian Shias, Palestinians
currently present a lower threat to US facilities and
personnel. Groups within the PLO generally continue
to observe Arafat's 1974 ban on terrorism outside
Israel and the occupied territories. We believe that
Arafat would sanction a return to international
terrorism only if he felt the survival of the PLO as an
organization or his continuation as its leader
depended on it. On the other hand, a widening of the
schism between pro- and anti-Arafat factions might
lead some of the more radical PLO groups to violate
the ban.
group Saiqa may already have done so;
Whether PLO-connected terrorists would target US
interests is another question. The Syrian-controlled
The US Navy facility received an anonymous threat
from Islamic Jihad early last summer.
? In Iraq, despite a pervasive government security
apparatus, there were several Dawa Party attacks
against British and French targets during the past
year.
? In Saudi Arabia, an attack on Americans seems less
likely than in other Gulf states. The Shia
community is currently quiescent, and Saudi
internal security capabilities have improved.
Iranian-backed terrorism also poses a danger to US
interests in places outside Lebanon and the Persian
Gulf, primarily in Western Europe.
Saiqa may a
the group responsible for detonating a small bomb at
Outside the PLO, the Abu Nidal Group (previously
known as the Black June Organization), now based in
and probably controlled by Syria, poses a serious
threat in Jordan and possibly elsewhere. The group,
which has staged assassinations and bombings of non-
US targets in more than 25 countries, placed bombs
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near US diplomatic facilities in Jordan last August.
We believe that Syria is currently using the group-
along with the Jordanian Revolutionary People's
Party-to maintain pressure on King Hussein not to
negotiate with Israel or support Arafat. The recent
Jordanian resumption of diplomatic relations with
Egypt may provoke more terrorist attacks in Jordan,
possibly against US targets. Last July a number of
US Embassies and other facilities in the Middle East
received threats from the Arab Revolutionary
Brigades, a covername previously associated with the
A major imponderable is the Lebanese Armed
Revolutionary Faction (LARF), a group apparently
based in France whose focus on US targets makes it a
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Abu Nidal Group.
Libyan-backed terrorists became a major
international problem again in 1984, after a year of
low activity, but none of Tripoli's 25 attacks this year
were against US targets. Despite Qadhafi's strident
anti-US rhetoric, he appears reluctant to strike at the
United States directly. Qadhafi might abandon that
reluctance if he were to become convinced that US
support for his opponents was seriously threatening
him or if he believed himself faced with a direct US
challenge. Libya's strong ties with some terrorist
groups, the growth of its own terrorist capabilities,
and the nation's substantial economic resources give
Qadhafi the capability to attack US targets abroad at
any time. US personnel and facilities are most
vulnerable to Libyan attacks in Western Europe and
the Middle East, where Libyan intelligence agents
stalking anti-Qadhafi exiles enjoy considerable
freedom of movement and can obtain guidance,
safehaven, weapons, and explosives from Libyan
peoples bureaus (embassies). An act of Libyan
terrorism in the United States is conceivable but
much less likely, owing to US security measures
Should Qadhafi choose to attack a US target, here or
abroad, we believe he would try to work through a
non-Libyan surrogate in order to try to conceal
Libya's hand.
Western Europe
Many of the best known indigenous Marxist-anarchist
terrorist groups in the region are no longer as active as
they were a few years ago; instead they are on the
defensive as the result of aggressive and effective
government countermeasures. Nevertheless, such
groups still pose a significant threat to US personnel
and property in parts of Western Europe.
serious threat to US personnel at any time.
composed of a mixture of leftist Europeans and
radical Palestinians. LARF has attacked US and
Israeli diplomats sporadically since 1981; most
recently it tried to assassinate the US Consul in
Strasbourg in March 1984.
The "anti-imperialist" and anti-Israeli French
anarchist group Action Directe (AD) was extremely
active in Paris last summer, bombing offices of the
Atlantic Institute for International Affairs, the
European Space Agency, and targeting the Western
European Union. In the past, Action Directe has
bombed facilities of private US firms in France. The
group, which has access to nearly a ton of TNT stolen
from a Belgian quarry in June 1984, recently
threatened to attack "symbols of Western
Imperialism" by placing five car bombs around Paris.
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Although the leftist Red Army Faction (RAF) has not
committed a terrorist act since 1981, the capture of
six RAF personnel in July 1984 may have prevented
the staging of a number of attacks against US and
NATO targets in West Germany. Among the targets
were several US Army installations in the southern
part of the country and about 30 spots along the
NATO fuel pipeline. The RAF's surprising ability to 25X1
recruit new members despite West German police
successes makes it a continuing threat to US interests.
Another group, the Revolutionary Cells (RZ), has
been responsible for most of the recent terrorist acts in
West Germany. RZ attacks have consisted mainly of
explosive and incendiary harassment bombings. US
targets have included both military installations and
private commercial facilities.
Red Brigades (BR)
indicate a continuing interest in NATO
installations as well as domestic political and military
targets. The Red Brigades claimed responsibility for
the assassination in Rome last February of Leamon
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Hunt, the US chief of the Sinai Multinational Force
and Observers. Key members remain at large, and the
group continues to reorganize amidst indications that
it has improved internal security practices, at least in
northern Italy. Even more ominous, recent reforms in
the preventive detention system could allow the
release of some 300 accused terrorists from prison,
including several BR members suspected of being
involved in the Aldo Moro kidnaping and murder.
Last summer Italy suffered through a spate of small
bombings carried out by leftist groups-not
necessarily associated with the Red Brigades-
against US commercial interests and targets related
to the NATO presence.
The October First Antifascist Resistance Group
(GRAPO), a small leftwing Spanish group that may
number fewer than 10 members, has survived
repeated attempts by the Spanish police to destroy it.
Its "anti-imperialist" stance may cause it to target
US military installations in Spain. The group is
known to have gathered data on US military housing
complexes associated with the US base at Torrejon,
but we believe it lacks the capability to conduct a
large-scale attack against such targets. GRAPO did
embark last summer on a small-scale bombing
campaign that included among its targets the General
Motors showroom in Aviles.
The Revolutionary Organization of 17 November, a
leftwing Greek terrorist group, remains a serious
threat to US personnel and installations. The group,
which has labeled the United States "a power of
occupation and terrorism," claimed responsibility for
the assassination of US Navy Captain Tsantes in late
1983 and the shooting this year of a US military
courier.
Turkish police have warned the US Embassy that the
Marxist-Leninist Armed Propaganda Unit (MLAPU),
a group responsible for assassinating several
Americans during the 1970s, although decimated by
arrests is still capable of terrorist attacks. Based on
MLAPU's past record and the propaganda value an
attack on a US target would have, we believe the
threat to US servicemen from MLAPU-and perhaps
from other Turkish terrorist groups-is still
significant.
Latin America
Terrorism in Latin America usually occurs in the
context of leftist guerrilla insurgencies whose
members see the United States as the major supporter
and manipulator of the governments they seek to
overthrow. The terrorist threat to Americans is
probably highest in Colombia, owing to US support
for the government's actions against narcotics
traffickers and leftist guerrillas. Both the traffickers
and the guerrillas have demonstrated the capability
and the will to strike back with terrorism against US
officials and facilities. The most virulently anti-US
group is the Ricardo Franco Front-a faction of the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. The front
claimed responsibility for a series of bombings in
Bogota last May directed primarily against facilities
of the US Government and US firms such as ITT and
Although there have been relatively few terrorist
attacks against US targets in El Salvador over the
past 10 years, the terrorist threat there appears to be
rising. Leftist Salvadoran guerrillas of the Clara
Elizabeth Ramirez Front have been surveilling US
Embassy personnel, especially Marine security
guards. According to a recent Embassy report, the
guerrillas also intend to launch a terrorist offensive in
San Salvador soon. The guerrillas are likely to target
US military advisers-as was done in the May 1983
assassination of US Navy Lieutenant Commander
Schaufleberger-and institutions associated with the
US Embassy.
The terrorist threat to US personnel and installations
elsewhere in Latin America seems lower, although a
scattering of reports and indications prevent
complacency:
Ithe leftist group Alfaro
Vive, Carajo, which set off a bomb at the US
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Embassy in Quito in May 1984, indicate the group
plans further attacks including a second bombing at
the Embassy.
? In Chile, terrorist violence is on the upswing. US
commercial facilities have occasionally been
victimized by terrorist bombings.
? In Costa Rica, the leftwing terrorist group La
Familia was surveilling Embassy personnel last
January, as if planning a terrorist operation, but
most members of the group have since been
arrested.
? In Guatemala, the Revolutionary Armed Forces,
which was responsible for anti-American attacks in
1983, reportedly is planning soon to engage in urban
terrorism.
? In Bolivia, the US Ambassador's residence was
bombed last March by elements believed associated
with drug traffickers. According to US officials, a
terrorist car bomb attack against the Embassy
would be difficult to prevent and could have
devastating results.
? In Argentina, rightist frustration prompted threats
against US installations during President Alfonsin's
just concluded visit to Washington.
Africa
The only serious terrorist threat to US personnel and
facilities in Africa is likely to come from hostile
Libyan-sponsored groups, mainly in countries that
stretch south and east from Libya itself:
? In Chad, with French troops in the process of
pulling out, US facilities in the capital may be at
greater risk.
? In Sudan, Libyan-sponsored dissidents in the south
probably represent the greatest threat.
? In Ethiopia, through which most of Tripoli's aid to
the Sudanese rebels is funneled, a large Libyan
infrastructure could carry out attacks on American
diplomats with little or no warning. A house in
Addis Ababa occupied by Libyans who were
building a bomb blew up on 11 May, just after the
resolution of the siege of the Libyan People's
Bureau in London.
? In Zaire, US facilities are at some risk of attack
from Zairian exiles operating out of neighboring
states; they are receiving support and guidance from
Libya.
Elsewhere in Africa, the threats are more difficult to
assess. Small pockets of Islamic fundamentalists exist
in various parts of northern Africa, such as northern
Nigeria, and if they decided-or were persuaded-to
attack US interests, we might have little or no
warning. Militating against such a development is the
fact that these groups are closely watched by host
governments, which view them as threats to regime
stability. In other African countries, such as Uganda,
a combination of inadequate security and endemic
political violence poses a continuing low-level threat to 25X1
official and nonofficial US personnel and
installations.
attacks in the region suggests that American interests
in some countries may nevertheless be at some risk.
The most significant threat is in South Asia;
elsewhere the threat seems to be lower:
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? In Pakistan, the leftwing dissident group Al-
Zulfikar has recently targeted US interests. In 25X1
December 1983, for example, Al-Zulfikar members 25X1
were apprehended while planning to kill the US
Consul General in Lahore. Members of another Al-
Zulfikar cell were arrested in Vienna last summer
after planning to seize American hostages there and
in Rome.
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? In Sri Lanka, Tamil terrorist groups represent an
increasing threat to US personnel and facilities.
Since May, an American US AID couple has been
kidnaped, the hotel housing the Israeli Interests
Section of the US Embassy has been bombed, and
the main US AID office was the object of a planned
bombing.
? In Bangladesh, a new threat could grow out of an
"Islamic Jihad Organization" with reported ties to
both Libya and Iran. The group has stated its
intention to attack "un-Islamic" Western targets,
beginning later this year.
? In Japan, the leftwing radical group Chukaku-ha
(Nucleus Faction) conducted a series of minor
firebombings against lightly guarded US facilities
last summer,
? In Korea, the threat to US installations also seems
to center on firebombings. Three American cultural
facilities there have been attacked in this fashion
since 1982. South Korean dissidents are thought to
have been responsible for the bombings, which
killed or injured several South Koreans.
? In the Philippines, anti-Marcos violence by the
Communist New People's Army could affect US
interests with little or no warning. The last attack
against American servicemen was in 1971, but the
United States remains a high-visibility target
because of its many military and diplomatic
installations.
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Syria and the Shia Extremists
in Lebanon
Throughout 1984, Syrian relations with the radical
Shia groups in Lebanon have fluctuated between
cooperation and confrontation. Although Syria has
restricted the activities of the radical Shias during
periods of tension, it has neither tried to expel them
from their strongholds nor moved to reduce their
capabilities significantly. In the wake of the 20
September bombing of the US Embassy Annex in
Beirut, for example, Syria appeared to be about to
crack down severely on the activities of the Hizballah
in the Bekaa Valley. After an initial show of force,
however, Damascus backed away again. It now
appears that Damascus is trying to establish a degree
of control over the radical Shias so they can be used-
like Palestinian groups such as Saiqa and the Abu
Nidal Group-to serve Syrian interests.
In our judgment, even if Syria were to try to totally
stifle the Hizballah, it would not succeed. Shia
terrorists, in Beirut at least, would retain sufficient
capabilities to pose a continuing threat to Syrian
interests as well as Israeli and Western interests. The
Syrian policy of attempting to co-opt the Shia
extremists may be in part a pragmatic response to the
government's recognition of its inability to completely
control them and of the consequent dangers of trying
to do so.
The Origins of the Shia Extremists
Although Muslims of the Shia branch of Islam
constitute the largest confessional group in Lebanon,
they have never shared equitably in the nation's
wealth or the exercise of political power; instead,
Christians and Sunni Muslims have dominated the
political scene and enjoyed a disproportionate share of
the wealth. Shia resentment began to crystallize in the
mid-1970s under the charismatic leadership of the
Imam Musa Sadr, who demanded economic and
political reforms to redress Shia grievances.' The
political-military organization that he founded, known
as Amal (Hope), encouraged the Shias to abandon
their traditional passivity and improve their situation
by political and religious activism. The Iranian
revolution in December 1979 and the Israeli invasion
of southern Lebanon (where Shias predominate) in
June 1982 galvanized the Shias and set the stage for
the emergence of radical groups prone to terrorism.
Iran, for its part, selected Lebanon as a prime target
for the export of an Iranian-style fundamentalist
Islamic revolution. The growing radical Shia
movement made Lebanon fertile ground for Iran's
Islamic fundamentalism, and chronic instability and
violence has left Lebanon vulnerable to subversion.
Iran expanded its relations with Lebanese Shias soon
after the Israeli invasion in June 1982. Iranian clerics
went to Lebanon to provide religious indoctrination to
the Shias and recruited some for further training in
Iran. About 800 Iranian Revolutionary Guards also
went to Lebanon, where they began to provide 25X1
political and religious indoctrination and military
training, including instruction in terrorist tactics. The
Revolutionary Guards, based in the Bekaa Valley,
also began to supply financial support and materiel to
their Lebanese clients. At the same time, officials in
' The Imam Musa Sadr vanished during a trip to Libya in 1978.
Many of his followers suspect Libyan foul play. As a consequence, a
terrorist group known as the Musa Sadr Brigade, reportedly a
faction of Amal, occasionally attacks Libyan targets in Lebanon
Secret
GI TR 84-023
1 November 1984
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the Iranian Embassy in Damascus established
themselves as the coordinators of Tehran's activities
in Lebanon.
Although some of the pro-Iranian Shia extremist
groups, known collectively as the Hizballah (Party of
God), are based in Ba'labakk and its environs, and
others are headquartered in southern Beirut, their
operations have extended to West Beirut and even
into southern Lebanon. Once trained by the
Revolutionary Guards, the hizballahi recruit other
Shias for religious indoctrination and military
training, disseminate pro-Khomeini propaganda, and
try to enforce Islamic law in the areas they control.
While there are probably fewer than 1,000 hizballahi,
they have the sympathy of a significant segment of
the Shia population, both in the Bekaa Valley and
Beirut.
In many ways, the Hizballah groups resemble the
other Lebanese confessional militias, manning
checkpoints and engaging in conventional urban
warfare. Unlike the other militias, however, the
Hizballah have employed spectacular terrorist
tactics-such as suicide vehicle bombings-to attack
Western and Israeli targets. Their primary goals are
to eliminate the Western presence and establish a
fundamentalist Islamic state there.
The Hizballah may not always act alone in
conducting terrorist attacks. We suspect Iranian
Revolutionary Guards may have participated in
Hizballah operations in the Beirut area.
The activities of pro-Iranian terrorist groups reached
a peak in 1983 during the presence in Lebanon of the
MNF. The number of terrorist attacks that we believe
were conducted by pro-Iranian groups (judging by
tactics, targets, and sometimes claims issued in the
name of Islamic Jihad) increased significantly during
that period. Of the 63 terrorist attacks we recorded in
Lebanon during 1983, more than 40 appear to have
been sponsored or supported by Iran. Of these attacks,
more than half were directed against elements of the
MNF, including the devastating vehicle bombings of
the US and French contingents, which together took
299 lives. US and French diplomatic interests also
were attacked frequently; the most serious event of
that type was the bombing of the US Embassy in
April, which killed 63 and injured more than 100.
Syrian Sufferance
Throughout 1983, Iranian-sponsored operations in
Lebanon were conducted with, at a minimum, Syrian
sufferance. Damascus probably also provided more
active support at times. The northern Bekaa Valley,
the stronghold of the Iranian-supported forces, has
been under the overall control of Syrian forces. By
permitting the movement of men and materiel
through Syrian checkpoints in the Bekaa Valley, the
against Lebanese, Western, and Israeli targets.
Syria and Iran shared some primary policy objectives
in Lebanon in 1983. In particular, both wanted to see
the MNF and Israeli forces withdrawn from Lebanon.
The Syrians also were determined to force Lebanese
President Gemayel to abrogate the troop withdrawal
accord he had concluded with Israel in May.
Damascus therefore condoned Hizballah terrorism
Syria's Attitude Changes
Early in 1984, however, Syria's tactics and attitude
toward the Lebanese Government shifted as a number
of developments favorable to Syrian interests took
place in Lebanon. In March the MNF contingents
withdrew; in April President Gemayel scrapped the
troop withdrawal accord he had signed with Israel a
year earlier; and in May Prime Minister Rashid
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Karami appointed a new cabinet that included pro-
Syrian opposition leaders. Consequently, Syria's
primary goals in Lebanon began to diverge from those
of Iran. Damascus is now working to stabilize the
security situation and initiate political reforms, while
Iran continues to work for the creation of a
fundamentalist Islamic state through the
radicalization of the Lebanese Shia community.
Damascus fears that it would have little control over
the leadership of such a state and that a clerical
regime in Lebanon could eventually pose a serious
threat to the secular government in Syria.
The evidence suggests that as the activities of the pro-
Iranian groups in Lebanon began to threaten Syria's
interests last spring and summer, Damascus began to
impose some constraints on them:
decline can be explained by the reduced number of
terrorist targets and opportunities, Syrian efforts to
limit Hizballah activities also may have played a part.
With the MNF gone, the principal foreign targets of
the Hizballah have been US, French, and Saudi
diplomatic interests, and Lebanese civilians. In
addition, since the
beginning of this year, the radical Shias have diverted
some resources to southern Lebanon, where they have
become more involved in the guerrilla war against
Israeli military forces.
Syria has only gradually imposed restrictions on the
activities of Iran's assets in Lebanon, and to date the
limitations fall far short of a total crackdown]
? Last summer Syrian troops reportedly moved to
restrict Hizballah activities in the Bekaa Valley and
dismantled some Hizballah checkpoints there.
According to press such
restrictions have provoked several violent clashes
between Hizballah gunmen and Syrian troops.
? I,arly in September Damascus ordered that
documents permitting travel between Lebanon and
Syria be withdrawn from several Hizballah leaders,
including Husayn and Abbas Musawi, leading
members of the Hizballah.
Decline in Shia Terrorism
The number of terrorist attacks committed by the
radical Shia groups in Lebanon has declined
significantly since the departure of the MNF
contingents in April. During the first three months of
1984, extremist Shias probably were responsible for
24 terrorist attacks in Lebanon, compared with 18
during the following six months. While most of this
from their positions in the Bekaa Valley.
between Syrian troops and Hizballah gunmen,
Damascus has not tried to expel the Shia extremists
Syrian leaders have been reluctant to attempt a total
crackdown on the pro-Iranian terrorist groups in
Lebanon. A direct confrontation might jeopardize
some of the economic benefits-such as high-quality
oil at low prices-that Syria derives from its special
relationship with Iran. Damascus may also fear that
moving too forcefully against the extremist Lebanese
Shias could provoke them to mount terrorist attacks
against Syrian interests.
Moreover, the Syrians almost certainly find the Shia
extremist groups useful in a number of ways. For
example, Damascus approves of-in fact
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encourages-Hizballah attacks against Israeli forces 25X1
in southern Lebanon. The radical groups also serve as
a lever that Damascus can manipulate to put pressure
on moderate Shia Amal leader Nabih Barri. The
Syrians may also be planning to use the pro-Iranian
terrorists to attack Jordanian targets.
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4
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a There have been almost daily attacks against elements of the
Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon, many of which were
undoubtedly conducted by Shias associated with the Hizballah, but
we do not count such attacks as terrorist events.
First nine nonths of the year.
checkpoints throughout the area, Iranians and
possibly Lebanese Shias continued to use the military
training facilities there, and that the Revolutionary
Guards appeared to be moving about at will.
Outlook
Judging from Assad's reaction to the latest Hizballah
bombing, Syrian tolerance for such activities is
probably not unlimited. Should new Hizballah
operations-such as attacks on Western diplomatic
facilities-threaten to further destabilize the security
situation in Lebanon, Damascus might move more
forcefully against the pro-Iranian groups. For
example, Syria could significantly weaken Hizballah
capabilities by expelling the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards from the Bekaa Valley. Even just closing the
military and staging facilities in the area would be a
major blow to both the Hizballah and Iranian
Revolutionary Guards.
Syria's Response to the Bombing
of the US Embassy Annex
Syrian
President Assad was surprised and angered by the
bombing and responded by sending Syrian forces to
encircle Iranian and Hizballah positions in the Bekaa
Valley, including the stronghold of Husayn Musawi's
Islamic Amal terrorists.
Syrian tanks deployed against a
major Hizballah training facility in Ba'labakk.
Even if the Syrians were to try, they almost certainly
would not be able to completely eliminate Hizballah
capabilities or activities in Lebanon. The most fanatic
among the Lebanese Shia extremists-exemplified by
the suicide bombers-would not be dissuaded even by
direct Syrian opposition from pursuing their
fundamentalist objectives.
If the Hizballah were to lose their staging areas in the
Bekaa Valley, they could rely on the infrastructure
they have developed in West Beirut and the southern
suburbs to plan and launch terrorist operations. As
the September bombing clearly demonstrated, radical
Shia capabilities are not limited to Muslim areas of
the capital. Consequently, regardless of what Syria
does or tries to do in Lebanon, US and other Western
interests will continue to be at risk from Hizballah
terrorists.
Ba'labakk area in late September and early October
Syrian troops were manning
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Chronology of Terrorism-1984
events covered elsewhere in this issue in greater detail.
Below are described noteworthy foreign and international terrorist events and
counterterrorism developments that have occurred or come to light since our last
issue. Events and developments that have already been described in previous
issues are not included unless new information has surfaced. Asterisks denote
Early September West Bank: Fatah Official Captured
Near Hebron, Israeli security forces arrested Ali Halil Riba'i, believed to be a
senior Fatah leader on the West Bank. According to press reports, Israeli security
officials had been trying to capture Riba'i for 14 years, after the rest of his cell was
destroyed in the early 1970s.
21 September
were defused by police. The Musa Sadr Brigade may have planted them.
*Cyprus: Anti-Libyan Bombings
In Nicosia, two bombs found at the Libyan Cultural Center and People's Bureau
Late September Pakistan: Afghan Saboteurs Arrested
In Peshawar, Pakistani authorities arrested three Afghans posing as refugees and
charged them with illegal possession of weapons and explosives. The three
reportedly admitted they had been sent by Khad, the Afghan secret service, to
carry out acts of sabotage.
*Mauritania: Polisario Attacks Foreign Vessel
Off the Mauritanian coast, a group of unidentified men in an assault raft,
probably from Polisario, the Western Saharan liberation movement, attacked a
Togolese cargo ship with rocket-grenades and small-arms fire. No serious damage
Secret
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1 November 1984
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Chronology of Terrorism-1984
a bombing that damaged banking transmission networks.
Spain: ETA Bombs Telephone Exchange
In Begona, members of Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) were responsible for
members of one of the Palestinian groups based in Syria.
West Bank: Armed Infiltrators Killed
Near Magharah, an Israeli Defense Forces patrol killed three unidentified armed
persons who may have infiltrated from Jordan. The three were armed with
Kalashnikov rifles, grenades, and other small arms. The three probably were
terrorist under the current government.
Turkey: Dev Yol Terrorist Executed
In Izmir, a former member of Dev Yol was executed for the murder of a night
watchman. According to press reports, this was the first execution of a convicted
people and damaged three vehicles.
Spain: ETA Bombing Injures Three People
In Elgoibar, suspected members of ETA/M detonated a bomb that wounded three
others were convicted for distributing hostile propaganda.
Yugoslavia: Albanian Nationalists Sentenced
In Pristina, 10 Albanian nationalists received prison sentences for terrorist
activities that included planting bombs in various parts of Kosovo since 1981. Four
over parochial schools currently raging on the island.
Malta: Two Unclaimed Bombings
In Valletta, a bomb exploded at a government computer center, causing extensive
damage to the building, but no injuries. Elsewhere in the capital another explosion
resulted in minor damage to a church-affiliated school. No claims of responsibility
were received for either incident, but we suspect they were related to a controversy
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Mid-October Belgium: FCC Bombings Continue
On 15 October in Brussels, a bomb seriously damaged a building used by the
Belgian Liberal Party. On 17 October in Ghent, the fifth terrorist bombing of the
month occurred at the headquarters of Prime Minister Martens's Democratic
Party. Both bombings caused severe damage but no casualties. The Fighting
Communist Cells (FCC) claimed credit.
bomb.
West Bank: Israeli Bus Attacked
Near Nablus, a bomb exploded at the roadside as an Israeli bus passed by. At least
seven children were wounded. No group has claimed responsibility for placing the
defective and proved to be made of nine-year-old dynamite.
*Portugal: FP-25 Bombs French Targets
Asserting solidarity with the Basque separatist ETA, the Portuguese left wing
terrorist group FP-25, most of whose members are in prison awaiting trial, claimed
credit for planting five small bombs-four at Portuguese branches of the French-
based Credit Franco-Portugais and one at the office of a French insurance agency.
Only two exploded, causing minor damage and no injuries; the others were
the bomb.
Gaza Strip: Bomb Defused
In Gaza, security forces safely defused a bomb discovered in a square near the
Israeli administration building. No group has claimed responsibility for placing
16-17 October FPMR Bombing Campaign
In Santiago, the Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR) claimed credit for a
series of bombings of powerlines, banks, and various municipal and private
buildings. In Rancugua and Talca, bombs caused extensive damage to the
Chilean-North American Cultural Institute and the Chilean Agricultural Center.
Three persons were injured, and eight regions of the country were blacked out for
several hours.
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17 October Spain: ETA Shoots Policeman
In Renteria, members of ETA shot and killed a Spanish policeman.
Chile: Communist Youths Briefly Occupy Argentine Embassy
In Santiago, 10 members of the National Youth Command briefly occupied the
Argentine Embassy. The Communist-affiliated group made a number of demands,
including that the Chilean Government reinstate 14 Communist copperworkers
fired for participating in an illegal strike. They also requested that Argentina
intervene'on their behalf with the Chilean Government and bring their demands to
the attention of the United Nations.
17-24 October Netherlands: Bomb Threats to Diplomatic Installations
The American, British, and French Embassies and the American Consulate were
the targets of bomb threats, at least two of which turned out to be hoaxes. The
authors are unknown.
Ethiopia: TPLF Kidnaps Foreigners
In Lalibela, insurgents of the Tigrean People's Liberation Front (TPLF) seized
about eight foreign hostages, including two Americans, when they overran the
town. There is no evidence that the foreigners were. the targets of the attack, and
efforts are under way within Ethiopia and in Sudan to persuade the TPLF to free
them.
*Sudan: Anya Nya Releases Captive Priests
In Mayom, the three priests who had been captured by the insurgent group Anya
N.ya II in an attack on-the town of Bentiu on 4 September were freed unharmed.
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Chronology of Terrorism-1984
rights for 60 days.
Peru: Sendero Luminoso Attacks
In Huancayo, Sendero Luminoso guerrillas attacked police stations and
government facilities, killing 10 civil guards. President Belaunde has ordered the
Army into the area, enacted a state of emergency, and suspended constitutional
20-21 October France: Action Directe Bombings
On 20 October in a Paris suburb, a bomb exploded in an office building, injuring
two people. Police suspect the anarchist group Action Directe was responsible. On
21 October another explosion damaged an aviation company research facility;
Action Directe claimed responsibility. On the same day a Paris shop was bombed
by unknown persons, causing damage but no injuries.
20-23 October
insurgents killed in combat.
Peru: Mass Graves Discovered
In Huanta, north of Ayacucho, 52 bodies unearthed in three locations showed
signs of torture and were covered with banners bearing the hammer-and-sickle
symbol. Although press reports state the victims had been killed by the Sendero
Luminoso as informers, the Interior Minister suggested they may have been
and a shop but no injuries. The PIRA is believed responsible.
Northern Ireland: Three PIRA Bombings
In Newry, three bombs exploded during the night causing damage at two garages
Brazil-Argentina: Montonero Leader Extradicted
Mario Eduardo Firmenich, head of the Peronist Montoneros, a terrorist group
active in the mid-1970s until decimated by the Argentine military regime, was
extradicted from Brazil to Argentina to face charges of murder, kidnaping, and
extortion. 0 25X1
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bomb explosion at a farmer's home.
Portugal: FP-25 Bombs Farmer's Home
In Evora, members of the Popular Forces of 25 April claimed responsibility for a
separatist terrorists exploded, killing three and injuring 11.
*Sri Lanka: Tamil Terrorist Bombs in Colombo
Ten of 13 bombs planted in various public locations around Colombo by Tamil
extensive.
Spain: Anti-French Attacks by ETA Continue
In Noain, suspected members of ETA bombed a French-owned clothes factory. In
the evening, a French truck on the Bilbao-Behovia highway was shot at; ETA/M
claimed responsibility. No one was injured in the attacks, but damage was
Socialist Party.
Lebanon: AP Employees Abducted and Released
In West Beirut, unidentified gunmen abducted four Lebanese employees of the
Associated Press news service and reportedly took them to the Shia suburb of
Ouzai. Amal leader Nabih Barri secured their release the following day. No group
claimed responsibility for the abduction, but one of the kidnapers told the victims
they were not members of either the Amal militia or the Druze Progressive
Chile: Nine Anonymous Bombings
Santiago and Concepcion were the scene of nine bombing attacks. Targets
included government buildings, businesses, and transportation and energy-related
facilities. One person was seriously injured. No group has claimed responsibility.
support for tribal separatists advocating a Pashtun nation.
Pakistan: Movie Theater Bombed
In Peshawar, at least three persons were killed and another 30 wounded when a
bomb destroyed a movie theater owned by a prominent local politician. No one has
claimed responsibility for the act, but a political motive is suspected. The owner
had changed his party's name the previous day from the "Frontier National
Democratic Party" (NDP) to the "Pakhtoonkhwa NDP," signifying increased
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25 October Italy: ARB Attacks UAE Envoy
In Rome, a gunman fired on the car of the vice consul of the United Arab
Emirates, badly wounding him and killing a female Iranian student riding with
him. The Arab Revolutionary Brigades, which we suspect may be a name used by
elements of the Abu Nidal Group, later claimed responsibility for the attack. F_
26 October Malta: Bombing at British Facility
Near Valletta, an explosion outside the office of the British High Commission
shattered windows in nearby buildings and damaged a vehicle but caused no
casualties. A second bomb was found in a public garden nearby, after it had failed
to detonate. No one has claimed responsibility.
attack.
*Portugal: RPG Attack Against US Embassy
In Lisbon, two rocket-propelled grenades mounted on improvised launchers and
aimed at the new US Embassy were discovered in a field about 65 meters away.
They had failed to fire because of a malfunction. No one claimed credit for the
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