NFIC COMMENTS ON CIPC'S MOBILE MISSILE STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G01116R000200140005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 15, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 7, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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NFIC 64.4/74B
7 March 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Assistant, DDCI
FROM:
SUBJECT:
REF:
Executive Secretary, NFIC
NFIC Comments on CIPC's Mobile Missile Study
NFIC 64.4/74A
The Secretariat this morning unexpectedly received an additional
comment on the Critical Intelligence Problems Committee's Soviet Land-Based
Mobile Missile Study, this one from MGen Bissell, Air Force Assistant Chief of
tai; Intelligence. He concurs with the study and anticipates additional
work. His comments, thus, do not alter the content of my memorandum to the
DDCI of 5 March 1986 on this matter, but should be added to the package of
comments.
Attachment:
USAF ACSI Memorandum, 28 February 1986
SECR
EXt:-.,
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SUBJECT: NFIC Comments on CIPC's Mobile Missile Study
Distribution: NFIC 64.4/748
1 - EA/DDCI
2 - Executive Registry
3 - ES/CIPC
4 - NFIC Chrono
5 - NFIC Micro
6 - ICS Registry
ES/NFIC)
(7 Mar 86) 25X1
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DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE
HEADQUARTERS UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
WASHINGTON, D.C.
REPLY TO
ATTN OF: IN
~ 8 FEB 1986
Critical Intelligence Problem Committee's (CIPC) Soviet Land-Based Mobile
Missile Study (S)
Executive Secretary, NFIC
1. (S) I have reviewed the CIPC study and concur with its findings. Its
conclusions are consistent with previous inquiries which indicate our ability
to hold relocatable targets at risk will emanate from an evolution of intel-
ligence capabilities, planning procedures, and computing power as opposed to
a single "revolutionary" development.
2. (S) Members of my staff have recently participated in an Air Staff working
group reviewing technology developments that may be applied for attacking
relocatable targets. We reviewed technologies that apply to collection,
processing, fusion, command and control, and providing a suitable force struc-
ture. We also took a cut at costing the solutions. Our conclusions were
similar to yours. An interesting issue which surfaced is the possibility of
investigating a mix of strategies for neutralizing mobile missiles which
includes the Strategic Defense Initiative.
3. (S) Although an important milestone in addressing the Soviet land-based
offensive mobile missile threat, the study cannot be considered the final word
on the subject. We look forward to working with the CIPC Mobile Missile Panel
on further efforts to improve the capability of intelligence to address the
different aspects of this critical problem.
Z_n
SCHUYLER'BISSELL Maj Ge%USAF
Asst Chief of Staff, Intelligence
CLASSIFIED BY: Multiple Sources
DECLASSIFY ON: OADR
SECRET
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NFIC 64.4/74A
5 March 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Executive Secretary
National Foreign Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: NFIC Comments on Mobile Missile Study
1. Attached, per your request, are the comments provided by the NFIC
principals on the Critical Intelligence Problems Committee's Soviet Land-Based
Mobile Missile Study.
-- CIA recommends the study not be published for a variety of
reasons.
-- State concurs, but only if changes are made in the study's
treatment of monitoring mobile missiles.
-- Navy concurs implicitly and requests that sea-based mobile
missiles be given greater attention. also
implicitly concurs, suggesting three modest c anges.
-- NSA, DIA, and OSD (C3I) concur with the study as written.
-- The other principals did not comment- which the SacrPtariat
takes as concurrence.
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TOP SECRET
SUBJECT: NFIC Comments on Mobile Missile Study
2. In view of the varied reactions to this study, do you wish an NFIC
meeting called to discuss its disposition?
Atta
A.
B.
C.
D
cnments:
CIA Comments
State Comments TS 0413-86, Copy
-
N v omments
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Deputy Director of Central Intelligence i
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
" 4~
A&A-~
Na,
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SUBJECT: NFIC Comments on Mobile Missile Study
2. In view of the varied reactions to this study, do you wish an NFIC
meeting called to discuss its disposition?
A.
B.
C.
D.
State Comments
Navv Cnmmantc
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
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r+
n
C+
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Central Intelligence Agency
21 February 1986
Copy _ of 14
Series B, Copy o
MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Secretary
National Foreign Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Non-Concurrence with the Critical Intelligence Problem
Committee's Report Entitled Soviet Land-Based Mobile Missile
Study
1. This memorandum responds to your request for comments on the subject
report. This Agency believes that the best course of action is to leave the
study in its current form and not publish it under NFIB auspices.
2. The CIPC Mobile Missile report has provided some extremely useful
information and resulted in increased Intelligence Community awareness of the
enormity of the mobile missile problem. However, the report was drafted a
year ago and the CIA demurral over six months ago. Since that time, our
knowledge of Soviet mobile missile activities has increased. Intelligence
Community sources and assessments have also been modified. Further, targeting
and arms control concepts have changed so that the judgments in the CIPC's
report must be reconsidered and modified if the report is to be completed
formally.
3. The fact is that this report has already had much of its intended
impact. Much of the significant recommended work--including a major systems
development study by the NRO--is already underway. In any case, if the report
is to be published as an NFIB document, at a minimum, it needs major updating
and revision. However, because the CIPC Mobile Missile Panel Chairman and
first two Executive Secretaries are no longer available, and virtually all of
the on inal Panel representatives have changed, this would require a major
effort.
4. Both a year ago and particularly now--as things have evolved--our
major problems are with, the substance of the report. First and foremost, the
key portions of this report--ranging from targeting to arms control--are out
of balance with one another. Specifically:
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TOP SECRET
UNCLASSIFIED when blank - TOP SECRET when attached to Top Secret Document - Automatically downgraded or
declassified when filled in form is detached from the controlled document.
CONTROL AND COVER SHEET FOR TOP SECRET DOCUMENT (COLLATERAL)
CIA T.S. CONTROL NUMBER
ICS
TS0413-86
CIA COPY NUMBER
2
DOCUMENT DATE
25 Feb 86
DATE RECEIVED
NO. PAGES
2
NO. OF ATTACHMENTS (CIA T.S. # of Attachment)
None
BRANCH, BADGE #, OR LOCATION
DCI/ICS
LOGGED BY
BD
SUBJECT:
CIPC's Soviet Land-Based Mobile Missile Study
CIA SOURCE INFORMATION
ORIGINATOR
EXTERNAL SOURCE INFORMATION
ORIGINATOR
DIRECTORATE
DCI
OFFICE/BRANCH
ICS/NFIB
AGENCY
State
CONTROL NUMBER
COPY NO.
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When this form is detached from Top Secret material it shall be completed in the appropriate spaces below and forwarded to the Agency Top
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UNMI NOFORN
DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
OFFICE OF THE CHIEF OF NAVAL OPERATIONS
WASHINGTON, DC 20350-2000
IN REPLY REFER TO
Ser 009F/6S362555
25 February 1986
Subj: The Critical Intelligence Problems Committee's Soviet Land-Based
Mobile Missile Study (U)
Ref: (a) Draft CIPC Study TCS 1715-85/1
1. (S) Navy has reviewed the statement of the problem and proposed
solutions stated in reference (a) for mitigating intelligence deficiencies in
the area of Soviet mobile missiles. We are concerned that the study focuses
exclusively on the development and application of new sensor capabilities to
the land-based problem. The land-based mobile missile problem is very close
in concept and solution to the sea-based mobile missile problem. Land, sea
(and air) mobile missile challenges should be addressed as integral,
complementary elements of the larger "Soviet strategic forces" problem. They
are not, and should not be treated as competing, unique problems.
2. (S) At the 1985 off-site conference, the community leadership was in
agreement that the land-based mobile missile problem constitutes only a part
of the larger strategic problem and that a coordinated intelligence attack on
one aspect of the mobile missile problem cannot be made in isolation from
other crucial aspects of the same problem. We endorse this approach and
recommend expanding the scope of reference (a) to include all aspects of the
strategic relocatable targets problem.
RICHARD L. HAVER
Deputy Director of Naval
Intelligence
CLASSIFIED BY OPNAVINST S5513.4B-4
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SLUR NOFORN.
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