AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 7, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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M
DOC NO
1 X
OIR_ / 7i
P&PD C
Afghanistan Situation Report
79_80
I M C/CB
NESA M 86-20156CX
SOVA - 099CX
toftr 25X1
C*Y 080
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/22 : CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
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Last week Soviet and Afghan forces continued
trying to rout insurgent groups from Paghman,
where such operations have been under waV for well
INSURGENTS SCORE FIRST SUCCESS WITH STINGERS ~ 2 25X1
In late September Afghan insurgents, using Stinger
air defense missiles in combat for the first time,
shot down at least two Soviet helicopters near
Jalalabad
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/22 : CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
PAKISTANIS UPSET OVER MOOOLLUM SHIPMENTS
Poorly quality commodities being shipped under the
McCollum Program could be cited by the Pakistani
Government as a reason to discontinue the
assistance.
Afghan regime
managers at a raisin packing factory are aware
that heroin is being hidden in raisin export
shipments. It is unclear what role, if any, the
Afghan Government has had in this operation.
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IN BRIEF 5
NAZIAN: VALLEY OF DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE AFGHAN REGIME
Despite several attempts this year, predominantly
by the Afghan Army, to establish long-lasting
control of the strategic Nazian Valley in
Nangarhar Province, the regime has been able to
make little progress.
This document was prepared by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be
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7 October 1986
NESA M 86-20156CX
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Tashkent
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SOVIET U?NION
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Ghazni,
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I N D I A
Afghanistan
International boundary
-?- Province boundary
? National capital
Province capital
Railroad
Road
0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
r-~
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
Boundary repre entation is
of necessarily authoritative
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SOYA M. 86-20099CX
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FIGHTING IN PAr' AND NANGARHAR
Soviet and Afghan forces stepped up combat operations
last week in Paghman, west of Kabul, in the continuing
effort to contain the insurgent threat to the
capital. Following a pre-dawn artillery barrage on 3
October, a Soviet heliborne assault--employing at least
32 Mi-8s and Mi-24s--was directed against insurgent
positions in the hills near Paghman, according to US
Embassy sources. Jet fighters subsequently bombed a
small valley south of Paghman city. During the next
two days, Afghan regime soldiers restricted northward-
bound civilian traffi
nearby
Soviet and Afghan combat operations are also under way
in Nan arhar Pro i
motorized rifle, airborne, and artiller
departed garrison
INSURGENTS SCORE FIRST SUCCESS WITH STINGERS
the Afghan resistance shot
own at least two MI-8 helicopters near Jalalabad last
week using Stinger missiles. Another helicopter was
hit but may have been able to land safely. A fourth
Stinger failed to hit its target. Military flight
activity is continuing from Jalalabad, although some
civilian flights were canceled
two helicopters
crashed near the a i r p o r t , and that at least one of t
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helicopters was equipped with an infrared jammer. 25X1
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COMMENT: These are the first Stinger "kills" in
Afghanistan. We do not know whether the heliborne
7 October 1986
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SOVA M 86-20099CX
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/22 : CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
jammers were ineffective or not in use during the
attack. The losses will increase concern about the
vulnerability of their aircraft, but the Soviets'
immediate reaction probably will be to reemphasize
safety procedures and standard countermeasures,
particularly during takeoffs and landings.
7 October 1986
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/22 : CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
PAKISTANIS UPSET OVER MOOOLLUM SHIPMENTS 25X1
The Government of Pakistan recently complained that
only 25 percent of the commodities received through the
McCollum Program are useful, according to the US
Embassy in Islamabad. Pakistani officials said most of
the items on the flight of 18 September were worn-out,
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4 SOYA M 86-20099CX
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damaged, or packaged in a way that precluded useful
application.
COMMENT: Islamabad, which reluctantly agreed to the
program, could cite the deficient shipments as an
excuse for reducing or withdrawing its support for the
program and other US-initiated cross-border assistance
efforts.
heroin is
being concealed in cartons o raisins packed at two
Afghan Government plants in Kabul, with the knowledge
of plant administrators. The heroin-cum-raisin
shipments have been sent since the spring to the
Netherlands via Moscow and the Soviet port of Riga. In
May, Dutch authorities seized 220 kilograms of heroin
hidden in a shipment of raisins that had originated in
Afghanistan and crossed through the Soviet Union.
COMMENT: It is unclear what role, if any, the Afghan
Government has had in this operation. The Kabul regime
is known to promote domestic narcotics production and
may have also been involved in narcotics trafficking to
Pakistan and Iran. In any case, Afghan traffickers
probably believe that routing via the USSR would reduce
suspicions by West European customs officials that
illicit drugs would be included in the shipments.
-- The first pylons of a 56-kilometer power
transmission line from the Soviet border to
Konduz have been built, according to press
reports. The Soviet Union--which began
supplying electricity to Afghanistan in June
1985 after completion of a line to Mazar-e
Sharif--plans to extend service to other areas
in northern Afghanistan and eventually to
Kabul.
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Last month Oman gave the Government of Pakistan
$100,000 for the support of Afghan refugees,
according to press reports. This is Oman's
first official contribution to Afghan refugee
US defense attaches recently visited a cemetery
at Dushanbe which had tombstones for Soviet
military war dead clearly indicating that the
men had died from service in Afghanistan. Most
of the seventy tombstones had inscriptions
indicating the deceased were from airborne
units.
U-shaped aircraft
revetments are being built at Qandahar, Bagram,
and Shindand airfields. The revetments will
improve protection of Afghan combat aircraft
against blast damage.
Madagascar's President Ratsiraka reportedly
endorsed the Soviet position on the Afghan issue
during a recent visit to Moscow. His pro-Soviet
stance almost certainly was motivated by a wish
to obtain more financial assistance from the
USSR. Madagascar traditionally votes against
the UN resolution on Afghanistan.
A five-person group from Dutch church-affiliated
peace groups--the Inter-Church Peace Council and
Pax Christi--was invited to visit Moscow last
month by the Soviet Peace Council. The Dutch
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activists challenged the Soviets on Afghanistan
and human rights.
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NAZIAN: VALLEY OF DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE AFGHAN REGIME
Wali Khan Kukikhel.
As part of a general drive to increase its control of
the strategic eastern border provinces, the Afghan
regime tried, without much success during the first
half of early 1986 to block resistance forces from
using the Nazian Valley. Besides hindering resistance
infiltration and resupply operations, the Government
wanted to have a secure base to facilitate its support
for Afridi tribesmen linked to the Pakistani dissident,
This section of Nangarhar Province is also close to an
are open only during the summer and fall.
A Strategic Valley
The Nazian Valley in eastern Nangarhar Province is
important for insurgent forces in the area, most of
which belong to the Hizbi Islami (Khalis) party.
Several major supply routes from Pakistan intersect at
the town of Nazian. The trails cross the Safed Koh
mountain range south of Nazian through five passes that
area of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province
occupied by the Afridi tribe. The leader of one
fractious clan of the tribe--Wali Khan Kukikhel--has
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longstanding ties to the Ka
bul Government.
Objective: Secure the Vall
ey
In early 1986 Soviet and Afghan regime forces
intensified military pressure on guerrilla forces in
Nangarhar Province, as part of an overall effort to
stem insur ent resupply and
infiltration from
Pakistan.
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On 30 January, Afghan and Soviet forces began a new
offensive in the valley to capture guerrilla weaponry,
secure a route for pro-Kabul Pakistani tribesmen, and
continue interdiction of resistance convoys,
The task force comprised
elements of two Afghan infantry divisions with
additional artillery support and one Soviet motorized
rifle brigade. The outnumbered insurgents responded to
the offensive by launching diversionary attacks on
Afghan Army posts in the border area, where regime
forces were spread thin.
With the aid of new reinforcements, however, the Afghan
regime forces were able to counterattack and seize
control of the valley by 21 February,
While the regime had a preponderance of force in the
valley, insurgent forces drew back. Starting in late
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/22 : CIA-RDP86T01017R000303160001-7
March, however, when the regime was forced to use some
of the forces deployed in Nazian to respond to
insurgent activity in Paktia and Vardak Provinces, the
insurgents took advantage of the pullout to escalate
attacks. Over the next two months, the guerrillas
increased their strength in the valley sufficiently to
seize five border posts, according to the US Embassy in
Islamabad. Resistance forces were also able to
interdict several regime convoys and capture some
ammunition stocks.
Prospects
The Afghan regime probably will not resume major
operations in the Nazian Valley in the near future.
The surge of guerrilla activity throughout Afghanistan
during the summer has strained the Army's capabilities
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to respond to a widespread threat, and resistance
pressure in other sections of Nangarhar and Paktia
Provinces has put regime forces there on the
defensive. To undertake another major offensive in the
Nazian Valley, the poorly trained and understrength
Afghan military will need substantial assistance from
Soviet forces. Even then, a large-scale offensive
would probably only provide fleeting control of the
valley.
Events in the Nazian Valley underscore the Soviet and
Afghan Government's inability to pacify permanently
important border areas. Insurgent activity can be
stifled only in the few instances where the regime can
afford to station large units.
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Top Secret
ILLEGIB
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