AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000302890001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 5, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302890001-8 -
/LC
Directorate of
Intelligence
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79-81 IMC/CB
DATE
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AfghanistanSituation Report
5 August 1986
-Tup-Seeret---
NESA M 86-20I21CX
ciS(217611-1210067CX
Copy
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302890001-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302890001-8
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
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CONTENTS
NEW SURGE IN FIGHTING
2
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A major Soviet and
Afghan operation
is under way
south of Kabul in
Vardak Province, and guerrilla
activity increased
in
nandahar,
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ASSESSMENT
OF REFUGEE FOOD PROGRAMS IN PAKISTAN
2
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A joint team from the World Food Program and
the
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United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees noted
some improvement in Pakistani programs for Afghan
refugees but recommended against increased support
next year.
SOVIET AMMUNITION STORAGE FACILITIES VULNERABLE
Recent damage to the Soviet ammunition facility at
Bagram airfield demonstrates how poor storage and
handling procedures can multiply the effects of
even a minor accident.
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MEDIA DEVELOPMENTS IN KABUL
4
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The Afghan regime intends to construct
a new
radio
station and three new television studios
in
Kabul
to increase its propaganda Potential.
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IN BRIEF
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PERSPECTIVE 25X1
MEDIA HABITS AMONG AFGHAN REFUGEES TN PAKISTAN'S NORTH-WEST 6
FRONTIER PROVINCE CAMPS
Interviews with Afghan refugees living in camps in
Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province in late
1984 indicate that radio programs are the main
source of information. Fighting in Afghanistan is
the primary news interest. Most refugees listen
to Radio Pakistan regularly, with BBC thp most
widely heard foreign station.
This document was Prenared by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis.
5 August 1986
NESA m 86-20123CX
sovA m 86-20067CX
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5 August 1986
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NEW SURGE IN FIGHTING
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A major Soviet and Afghan combat operation is under way
south of Kabul near Shevkhabad in Vardak Province.
elements of two
soviet motorized rifle regiments, two airborne
regiments, and an artillery regiment departed the
Kabul-Bagram area after 21 July for the operations. In
addition, elements of the Soviet independent motorized
rifle regiment at Ghazni and at least four comoanies of
air assault tromps from Gardevz also may he
Participating. The US Embassy in Kabul stated that air
activity south of Kabul was unusually heavy last
week. According to the Emhassv, a Soviet and Afghan
convoy that was attacked hy the guerrillas on 31 July
en route to Vardak Province suffered numerous
casualties.
The US Embassy also
reports "siege
-like"
conditions
in Oandahar.
ASSESSMENT
F000
PROGRAMS
OF REFUGEE
IN PAKISTAN
A joint team from the World Food Program and the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees recently issued
Preliminary findings of its study of Afghan refugee
food programs in Pakistan. According to the US Embassy
in Islamabad, the team described the nutritional status
of the refugees as "adequate." The findings
acknowledged that the Pakistani Government is
correcting some irregularities, particularly in
distribution of food to family heads in Baluchistan,
and in phasing out support for refugees in Peshawar who
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are unaffiliated with a camo. The team, however,
reasserted its previous claim that official Pakistani
figures for registered refugees are too high and said
that it would not recommend increased levels of food
aid for 1987.
COMMENT: The tone of this year's joint assessment was
less confrontational than last year's and orohahly is
designed to encourage Pakistan's continuing reform of
the refugee Programs. Although the report will benefit
Islamabad by easing donors' concerns over mismanagement
and corruption, the team's judgment that refugees are
adequately nourished in conjunction with the continuing
controversy over the actual number of refugees will
weaken Islamabad's chances of obtaining increased food
donations.
SOVIET AMMUNITION STORAGE FACILITIES VULNERABLE
A series of explosions in July damaged the Soviet
Bagram airfield,
An estimated 3,000 25X1
of ammunition were destroyed. Insur ent
evidently initiated the explosions. 25X1
ammunition storage facility at
metric
rock t
tons
fire
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COMMENT: Soviet forces routinely violate safety
regulations for ammunition storage and handling
In
addition, the Soviets store excessive amounts of
ammunition in depots. Under such conditions, the
effects of a detonation are likely to be greatly
magnified, and even a minor accident could threaten
destruction of an entire denot.
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MEDIA DEVELOPMENTS IN KABUL
The Afghan regime finalized contracts on 30 July for
the construction of three new television studios and a
new radio complex in Kabul, according to official Kabul
radio. The new facilities will cost more than 1.7
billion afghanis--approximately $33.5 million at the
official exchange rate--and the Soviet Union and German
Democratic Republic will provide credits totaling about
$15 million. The facilities are scheduled to he
completed before 1991.
COMMENT: The expansion of communications facilities in
Afghanistan will facilitate pronaaanda broadcasts that
the aovernment is using to attempt to broaden its base
of sunport. The regime, for example, tried to enhance
acceptance of the change in leadership from Babrak
Karmal with a media blitz Portraying his successor,
Nalihullah, as a \mono, vigorous leader. Given
Afghanistan's low literacy rate--less than 15 percent--
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radio, in particular,
Printed matter.
IN BRIEF
-- Continuing fighting
the surrounding
will reach
a larger audience than
'Ali Kheyl has devastated
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near
countryside.
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Most of the
agricultural base has been destroyed, forcing the
local residents to flee and the insurgents to bring
in food from Pakistan. Local resistance forces
receive little support from Peshawar, and
5 August 1986
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increasingly costly Purchases of food are often
financed with Private funds.
Citing unnamed security Problems, the Afghan regime
has delayed indefinitely the arrival of an
International Committee of the Red Cross (Tru7)
mission in Kabul, according to the US Embassy in
Islamabad. In April the regime said it would
permit the ICRC--which was forced to leave Kabul in
1982--to reestablish its medical assistance program
there and to monitor treatment of political
prisoners.
The French humanitarian organization Medecins Sans
Frontieres (MSF) is preparing to send three medical
teams inside Afghanistan, according to the US
Consulate in Peshawar. MSF withdrew about 25
medical personnel inside Afghanistan in late 1985
because of objections by the Jamiat-i-Islami to
female medical personnel on the teams. The Jamiat
has ostensibly relented in the objection, but MSF
officials are still uncertain as to how its coed
teams will be received inside Afghanistan. MSF
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doctors have
care for
to provide
Afghans.
Afghan regime
been an
insurgents and
rudimentary
important source of medical
civilians and have helped
medical training to
are rounding up Youths for
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forces
military service
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some 300 were Pressed into
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relatively
large number of
service in June.
IPie
impressments is
likely, however,
to he offset
somewhat
by increased
desertions
by disgruntled
conscripts.
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MEDIA HABITS AMONG AFGHA
FRONTIER PROVINCE CAMPS
By the Office of Research, USIA
ES IN PAKISTAN'S NORTH-WEST
Interviews with Afghan refugees living in camps in
Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) show
that about half of the refugees want to get news of
world events and that radio is their major source for
such information. Pashto programs, rather than nari or
Farsi, are the most widely heard radio broadcasts in
the camps. Afghan refugees who listen to Voice of
America (VOA), RRC, and Oeutsche Welle Ho so mainly to
hear accurate news. Although the Soviets attempt to
lam VOA broadcasts to this region, most VOA listeners
in the NWFP camos usually find reception clear.
This description of the media habits of Afghans in the
NFWP camps is based on interviews in late 1984 with 613
Afghan refugees aged 15 or older. The survey was
conducted by an independent commercial firm and
sponsored jointly by the US Information Agency and the
BBC. Survey results have been weighted to represent
the adult Afghan refugee camp Population in the NWFP.
Findings can not be generalized to all Afghan refugees
or to the Afghan population.
Description of the Afghan Refugees in NWFP Camps
Almost all of the refugees in the NWFP camos--87
Percent?left Afghanistan after the 1979 invasion. Of
these, two-thirds left by the end of 1980. About 80
percent of adult Afghans in the NWFP refugee camps have
no formal education and about 70 nercent are
illiterate. All adult refugees there understand
Pashto, and 98 percent speak Pashto rather than Dari or
Farsi at home. About one-third of them understand nari
or Farsi.
General Interest in News and Radio Listening
Almost half the adult Afghan refugees in the NWFP camns
are "very" interested in ohtainina news about world
events, and one-fourth are "quite" interested,
according to the survey. Only 20 percent have little
or no interest. Most refugees with some education are
very interested in getting news of world events.
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Because most Afghans in these
radio and word-of-mouth are the
news. Sixty-four Percent of NWFP
often turn to radio for world
depend on it for news about Afghanistan.
count on word-of-mouth to hear
camps are illiterate,
major sources of
camps refugees most
news, and 63 percent
They also
news (20 percent for
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world news, 27 percent for news of Afghanistan). In
view of the low literacy rate, newsnaners are used by
only 1 to 2 percent. Refugees with some education rel
almost exclusively on radio, while those with no
education rely heavily on hearsay for their news.
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Three-fourths of the Afghan refugees in the camns
have
access to a radio set. Fifty-nine Percent either own
or have access to a set which receives both short and
medium wave transmissions. Almost all educated
refugee
19 pr
ent of the sample) have access to
radio.
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About two-thirds
of adult refugees listen to radio once
a week or more. Almost twice as many men as women, and
educated as uneducated, are regular radio listeners.
Fifty-five percent
of Afghan refugees
most often listen
to radio at home.
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Most adult camp
refugees listen
to Pakistan's national
radio station, Radio Pakistan, which broadcasts in all
the local languages. It is heard regularly hy 61
percent of Afghan camp residents surveyed; almost all
of those listen in Pashto and
-fifth of them
also listen in Dari or Farsi.
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Foreign Radio Listening
The BBC has the largest audience
in the NWFP Afghan
refugee camps, with 54 percent of the adults listening
to it once a week Or more. Almost all of those tune in
regularly to the daily 45-minute BRr Pashto
broadcast. About half of the
RBC's audience also
listens to Farsi broadcasts.
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Tehran's Voice of the Islamic
Republic of Iran has
total regular audience of 34 percent of the refugees;
it broadcasts two hours of Pashto programs daily.
Radio Afghanistan
from Kabul reaches 28 nercent of
the
refugees in Pashto.
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VOA is fourth among
foreign stations broadcasting
to
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the region, with a total regular audience of 23 percent
among Afghan refugees in the NWFP camps. Almost all of
the VOA audience in the camps listens to Pashto
hroadcasts which are on the air for two hours daily.
Program Preferences of Listeners to Western Stations
Most Western-radio listeners, when asked why they turn
to foreign stations for the news, say they seek
accurate news, especially on the situation in
Afghanistan. Some listeners also want detailed world
news or to compare foreign and local accounts of the
news. Almost all listeners to every language service
(over 80 percent of the VOA, BBC, or Deutsche Welle
audience) are very interested in news of the fighting,
with news of Pakistan, Iran, and the Muslim world of
next greatest interest, followed by other news of
Afghanistan and the USSR. News of Western countries
rated last oi of news tonics that refugees
were given.
Listener Evaluations of Western Broadcasts
Afghans in NWFP camos who listen to Western radio
evaluate the stations Positively. Half or more of VOA,
BBC, and Deutsche Welle listeners consider the
station's local and regional news coverage excellent,
and very few consider the news coverage only fair or
Poor. In addition, almost all are satisfied with the
station's credibility.
VOA signal monitoring indicates some intense -jamming oc
broadcasts to this region that may cause reception to
he fair or Poor. Specifically, it has been reported
that reception of VOA Farsi to the region is good,
Pashto is fair, and Dari is poor,
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000302890001-8