DEVELOPMENT OF CIA STRATEGIC PLAN, 1983-1993

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00656R000100080011-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 8, 2011
• Sequence Number: 11
• Content Type: MEMO

STAT
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R?Ui'ihlt3 14~1D ftECC~~tD SHEET
STAT
STAT
SUBJECT: (Optional
.Development of CIA Strategic Plan.
1983 - 1993 -
Harry E. Fitzwater.
DDA
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COMMENTS (Number each comment to show. from whom
to whom. Draw o line across column often each comment.)
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S-E-C-R-E-T ' ~~ ~ ~~3~
MEMORANDUI~i FOR: Director of Communications
Director of Data Processing
Director of Finance
Director of Information Services
Director of Logistics
Director of Medical Services
Director of Personnel
Director of Security
Director of Training and Education
FROM: Harry E. Fitzwater
Deputy Director for Administration
SUBJECT: Development of CIA Strategic Plan, 1983-1993
REFERENCE: Multiple Addressee Memo from DDA, dated 28 Sept '83,
Same Subject
1. The initial phases for the development of the CIA Strategic
Plan, 1983-1993, are nearing completion. As you know, this year's
planning cycle is much shorter and is concentrating on changes to the
1982-1992 Strategic Plan.
2. In preparation for our Directorate participation, please have
your office representative review last year's strategic plan
(BYE-020-83), as well as the attached copy of the Long-Range
Plan--Phase IV Support Capabilities, which was prepared as part of
last year's strategic planning process. While we will not update the
Phase IV paper, we will update the CIA Strategic Plan.
3, of my staff will invite your representative
to participate in a Directorate session to review changes made by the
DI, D0, and DS&T in the initial phases of this process and to
coordinate our contribution to this important effort.
REGRADED UNCLASSIFIED
4JHEi~ SEPARATED FROM
ATTACHMENT
H y E. F~ ater
E`
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LONG-RANGE PLAN-PHASE IV
SUPPORT CAPABILITIES
DIRECTORATE OF ADMINISTRATION
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY :................:.........................................:..........
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A. Introduction .............
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B. Resource Strategy ............................................................................._:.... l
C. Resource Concerns
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II. ENVIRONMENT 1982-1992
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A. From a National Perspective
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B. From an Agency Perspective .
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C. Directorate Perspective .......................................................................... 4
III. SUPPORT TO THE PHASE III CAPABILITIES STUDY .................. 5
A. Office of Data Processing ..........: .....................................:..................... 6
B. Office of Communications .................................................................... 7
C. Office of Training & Education ............................................................ 9
D. Office of Security .............................:............ 9
E. Office of Finance ..............:...._.........................................:......:.....:....... " 10
F. Office of Logistics .......................... 10
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G. Office of Medical Services .....:.............................................................. 11
H. _ Office of Information Services ..............................................................: 11
IV_ RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS
V., F~ 1Ti IRF. DIRECTIONS-THEMES ................:.......:...........::...::......... 13
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. LONG-RANGE PLAN-P~IASE IV
SUPPORT CAPABILITIES
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DIRECTORATE OF ADMINISTRATION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. Introduction
This paper discusses the resource strategy of the Directorate of Administration
(DA) in support of the Agency in general and the Phase III capabilities studies
specifically. In this study, we have reviewed our major concerns, the environment
.which we believe will be.confronting us, and the support resources which will be re-
quired to carry out the activities contained in the Phase III nlannin~ effort. We have
provided for specific needs to support an Agency
Beyond the specific require-
ments of the current planning exercise, a num er o independent themes, directions,
and initiatives have been incorporated which we believe will meet. the challenges of
the future in providing timely, effective services in support of the Agency's mission.
While it is recognized that the focus of the capabilities planning papers should
not center on resource needs, the resource deficiencies of the past are beginning to im-
pact adversely on present Directorate capabilities-and they will- have a more severe
impact on the Directorate's future objectives if this trend is not abruptly reversed.
The underlying tone of the five capabilities papers is that extensive support will be re-
quired in an increasingly sophisticated, complex environment. The demands placed on
the DA by an expanded, computer-dependent, highly technical Agency in .the
immediate future will be enormous:
With the exception of communications, which is currently undergoing a long
delayed recapitalization effort, the whole Directorate support infrastructure requires
a large concentrated program of capital investment to keep pace with changing and
expanding requirements. We must revitalize the Agency's support base so that it is
capable of responding to the additional tasking which will inevitably occur.
In' this treatment, support is defined as fixed plant, equipment, and resources.
While management strategies may be developed to postpone or defer these fixed
costs, we should. keep in mind that they can be deferred, but not avoided. According
to the popular commercial line, you can pay no~v or pay later, but you must pay.
B. Resource Strategy
We plan to pursue the following strategy for the acquisition and management of
Directorate resources over the next ten years:
1. Remedy existing shortfalls in support of Agency programs.
2. Recapitalize and modernize. equipment and facilities.
3. Obtain adequate DA resources to match Agency growth.
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structure. In conjunction with this we are concerned with the acquisition of adequate
training resources to prepare our employees for an increasingly automated environ-
ment. Additionally, within the Directorate we must place heavy emphasis bn
developing and improving our automated systems .in order to improve productivity
and responsiveness to customer needs. And last but certainly not least we must
acquire adequate space to house the forecast increases in personnel. Assuming that
the new building ' a roved and built,. we will have space in Headquarters building
(new and old) for people. Although the growth, between now and 1988
will be accommodated in the new building, it will not be ready for occupancy until
..1987. Consequently, we are currently attempting to solve the problem of providing
adequate space for growth from 1983-1988.
II. ENVIRONMENT 1982-1992
A. From a National Perspective
Our current environment is known as the Information Era. We have already seen
..such terms as "information explosion" used to describe the-huge volume of data that
pervades our environment. American society. is moving into aservice-oriented.
economic structure which has the computer as its major tool. People in our society,
especially younger people, are adapting to computers and, more importantly,
adapting the computer's ability to solve an impressive list of problems. Society wants
the computer to be the tool. that removes the drudgery from many of its tasks.
We do not believe that the totally paperless office will come into: common use
during the next ten years. Although the technology will be available, the limited
ability of industry and government to provide surge funding to replace current
systems and equipment, or to quickly modify current operating procedures and
retrain workers will constrain the evolution towards a paperless.office society. This
will allow for a planned and orderly evolution, which will not only affect information
handling equipment but our management and organizational structures as well. A
major challenge in this environment will be to budget for and execute purchases of
new technology which can be readily integrated into current systems with a minimum
of disruption. "
B. From an Agency Perspective
The Agency's main challenge during the next ten years will be to do a better job
of collecting, analyzing, and producing intelligence. To do so will require adequate re-
sources to modernize its current capabilities as`. well as additional resources for
enhanced capabilities to support new tasking and expanded requirements. The critical
need for space to house additional personnel and machine applications has been
identified. New tasking and expanded requirements will require that significant
resources. be spent on information handling systems. Increased personnel levels and
new technology will cause a substantial increase in training needs. Some of the more
attractive aspects of overseas assignment will continue to decline. A major factor in
this decline will be the ever-increasing security threat to our people and facilities
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overseas. Finally, keeping pace with .state-of-the-art technology will require an
escalating share of our resources.
By the late 1980's we foresee an Agency analytical environment in which ADP
services will be central to all productive activities. Document preparation will be
accomplished by using both data and word processing technologies. Printing,
publishing, and the coordination of document drafts will be.done over networks that
interconnect all user terminals with each other and directly to the major printing sys-
tems of the Agency. A terminal will be at the work station of virtually every analyst.
The integration of word and data processing via networking will make it possible for
the analyst to accomplish all major activities associated with the production of
intelligence from a single terminal. The entire process will be dependent upon systems
that are responsive to the user and absolutely reliable. This presents an extraordinary
support challenge in terms of being able to guarantee that major services. are never
interrupted.
? The next decade will require the Agency to recruit, train, and keep on board an .
appropriate mix of high caliber, dedicated personnel and ensure that they have a suit-
able working environment. The new recruit of tomorrow will be today's computer-lit-
erate young person. Both the people and the tasks of the Agency of the future will be
pushing toward the near paperless environment that is currently being forecast.
C. Directorate Perspective
During the decade of the eighties, support functions of the Agency will change in
more dramatic fashion than they have in our entire past 35-year history. These
changes will be the direct result of the development and adoption of data and word
processing systems in contrast to 'traditional support mechanisms. The driving force
will be the adoption of the new technology within the Agency, by the rest of the Fed-
eral government and by private industry. We foresee that within the decade the laws
of the Federal government regarding accounting, procurement, Federal wages and
retirement, anal most other Federal administration will change the definition,
organization, and functioning of future support management systems.
Technology will present the opportunity for dramatically improving the produc-
tivity of virtually everyone. Electronic mail systems will move correspondence
throughout the Agency in seconds rather than days. The ever-decreasing cost of
storing data magnetically will increase the movement from paper files and into
electronic filing cabinets. Directorate endeavors will involve the development of
systems that are capable of being used in.the office right from the desk of the analyst.
Developing these systems will be complicated by rapid advancements in new
developments in ADP technology. The most significant advances anticipated are
increased miniaturization of hardware components, increased central processing unit
(CPU) speeds, faster, higher-density peripheral devices, improved network architec-
ture, greater reliance on interactive applications, improved graphics capability, high-
quality printing, and increased use of personal "computers. Use of on-line storage
devices such as direct access storage devices (DASDs) also will expand. Furthermore,
improved hardware and .software will significantly increase the amount of on-line
information directly accessible to users of Directorate services.
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Major technological advances in communications are expected. Use of remote
terminals located at great distances from the computer and eventually supporting
users not riow being serviced, will substantially increase, as will the use of direct com-
munications among computers. By 1988, the services available from the backbone
network will include the potential for narrative traffic, bulk data service, secure voice,
teleconferencing, and facimile. Any service will be provided error free with crypoto-
graphic protection. In fact, literally anything that can be converted to a digital signal
can be transported by the future network.
Probably the most significant growth in the communications arena during this
period will be in the domestic network. It is a goal that by the end of the decade most
electrical cables coming .into the Agency will be disseminated in electronic form
rather than by paper. In addition, much of the operational and administrative
information distributed in the Agency will be in electronic form.
Training's role will become more important in dealing with the rapid changes in
our workforce and the environment. A larger diverse workforce in an automated
setting will require changes in the way we communicate and make decisions.
Management analysis of jobs and their .organizational relationships will become
increasingly important along with the process of selection of employees to fill the posi-
tions. The Directorate will need instructors to assist Agency line managers in
applying concepts such as decision analysis. We will see an increased use of officers
from components outside the Directorate to fill training positions with specific
content expertise, and an increased need for training careerists to seek experiences
through rotational assignments throughout the .Agency. While operational training
will increase in volume and some of the tools used by the case officer will change, the
methods of training which have .been tested and proven through the Agency's history
will not change significantly.
The accelerated use of mini, micro and even personal computers and the
exploitation of laser, bubble memory, holographic, and ,fiber optic technologies will
challenge our ability to identify and correct vulnerabilities associated with. these
powerful and ubiquitous information tools. Current distinctions between microcom-
puters, microprocessors; word processors, office machines, computer terminals, and
communication terminals are based more on their specialized uses than on their
technological characteristics. During the next decade the already blurred distinctions
between these types of devices will virtually disappear. Typical office machines at the
end of the next decade will have the capabilities of all of the devices and will have
voice; graphic, and data integration. Future operational environments will require
that access to Agency data bases be extended outward to the end user, overseas as
well as domestically, even perhaps to non-Agency entities. Access limitations,
compartmentation, and ever-increasing requirements for accountability and audit
trails, however, will severely tax the entire Directorate's ability to maintain a secure
environment.
III. SUPPORT TO THE PHASE III CAPABILITIES STUDY
The information presented in Phase .III does not accomodate a detailed,
quantitative support response. We therefore address the papers from a broad, long-
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range perspective, and define resources on a scale of general order of magnitude. The
specifics of actual implementation will need much more detailed study.
A great deal of specific information is requlans.tOperpamegprc~esoescalate and
planning estimates and annexes to operationa p
availability of whatever is required from the commercial market whether it be things
or services like transportation also vary:. Consequently, it is essential that all support
components be involved in the conceptual as well as the planning stage of _new
.initiatives.
A. Office of Data Processing (ODP)
There are many requirements which will impact the Office of Data Processing
level of effort over the next ten years. For the most part, these are not new
requirements. Only the magnitude and urgency will change. Project SAFE_ t~
backbone for :ADP support for analysts in the DI, is expected to support ~~
analysts. The SAFE concept has been designed and fund n Will causes a sign ficant
addition of more analysts mentioned in the capabilities p
increase in the SAFE workload and terminal requirements. However, it would be
premature to attempt to discuss additional requirements for SAFE support in the
midst of efforts associated with the redirection he feasbili yandccost of the needed
required to.analyze the impact and to determine
SAFE system enhancements.
While SAFE is intended to support DI analysts, the implementation of office
automation capability has more general applicability across the entire Agency. The
Agency has competitively selected a contractor, Wang Laboratories, for an Agency-
wide standard word processor and office automation system. The contract includes
Wang support for initial surveys, maintenance, and training. It is anticipated that
with sufficient component funds, this effort could be expanded to whatever level is
necessary for additional Agency analysts, technicians, and clerical personnel.
During the early 1970's, ODP was overtaken by accelerated user demands for
data processing capability. Central processing capacity was woefully inadequate to
cope with demands for service. Extraordinary efforts were undertaken in the mid-
1970's to acquire new computer hardware to address the mushrooming requirements.
The efforts were successful. In add rocurementvstrategy and defense became the
additional computing resources, the p
model for subsequent successful acquisitions of computer hardware. Since the mid-
1970's, ODP has managed to just keep pace with increased user demand.
However, ODP's capability to support user requirements for new applications
software development has fallen behind demand levels. Aseven-year period of zero
increases in numbers of applications programmers (ignoring a modest complement of
four staff positions for the TADS project) 1 cations de e opment has developedwo,to
three-year backlog of requirements for app
ODP is addressing the need for increased applications software development in
three ways: obtaining additional personnel slots for applications programmers,
.increasing the use of contract .development, and by helping the users to help
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themselves when feasible: The newly established information center will be the focus
of efforts to provide the users with assistance in simple data processing tasks-
programming, data base manipulation, simple graphics, etc.-which will help free
ODP's professional programmers and allow them to concentrate on complex
problems.
Two more specific categories of support requirements continue to receive
increa"sing attention-modeling capability and computer graphics. Requirements for
increased use of sophisticated mathematical models may develop such that a new
scientific computing capability will be required. Such models are most efficiently run
on a computer designed to optimize processing oriented toward scientific and
engineering problems rather than the general-purpose computers employed by ODP..
A new scientific computing capability could be expected to entail costs of ten. to
twenty million dollars for hardware alone: And there will be a need for an additional
thirty-five new ODP staff positions to support the activity as well as sufficient
additional computer grade space.
The use of computer graphics can provide dividends in the areas of presentation
graphics, publication graphics, analytical support, imagery analysis, and computer
aided design. While individual components with specific needs such as cartographers
make very good use of computer graphics capability, we do not offer easy-to-use
capability for the general ODP user community. Demand can be expected to grow for
.such capability; and indeed, the potential and promise of computer graphics
capability as demonstrated with such systems as CAMSTACK, foster continuing
new interest in exploiting the technology.
Additional requirements include the need for extended automated publication
facilities. As more and. more of the Agency's information holdings are converted to
electronic form, there will be increasing demand to go straight to publication in that
form. More electronic paths to more ETECS-like capabilities will be required.
We must also develop new means for data archiving for storage and backup. A
requirement for reliably storing huge volumes of electronic data has existed for some
time. This requirement will take on new importance as disaster plans are more
carefully formulated and detailed. But technology has not yet quite, evolved to the
point to permit serious planning to satisfy that requirement. We will continue to .
monitor technological developments in this area. .
A growing and increasingly sophisticated customer population which depends
more and more on data processing to accomplish the daily workload ,demands
increased availability and reliability. ODP systems availability (which the users see
through their terminal) is presently 97%, so there is a three percent margin for
improvement. But that three percent improvement (nearly three percent-we cannot
reach 100 percent) will require improved hardware technology, redundant equipment,
improved telecommunications, reduced .software errors, and reduced procedural
errors. ODP will improve systems availability; but progress will be difficult and slow.
B. Office of Communications (OC)
The thrust of the planning papers is quite clear; they describe an ever-expanding
customer work force which must use progressively more modern techniques. Techni-
cal tools which multiply the customers' effectiveness will also challenge the Office of
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