MILITARY THOUGHT (USSR): METHODS FOR DETERMINING THE COMBAT CAPABILITIES OF THE TROOPS OF AN ARMY IN AN OFFENSIVE OPERATION THROUGH THE USE OF COMPUTERS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP10-00105R000201650001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 24, 1976
• Content Type: MEMO

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Intelligence Information Special Report
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MILITARY THOUGIT (USSR) :
24 February 19"6
Methods for Determining the
Combat Capabilities of the Troops
of an Army in an Offensive Operation
Through the Use of Computers
N
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Methods for Determining the Combat Capabilities of
the Troops of an Army in an Offensive Operation
Through the Use of Computers
Y
Colonel I. Yeremin
The fulfilment of the tasks assigned to an army in an offensive
operation is achieved by destroying the main groupings of the opposing
enemy with nuclear weapons and heavy fire of other means, by the rapid
advance of tank and motorized rifle troops to a great depth and by
destroying the enemy in detail. The degree to which these tasks are
fulfilled is determined mainly by the capabilities of the troops to inflict
that amount of damage on the enemy which had been established for the
specific conditions of the situation. As is known, these capabilities are
based on the destructive capabilities of nuclear and chemical weapons, i
tanks, antitank means, artillery, air defense means and the aviation
supporting the army.
The above-listed capabilities are determined by the composition of the
army troops, the level to which they are manned and equipped with
personnel, weapons and combat equipment, and by the number of nuclear,
chemical and conventional weapons. They also will largely depend on the
capabilities of the army to detect the enemy grouping, on the mobility of
the troops, on the level of training of personnel, their combat experience
and their political, morale and physical state, and also on the
effectiveness of various forms of support for troop combat actions.
The currently existing methods of determining combat capabilities
consist of making certain manual calculations using standards, tables and
graphs for reference. For this reason these calculations produce
approximate results, and then only for each of the branch arms and means of
combat individually.
The main shortcoming of existing methods is that they do not make
allowance for enemy counteraction while the troops are fulfilling combat
tasks, and only to a certain extent make it possible to judge the potential
capabilities of the combat means of the army to inflict destruction on the
enemy. 50X1-HUM
The combat capabilities of the troops of an army in an offensive
operation may be most reliably calculated only by carefully taking into
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account the composition and quality of the troops of the opposing sides,
the form of their combat actions, the methods and sequence of their use of
combat means and the optimum use of forces, means and resources, and also
by necessarily making allowances for enemy counteraction.
This task may best be accomplished by using a two-sided mathematical
model. For this purpose a diagram is made which represents in basic
outline the processes of an offensive operation of a tank army; a task is
then assigned.
The diagram and the assignment of a task. There are two opposing
sides: the troops of a combined-arms (tank) army on the offensive and the
troops of the opposing enemy grouping, each pursuing mutually exclusive
goals. Each of the sides strives to fulfil its own combat task and to
prevent the other side from fulfilling its task. The combat actions of
both sides are characterized by the combat of all forces and means at their
command: rocket troops, tanks, antitank means, artillery, aviation, air
defense means, etc.
An offensive operation of an army includes a number of engagements
(battles) of its troops, interrelated by a common goal. For the specific
conditions of an operational-tactical situation, each of these engagements
is characterized by a certain composition and number of the troops from
both sides participating in it, by the operational disposition of the
troops, by the method and sequence of using various combat means, and by
other factors. During the course of the engagement (battle) the sides
deliver strikes by various means in a definite sequence typical of a given
situation and in accordance with the decisions made. Each of the sides,
when delivering any strike, tries to allocate its combat resources against
reconnoitered enemy targets in the optimum manner, i.e., in such a way as
to inflict the most damage on the enemy while using a minirr..an of means.
During the engagement both sides will suffer losses in forces and
means. At the same time, during combat actions they are replenished by
receiving or recovering weapons, combat equipment and personnel.
A command usually has sufficiently complete information about all that
pertains to its troops. An army staff also has corresponding informar;nn
on enemy targets based on reconnaissance data. As a whole, in every 50X1-HUM
engagement (battle) of an offensive operation the quantitative and
qualitative characteristics of the troops of the army and the enemy are
considered to be known, i.e., their table of organization, location,
dimensions of occupied areas, level of manning and equipment, amount of
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protection, form of combat actions, length of time spent in one location,
availability of ammunition in the subunits, and technical specifications of
armament and combat equipment. Also known are the degree to which the
troops of both sides have been reconnoitered and the substance of their
intentions regarding actions in the engagement (battle): the sequence for
destroying the enemy, the axis on which the main efforts are concentrated,
the grouping of forces and means, the methods and sequence of using various
combat means and the nature of their maneuver.
The result of the engagement (battle) and operation as a whole is
quantitatively defined by the value of the losses of each side. Therefore,
the problem is to determine:
- the value of the damage sustained in one engagement (battle)
by enemy troops as a result of strikes by our army, making
optimum use of the means of destruction, and taking enemy
counteraction into account;
- the value of the damage sustained by the troops of our
army as a result of enemy strikes in the same engagement
(battle);
- the value of the damage sustained by the troops of each
side in several variants of the same engagement differing
from each other in the operational intentions of both
sides, and on this basis to select the best variant of
employing the forces and means of the army within the
limits of the engagement (battle) being researched;
- the total value of the losses inflicted on the enemy as a
result of all the engagements of the offensive operation,
when the optimum variants for using the combat means of our
army are selected for each engagement.
The method of solving the problem stated consists of the following.
An offensive operation is subdivided into a number of engagements
(battles), conventionally called stages, in the sequence in which they most
probably may occur during the operation. Each of these engagements is
researched on the model.
A certain interval of time (period) during which there occurs one
engagement or part of it is taken as the stage to be researched. During
this time the large units of an army carry out one combat task, and the
form of the actions of both sides does not undergo substantial charge.
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These stages may be:
- the negotiation of an enemy covering zone by divisions of the
army first echelon;
- the breakthrough of the forward defensive line to the entire
depth of the divisions of the enemy first echelon;
- the destruction of enemy reserves and accomplishment of
the task of the day by the divisions of the army first
echelon;
- the destruction of the divisions of the first echelon of the
enemy grouping in meeting engagements;
- the breakthrough of the enemy defensive line in the operational
depth, etc.
Each stage is spatially defined by the dimensions (in frontage and
depth) of that area in which the combat actions of the troops of our army
and the opposing enemy grouping are developing. The n'mber of stages is
assumed to equal the number of engagements, or even separate battles,
making up the offensive operation. For each of the stages there is a
corresponding specific operational-tactical situation: a specific number
and composition of the troops of.both sides, a form of their actions,
availability of different ammunition (resources), an amount of protection
for personnel, etc.
The installations to be researched during combat actions are assumed
to be those organic troop elements which operate in the different forms of
battle without, as a rule, splitting up, and which are positioned
relatively compactly on the terrain: missile batteries, tank and motorized
rifle battalions, artillery battalions, aircraft squadrons, antiaircraft
batteries, command posts, ammunition depots, etc.
A definite classification of the installations has been established
for the whole research process. In one class are placed those combat
installations which are similar in their nature, function and the tasks
they perform, even though they differ in operational-tactical
characteristics. An example of a variant for classifying combat
installations may be the following: class I installations -
operational-tactical and tactical missile batteries, nuclear artillery
batteries, cruise missile squadrons, subunits of delivery aircraft for
nuclear warheads; class II installations - the control posts of armies,
corps and divisions, aviation guidance (control) centers, and the control
posts of missile units; class III installations - tank battalions; class IV
installations - artillery battalions, etc. The number of classes and their
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composition are determined each time by the commander and staff of the army
or by the staff of the directing body of the war game. Within each class,
the installations are ranked in descending order of importance. An
assessment of their operational-tactical importance is made on the basis of
various characteristics. The following are assumed to be the most essential
characteristics of combat installations: their capability for affecting
enemy troops by one method or another (i.e., that which characterizes their
potential capabilities), readiness to carry out aggressive combat actions,
position within the operational disposition of the troops, and the form of
their combat actions.
Installations which are capable of inflicting damage on the enemy are
simultaneously defined as means of delivering a strike and as installations
representing targets for the enemy in the event of his counteraction.
Those which themselves cannot directly destroy the enemy, but which have a
considerable effect on the course of the battle, are defined only as
targets. These include: control and guidance posts; radar sites; repair,
medical and supply subunits; depots of various types, etc.
For each stage being researched, the combat installations of the
troops of our army and the enemy which may participate in the combat
actions are determined. For this purpose, the operational-tactical
situation is analyzed, and those installations which may be put into
operation in the stage being researched are determined. For the troops of
our army these include all installations in the operational disposition of
the army and the battle formations of the large units, and for the enemy -
installations located in territory bounded by the forward edge, the
boundary lines defining the army offensive zone, and by the prearranged
line determining the depth of the stage being researched, and also other
installations which, while not located immediately within the area of the
stage being researched, may participate in the combat.
For each stage there are several variants of the sequence in which the
troops of both sides enter an engagement (battle). This is based on the
intentions of both sides for the conduct of the combat actions, and on
their decisions regarding the methods and sequence of employing combat
means. The variants for our troops are prescribed, and those for the enemy
- prescribed or probable.
The value of the damage, which includes losses of those elements of a
combat installation which are necessary for it to function, is taken as a
criterion for evaluating the combat effectiveness of the installation.
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For example, the combat effectiveness of a tank (motorized infantry,
motorized rifle) battalion is determined by the presence within it of
companies, a command post and a rear.
When all of its tank (motorized rifle) companies are put out of
action, the battalion completely loses its combat effectiveness, and when
some of the companies are lost, it partially loses effectiveness. When the
command post or rear is put out of action, combat effectiveness is lost
temporarily.
The quantitative aspect of the outcome of an engagement (battle) is
defined as the total value of the losses of each of the participating
sides. In this category are included combat installations which have
completely lost their combat effectiveness (they are not taken into account
in subsequent combat in the given stage being researched) or have partially
lost effectiveness (they continue to carry on the battle, but with less
effectiveness).
To determine the value of the losses inflicted on enemy troops during
the stage being researched, a number of specific problems are solved on a
computer regarding the optimum employment of the nuclear 'chemical,
conventional) weapons allocated to the army troops in the given stage, and
regarding determination of the level of damage inflicted on the enemy as a
result of these strikes.
These problems also are used to determine the level of probable losses
which would be sustained by army troops as a result of action against them
by enemy means. In so doing, the information regarding targets and means
is changed: the means of delivering strikes are the enemy installations,
and the targets - the installations of the army troops. Accordingly, set
information defining the technical specifications of enemy combat means
also is used.
The order of priority for solving the above-named specific problems is
determined by the previously mentioned diagram of the sequence in which the
different combat means of both sides enter combat.
As each problem is solved, an answer is given regarding the number of
completely destroyed and partially damaged combat installations --
indicating the degree of damage to each, both for troops of our army and
for enemy troops. For the convenience of analysis the results are
differentiated by classes of combat installations. 5OX1-HUM
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Any specific problem, and the problem as a whole, concerning the stage
of combat actions being researched is solved when one of these conditions
is achieved:
enemy losses reach that level (established by the commander as a
result of evaluating the situation) at which his troops become
combat-ineffective;
the losses of the troops of our army reach the level at which
further conduct of offensive combat actions is impossible or
undesirable;
the army troops seize the designated area (line);
all ammunition (missiles, resources) allocated for the stage are
expended.
After the whole set of specific problems for a given stage has been
solved, the losses are totalled separately for each side and are
differentiated by classes of combat installations.
The total values of the losses sustained by both sides characterize
only a specific variant of troop actions in the given engagement which is
being researched. Other values of total losses will correspond to other
variants. There may be several such variants, since within each stage
being researched there may be several combat situations which are most
typical of the stage and which differ from each other in the operational
disposition of the troops, the axis on which the main efforts are
concentrated, the sequence in which strikes are delivered by the different
combat means, and the nature of the troop maneuver.
This problem is solved again for each variant, i.e., this whole set of
specific problems is solved in the same or different order depending on the
diagram of the sequence in which the means of destruction of both sides
enter the battle. The level of damage sustained by both sides is
determined for each variant. After the problem is solved in several
variants, the optimum variant of army troop actions in the engagement being
researched is selected, i.e., that variant in which, while carrying out the
assigned combat task, they would inflict maximum damage on the enemy and at
the same time would have minimum losses themselves. The method of
selecting the optimum variant is based on the minimax and maximin
principles from mathematical game theory.*
*See the article by Engineer Colonel A. Tatarchenko, Military Thought,
1966, No. S.
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The stated procedure for researching the combat actions of army troops
during one stage is also carried over to subsequent stages of combat
actions throughout the entire depth of the offensive operation. The
results of the calculations of each preceding stage (troop losses of each
side) is automatically carried over to the next stage as initial
information characterizing the troops who were operating. The problem as a
whole is solved when the research on all the stages of the offensive
operation is ccmpleted. Then the losses of each side are totalled
separately (differentiated by classes of installations) for all stages of
the research. The damage sustained by the enemy in the offensive operation
will define the capabilities of the army troops to inflict damage, based on
optimum use of its forces and means and aggressive counteraction.
An algorithm and program for solving the problem on a computer have
been developed in accordance with these methods. The methods and algorithm
make it possible to:
- obtain computational data on the level of damage inflicted on the
enemy by the army troops in individual engagements, and also the
total for the entire operation;
- determine the value of the possible losses which would be
sustained by the army troops as a result of enemy counteraction
in individual engagements and for the operation as a whole;
- on the basis of the computational data obtained, evaluate the
effectiveness of the combat action of the different branch arms
of the an and its means of destruction when they are used
optimally and when allowance is made for enemy counteraction both
in the offensive operation as a whole and in the individual
engagements;
- comprehensively research combat capabilities in each engagement,
solving the problem repeatedly for a number of the most
probable situations in a given engagement, situations which differ
from each other in the intentions of the sides regarding the conduct
of combat actions; on this basis select, for the troops of our army,
the optimum plan for conducting the engagement and make sound
conclusions regarding the advantages and shortcomings of different
methods of employing the means of destruction.
The volume and substance of the data obtained attest to the
desirability of making these calculations on a computer. Data on the
combat capabilities of troops, which would take enemy counteraction during
combat actions into account, and would be based on the optimum employment
of the means of destruction, are virtually impossible to obtain by means of
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manual calculations in view of the great expenditures of time required to
perform the calculating operations. Therefore, the proposed methods should
be used (when a computer is available) in the practical work of staffs in
exercises and war games, and in scientific research work.
In conclusion we believe it necessary to emphasize that the proposed
methods for using high-speed computers for calculations does not produce a
ready decision for an offensive operation. Their use will only make it
possible to provide the commander with the objective computational data
needed to evaluate the capabilities of army troops to inflict damage on the
enemy, to conserve the efforts and time of officers, and to free them to
carefully analyze all aspects of the operational situation and prepare
sound proposals for the decision.
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