SOVIET UNION FACES MAJOR TURNING POINT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000606020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 2, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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ARTICLE AP?:'?ED
ON PAGE I -q
CHEMICAL & ENGINEERING
2 AUGUST 1982
Soviet Union paces major turning pant
U.S.S.R. is beset by critical
problems, pressures for
major changes in political,
economic, industrial,
military, and social spheres
The Soviet Union is now at a major
turning point in its history, compa-
rable to the post-Lenin period in
the 1920s and the post-Stalin period
in the 1950s. Indeed, it faces critical
problems and choices, and pressures
for major changes, in almost every
sphere-political, economic, indus-
trial, military, energy, demographic,
technological, intellectual, and social
-according to a group of specialists
who are preparing a study on trends
and developments that will shape
Soviet policies over the next decade.
The study, organized by George-
town University's Center for Stra-
tegic & International Studies (CSIS)
and chaired by Robert Byrnes of
Indiana University, brings together
experts in Soviet and East European
studies from six private institutes
and 20 universities. Thirty-four par-
ticipants are from the U.S. and one
from the U.K. The study covers
seven disciplines and is aiming for
publication of its findings by next
spring. Members of the group out-
lined their conclusions to date at
two public sessions in Washington,
D.C., last month and in several in-
terviews with C&EN.
In the political arena, notes Sev-
eryn Bialer of Columbia University,
the U.S.S.R. in the next few years
must replace not only President
Leonid Brezhnev, but a whole core
leadership group of a similar ad-
vanced age who have worked to-
gether for a long time. A whole
agenda of problems and issues is
left unresolved by the Brezhnev
group, many qualitatively different
from any faced in the past.
In the already ongoing struggle
for the succession, points out George
Breslauer of the University of Cali-
fornia, Berkeley, there will be pres-
sure for choice of a strong leader,
such as former KGB head Yuri
Andropov, to get the country-espe-
cially the economy-moving again, sense of despair and lack of purpose,
perhaps with bold proposals for of nothing to believe in or hope for
change. Many officials, however, may in their society-a dramatic change
prefer a figure threatening fewer from the common Soviet belief that
changes and more amenable to col- life in the U.S.S.R. continually is
lective leadership, such as Politburo progressing toward a glorious future.
member Konstantin Chernenko. Making things even more difficult
Soviet economic and industrial are problems in the demographic
problems thus may become central sphere. Population growth has slowed
issues in the succession struggle. One greatly, leading to labor shortages.
area of continuing crisis is agricul- Moreover, the dominant ethnic Rus-
ture and its accompanying serious sians have a lower birth rate and
food shortages (aggravated by four probably will constitute less than
consecutive years of poor harvests). half the Soviet population by the
The Soviet economy in general year 2000. Meanwhile, Moslem Cen-
has Bowe greatly from its once high tral Asian groups-who are not well
annual growth res onto b%m located or well qualified to supply
gross national pro uc , points out industrial and military manpower-
Male . GINP grew on o in IgFr- make up a growing proportion of
Industrial output rose just 2o in the population (15 to 20% now) and
and 2.91/c.. in 1980, compared to show increasing ethnic nationalism.
an average of 6.6% a year in -bb, As if this were not enough, the
o in io in 1971 -To, decline of the Soviet Union's East
n o in 1976-80, according to European "empire" will create many
Central Intelligence Agency i ures. problems for the U.S.S.R. in the
emica production has shown a 1980s, according to Bialer and to
similar decline, CIA finds, risin on v Andrzej Korbonski of the University
o in 198com are to a five- of California, Los Angeles. East Eu-
year an goal or 5.5 to 6o a year in rope has changed from an economic
by contrast, chemical out- and military asset to an increasing
put rose 1211b a year in 1961-65 8.9% economic burden to the Soviets, and
in 1966-iU, 5. o in 1971751' and also will become a military burden,
3. o in 1976-80. Bialer believes. Furthermore, most
s e economy stagnates, living
standards are declining. Soviet au-
thorities thus are endangering one
of their major sources of mass sup-
port and legitimacy-their ability to
deliver a rising standard of living.
Furthermore, prospects have de-
clined for social mobility (rising in
the socioeconomic system), formerly
a relatively easy matter.
Soviet leaders may be less able to
cope with this challenge because of
a progressive weakening of social
control in Soviet society. There is a
"decline in civic morale," notes Gail
Lapidus of the University of Cali-
fornia, Berkeley-a decline in opti-
mism, and cynicism about the abil-
ity of leaders to deliver on their
promises. Social disintegration is
spreading-as expressed in acceler-
ating incidences of alcoholism, ab-
senteeism from work, crime, black
marketeering, family breakdowns,
and corruption. And, explains Sidney
Monas of the University of Texas,
several Soviet writers and other in-
tellectuals express an increasing
Soviet industrial, chemical
growth has slowed
a Preliminary figures. b For four months, based
on official Soviet statistics. Note: All figures except
for 1982 are based on Central Intelligence Agency
estimates. giving lower results than official Soviet
statistics because of postulated upward bias in So-
viet figures, Sources: Central Intelligence Agency,
U.S. Department of Commerce
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of East Europe's leaders belong to
the Brezhnev generation, and there
will be several succession crises in
the next few years.
The Soviets will try to limit the
Polish damage and prevent similar
outbreaks elsewhere by tightening
controls, Korbonski believes. But it
will be difficult since conditions sim-
ilar to Poland's exist in other East
European countries. All are suffer-
ing declining rates of growth, agri-
cultural production problems, and
have huge hard currency debts.
A basic feature of current Soviet
economic difficulties, Bialer points
out, is that in the past the U.S.S.R.
possessed "an economy of mobiliza-
tion," relying on massive inputs of
capital, labor, resources, and land to
increase production. Now this is no
longer possible, and the Soviets must
switch from an economy of exten-
sive development to one of inten-
sive development-focusing, for
instance, on diffusion of technology
and increases in productivity. They
are totally unprepared to do this, he
says. Indeed, productivity has been
declining for several years.
A central result of slower Soviet
economic growth, explains economist
Robert Campbell of Indiana Univer-
sity, is creation of a conflict over
allocation of the more limited re-
sources among three claimants-con-
sumer consumption, industrial in-
vestment, and military development.
From the 1950s until recent years,
the Soviets were able to maintain
significant growth in all three areas.
But now they have to choose which
to cut back-guns or butter.
So far, at least, guns have kept
top priority, with military spending
continuing its historical rate of a 4%
annual increase-absorbing 14 to
16% of all economic output. Invest-
ment and consumer living standards
have been sacrificed.
However, Campbell points out,
there are tremendous industrial in-
vestment needs-both for devel-
opment of new energy and other re-
sources in Siberia, and for dealing
with aging industrial plants, out-
moded technology, energy-wasting
practices, inadequate infrastructure,
and transportation and construction
bottlenecks. Of investment resources,
16% already is going to development
of energy resources, especially for
gas development in Siberia, and this
will rise to 21% by 1985.
Moreover, Bialer adds, there is a
new military situation, unprece-
dented during Soviet transfers of
power: The U.S.S.R. has achieved
strategic parity with the U.S. and
military superiority in its own re-
gion. Therefore, in picking new lead-
ership, there could be for the first
time discussion of the priority for
military spending, with the possibil-
ity of cutbacks to release money for
consumer needs and industrial invest-
ment.
Imported technology and equip-
ment have contributed heavily to
Soviet industrial development-in-
cluding the high-priority chemical
industry-as shown in a study by
the U.S. Census Bureau (C&EN, July
19, page 8). Soviet leaders express
concern that reliance on foreign
technology creates strong depen-
dence on the West. They are there-
fore putting renewed emphasis on
their own R&D.
However, technology innovation
has been a weak link in Soviet in-
dustrial development. The system
lacks incentives for application of
research findings to industrial pro-
duction; indeed it fosters resistance
to innovation at the plant level.
Therefore, it appears that the Sovi-
ets will continue to import western
technology and equipment, despite
growing hard currency restraints.
How will the Soviets go about solv-
ing all their problems? Bialer and
Lapidus think the soviets may apply
more authoritarian social controls.
But they rule out any return to the
days of Stalinist mass terror.
In the economic arena, it is not
clear what they will do. But Bialer
and Campbell suggest what they
need to do to overcome their prob-
lems: not tinker with the economy,
but change the whole system; abol-
ish rigid central planning and let
prices establish their own levels on
the basis of costs; allow individual
managerial initiative; and apply
managerial and worker incentives.
These steps have not been taken
until now because they would mean
a loss of political control. So Bialer
doubts they'll be done. After all, he
points out, "no government in -the
world makes decisions on the basis
of economic logic." The U.S., too,
bases economic policy more on poli-
tics than economics.
Richard Seltzer, Washington
I
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ARTICLE APPEARED
CHEMICAL & ENGINEERING NEWS
ON PAGE 3J _ 14 JUNE 1982
facts & Figures
for the chemical industry
A year ago, the U.S. chemical industry appeared ready to shift into
high gear. Output had labored upward to regain just about all the
ground lost during the recession of 1980, and industry executives
generally were confident that it soon would be climbing to new
highs. Optimistic forecasts were widespread. The recession,
though painful, also seemed to be happily brief.
Prospects were still clouded, to be sure. Demand remained
weak in many key markets for chemicals, such as automobiles,
home building, and appliances, as continuing high interest rates
dampened consumer purchases. Export markets, too, were soft,
reflecting a worldwide economic slump and the rising cost of
U.S.-made products.
Nevertheless, at mid- 1981 the consensus was that the year as
a whole would shape up markedly better than 1980 and that 1982
would bring some further growth.
As it turned out, however, from midyear on it has been all down
hill. The data spread across the following pages of Facts & Figures,
C&EN's annual statistical review of the chemical industry, clearly
show that 1981 proved to be little, if any, better than 1980.
Moreover, as the 1982 edition of Facts & Figures goes to press,
it is still by no means clear when the current business slump will
bottom out.
Facts & Figures contains data gathered together from a broad
assortment of sources, including government agencies, trade
associations, international organizations, and the companies
themselves that make up the multifaceted chemical industry.
These data have been treated by the C&EN staff, in many cases,
to develop analytical measures and comparisons in order to add
perspective to the recent performance of the chemical in-
dustry.
In 1981, economic growth continued to decelerate in
Eastern Europe as a whole, as it has since 1977, generally
falling short even of the lower targets set under current
five-year plans. Industrial output for the U.S.S.R. and
its six East European allies was up just 2% (the target was
4%). Bulgaria, East Germany, and Hungary increased
production more than in 1980, but the area's average was
lowered especially by Poland's chaotic economy, where
production was down 13%. Excluding Poland, area pro-
duction was up 3%. The chemical and rubber industries
performed strongest in Bulgaria (up 11%) and the Soviet
Union (up 5%), where both were exactly on target.
Chemical production in Eastern Europe
speeded up in 1980
Millions of metric tons
1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
a As N, P,O,, and K2O. b 100% H2SO4. c Nitrogen content. d Including resins
for man-made fibers in U.S.S.R. Note: Data for U.S.S.R., Bulgaria, Czechoslo-
vakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.
Source: Central Intelligence Agency
MAN-MADE FIBERS: Results mixed in 1981
change
Production, millions of lb 19810 1980 1979 1978 1980-81
NONCELLULOSIC FIBERSb
Bulgaria
117
110
106
102
6%
Czechoslovakia
183
168
159
163
9
East Germany
330
306
292
281
8
Hungary
48
39
40
41
23
Poland
262
348
338
335
-25
Romania
320
300
309
287
7
U.S.S.R.
1345
1213
1049
1047
11
TOTAL
2605
2484
2293
2256
5%
CELLULOSIC FIBERS
Bulgaria
86
80
73
68
8%
Czechoslovakia
116
121
128
156
-4
East Germany
373
372
364
360
0
Hungary
17
18
19
20
-6
Poland
141
190
185
206
-26
Romania
174
140
143
138
24
U.S.S.R.
1475
1433
1400
1400
3
TOTAL
2382
2354
2312
2348
1%
a Preliminary figures. b Excluding olefins and textile glass. Source: Textile Economics
Bureau
1CONTIN7 _- V
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PRODUCTION GROWTH: Slowdown persists
% annual change in gross output 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977
U.S.S.R. and East Europe
All industry
Bulgaria
All industry
Chemicals and rubber
Czechoslovakia
5.6
11.1
4.0
11.1
5.4
9.1
6.9
10.0
6.8
12.4
All industry
2.0
3.3
3.7
5.0
5.5
Chemicals and rubber
0.1
4.8
3.3
na
na
East Germany
All industrya
5.1
4.7
4.8
3.7
5.4
Chemicals and rubber
na
3.8
4.0
6.0
4.3
Hungary
All industry
2.3
-2.1
3.0
4.9
6.6
Chemicals and rubber
2.0
-2.1
6.1
10.7
6.9
Poland
All industry
- 12.6b
0.0
2.7
4.9
6.9
Chemicals and rubber
na
0.4
2.3
3.9
4.4
Romania
All industry
2.6
6.1
8.0
9.6
12.5
Chemicals and rubber
4.0
6.8
1.4
10.6
13.9
U.S.S.R.
All industryc
3.4
3.6
3.4
4.8
5.7
Chemicals and rubberc
5.0
5.6
2.3
6.0
6.5
All industryd
na
2.9e
3.0
3.5
4.0
Chemicals and rubberd
na
5.2e
0.2
3.6
5.2
a Industrial commodity production. b Sales at current prices. c Figures based on official Soviet
statistics. d Figures based on Central Intelligence Agency estimates, giving lower results
because of postulated upward bias in official figures. a Preliminary figure. na - not available.
Sources: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, based on official national statistics,
Central Intelligence Agency
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS: Output off in
Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria
Thousands of metric tons
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
Bulgaria
Fertilizer supply'
733b
830
820
738
742
Pesticide supply
na
40.0
34.8
35.3
26.3
Czechoslovakia
Fertilizer supplya
1,700
1,730
1,745
1,748
1
633
East Germany
,
Fertilizer supply'
na
1,637
1,713
1,670
1,670
Pesticide supply
na
27.0
26.7
25.3
24
5
Hungary
.
Fertilizer supplya
na
1,399
1,502
1,539
1
511
Poland
,
Fertilizer supplya
3,490b
3,635
3,567
3,606
3,586
Pesticide supply
na
na
44.7
49.8
57.1
Romania
Fertilizer supplya
U.S.S.R.
1,600
1,185
1,431
1,480
Fertilizer supplya
19,169b
18,763
17,365
18,420
18,034
Pesticide supply
na
512
na
na
na
a Nutrient content. b Estimated. na = not available. Sources: United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe, based on official national statistics. Department of Agriculture
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3
SHIPMENTS: Petroleum sets the pace but growth in chemicals is a bit above average
Average
annual change
S Millions (Canadian)
All manufacturing
$15,691.3
$13,913.2
$12,520.7
$10,743.7
$9070.6 $8190.4 $7371.6 $6871.2 $5563.1
$4687.2 $4189.5
12.7%
14.1%
Chemicals and
chemical products
1,056.7
929.7
791.9
663.3
535.6 475.3 425.6 383.9 291.9
246.2 231.8
13.7
16.4
Petroleum and
coal products
1,597.7
1,206.7
1,003.0
837.9
711.0
576.8
496.1 432.1
256.1
203.4 176.2
32.4
24.5
Rubber and plastics
products
370.7
334.7
300.3
250.1
211.0
192.7
162.9 - 152.8
131.4
109.7 97.0
10.8
14.2
Paper and allied
products
1,265.4
1,185.5
1,032.0
839.5
744.8
685.7
594.2 639.7
439.2
367.8 333.4
6.7
14.2
PRICES: Increases for industrial chemicals are greater than for industrial products as a whole
All manufacturing industries
272.2
247.2
217.8 190.
4
174.3
161.6
153.7
138.1
116.1
10.1%
11.0%
Chemicals and chemical products
286.2
251.6
214.8 189.
3
175.9
167.2
160.3
137.1
106.5
13.8
11.4
Industrial chemicals-inorganic
313.9
275.3
234.1 204.
1
188.4
179.7
169.5
133.5
107.7
14.0
11.8
Acetylene, compressed
266.3
232.9
213.2 191.
2
170.7
163.7
150.6
116.2
102.9
14.3
9.9
Caustic soda
383.8
281.0
240.1 221.
4
210.7
195.7
169.5
120.2
107.0
36.6
14.4
Chlorine
274.8
248.4
207.9 189.
2
180.5
163.3
144.4
114.1
104.3
10.6
10.9
Oxygen, gas and liquid
215.6
202.4
191.8 174.
6
156.8
152.1
136.0
121.2
108.3
6.5
7.2
industrial chemicals-organic
410.2
354.7
289.0 249.
8
228.1
214.2
201.2
170.0
107.8
15.6
13.9
Plastics and synthetic resins
294.7
274.4
239.7 206.
4
193.3
187.4
181.6
156.0
104.2
7.4
9.4
Alkyd
196.5
176.9
158.4 137.
5
129.4
131.4
135.1
134.8
109.4
11.1
8.4
Phenol formaldehyde
337.6
332.8
300.9 233.
6
232.1
235.6
240.9
214.1
111.4
1.4
7.5
Polyethylene
326.9
315.3
268.9 223.
2
220.3
221.6
213.2
166.3
103.2
3.7
8.1
Fertilizers, mixed
290.5
280.3
229.1 191.
0
180.2
176.9
204.0
167.5
117.2
3.6
10.4
Drugs
189.7
169.5
153.1 140.
4
131.4
127.0
121.1
109.9
103.5
11.9
8.3
Paint and varnish
280.3
239.8
202.3 183.
0
172.8
161.9
153.9
131.9
108.2
16.9
11.6
Pigments and dry colors
304.4
260.0
219.6 189.
7
175.3
164.9
153.4
136.0
103.7
17.1
13.1
Soaps and cleansing compounds
209.7
189.1
169.5 151.
2
141.1
134.5
132.1
118.0
105.3
10.9
.9.2
CHEMICAL IMPORTS: Big gains for most
CHEMICAL EXPORTS: Organics up sharply
Change
Change
$ Millions (Canadian)s
1981
1980
1979
1960-81
S Mlllbns (Canadian)8
1981
1960
1979 1960-81
Inorganic chemicals
$ 401.1
$ 344.1
$ 353.2
17%
Chemical elements
$ 181.0
$ 160.4
$ 14
6.0 13%
Organic chemicals
1087.3
930.1
895.3
17
Other inorganic chemicals
1052.4
947.3
83
9.7 11
Fertilizers and fertilizer
158.9
134.9
135.1
18
Organic chemicals
1185.9
923.9
70
4.8 28
materials
Synthetic and reclaimed
rubber
Fertilizers and fertilizer
materials
Synthetic rubber and plastic
1345.6
1253.8
98
7.3 7
Plastics materials
605.1
537.2
564.4
13
materials
Plastic film and sheet
242.1
192.2
181.7
26
Plastics basic shapes and
Other plastics basic shapes
154.2
128.5
135.5
20
forms
and forms
Other chemical products
205.6
178.9
15
7.6 15
Dyes, except dyeing
di
i
t
tes
TOTAL
$4634.0
$4054.7
$332
1.8 14%
n
erme
a
a Dom stic exports only. Valdes as declared on export downents: may inci
a ehippir
costs
Pigments, lakes, and toners
64.4
53.5
62.1
20
sown: Statistics Canada
g
.
Paints and related products
98.4
86.2
94.9
14
Other chemical products
763.3
741.4
617.5
3
TOTAL
$3810.7
$3354.2
$3240.3
14%
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PRODUCTION: Growth continues for fertilizers and plastics in Eastern Europe
Thousands of metric tons,
unless otherwise noted
U.S.S.R.
Sulfuric acid, 100%
24,100
23,030
22,364
22,411
21,104
Mineral fertilizers
108,000
103,858
94,523
97,976
96,752
(gross weight)
Mineral fertilizersb
26,000
24,774
22,137
23,653
23,493
Nitrogenb
na
10,239
9,151
9,299
9,114
Phosphate b.C
na
6,471
6,344
6,153
6,024
Potassiumb
na
8,064
6,635
8,193
8,347
Synthetic ammonlad
na
13,764
12,278
11,462
10,744
Sodium carbonate,
na
4,800
4,782
4,858
4,876
100%
Plasticse
4,100
3,638
3,478
3,516
3,309
Sodium hydroxide, 100%
2,800
2,755
2,680
2,763
2,658
Synthetic rubbers
na
1,880
1,867
1,795
1,700
Rubber tiresg
60,500
60,100
59,981
59,018
57,400
(thousands of units)
Pesticides
BULGARIA
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
859
998
974
860
Mineral fertllizersb
na
947
959
968
984
Nitrogenb
na
730
677
685
705
Phosphateb
na
217
282
283
279
Synthetic ammonlad
na
1,026
951
960
995
Plastics
na
250
200
178
169
Sodium hydroxide, 100%
na
161
107
102
96
Synthetic rubber
na
30
30
25
25
Rubber tireso
na
1,982
1,752
1,734
1,830
(thousands of units)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA-
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
1,284
1,253
1,195
1,276
Mineral fertilizersb
na
1,182
1,140
1,176
1,178
Nitrogenb
na
618
591
625
605
Phosphateb.c
na
361
358
367
389
Potassiumb?h
na
203
199
191
184
Synthetic ammoniad
na
841
804
812
791
Plastics
913
894
853
810
738
Sodium hydroxide, 100%
na
326
312
311
312
Synthetic rubber
na
59
60
59
59
Rubber tireso
na
6,714
6,581
6,439
6,341
(thousands of units)
EAST GERMANY
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
950
952
971
972
Mineral fertilizersb
na
4,773
4,740
4,628
4,470
Nitrogenb
na
940
' 875
892
838
a Approximate figures. b Nutrient content basis, as N. P20s. or K20. c Including production
of ground phosphate rock for direct applications and phosphate animal feeds. d Nitrogen
content. a Including resins for man-made fibers. f Estimated. g For all motor vehicle tires,
excluding aircraft and bicycle tires. h Imposed potash added to domestically produced nitrogen
Thousands of metric tons,
unless otherwise noted
1s81'
1880
1979
1978
1977
Phosphateb'
na
411
411
413
403
Potassiumb
na
3,422
3,395
3,323
3,229
Synthetic ammoniad
na
1,159
1,079
1,137
1,130
Plastics
na
800
779
762
734
Sodium hydroxide, 100%
na
626
548
415
423
Synthetic rubber
na
170
165
145
147
Rubber tires9
na
7,068
6,890
6,728
6,652
(thousands of units)
HUNGARY
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
614
613
690
678
Mineral fe tilizersb
rta
894
850
855
788
Nitrogenb
na
599
550
534
514
Phosphateb
na
150
165
185
165
Potassiumb-h
na
145
143
136
109
Synthetic ammonia?
na
900
803
746
729
Plastics
311
328
294
213
148
Sodium hydroxide, 100%l
na
188
194
146
97
Rubber tireso
na
870
750
773
814
(thousands of units)
POLAND
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
2,964
2,983
3,172
3,268
Mineral fertilizersb
na
2,239
2,431
2,621
2,610
Nitrogenb
na
1,295
1,376
1,470
1,521
Phosphateb
na
842
931
1,026
966
Potassiumb?h
na
105
110
125
123
Synthetic ammoniad
na
1,438
1,530
1,616
1,665
Plastics
na
549
440
467
463
Sodium hydroxide 100%
no
415
436
469
440
Synthetic rubber
na
118
130
126
119
Rubber tireso
na
8,743
8,500
7,852
7,457
(thousands of units)
ROMANIA
Sulfuric acid, 100%
na
1,850
1,750
1,655
1,523
Mineral fertllizersb
2,640
2,451
2,522
2,461
1,981
Nitrogenb
na
1,689
1,738
1,723
1,381
Phosphateb
na
689
709
660
548
Potassiumb,h
na
73
75
78
52
Synthetic ammoniad
na
2,267
2,333
2,259
1,793
Plastics
na
579
516
552
543
Sodium hydroxide, 100%
na
705
704
725
735
Synthetic rubber
na
150
149
148
136
Rubber tireso
na
5,060
4,691
4,690
4,372
(thousands of units)
and phosphate to form muhmutrient fertilizer. I Including regenerated NaOH. na - not available.
sources: Central Intelligence Agency. Department of Commerce. Department of Agriounure,
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (based on official national statistics)
SOVIET FOREIGN TRADE: After steady growth, exports and imports of chemicals turn down
Exports'
$79,377
$76,470
$64,913
$52,395
$45,227
$37,269
$33,401
$27,374
$21,332
$15,409
$13,792
Imports'
73,158
68,477
57,961
50,795
40,926
38,212
37,070
24,861
20,980
16,104
12,467
Trade balance
6,219
7,993
6,952
1,600
4,301
-943
-3,669
2,513
352
-695
1,325
Chemical exports'
na
1,119
1,606
1,284
1,063
939
1,027
887
549
439
396
Chemical imports'
na
1,822
2,803
2,188
1,850
1,668
1,747
1,448
954
868
702
Chemical trade balance
na
-703
-1,197
-904
-787
-729
-720
-561
-405
-429
-306
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- 6 Western Pacific
CHINA
PRODUCTION: Slower growth in 1981 for most major products
Thousands of wattle Ions 1981 1980
Ammonia' 11,990 12,150
Fertlilzerb 12,390 12,320
Nitrogen (N) 9,860 9,990
Phosphate (P205)c 2,510 2,310
Potash (K20) 20 20
Sulfuric acid 7,810 7,640
Sodium hydroxide 1,923 1,923
Sodium carbonate 1,652 1,613
Change
1979 1978 1980-81
10,727 9287 -1.3%
10,654 8691 0.6
8,821 7637 -1.3
1,817 1033 8.7
16 21 0
7,000 6610 2.2
1,826 1640 0
1,486 1329 2.4
a Nitrogen content of armronia produced for fertilizer. b Nutrient content. C Including Production
of ground phosphate rode for drect application and phosphate animal leads. Sources: State
CHEMICAL IMPORTS: Fertilizers are biggest
- Change
s Minions' 1980 1979 1978 1979-80
Fertllizersb $ 821 $ 594 $ 465 38%
Nitrogenous fertilizer 501 496 354 1
Chemical elements and compounds 546 411 382 33
. Organic chemicals 394 258 265 53
Plastic materials, resins 378 158 137 139
Dyeing, tanning, and coloring 79 88 70 -10
materials
Medicinal products 19 13 9 46
Essential oils, perfume, and 9 10 10 -9
cleansing materials
Mineral tar and crude chemicals` 0 11 12 -99
Other chemicalsd 179 159 100 13
TOTAL $2031 $1444 $1185 41%
a Free on board. b Manufactured. c From coal. oil, and natural gas. d Includes explosives and
pyrotechnic products. and Chemical materials and Products not elsewhere specified. Source:
Central Intelligence Agency, estimated from data reported by China's trade partners
TAIWAN
INDUSTRY TRENDS: Chemical growth slows
Industrial production Indexes,
1976 - 100 1981
All manufacturing 169.3
Chemical materials 205.1
Basic chemicals 152.5
Petrochemicals 262.3
Fertilizers 124.0
Synthetic fibers 197.4
Plastics and resins 210.4
Chemical products 176.7
Ch
1980 1979 1978 148 0-81
163.2 153.0 142.8 4%
201.2 189.1 165.3 2
150.2 148.5 126.1 2
254.4 242.0 194.1 3
134.6 127.9 125.9 -8
187.7 174.5 159.7 5
214.5 197.5 176.6 -2
163.9 161.0 139.2 8
FOREIGN TRADE: Big gains for chemicals
Exportsb $22,611 $19,811 $16,103 12,687
Imports` 21,200 19,733 14,774 11,027
Trade balance 1,411 78 1,330 1,660
Chemical exportsb 981 494 356 275
Chemical importsc 2,725 2,024 1,817 1,305
Chemical trade balance -1,744 -1,530 -1,461 -1,030
a Estimated b Free on board. c includes cost, insurance, and freight. Source: Council for
Economic Planning & Development. Taiwan
C41
Thousands of metrlc Ions 1981 1990 1979 1978 -61
Calcium carbide 1,510 1,520 1,407 1237 -0.7
Plastics 916 898 793 679 2.0
Insecticides 484 537 537 533 -9.9
Ethylene 500 490 435 380 2.0
Synthetic detergents 478 393 397 324 21.6
Man-made fibers 527 450 326 285 17.1
Pharmaceuticals 37 40 42 41 -7.5
CHEMICAL EXPORTS: Top $1 billion
Change
s Millions' 1980 1979 1978 1979-80
Chemical elements and compounds $ 488 $276 $141 77%
Organic chemicals 281 168 85 67
Medicinal products 186 114 79 63
Essential oils, perfume, and cleansing 104 82 67 27
materials
Explosives and pyrotechnic products 95 72 49 32
Plastic materials, resins 77 50 12 54
Dyeing, tanning, and coloring materials 66 46 35 45
Mineral tar and crude chemicaisb 28 9 3 208
Fertllizersc 2 1 1 42
Other chemical products 184 129 84 43
TOTAL $1230 $779 $471 58%
a Free on board. b From coal, oil. and natural gas. c Manufactured. Soya: central Intelligence
Agency. estimated from data reported by China's trade partners
PRODUCTION: Lower for several chemicals
Thousands of wattle ions, Ck~
unless Otherwise noted 1981 1980 1979 1976 1980-81
Ferttlizers' na 2,092 1,979 1,959 na
Man-made fibers 687 633 587 540 9%
Polyvinyl chloride 456 454 407 389 0
Synthetic detergents 94 104 105 86 -9
Benzeneb 137 145 153 129 -5
Ethylene 443 458 445 366 -3
Ethylene glycol 156 133 118 51 18
Propylene 204 213 205 164 -4
Tolueneb 172 153 134 95 12
Vinyl chloride 411 405 317 320 2
Xyleneb 277 311 285 131 -11
Ammonia, anhydrous 494 504 476 534 -2
Ammonium sulfate 504 539 556 541 -6
Calcium superphosphate 226 207 208 175 9
Hydrochloric acid 184 179 180 180 3
Oxygenc 174 159 141 107 9
Sodium hydroxide 357 400 420 362 -11
Sulfuric acid 819 769 777 685 6
Urea 285 343 312 366 -17
a In terms of 20 % N, 18 % P205. and 50 % K2Ofertilizer, b Millions of liters. c Mitlrons of cubic
meters. na w not available. Source: Council for Economic Planning & Development.
Taiwan
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