THE SYNOPTIC METHOD OF LONG-RANGE FORECASTING BY B. P. MULTANOVSKIY'S SCHOOL (PART I)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2011
• Sequence Number: 274
• Publication Date: May 11, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CLASSIFICATION enm&TImRNTTAL CONEIDEN
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY REPORT
INFORMATION FROM
FOREIGN DOCUMENTS OR RADIO BROADCASTS CD NO.
COUNTRY Germany
SUBJECT Scientific - Geophysics, long-range weather
forecasting, Multanovskiy's methods
HOW
PUBLISHED Periodical
WHERE
PUBLISHED Not indicated
LANGUAGE German REPORT
DATE OF
INFORMATION
DATE
PUBLISHED Not indicated '
CI IDDI C.LiCAIT TO
OP'STN[C OX[TLD STATESS M THIINATN[ NEAX N'O S OP [
O LSPIC"All ACT SSO
. I, EN N AN,
. !. .. SI ANO At. AS AYWNO[0. ITS TRANSMISSION OR THE RLYLLATION
?
UNAUTHO
IS' PROM OSI TWO. IS PRO.
' '
I TSCT
REPRO YCTIOX Of THIS
M
IT[DSTLA
M
IB
THE SYNOPTIC METHOD OF LONG-RANGE FORECASTING
- y COQ JO M I IAL
CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL
R I I DISTRIBUTION
ARMY A RW y lFBI
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809
A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
Ai"i cr'e sunmiary: The introduction cites the sources on wtrich the
Multw ovski~ method is based and gives Multanovskiy's personal history. For
better understanding of the concepts developed by him, a short discussion of
oscillation and wave phenomena is given. Then an explanation is given of the
concepts of axis, composite maps, natural time intervals, natural synoptic
periods, elementary synoptic process, natural synoptic seasons, phases, and
rhythms. This is followed by an example and a short description of the dev-
eloping of a long-range weather forecast by Multanovskiy's method. The article
is concluded by a comparison with the long-range weather forecast methods of
L. Weickmann and F. Baur.
I Introduction
Very little or nothing at all has been reported inr,German periodicals
on Multanovskiyts method. Even the Second Edition of the German translation
of "Introduction to Synoptic Weather Analysis" by S. P. Khromov, published
in 1942, merely states that the long-range forecasting methodc'.developed by
B. P. Multanovskiy consists in the forecasting of synoptic processes, based
on pressure distribution, using so-called "composite maps" of the position
of baric centers, on which maps the displacement of the pressure fields is
extrapolated.
It was thus a most worthwhile effort by the meteorologist, Mrs. Maria
Wenzel, of the former Reichs Meteorological Office to translate the Russian
material available on this topic, and to bring the subject to the attention
CONFIDENTIAL
can ir.11UNTIA1
Up'69i 1532.II 1 irii
.1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
of.her .colleagues ;by a irepornt.of'50 ttypeHmittten ip4gea'..:ith:21.mapa. The
.discussion ;between her and.M...Rodewald iin "!Annalen crier 'i{eieordloQie"?
..II/VIII :(l948'),, was the ..dAirecit.sttitmul1us :i'or the ;publishing of :a long,ov er-
due report ,on this ;fundamentally important .matter in the '"Zeitschrift fuer
Meteorologic"..
' B. P.Multanovakiywas :born in 1876 and diedat Leningrad on 4 March
11938. He studied metearolggy under A. Aoyeykav,, trom.whom he obtained a
view of the large-scale,mateo.rulogical ,phenomena ,.extending over many millions
of square ;kilometers, as they :present themselves to riussUnr -meteorologists.
In 1913 he was appointed chief of the syngpgties,depar.tment for long-range
forecasting. In 1915 he,wrate?".The Syngptic Conditions of Drought" and
predicted ,the flood J. the Lena River. Because of scientific attacks against
him, he was forbidden, starting in 1916, to publish forecasts in the name of
tl,e i tin gcbptiyaical Observatory. During the wiuvter of 1921/22 he forecast,
upon tequest by the railroad administration, a disastrous flood cf Lake
Ilmen. On the basis of this forecast, the ,railroad administration was able
to take proper precautions, so that the .flood, when it did occur, did not
disrupt railroad traffic. Starting in 1922, the Main Geophysical Obser-
vatory resumed publication of his forecasts. Agriculture, shipping and
scientific expeditions used his forecasts. Naltanovskiy was firmly con-
vinced of the great value of meteorology, especially of long-range fore-
casting in a planned national econorrlY, so that there was no ae.ricultural.
planning in which he did not participate. He had become a practical meteoro-
logist.
This report is based on the following material, translated from the
Russian: Principles of the Synoptic Method of Long-range Weather Forecasting,
by B. P. Multanovskiy, 1933,
The Bases of the Synoptic Method of Long-range Weather For?castin , by T. A.
Puletova, S. T. Pagava, L. A. Rozhdestvenskiy, and N. A. Shirkina, 1940;
rtm1I:InCPITIAI
UU111 ll3 .i9 i MI.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 5, 1938: "On the Rhythmic Activity of the
Atmosphere", by S. T. Pagava;
Mrs. Wenzel's report, mentioned above.
Our report has one shortcoming: It was compiled on the basis of trans-
lated material. There is a possibility that the sense of the terms has
.undergone some changes in the translation. However,:since the entire system
of concepts is one unified whole, based on most exact scientific observations,
this shortcoming should be quite beside the point. If the long-range weather
forecasting method of B. P. Multanovskiy is discussed by German meteorologists
more than it. has been until now, this article has served its purpose.
2. Auxiliary Concepts of Wave and Oscillation Theory
0. I. Vangengeym who wrote the introduction to the above-mentioned
fundamental work states: "Multanovskiy uses in his work original expressions
which usually have a deep hidden meaning. They are so characteristic that
the editors made special efforts to retain the terminology and style of the
author". This is probably the reason why the valuable ideas of Multanovskiy
have not become internationally known.
In order to make these concepts clear, we shall preface them with a few
words on oscillation and wave theory. If one perceives similar traits in
comparing two phenomena, then he will understand them. This is not always
easy. The periodic variations of atmospheric pressure in the tropic zones
have been understood for 50 years and their causes known. The classification
of the aperiodic pressure variations in the temperate zones by periods has
so far been unsuccessful. In order to arrive at any understanding of periodic
:aenomena in the atmosphere, it is appropriate to recall the most simple
periodic phenomenon in existence. The author of this article believes that
the transition from these phenomena to atmospheric ones is a practicable
method for comprehension of the system of concepts used by Multanovskiy.
We can discuss this topic only to the extent to which it is required here
for the purpose indicated. Details can be seen from the bibliography [1].
She bibliography is not availabl].
- 4 -
CONFIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
1
CONFIDENTIAL
The mathematical pendulum with very small amplitude operates according
T = 2n - 15 /B1.
It demonstrates the important fact that if a physical constant is added
- namely, the acceleration due to gravity - a time interval can be expressed
in terms of space; in other words, the period of the pendulum can be expressed
by the length of the pendulum. Thus it is not strange if meteorol: fists would
use the magnitude of certain air masses over areas of the earth's surface in
order to determine tir,,e intervals or importance in weather development. For
pendulum oscillations with greater amplitude, another factor is added -
namely, the dependence on the Magnitude 'of the amplitude. In the case of
dumpedhJ and forced oscillations, and aisb in the` case of the physical pen-
dulum, some other remarkable properties are added. First of all, the damping
prevents the occurrence of a distaster due to resonance. One phenomenon in
particular is of importarrbe to the meteorologist, namely the circumstances
that the natth'al oscillations of a oscillatory system will be replaced by
externally-sppiied.-_~ forced oscillations and that the body win then oscillate
with the period of that force. However, the occurrence of this phenomenon
requires that the body be solid. The significance of this observation can
also be seen from the example of the physical pendulum. The period ol its
oscillation is giver, by the equation:
T - 2n ? ?/gMs
where theta Q is the moment of inertia of the mass, M its magnitude, and
s the distance of its centroid from the axis of rotation. If the mass is
increased, the moment of inert4% in the numerator increases by r5 while the
mass in the denominator increases only by r3. Thus, if the mass is increased
the period becomes longer, and conversely. If we assume these changes of
mass to be periodicji, the type of differential equation representing these
phenomena will also change and we will obtain a second-order homogenous
co"IDEMM
f' dF ~Iiflp 9A1
L Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA- RDP80-00809A 000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
line'tsr differential equation with non-constant coefficients. The concept
of period loses its meaning and must be replaced by the concept of rhythm,
in which congruent repetitions do not take place after certain time intervals,.
as weather phenomena prove. Oscillations of elastic bodies extending over
great surfaces expand the concepts. A circular membrane held at the edges
has natural oscillations like a string, with the period of the oscillation
given by the equation
T ./ ?
where E is mass per unit area, S is tension, and T is period of oscillation.
The lambda facto: )~ is obtained as the zero of the Bessel function J('V ).
The appearance of this function in the oscillation problem is a consequence
of the form of the edge of the membrane. In the case of fundamental oecilla-
tions the amplitudes increase from +he ed.ve toward the center) end in the
case of harmonics node lines appear. It is appropriate to>think of coupled
pendulums whose oscillations show a periodically variable amplitude. Wave
theory also supplies the concepts of interference, coherence, resonance,
beats, phase velocities ana group velocities.
The oscillations and wave motions in liquids are subject to still other
special regularities. One of these factors which deserves mentioning is
the effect of the joining of two originally separate bodies of flow. In an
oscillating mass this extends the period of oscillation.
The application of the above phenomena to atmospheric conditions has
none of the aspects of the pseudo-scientific. The works of the German meteoro-
locists A. Schmauss, H. von Ficke:?, L. Weickniann, A. Defant, and J. Dartels,
just to name the older ones of those still alive, confirm this concept.
All weather events are an incessant conversion of the most varied kinds of
energy. The conversions take place by n.:?ans of circulations which are
alwcys coupled to each other within the entire atmosphere. The source of
enemy is the incnmint short-wave radiation of the sun, and the negative
source is the emitted long-wave radiation of the earth atd of the atmosphere.
I
INHERENT M
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
1
CONFIDENTIAL
Between these phenomena the processes of atmospheric energy conversion takes
place in such a way that the processes taking place at the same time form
one unit, creating a specialized field of the study of synoptic processes.
The above statements lead to one important conclusion: the magnitudes
of certain regions of the earth's surface, defined e.g. by pressure con-
figurations, may be used as a working hypothesis for the time periods in
wcaLher defined by the repetition of similar conditions. In place, of the
varying I;eiLht of thr ocn('ulum mass above the transition point, the change
of potential into kinetic energy is used. Obviously, these changes in the
atmosphere must remain very small if harmonic oscillations are to be created.
However, great conversions of energy are observed in weather, and simple
oscillation phenomena cannot be expected to take place. This must be taken
into consideration in the estirrations of the "period". T. Bergeron in
,aetenrnlovische Zeitschrift, 1930, p? 261, in the article "Outlines of Dynamic
Climatology" proved the existence of "wheels of circulation". It is per-
missible to speak of the "coupling" of these wheels and to attempt to in-
terpret their action in the light of the phenomena occurring in coupled
oscillating systems. Finally, the fact that these wheels of circulation are
very variable in regard to position, size and energy conversion also allows
us to penetrate into the mysteries of the atmospheric rhythms.
3. The Axes
The above concepts should facilitate the understanding of Multanovskiy' a
terminology. It turns out that this method is not an esoteric science.
!.Iultanovskiy's school sees the synoptic processes, from the study of the
daily weather reaps, as a general circulation. It includes the relation hip
of the polar "centers of adtioh" with those of Mesopotauda, the Azores, e1c.,
r.
and thus, especially in the works of E. S. Lyr, investigates the $ynandcs of
the atmosphere of the entire northern hemisphes m'Atlempts are also made to
ir,?,e:;tigaLe Lhe connection between the vortex movements in the atmosphere
and the oceanic circulation in t6'6--depths. As far s.-, the adaptability of
CONIDENTIAL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19 :CIA-R
DP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
the method is concerned, it is remarkable that during the past few years
aerological data have been evaluated to provide additional characteristics
and that attempts have been made to establish a connection between Multano-
vskiy's school and the Norwegian theory of V. Bjerknes.
Multanovskiy bases his theory on the investigation of mobile anticyclones,
because they are more stable than cyclones, especially after Hildebrand-
Hildebrandsson had pointed them out as controlling the weather and since
stationary anticyclones are rata. Their centers of arigto nave been found
and their paths determined. Tpo types were friunda thoab :fr)m the West and
those from the North, called Ards and Polar Peith py ci aayioyc~one which
moves first to the north and then turn to the southeast is telc.ii to be a
complex. Its path is rdsglveq into two parts, the first of the Azores type
and the second of the Polar type.
According to this pattern, the polar paths of the anticyclones for the
years 1881-1915 were entered on two working maps, one for the warm season
(April-September) and the other for the cold season (October-March). The
two maps show a great fan of paths covering northwestern Europe, with one
joint center of origin of the paths located northeast of the northern coast
ofGreeniand and another joint center located in the northeast in the Tagcyr
region. The paths in the general west-east movement are called normal or
polar paths, and those in the direction from northeast to west are called
anomalous or ultrapolar paths. A discussion of these terms would be appro-
priate, but we must omit it because of lack of space. Instead of a bundle
of paths established throughout the years, the mean path was taken and called
the median. The median characterizes the peculiar direction of the anti-
cyclones coining fro,,. the north during the particular half of the year. The
medians are then entered on a map covering the entire 35 years - one map for
each of the two seasons - and the medians are again determined. These
medians are called the axes.
CURB' i'iIL
Sanitized Copy
hp proved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
-
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
GUNffdJL1i I IAL
Of course, it had to be determined first whether these axes are not
t'.ictitious. The axes do provide data for paths and for the geographical
distribution of anticyclones. Moving along the axis with its baric center,
the anticyclone brings cold weather to the regions east of the axis, while
air is transported from south to north on the west side of the axis. Since
these processes are repeated, the axis must b6 a temperature dividing line
and can represent the boundary line for the growth region of certain trees,
and for the character and the duration of the rise of the water level in the
rivers.
On the basis of the particularly great massing of pressure centers in
various sectors of the "fan", Multanovskiy identified the following axes:
polar winter axes: Icelandic, Norwegian, North Cape - Kara axis*
ultrapolar winter axes: Kara, Azov, Hungarian, Scandin^vian axis.
polar summer axes: Icelandic, Central Scandinavian, North Cape - Kanin,
Kara axis.
ultrapolar summer axes: Kara axes: a) Kara Sea - Kama - lower course
of the Volga, b) Kara Sea - upper course of
the Oka - upper Dnepr - Hungary
The effect of.individual axes on weather changes from section to sec-
tion along the axis. Multanovskiy distinguishes in the polar winter Ice-
landic axis three sectors: the oceanic sector extending to the narrows of
the Baltic, the second sector from there to the Carpathians, and the third
sector from there to the foothills of the Caucasus. Each sector has its
own weather characteristics.
The points of origin of the axes, according to Multanovskiy, have the
role of "active centers of adtioh of the atmosphere". The centers of action
introduced by Teisserenc de Dort, i?fultanovskiy and his predecessor S. D.
Griboycdov are assumed to be passive formations; thatLia,,the primary cause
of their origin is to be found at other points on the earth. The char-
acteristic pressure field connected with tau Is ierely the result of part-
-9-
CONFIDENTIAL
CINFIDENPAI
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
CONVIDO Via'
icul;r .10c:111 con('itions. For the icela ndie low-pressure area and the winter
anticyclone of Asia this is ,:asy to prove. The regions of intersection of
polar and ultrepolar axes are regarded as active centers of.aEtioir of the
second order. The following confirms this idea: during hi& visit to the
i,cather Bureau of the Main GeobhyeicaL')bservatory in 1928, L. Weickmann
pointed out that his principle of "mirroring" in air pressure is shown best
in the conditions over Hamburg and Hungary. Both these regions are active
centers of action of the second order.
Tl-ie weather of Eastern lirope, according to Multanovskiy, is affected
primarily by the polar axes, while western Europe is under the regime of the
Azores axes. Therefore in his opinion German meteorologists should con-
centrate their studies on these axes.
The question of the physical nature of these axes has so far not been
answered. in they `.-_r- derived by the finding of a mean value, the fre-
quency .moe
quency of their geograp'tic distribution was taken into account so that a
whole system of axes was developed. Thus as regards their statistical origin
the axes greatly, differ from, let us say, isobars of mean air pressure in
January. They have a decisive effect on the daily weather and correspond to
real physical magnitudes. They can be interpreted as geophysical magnitudes
of gdticu't,, with a dimension of Zk_g?m2?see-7 and a definite numerical: value
for different sections of the axes, and their manifestation are waves of the
atmospheric ocean.
!l. MLc.mL 9211e Ma
After the intuition of large-scale weather phenomena, which led Nultan-
ovskiy to the concept of axes, he posed the questiont What is the relation
of each of the separate axes to the weather in Europe on the days on which
the axes appear? In his chapter on "Axes and Location of the Pressure
fielrions" he uses the following method for drawing his map showing the pres-
sure ref;ionst For the tipog during whi h the baric maximum moves along a
CGi-F Efl 7914 !.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
GONF DE NTLftL
certain axis, the centers ofmaxima and minima of individual successi:-e
dally weather maps are entered on a working map. Since the movement of
maxima along a particular axis, according to above statements, should be
closely connected to the distribution of pressure areas over Europe, it was
not surprising that the drawing of these working maps showed two regions one
of which contained only maxima and the other only minima and which were se-
parated by "lines of demarcation". In addition to these main pressure form-
ations, the map can be supplemented by the centers of partial minima and the
high-pressure ridges marked by special symbols. The centers are determined
not only by the geometric center of the isolines, but also by the appro-
priate wind system.
Map 2 shows the composite of the synoptic processes during the warm
season (April to September) when, from 1881 to 1915,, anticyclones move along
ine Nara axis. The main region extends in bands from Franz Josef band across
the Kara Sea to the Ob, with a branch running to the Urals. Between the
lower Irtysh and the middle Ob there is a small region of partial cyclones,
undoubtedly a trace of the incoming breakthroughs of a system of the Taimyr
minimum in the cyclone area, located in the Lake Ilmen Basin, the upper Dnepr,
the upper Volga, and with a second cluster of centers on the Donets. This
area also receives incoming cyclones from Southern Scandinavia and the Baltic
across the Niemen, across the Western Dvina To the Northern Dvina, if the
Kara minimum extends far enough to the northeast and absorbs the band of the
incoming breakthroughs. If this situation prevails, the minima can move
from the Donets to the middle Volga an __ama. ......
atmospheric ocean, a strong displacement. of high-pressure and low-pressure
regions from the southwest takes place, and the former show wellydeveloped
cyclone troughs which can be interpreted as a sign of the energetic dis-
placement. The Azores-cores receive an additional polar effect from the
,Jan-t1ayen region, an effect which is directed toward the Oder and Hungary.
CO FII EiI11 L
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP8O-00809AO00600390274-5
CONFIDENTIAL
.or wc.,Lern FF.innpe, cyclone activity along the }'hone and the tknnlt, which has
reached t.h.? continent From the south through the Tyrrhenian `;ra, is char-
;icter.i.stic. ;Th,~se conditiono favor the development of thu ;sirocco win1, in
that sea grid the 'istral in the Golfe du Lyon. Thunderstorms develop in a
broad belt whose western border rims fron the white Sea to Moscow, Kremenchug
and Kishinev and whose eastern border runs from Novorossiysk to Stalingrad
and Orenburg and to the upper Tobol river. North of the 60th percllel the
thunderstorms turn into hear precipitation (Pechora basin, Mesen, Northern
Dvina), and they are highly developed along the middle Volga. in Western
thund..^... ^ ........ appear .,.... .. the _ .. st of the 20th d^gr.,o - o ,.f l..-a~i.tudc, and spread
.... .
as far as the Niemen basin, Lake Ladoga and the Kola peninsula. The belt
running from the Vistula southward to Hungary and probably also to the Balkan
peninsula remain free of thunderstorms.
Multanovskiy writes: The composite map shows the change of dynamics of
of "general circulation" the composite map is an important element. In the
sense of the attempted wave-theory interpretation of Multanovskiy's system
it could be said that the positions of the lines of demarcation and the
magnitude of the high-pressure and low-pressure areas outlined by them attain
the dimension of a physical magnitude after multiplication by constants of
elasticity, gravity and radiation, This apodeietic statement, however, is
valid only within the limits of applicability of the working hypothesis pre-
sented here.
Composite maps can be drawn for any kind of weather phenomena. Map 3
shows atmosgiheric processes which cause in.'reased southerly winds in the
Gulf of Finland, and Lakes Ladoga and Onega. Investigation of daily weather
;paps showed that the winds increased on the following days: 8 June 1920,
13 sap 1931, 10 July 1932, !g Aug; 1932, 2)1 Aut 1933, and 22 July 11%35, among
others. Thu phonnmrnon requires a particulor pressure dist.ibution over
kuroprO. Thu composite man nhros how the atmnoi liere solves thu pill rm.
F
L b1st@9tha 11AL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP8O-00809AO00600390274-5
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
-'I
CONFIDENTIAL
On those six days chosen here, there was in every case a cyclone over the
isaltic, a pre.uure trough in the Dnepr region and high pressure over the
eastern half of Furopean Russia with extensions to the White Sea. On none
of these days according to 14. Wentzel, was there any cyclone activity in the
east or a high-pressure area south of the 55th parallel with an ext .ision
to ';icstern Europe.
5. The Natural Intervals
The main problem of weather forecasting in the temperate zones of the
earth consists in the knowledge of the periods within which thw evelnnee and
anticyclones arise and vanish. The Multanovskiy school, by means of the con-
cepts of axes and composite maps, has found certain time intervals in the
synoptic weather maps which in their :pinion areas characteristic for the
weather as the period of oscillation is for a pendulum. The occurrences on
the surface of the earth, on which the properti:a of the atmospheric masses
depend, cause the two astronomical periods, the daily andcannual period of
insolation which are the basis of all weather phenomena, to be only of sec-
ondary importance in comparison with the circulation of the atmosphere in
the temperate zones.
The attempts to under: band the creation of the natural atmospheric
intervals, depending on the astronomical periods of day and year, can be
started by the study of the mixing of the air connected with the general cir-
culation. Meteorologists who have worked on this problem agree that a quan-
tity of heat supplied to the tropics by radiation takes on the average ten
days to be distributed throughout the atmosphere. This time interval is of
prime importance for the understanding of weather phenomena. As can be con-
cluded by analogy with the theory of damped forced oscillations of physical
masses in the liquid state, this large-scale mixing period determines that!
character of the daily weather. It is a statistical quantity which can be
GUN MENTML
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5- M
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
-1
d~c~?9~s~~~1TlAi
1~~617e iC3L I t Int.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
C. UI 8 D ENTIAL
given only within absolute or most frequent limits of variation. It is
thus not suited for use in ordinary life. The effect of the mixing process
in the atmosphere is shown most effectively by the fact that the start and
duration of seasons caused by insolation undergo extensive variations in the
temperate zones.
It is thus understandable that Multanovskiy based his time interval for
study of forecasting on real observed weather. He called it the "natural
synoptic period". Likewise, he designated the seasons determined by the
general- ??+-~ circu?- -~+~?? the ??lator. +he "r??t~ural synoptic uoaau vn: .. In the aa ?---?~ ?aj ??vpva.? ~? . :,.a sac 00t41-'5V Vf ALL"
research it was found necessary to introduce a shorter time interval, called
the "elementary synoptic process". The term is not a very fortunate choice.
Perhaps it should be called "time quantum" of synoptic wes.ther occurr3nces
for the sake of greater accu7?:.cy. The above three intervals of time are
magnitudes of non-mechanical statistics. They have as meilt,ioiled an absolute
and most frequent variation,
We should like to add to the above theories the statements by A. Duletova
who writes in Chapter 12 of the second book cited in the introduction: "The
air around the earth is subdivided into quasi-permanent air masses and is
in constant motion. The cyclones and anticyclones of the temperate zones,
which are a consequence of the front activity, form and disperse continuously.
These motions, transformations and interactions of air masses proceed con-
tinuously and are interdependent. If we want to study this regularity in th::
creation of atmospheric processes, we must somehow subdivide this continous
imcxvvmenlt? pick out certain stages in the development of the processes and
determine certain principles for their subdivision. We can distinguish two
sHmulte.ne.ous moments in the development of atmospheric processes; namely,
the continuous movement and a certain stability. The latter appears in two
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
1
types: 1) stability as a quasi-stationary phenomenon, either in the form
of a lack of motion or of very slight motion (anticyclones), 2) stability
as a manifestation of notion or, in general, as the maintaining of some type
of circulation during a certain period of time. The Nultanovskiy school
then developed the above three natural time intervals by basing the sub-
division of the atmospheric processes on the stability principle".
Figure 1. Distribution of the Axes of the Anticyclones According to Multanovskiy.
Polar Axes: 1- winter, 2- summer. Ultrapolar Axes: 3- winter,
4- summer.
C0NF ENTOAI
Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
.
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5
L ENT IA,L
Fig2re,2. Combined Charts of the Synoptic Processes During the Warm Season
(April - September) for Movement of the Anticyclones along the Kara
Axis (.888 - 1915). 1 - Centers of the anticyclones, 2 - High-
p)'essure ridge, 3 - Cyclone centers, 4 - Pressure-formed cyclonic
cf 'acters .
Figure 3. Combined Chart of the Synoptic Position of the Days With Strong
Wind over the Finnis Gulf, Ladoga Sea, and Onega Sea.
CONFIDENTIAL
PL'8r rGI1mIAI
wi1u1 IIDLII~INL
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/10/19: CIA-RDP80-00809A000600390274-5