BRIEFING OF DR. BREZEINSKI

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 25, 1979
• Content Type: MF

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25 April 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
John J. Hicks
Deputy Director, National Foreign
Assessment Center
SUBJECT Briefing of Dr. Brzezinski
In the interest of keeping NFAC people informed,
here is the outline I used yesterday to brief
Dr. Brzezinski on NFAC's efforts to improve the quality
of analysis. I'm glad to say that he'expressed approval
that progress is being made. He also commented that
many of our National Intelligence Estimates are well
done and that they contain much analysis and intelligence
of value. Please pass these comments on to the people in
your charge.
All of the above is
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{ o n is s
Attachment:
As stated
Distribution:
1 - D/OCR
1 - D/OCO
1 - D/OER
1 - D/OGCR
1 - D/OIA
1 - D/OPA
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SUBJECT: Briefing of Dr. Brzezinski
Distribution (continued)
1 - D/OSI
1 - D/OSR
1 - D/OWI
1 - NIO/AF
ail - NIO/CH
1 - NIO/CF
1 - NIO/EA
1 - NIO/LA
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - NIO/NP
1 - NIO/PE
1 - NIO/SS
1 - NIO/USSR-WE
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1 - NIO/WE
1 - C/AS
1 - C/Admin Staff
1 - C/Cong. Supp. Staff
1 - C/Coord. Staff
1 - C/Plans $ Programs Staff
1 - C/R&E Staff
1 - C/SALT Supp. Staff
1 - CAR
1 - C/PPG
1 - Ex. Sec., Senior Review Panel
1 - Ex. Sec., Production Board
1 -
NFAC 1 - MAG
1 - SA/D/NFAC
1 - NFAC Registry
1 - DD/NFAC Chrono
1 - JDG Chrono
NFAC/~
jaf/4080 (25 April 79)
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25 April 1979
Improving the Quality of Analysis
I. Responsiveness.
A. National Intelligence Topics
1. We have completed a review of production re-
sponsive to the Topics. A report has been
forwarded to PRC(I) members.
2. We are updating the Current Topics. The up-
dated version has been forwarded to PRC(I)
members for approval.
3. We aim by August 1979 to develop the next
Topics list and complete an annual assessment
of the process.
1. Regular meetings between Bob Gates, NFAC, NIO,
and State Department Officers.
2. Political intelligence working group--Aaron,
Carlucci, and Newsom.
3. DCI's weekly meetings with the President, you,
Vance, and Brown.
C. The Review Panel provides advice and critical comment.
D. Mechanisms to provide for anticipation and alterna-
tive hypotheses.
1. The NIO/Warning has instituted the Alert Memo-
randum, a vehicle to signal the Community's
concern over potentially troubling situations
and their implications for the US. An NFAC
notice, Guidelines for Alert Memoranda, was
issued on 12 March 1979.
2. To date, the following alert memorandum have
been issued:
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Iran 29 Nov 1978
Iran 5 Dec 1978
Argentina-Chile:
Beagle Channel Dispute 8 Dec 1978
China-Vietnam 5 Jan 1979
China-Vietnam-USSR 19 Jan 1979
Pakistan 8 Feb 1979
China-Vietnam-USSR 14 Feb 1979
Iran 1 Mar 1979
Lebanon 2 Mar 1979
Egypt-Libya 29 Mar 1979
3. Regional NIO meetings
Aim is to sensitize Community to warning.
NIOs meet with their Community counterparts
to discuss potential situations inimical
to US interests.
-- Participants are encouraged to examine
less likely as well as more likely outcomes
of particular situations.
4. Charter for National Intelligence Warning System
has been written and will be placed on NFIB
agenda for May.
Mission is to advise and assist DCI with
regard to warning intelligence and to
coordinate warning activities of the
Community.
-- Sets up Warning Working Group, chaired
by NIO/W and made up of senior officers
of DIA, NSA, CIA, INR, Office of Secre-
tary of Defense, Collection Tasking Staff.
-- NIO/W supervises Strategic Warning Staff,
which prepared watch reports.
5. Two memoranda on "Selected International
Trends" have been published. Their purpose
is to highlight key trends that the DCI might
want to bring to the attention of the President.
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26 February 1979 Zaire, Egypt-Libya,
Morocco, USSR-India,
Rhodesia, Turkey, El
Salvador, Indonesia
3 April 1979 China-Vietnam, Kampuchea,
Namibia, Italy, Malta,
Nuclear Proliferation
6. We are starting an NFAC publication for al-
ternative, off-beat views, an analyst-to-
analyst publication to provide an additional
avenue for expression of views. Editorial
staffing is under way.
IT. Quality Control
A. DD/NFA's contribution--stress on analysis in depth.
B. Review Panel providing critical review at key points
in the process.
C. The DD/NFA's Production Board is operating under the
management of a newly appointed Executive Secretary
(Bruce Clarke). Planning, scheduling and review of
National Intelligence Estimates, Interagency Intel-
ligence Memoranda, and other significant reports
are now being accomplished through this mechanism.
D. Expert Help From Outside
1. Roster of Consultants to NIOs. So far, ucon- 25X1
sultants have been cleared and engaged. Their
expertise breaks down as follows:
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These consultants work closely with analysts.
They meet with small groups several times a
year to comment on work in progress, to help
in concept forming stages, and to provide ad-
ditional insights from their unique perspectives.
2. Scholars in Residence
Noted analysts work with us for 1-2 years
and then return to their former academic
posts.
They may also become
the programs, as did 25X1A
University). He completed a 2-year tour
as a scholar-in-residence last August
and has returned to teaching. He worked
with us on questions of the Soviet suc-
cession.
I is now on board and
working ?in the Office of Economic Re-
search. His specialty is the Soviet
economy.
is working with the NIO for the USSR
and Eastern Europe. His specialty is
Soviet nationalities, but he is also
helping with our language program. He
has been with us since September.
work on Soviet relations with states that 25X1
border the USSR.
III. Long Term Efforts to Develop NFAC Capabilities
A. During 1978, we conducted an inventory of our pro-
duction capability. We found that there have been
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three major forces at work on us, affecting our use
of manpower resources:
1. Demands for short deadline responses have
been steadily increasing.
2. Military analysis has increased in complexity,
especially on arms control related matters for
instance.
3. Economic pressures on and within America have
increased demands for intelligence on foreign
economies, energy, trade, and resources. The
work of economists has also increased in com-
plexity.
B. These pressures have eroded our capabilities in
certain areas.
1. The number and quality of the people who work
on areas other than the USSR and China are
thin in many places.
2. Demands for current intelligence continue
to impinge on resources that otherwise could
be applied to studied research and analysis,
especially among our political and economic
analysts.
C. Deployment of Resources
1. We are developing priorities among countries,
regions, and topics and we are keying our de-
ployment and development of resources to
those priorities.
a. The priorities are derived from your
feedback to us, the National Intelligence
Topics, and guidance from others concern-
ing area and topical interests of import
to our Government.
b. We are also at work on a dynamic personnel
inventory of our analytical requirements,
standards, and incentives.
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c. We are using the priorities and associated
requirements to determine how many expert
analysts are needed on specific areas and
topics, how they can best be arranged,
and where these resources will come from.
D. Specific programs to strengthen expertise
1. We have established Senior Intelligence Specialist
positions at the GS-15 and -16 level, providing
career incentives and standards for analysts.
2. We are stepping up training of several kinds.
a. Foreign languages.
b. Foreign residence experiences.
C. Analytical techniques and methodologies.
d. Management and leadership.
E. Physical support of the analytical process
Project SAFE (Support for the Analyst's Files
Environment) is a must program to help strengthen
our production capabilities through automation
of the flow, filing, search and retrieval of
intelligence reporting.
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