NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 2 APRIL 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010117-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 117
• Publication Date: April 2, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
n a Intelligence
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National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
CPAC ,V([)( ' R7-077(
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Central America: Salvadoran Political Maneuvering. . . . . 1
Mauritius-UK: Agreement on Diego Garcia. . . . . . . . . . 11
South Korea: Arson Suspects Apprehended. . . . . . . . . . 12
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CENTRAL AMERICA: Salvadoran Political Maneuvering
Junta President Duarte is trying to preserve a role for his
Christian Democrats in the new government
In Guatemala, the new junta still has made no firm
commitment on a timetable for transition to a civilian government.
The Soviet Ambassador to Nicaragua is supporting a negotiated solu-
tion to regional conflicts.
The cogoverning Christian Democrats have publicly
called upon the rightist parties to join them in dis-
cussing the formation of the new Salvadoran Government.
In their manifesto, the Christian Democrats noted that
they received a plurality in all but one of the country's
14 departments. Duarte has called for a mass rally
today to underscore popular support for the Christian
Democrats.
//The military, meanwhile, is maintaining a low politi-
cal profile after successfully providing security for the
elections. The armed forces reportedly made no attempt
to influence the electoral outcome.//
Comment: The Christian Democrats' actions are
calculated to undercut the rightist claim of a popular
electoral victory. Today's rally is likely to be well
attended and probably will be peaceful, although there
is some potential for clashes with rightist supporters.
The military's apparent political neutrality during
the balloting will contribute to improving its domestic
and international image. Furthermore, the results should
reduce any pressures by rightist officers to stage a
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stitutional procedures.
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Junta President Rios Montt remains vague and non-
committal concerning a return to constitutional process
and the possibility of new elections. In a meeting early
this week with the US Ambassador, Rios Montt stressed that
the junta was still selecting cabinet members and gave no
indication of how long it will take to reinstitute con-
noncommittal.
Meanwhile, leaders of the centrist Christian Demo-
cratic and rightwing Movement of National Liberation
parties presented Rios Montt with a document outlining
suggested steps to constitutional rule, but again he was
Liberation.
Comment: Rios Montt probably will need to make a
statement concerning eventual civilian rule to alleviate
apprehensions about the intentions of the junta. Most
political party leaders are not pushing for early elec-
tions, however, because they believe this would benefit
the wealthier and better organized Movement of National
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//Buenos Aires was unresponsive to UK and US diplo-
matic efforts yesterday to move the dispute onto a dip-
lomatic track. At the emergency UN Security Council
session last night, Argentina defended its claims to
sovereignty over the islands.//
//The Argentines enjoy a preponderance of military
strength in the area and could deploy as many as 500 to
1,000 well-armed naval infantry troops to the Falklands,
with the probable objectives of securing Port Stanley
and the nearby airfield to prevent reinforcement by the
UK.//
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//British forces in the islands include about 80
lightly armed marines, and the able bodied among the
predominantly male 1,800 civilians are organized into a
home guard unit, which would probably also resist.
embody these attributes even more than his predecessors.//
LL
T ey are impelled both by strategic in-
erests and a strong sense of nationalism. Galtieri may
made in February with disregard.//
//The President reacts vigorously to challenges and
has approached the Falklands issue with a strong belief
that Argentina deserves greater respect on the world
stage. He was especially stung, therefore, by his per-
ception that the British treated his negotiating proposals
//In a fighting mood, Galtieri and the junta quickly
came to view the impasse as a military rather than diplo-
matic problem, and they may now be too far committed to
permit pulling back without, serious loss of prestige.
The British have made clear, however, that any invasion
will be met with force. They will use their UN diplo-
matic efforts to justify military countermeasures.//
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Suriname's new civilian government, a mix of moderates and
radicals controlled by the leftist military, will be hampered bu
racial tensions and strained relations with the Netherlands.
//Prime Minister Neijhorst also will serve as Min-
ister of Finance, a post he held in ousted President
Chin A Sen's government. The new Council of Ministers
is subordinate to the military-controlled Policy Center.//
Before announcing the new government, the military
rescinded the "state of war" decreed after the coup
attempt on 11 March. The decree, coinciding with dis-
closures of backing by ethnic East Indians for,the coup,
had raised fears of possible racial violence.
Comment: The coup attempt probably caused Army
Commander Bouterse to defer introducing radical changes
and issue the new "Transitional Constitution" defining
citizen rights and forbidding discrimination in an effort
to reduce domestic tensions and deprive opponents of an
issue. The new government, however, may find it diffi-
cult to calm the East Indians, who remember the racially
polarized politics of the 1970s.
The Policy Center's dominance and the appointment
of several military officers to ministerial positions
give Bouterse power to govern without restriction. The
handpicked civilian ministers will be easily manipulated
by the military to continue Suriname's adoption of more
socialist policies, which most already favor.
Neijhorst probably will have to agree to restore
some democratic procedures in order to secure the devel-
opment aid already promised by the Dutch, the former
colonial rulers. The Hague is angered by the dismissal
of Chin A Sen and the execution of one of the coup
leaders and has postponed talks on assistance programs
indefinitely.
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MAURITIUS-UK: Agreement on Diego Garcia
The UK and Mauritius have agreed that London will
pay almost $8 million compensation to the 1,200 displaced
inhabitants of Diego Garcia, who since 1965 have been
resettled in Mauritius. The Mauritian Government will
provide land for the Diego Garcians. Paul Berenger, the
leftist leader of Mauritius's largest opposition party,
was a member of the committee representing the displaced
people, and he reportedly concurred in the agreement.
Comment: //The accord resolves a nettlesome problem
and deprives the opposition of one issue with which to
attack the moderate government of Prime Minister Ramgoolam
before the general elections in June. The settlement,
however, will not prevent the opposition from charging
Ramgoolam with wrongly giving away Mauritius's claim to
sovereignty over Diego Garcia or from criticizing the
US military presence on the island. If Berenger wins
the election, he will continue to assert Mauritian ter-
ritorial claims and will insist that the US deal with
Mauritius rather than with the UK regarding Diego Garcia.//
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SOUTH KOREA: Arson Suspects Apprehended
still probing this possibility.
South Korean police have captured most of the 13
dissidents suspected of involvement in the recent burn-
ing of the American Cultural Center in Pusan. The
police state that those arrested are college students
who hoped to damage US-Korean ties and create social
turmoil. No direct North Korean involvement in the
incident has been uncovered, although authorities are
campus restiveness.
Comment: The government's use of over 100,000
police in the investigation underscores its determination
to discourage any similar anti-American behavior in the
future. Authorities will use the incident as an excuse
to crack down even harder on student demonstrations
during the spring semester, traditionally a period of
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