REPUBLIC-LEVEL TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP08C01297R000500010002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 16, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 20, 1990
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012
/10/18: CIA-RDPO8C01297R000500010002-6
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
20 December 1990
Republic-level Territorial Conflicts In the USSR
Summary
25X1
Territorial disputes based on past borders or on ethnic factors are
surfacing in all fifteen republics of the USSR as ethnic balkanization accelerates
and the center's ability to maintain discipline erodes. While most republic
governments have soft-pedalled ethnic disputes over boundaries, intractable
disputes--such as the status of Nagomo-Karabakh--and demands by ethnic
groups such as the Russians and Gagauz in Moldova for sovereignty over the
territory they inhabit are likely by ethnic groups such as the Russians and
Gagauz in Moldova for sovereignty over the territory they inhabit are likely to
persist. In the eyes of central authorities, such disputes serve to emphasize the
republics the dangerous of striking off on their own, efforts by minority groups to
establish their own; administrative units or to break away from republics have
slowed or complicated independence drives in some republics. On the other
hand, violence accompanying such disputes could require additional costly
military intervention and could also increase the number of refugees in the
USSR The possibility that republics will involve themselves in international
border issues probably also is unsettling to Moscow. The consequences of border
disputes--such as possible appeals for refugee aid--are likely to be more
important to the United States than the conflicts themselves, although the United
States will robably be asked to acknowledge Lithuania's current borders.
This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Soviet Analysis.
Information available as of 20 December 1990 was used ill its pre s aration. Comments and questions are
welcome and may be directed to Chief, Internal Politics Division
SOV M ##-#####
25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP08C01297R000500010002-6
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
10
Population: 3,937,000
Area: 13,012 sq. mi.
LDAVIA
"shinev
ROMANIA
uc crest
THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP08C01297R000500010002-6
MOLDAVIA
History: Under pad with Germany, disputed
region of Bessarabia acquired by the Soviet
Union from Romania in 1940. It then became
part of the republic of Moldavia.
Population: Ethnically and linguistically
Romanian.
Nationalist trends: The border crossing into
Romania was simplified, as demanded by
populace. In 1989, republic won the right to
spell in Roman letters instead of Cyrillic.
There are some calls for reunification with
Romania, but this is still considered a fringe
sentiment. Moldavians and Gagauz, who want
autonomy, have clashed recently in the south.
Nakhichevan
/Residents tore down border
fences on New Year's Eve to gain
access to fertile land and establish
contacts with fellow Azeris in Iran. !Influx
of Azeri refugees from Nagorno-Karcabakh
had contributed to tensions. Border with
Iran is now sealed, with formal checkpoints.
In what amounts to a symbolic gessture
against the Soviet Army crackdown on
Azerbaijan, Nakhichevan declared
independence from the
Soviet Union
Jan. 20.
LITHU
BEL
Ma
TURKEY
Leningrad
Polarization is growing between
conservative leadership and increasing
radicalized population. Widespread
rationing introduced right after
Sverdlovsk wine riot -- and after Estonia
whose prices just went up, started buying
cheaper Leningrad goods.
scow Tyumen
Top Communist bosses resigned
Jan: 18 as social tensions heig
htened.
Volgograd
Social tension is mounting over food
shortages and ineffectual parry leadership.
First secretary Vladimir Ilyich Kalashnikov
resigned Jan. 24, after profile in
Ogonyok magazine depicted him as most
incompetent party first secretary in country.
ARMENIA
AZERBAI AN
Labor Unrest
Coal miners in Vorkuta (Arctic),
Kuzbass (Siberia), and Donbass (Ukraine
are all working now, after extended
strikes beginning last summer.
But Kuzbass miners, feeling governrne
, has not kept promises made to settle
strike, are reported ready toxesume stoppage:
Promises include worker s4'-management..e;'
and chances to earn harcPurrencyl, The
metalkagical industry- in tits Urcal3
Ukraine is also heating up. Old factories are, ?-
damaging the environment. Living standards'
are poor. Profits are down due to the
increased cost of electricity.
KAZAKHSTAN Svn New
o k
On
Year's e,
of wine and vodk i
cheese, fish, sous
appeared on
in this and ot er cti
with goods o demo
Kuzbass ? -
rest
is t:d protest
ores. Within hours', wine,
p lock
, and other foodreperod
s
s. t analysts doubt officials
es wil be able to come up
nd i h future.
Thursday, February 1, 1990
GORBACHEV'S CHALLENGE
Soviet Hot Spots
Ethnic unrest and popular dissatisfaction over a declining economy continue to spell trouble
for Moscow ? Baltic republics to the west call for independence, Armenia and Azerbaijan to the
south fight over rival claims to territory, and the threat of disruptive strikes looms
tit0
By Linda Feldmann
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
MOSCOW
FOR Soviet leader Mikhail Gor-
bachev, crisis has overlapped
crisis in the first weeks of 1990.
On Dec. 31, the Azeris of the au-
tonomous republic of Nakhichevan
began tearing down border fences
with Iran ? an act unprecedented in
Soviet history. Local chapters of the
Azerbaijan Popular Front deposed
Communist leaders in several cities.
By mid-January, long-brewing
tensions between Azerbaijan and the
neighboring republic of Armenia es-
calated to a point of virtual civil war,
after Azeris killed dozens of Arnie-
turns in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital,
and sent thousands fleeing.
And when the Kremlin feared
that Azerbaijan's nationalist Popular
Front was set to take control of Baku,
it sent thousands of troops to reassert
Soviet power. Now Azerbaijan's par-
liament is talking of secession.
As civil war loomed in the Tran-
scaucasus, the Soviet leader and oth-
er Politburo members were on a mis-
sion to the rebellious Baltic republic
of Lithuania, which is in the midst of
its own bloodless revolution to re-
establish its prewar nationhood. Mr.
Gorbachev's visit, sparked by the
Lithuanian Communist Party's deci-
sion in December to break away from
Moscow's control, failed to dampen
the Lithuanians' enthusiasm.
All around the Soviet Union, local
leaders are losing their authority. In
the last two weeks, six regional party
bosses have been forced to resign. In
all three Baltic republics, pro-inde-
AFGHANISTAN
Population: 5,000,015
Area: 26,911 sq. mi.
GEORGIA
Nationalist sentiment is strong, but political
opposition is fragmented. In November,
the Georgian parliament declared the republic's right
to secede. Last month, pro-secessionist forces held a
two-week vigil and hunger strike at a government
building. Communists are striving to overcome
hostility engendered by use of poison gas to break
up April 9, 1989, demonstration in Tbilisi.
Ossetians vs. Georgians: South Ossetian
activists seek language and cultural rights, plus
unification with North Ossetia, made part of
Russian Federation by Stalin. Interior Ministry troops
are periodically deployed to keep peace.
Ahlchazians vs. Georgians: Frequent clashes
occur throughout Abkhazian autonomous republic in
a battle to upgrade status to union republic.
ARMENIA
Population: Approximately 3 million
Area: 11,500 sq. mi.
(slightly larger than Maryland)
AZERBAIJAN
Population: Approximately 7 million
Area: 33,400 sq. mi.
(about the size of Maine)
Central Asia: Tension mounts over declining living
standards, high unemployment, serious ecological
damage (Aral Sea dying); poor health care, and corrupt
leadership. ci '-
Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan: Interior Ministry troops xerot
stationed here to keep peace after murderous riots against
Meskhetian Turks last June.
Novi Uzen, Kazakhstan: Kazakhs rioted last
summer over concern that migrant workers
were taking plum jobs.
Population: 49,755,000
Area: 233,089
Locked in virtual civil war with neighboring
Azerbaijan over disputed region of Nagorno-
Karabakh, a territory in Azerbaijan inhabited
largely by Armenians. Paramilitary groups
have formed to protect this small republic,
which is surrounded by historical enemies
Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan. Armenians
blame Gorbachev for failure to protect them
from pogroms in Azerbaijan and for slow
pace of reconstuction after devastating
December 1988 earthquake.
AZERBAIJAN
Fighting war on two fronts: against Armenia,
over Nagorno-Karabakh, and against the
Kremlin, which sent Army troops Jan. 20
to force their way into capital of Baku when
Communist control appeared in danger.
Influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh
seen as heightening social tensions that led
to anti-Armenian pogroms in Baku starting
Jan. 13. Communist Party has been
overthrown by Popular Front in several cities
and towns. Statues of Lenin destroyed.
UKRAINE
The nationalist organization Rukh is contesting March 4
local elections on the slogan "Councils without Communists."
Rukh pushes for preservation of Ukrainian culture arid
legalization of Ukraine's Uniate Church. Since Lvov's
Transfiguration Church declared itself to be Uniate
Oct. 29, some 200 churches have come under the control
of Uniates. On Jan. 16, Uniate and Russian Orthodox
representatives met for the first time in a possible signal
that legalization may be in works.
ESTONIA
History: Independent nation from 1918 to 1940. Hitler-Stalin Pact of August 1939 led to annexation by
the Soviet Union,
Population: 60 percent Estonian, 30 percent Russian, 10 percent other.
Drive for independence: Parliament is expected soon to eliminate Communist Party's constitutional
guarantee on power, thus formally recognizing the ex:isting multiparty system. Some 20 different political
parties are active, including three social democratic movements, which are gaining popularity.
Plans for economic self-sufficiency are the most developed of the three Baltic republics. Estonia expected to
be first to introduce its own currency. Residency requirements for voting thought discriminatory by
non Estonian population led to strikes last year.
LATVIA
History: Independent nation from 1918 to 1940. Hitler-Stalin Pact of August 1939 led to
annexation by the Soviet Union.
Population: 52 percent Latvian, 48 percent Slavic and other.
Drive for independence: Last month parliament canceled the Communist Party's leading role.
The Popular Front, a progressive multi-ethnic coalition, won a majority of seats in December elections
to local councils. The front is openly working toward an independent Latvia.
ilnius LITHUANIA
History: Independent nation from 1918 to 1940. Hitler-Stalin Pact of August 1939 led to annexation by
Soviet Union.
Population: 80 percent Lithuanian, 10 percent Russian, 7 percent Polish.
Drive for independence: Gorbachev's recent sit to republic failed to dampen the desire of a sizable
majority to reestablish statehood, following the decision by the republic's Communist Party to declare
independence from Communist Party of Soviet Union. During the visit, 300,000 people rallied peacefully.
Moscow's plan for a "law on secession" is seen largely as a device to hinder the independence drive.
pendence movements look set to take
control of local councils in elections
to be held in the next two months.
The Soviet leader also faces long-
simmering dissatisfaction over the
declining standard of living. When
popular discontent over food and al-
cohol shortages has reached a boiling
point? such as in Swerdlovsk on New
Year's Eve ? people have taken to the
streets. Labor unrest threatens to re-
appear, as workers claim that
government promies made to nego-
tiate an end to lastt year's dramatic
coal strikes have mot been fulfilled.
The issue of offiicial privilege has
also ignited passiorns. For example,
there's the tale of thie regional execu-
tive committee officcial in Chernigov,
Ukraine, whose trafffic mishap Jan. 6
led to his firing ancd expulsion from
the party. It seems the townspeople
who gathered at Valery Zaika's acci-
Graphiccs by
Shirley Horn - Staff
dent discovered meat and other rar-
ities in the trunk of his car. The an-
gry crowd dragged the car to the
front of the regional party committee
building and held a spontaneous
demonstration. For the people, this
was the final outrage. Soon there-
after, a string of party officials, in-
cluding the first secretary, were fired.
Some analysts suggest that angry
masses demanding reform are ex-
actly what Gorbachev needs to push
perestroika (restructuring) along. And
that the ouster of local Communist
Party officials left over from "the
years of stagnation" (Leonid Brezh-
nev's rule) is no great loss.
But as Gorbachev heads into a key
meeting of the party Central Com-
mittee Feb. 5 and 6, the question re-
mains whether he'll be able to con-
tain the surge in popular aspirations
released by his own reform policies.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/18: CIA-RDP08C01297R000500010002-6
Lr-