NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 18 JUNE 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010091-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2010
• Sequence Number: 91
• Publication Date: June 18, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Geem4
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
18 June 1983
18 une
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Contents
Japan: Nakasone Expecting Election Victory ..........................
3
Libya: Overtures for Arab Unity ..............................................
Spain: Proposal on CSCE ........................................................
5
6
Turkey: Elections Law Enacted .............................................. 11
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18 June 1983
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JAPAN: Nakasone Expecting Election Victory
Prime Minister Nakasone's Liberal Democratic Party holds a
commanding lead in the polls in the campaign for Upper House
elections on 26 June.
Polls conducted this month show growing support for both the
Liberal Democratic Party and Nakasone's cabinet. One poll places
support for the party at the highest point ever, and another shows a
majority of the people support the cabinet.
Comment: The surge in popular support for Nakasone partly
reflects favorable reactions to his trips in May to Southeast Asia and
to the US. A substantial victory would strengthen his hand in dealing
with opposition parties on economic issues. It also might be seen as a
vote of confidence in his positions on security and national defense,
despite negative media coverage on those issues.
Although the polls are favorable, two rounds of local elections
earlier this year and the usual voter apathy in Upper House elections
could work against the Liberal Democratic Party. Some party
members view the elections primarily as a referendum on Nakasone's
policies,
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LIBYA: Overtures for Arab Unity
Libyan leader Qadhafi, following his humiliating setbacks at the
recent OAU summit, is pursuing better relations with all Arab
governments.
After departing abruptly from Addis Ababa last week, Qadhafi
made impromptu, visits to North Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and
Syria. In each country he stressed the necessity of Arab unity in the
face of the dangers posed by Israel.
Since Qadhafi's return to Libya, the official Libyan news agency
has announced that Libya is playing a "major role in the general pan-
Arab mobilization" against Israel. It also has announced that no
problems exist in relations with Morocco because Libya had
discharged its duty to the Polisario Front and because the Western
Sahara issue is now under OAU jurisdiction. In addition, the news
agency accused an Iranian newspaper of "deliberately distorting" an
interview with Qadhafi that had quoted him as condemning the Iraqi
regime.
Comment: Qadhafi probably is trying to regain prestige by
appealing for unity in the Arab world. He also was shaken by the
Lebanese-Israeli agreement and genuinely believes that Arab unity is
the only effective way to counter the Israelis. He will continue to insist
that the Arabs have to consider a military option against Israel.
The news agency's items suggest that Qadhafi's stress on Arab
unity could lead to a cutoff in support for the Polisario and to a
softening in Libya's hostile stance against Iraq. Qadhafi's conciliatory
mood may begin to evaporate, however, as he realizes that few if any
of his fellow Arabs are prepared to associate themselves with a
military confrontation with Israel.
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SPAIN: Proposal on CSCE
Spain yesterday proposed a compromise to bring the CSCE
review conference in Madrid to a successful conclusion.
Prime Minister Gonzalez presented a package of provisions on
human rights, implementation of the final act, and mandate for a
Conference on Disarmament in Europe. The proposal drops many
Western amendments to the draft concluding document prepared.by
the neutral participants, but it retains the most important one-a call
for a followup meeting on human contacts, including family
reunification. Spain also proposes delaying the beginning of the
Conference on Disarmament in Europe from November 1983 to
January 1984.
The Allies welcomed the Spanish announcement, and most
neutrals reportedly are generally pleased with it. The Soviet
delegation has difficulty with the proposal, however, because Madrid
makes specific recommendations rather than general comments. The
US delegation reports East European delegates seemed uncertain
when the plan was presented.
Comment: The Allies probably will want the US to accept
Gonzalez's package as the basis for a final agreement. They
presumably also view it as an opportunity to put the East on the
defensive. Although most NATO members wanted to convene a
Conference on Disarmament in Europe before INF deployments begin
in December, they almost certainly believe that a delay will not create
a public relations problem.
The negative initial reaction from the Soviets probably was a
result of their displeasure over the delay in the opening date for the
disarmament conference and over the proposed followup meeting on
human contacts. The Soviet delegation, apparently surprised by the
Spanish action, probably is waiting for instructions from Moscow.
Gonzalez presumably hopes that announcing his initiatives now
will help prepare the way for his visit to Washington. He also hopes to
influence EC officials meeting in Stuttgart to discuss Spanish
membership in positive terms.
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The military government has just enacted a new electoral law
requiring that a political party receive at least 10 percent of the
nationwide vote to qualify for representation in parliament. To
overcome this hurdle, the US Embassy reports government and
business leaders are urging that half a dozen fledgling political parties
consolidate their efforts. The press states that interparty negotiations
are already under way but casts doubt on the chances of major
consolidations any time soon. The law also apportions the
400 assembly seats according to population, while assuring the
smaller of the country's 67 provinces one seat each.
Comment: The law, which commits the military government to
hold a general election on 6 November, is designed to promote a
more stable parliamentary system by favoring larger parties. Even
with the new statute in place, however, President Evren appears
worried about the proliferation of parties. He may put even more
pressure on existing groups to join forces. In any case, the
promulgation of the law sets the stage for the restoration of civilian
rule this fall.
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11 18 June 1983
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