KHRUSHCHEV'S COMEBACK

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6
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RIPPUB
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C
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25
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
May 2, 2006
Sequence Number: 
16
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Publication Date: 
June 24, 1963
Content Type: 
MEMO
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Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16 CIA-RDP85TOO875ROO20002000 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: ~ UIA-KUFbb LUUbtbKUUZUUUZUUU 14~ ~ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 LJ/\ 10 C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T.I-A-L CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFF ME OF NATIONAL ESTDv1TCS 24 June 1963 STAFF H30R NDUM NO. 37-63 STJ SECT: Ithrushchev's CoanebLQ NOTE TO ME BOARD This memorandum was prepared on the initiative of FE Staff., end Is distributed for the information of the Board. Ito main Points will be incorporated into the draft of a forthcoming CIA assessment of current problems and pressures confronting IChrushchev. C-0-Iwo'-1-D-E-N-T-I-A-L Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 ? 25X1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 24 June 1963 STAFF r toRANDuM No. 37-63 SUBJECT: Khrushchev's Comeback A. Anticipating success for his Cuban venture, Khrushchev during the early fall of 1962 appeared to be laying the ground- work for a number of major political and econoniic initiatives. It became apparent soon after the Central Committee plenum in November, hcwever9 that his plans were being effectively stymied both by circuwstances, in the form of a series of difficult pro- blems which faced him in the wake of Cuba, and politics, in the form of a dubious and probably obstinate Presidium. By February and March, his career seemed to have reached a post-1957 lcwpoint; either because he was convinced by a generally discouraging trend of events or because he bad little choice but to acceed Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 to a dominant, conservative, perhaps Kozlovian view then pre- vailing in the Presidium, he gave every evidencc of being a man in retreat. B. Since mid-April or so, however, [{hruahchev appears to have been very much on the move, reasserting both the style of his personal leadership and the content of his traditional policies. And the recently concluded plenum of the Central Committee seems to have net the seal on his resurgence, which, at least in retro- spect, appears to date in the main from the vime of Kozlov's last public appearance on 10 April. In any event, his ability to come back after a series of policy failures and a period of probably great political tension, even if in part the result of good luck (Kozlov's illness), is testimony both to the inherent advantages of his position and to his skill in coping with resis- tance. It would now appear less likely than ever that Khrushchev will be seriously challenged by any of his colleagues in the foreseeable future. C, Nevertheless, a great many unresolved foreign and c1oxn stic issues will confront the Soviet leadership. The debate with the Chinese is approaching a cliraas; problems in and with Eastern Europe are growing; and foreign policy as a whole seems to be in a state Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 ssified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 of relative immobility. At home,, the question of resource allo- cation is still protab1y the subject of some debate,, and no doubt; will continue to be for some time to come,. Certain doctrinal Issues with strong political overtones still seem to be subject to some controversy. And,, in the area of cultural policy and the proper approach to the era of Stalin j, uncertainty and dibat _xee- ni ent ie, no doubt widespread, But on most of these fields,, ! i ushr:hev is once again setting the dominant tone and I)rovie tig ti'.,a party with guit eines for action which are consistent his traditional riethods and policies. Further,, as would seem t!. be demonstrated by the recent =mincof Bxezhnev and Podgorny to the necretariate,he appears to be in firm control of party personnel appointments. -3- 25X1 eclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 "I have a magnifieant impression of Comrade Khrushchev . . . . He is extraorditnarily human . He has an extraordinary mental energy, and a com- plete, complete, complete mental lucidity . . . . without a doubt one of the most brilliant intellects that I have ever known .. . . a militant revolu- tionary . . . a veritable authority on economic problems . . . . There exists fl_n the Soviet leadershi7 a spirit of collective disciwsion; yet acidot this . . . one is quite aware of Khrushchev's authority and prestige in the collective manage- ment . . . .'' --Fide?. Castro, Havana, 4 June 1963 1. A variety of recent signs, not the least of which is cited above, suggests that Khruehchev is well on the road to P013t- .et#i recovery. We have estimated that Ithrushchev suffered a decline in preeminence during the winter and early spring, partly as a result of a "conservative consensus" among his top colleagues; but we have also estimated that his temperament is not "amenable to collectivity" and that he lots likely to move again in order to 25X1 reassert his dominance,, Recent, developments in domestic politics, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 P'1_..a /''_.-.. Ac__ n_I____ nnAn Inn/A/n . f'IA r r\rc]rTnnCf~rnnnnnnnnnnnA!_n !_n the economy, and ideology tend, we think, to confirm both of these judgments. Since perhaps mid-April or no, Khrushchev appears to have been very much the man on the move, reasserting both the style of his personal leadership and the content of h?1e traditional policies. And thr.- recently concluded plenum of the ('entr' l Committee seems to have net the seal on his resurgence. 2,, There follows a more or Less chronological review of some of the principal signs of Kbrushchev's political malaise of last winter and manifestations of his recovery during the spring. A number of perhaps relevant developments in the military area, in- cluding some personnel changes, the Fenkovsky case, and disputes over doctrine, and the general air of uncertainty in foreign affairs, are not specifically examined here. But they have been taken into account, and do not appear to contradict the general trend of domestic events. The focus of this paper is thus concentrated mainly on those factors -- including Kozlov, chemistry, culture, Castro, and the consumer -- which seem most clearly -co have played at least a symptomatic Kole in Khrushchevfs recent faU and rise. This criterion -- clarity -- precludes another area of examination, viz, certain possible indications of high-level political infighting, such as the listings of Presidium member Kirilenko out of alpha- betical order by some Soviet newspapers. Ibfightiog almost cer- tainly exists r,nd may be reflected in this esot ric way, but such evidence is usually more intriguing than it is conclusive. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 25X1 The Nadir 3. Anticipating success for his C'tban venture, Khruahchev in the early fall seemed to be laying the groundvork for a number of major l,olit&eal and economic iritf atives o The alleged dis- covery of a Lenin statement which stressed the nrimncy of economics over politics was intended in part to establish the doctrinrl frame- work for structural changes in party and state management of the economy. And the burgeoning anti-Stalin (and anti-Stalinist) campaign, high-lighted by Khrushchev's decision to publish Solzhenitsyn's novel, One Day aid Yevtushenko t e poem, "Stalin Hetrs", may have been intended to net the stage "or a number of political changes, includir , perhaps, a shakeup of the top leadership. L. Despite the failure in Cuba, Khrushchev appears in the main to have gotten his way at the plenum of the Central Committee held in November. His plans for a reorganization of the party along funetioal (industrial and agricultural) lines and his proposals concerning changes in top state economic organs were for the most pr.,rt adopted by the plenum. His economic plans, particularly his emphasis on the need to give greater priority to agriculture and to the chemical '.ndustry (and less to the steel industry), both areas of prime interest to the consumer, were also endorsed, though Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 25X1 probably not in full. And big political plans, while still obscure, have been reflected in part by the plenum's docision to expx,ud the party Secretariat, establish a number of new top party bureaus as overseers of specific economic areas, and create a new control commission (headed by Khrushchev's protege, Shelepin) to ride herd on both party and state bureaucracies. A]. of these moves could have facilitated an attempt by Kbrushchev to increase hie power at the expense of that still exercised by his senior colleagues on the Presidium. 5. It became apparent soon after the November plenum, however, that Khrushchev's plaits were being effectively stymied by a com- bination of: concern stTrnu:ta ted by the Cuban crisis; confusion occasioned by the various reorganizations; turmoil provoked by the destalinize,tion campaign; end political resistance evoked by the ftnctional split in the party, the new doctrinal emphasis on economics, and Khrushchev's apparent efforts at aggrandizement, His prestige already l- .fir damaged by a numlbor of policy failures, and his own self-carl'idence no doubt )ndly shaken,, Khrushchev did not react positively. The cotlbination of clroumsimnce, in trc fora of a series of problems which confronted him in the wake of Cuba, and politics, In the form of a dubious and probably obstinate Presidium, seated to be too much for him. - 7- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 sified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 25X1 6. Thereafter, in December and Jttnu&y, Khrushchev's pro- grarin seemed to be subject to a process of unsystematic undoing. The anti.-Stalin campaign was abandoned; the party and state re- organization appeared to be floundering; the new party'bur?aus re- mained relatively inactive; the party state control commission was given fewer powere over party organs than it was apparently Initially intended to receive; and plans for greater emphasis on agriculture and the chemical industry were placed in cbeyrnce. By February and March., Khrushchev'n career seemed to reach a post-1957 lowpoint. Either, becausi he was convinced by the arguments of his colleagues and by the generally discouraging trend of events, or because he had little choice but to accede to the dominant view than pre- vailing in the Presiaiuvn, he gave every evidence during these two months of being a man in retreat. 7. Khrushchev's speech to bin Moscow constituents on 27 February, in which he spoke of the need to spend "enormous" sums on "military might", seemed to reflect his general discouragement. It offered the Soviet people little in the way -,f praise for past performances aid virtually not ing in the way of future; promises. In contrast, Kozlov, speaking in Leningrad only the day before, hailed both the USSR's glorious succesea and remarkable prospects and described Soviet society as the "brightest and most joyous -8- lassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 on earth." ICozlov (at one time a metallurgist) seemed to give only grudging and qualified approval to Khrushchev's plans for the chemical industry and called for large new investments in the machine building industry, (a pitch which wan to be specifically disallowed by Khrushchev in April, of which more later). Through- out this period, Kozlov was very much in evidence and Taxis state- ments and travels were well publicized in the Soviet press. 8. Next, on 8 March, Khrushchev addressed the writers. It could not have been an iasy task, for in the process of insisting on artistic conformity, he was forced to recant in two very sensi- tive areas of policy. In affect, he repudiated hie own cultural policy of some years standing, i.e. minimal party interference in the ants and at least tacit permission for the appearance of literary works more realist than socialist. And he drastically revised his previous assessments of Stalin and his era, paid tribute to Stalin's merits and Eervices, and, in effect, reversed the anti- Stalin campaign inaugurated by him only a few months bei'ore. 9. The next blow to Yhrushchev's prestige, and perhaps his power, apparently came on 13 March. A joint meeting of the party presidium and the Council of Minictera decided on that day to establish a Supreme National Economic Council provided with all the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 "necessary rights and powers for the solution of the questions connected with the work of industry and construction, and for insuring the successful fulfillment of state flans." The new organ, zubordinate to the Council of Ministers, "given orders and instvictions which must be carried out by all state bodies irrespective of their subordination." 25X1 10. This act was somewhat unusual in several respects. It was made without any prior public warning whatsoe,rer; indeed, a speech made. by the top Soviet planning official only ten days beforehand clearly indicated that even this official had not been forewarned. Further, it is highly unusual to convene the Presidium and the Council of Ministers for such purposes; normally, a decision of this magnitude px blic1y involves the Central Committee as a whole. Finally, there has been remarkably little public comment on the new Council; neither the Soviet press nor the leaders have devoted much space or time to an examination of its functions or, as would seem to be in order, an extollment of its virtues. Khrushchev himself avoided comment until late April, and then his remrks were notably unenthusiastic. Indeed, they included some direct criticism of the performance of the Council's new chief, Ustinov, in his previous Job (running the nation's defense industries). Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 U. The establishment of the new Council also appeared to contradict both the spirit and the letter of the decisions made at Khrushchev's behest by the Central Committee plenum the previous November. First of all, it seemed to shift emphasis away from greater party control and mnrngement of the economy; inter aalia, the head of the new Council was not a high-level party figure, nor was he a protege of Khrushchev's (though he may have been one of Kozlov's), Secondly, it concentrated in this man's hands all the powers previously assigned by the November plenum to the heads of the three top state economic organs (the planning council, the construction council, and the national economic council). Finally, and in complete contradiction of the injunction of Khrushchev, it gave to these three organs authority over comparable bodies in the* union republics. The whole episode reminded a number of observers (probably including some in the USSR) of a previous period in Soviet history when Khrushchev's plans for decentralization were temporarily thwarted by the anti-party group. At a low point in Khrushchev, addressing the plenum on 19 November, declared that in order to carry to its logical conclusion the responsibility of the republics for the management of national economy and its planning, it is necessary to make planninC, and the irplementation of plans fully the tasks of the ropnibli.cn, their Goo-plans and sovnarkhozes. (underscoring ours) Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Khrucahchev's career in December 1956, this group succeeded in pushing through a plan to create a central economic organ very similar to the Supreme Council, a move subsequently rescinded by Khrushchev. 12. Khrushchev left Moscow on 14 March, the day after he chaired the meeting wh,,ch established the Supreme Council. He apparently needed a change of ec:-.: a and an opportunity to publicize some of his own convictions. Accordingly, heading south, he toured a 'umber of chemical plants and advertised the notion he had no strongly expressed it: November that the development of the ehemical industry should be accelerated. "This question," Khrushchev had said then, "deserves to be discussed again at the next plenum of the Central Committee of the CPSU." But while Khrushchev vas vacationing on the Black Sea, it vas announced in Moscow on 9 April that the next plenum of the Central Committee would concern itself with ideology. 13. On the previous day, Pravda had published the party slogans for May Day; the one concerning Ytagoslavia failed to reflect Khrushchev's view of this country's status as a socialist country and,in effect, contradicted the statement made on this point in the CPSU letter of 30 March to the Communist Party of China, a Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 letter which bore the signs of Ih ushchev's authorship. Only a week before, all of the top members of the Presidtum except Khrushchev had assembled in Moscow, ostensibly to entertain a delegation from the Communist Party of France. Given the timing and the fact that there in no precedent for such an assembly in Kh ushchev's absence, together with past signs that Kozlov bad been, at best, lukewarm about the USSR's rapprochement with Yugoslavia, it is at least tempting to conclude that these leaders had reviewed the May lay slogans and that, in the process, Khrushcheu had either been outvoted or ignored. 14. It waw apparent durirg this entire period.. February and March, that a series of interrelated problems were agitating the Soviet leadership, It became so obvious, in fact, that rumors were rife of Khrushchev's imminent political demise and both Italian and Yugoslav Communistv alluded publicly to controversy within the leadership. The Italian statements were apparently prompted in part by the then impending general elections and the desire of the CPI to disassociate itself from the increasingly harsh cultural line emerging in ::1oscow. But no such motive impelled the Yugoslav correspondent in Moscow, F. Barbieri, who wrote on 10 April that the Soviets were engaged in "debates on foreign policies" and -13- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 "controversies and struggles" ovar the allocation of resources, and who implied, in general, that the Soviet leadership was in a state of disagreement and disarray. 15. Barbieri, who can be fairly characterized as a knowledgeable observer, claimed that "external factors" (which he blamed on US) had led to an increase in Soviet military ir:restments and this, in turn, had produced a 'whole complex of internal problems. Thus, he wrote, large investments in agriculture planned for 1962 and 1963 were reduced; difficulties were encountered in the effort to e.pand the chemical industry, which was supposed to become the basis for industrial modernization and a faster rate of growth in living standards; and "conflicts" between the "old and tJe new ways of Soviet development;", as exemplified by the competition for resources between the chemical and metai'Lurigical industries, were inten- sified. Barbieri did not identify Khrushchev as the leader who bad favored agriculture and the chemical industry and who had been highly critical of the "metal eaters", but did note that the formation of the Supreme National Economic Council ran counter to the decisions of the November plenum. The Ascent 16. if Khrushchev left Moscow under a cloud in mid-Nzrch, the sun had broken through by the time of his official return on - 14- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 C-O-N F I-D-E- N-T- I-A- L or about 20 Aprils. In this connection,, it would seem to be more than mere coincidence that Kozlov, who may have been the leader of conservative forces in the Presidium., made his last public appearance on 10 April at the first session of a meeting of artists in Moscow; he failed to attend the second session convened two days later. He thus was probably stricken on the 10th or 11th. In any events it was announced on the 11th that the May tiny slogan concerning Yugoslavia had been revised and it now repeated Khrushchev's formaila used in the letter to the Chinese. 17. On 17 April., Pravda seemingly prepared for Khrushchev's impending arrival with a panegyric reviewing a collection of his speeches entitled "A Major Contribution to the Theory and Practice of Communist Construction." Referring to Khrushchev as "that true Leninist" who heads the Communist Party and its Central Committee,, the editorial claimed that the publication of Khrushchev's works constituted a "significant event in the life of our party and the country." It hailed the 22nd Party '';ongress., quite clearly identified as Khrushchev's cwn., as comparable to Lenin's 2nd and 8th Congresses and as "the most outstanding event, in the history of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and of the whole world Communist and workers movement." Throughout the article., emphasis was placed on the wisdom and success of such traditional Khrushchev policies as - 15 - C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 priority for agriculture, the need for material Incentives, and the "welfare of man."* 18. This apparent revival of concern for the consumer was echoed three days later in a small, front-page item in Izvestia which announced a decision of the Supreme National Economic Council to increase by one billion rubles the planned production of con- sumers goods in 1963. This, as far as we know, was the first time that a decision of the Supreme Council had been announced. Pravda, commenting on 16 March on the decision to establish the Council, had stressed the value of the new body in terms of such matters as construction activity, the introduction of new machines, and the strengthening of state discipline; it did not refer to the production of consumers goods at a11, Thus, in his first public move, the armaments expert Ustinov, who had been named to head an agency responsible mainly for the direction of heavy Both the tone and the contents of a Pravda article which appeared on 13 Febr,iry and which dealt with the publication of earlier volumes in the Khrushchev series were of an entirely different nature. Praise was extraordinarily reserved and substance was surrounded by qualifiers. Ever; the title; com- pared to that of the April article, was non-committal: "On the Crash Front of Communist Construction." - 16 - 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 industry and construction, found himself identified with jar tops and soda siphons (two of the items named in Izvestia). This looked very much like the work of Khrushchev. 19. Khrushchev's speech of 24 April to construction and industrial workers, in which he alluded to his eventual retirement, was notable in several other respects. Much of it wan bitter, as was in a sense his election speech in February, but in this instance his bitterness was demanding rather than defensive. In a sense, he seemed to be roasting those who had ruled during his "absence"; he lamented the sorry state of affairs in economic management, insisted that something be done about it, and criticized the heads of the top economic organs by name (including Ustinov). He reiterated his belief in the virtues of the chemical indua-try and announced, cryptically, that the Central Committee had decided to convene a plenum at some unspecified date to deal with this subject. Finally, he rebutted an opinion concerning the machine building industry expressed by Kozlov in February.* The Kozlov, speaking in Leningrad on 26 February, had called for the investment of "huge Rands" in the construction of new machine building enterprises. Khrushchev said that such new enterpriseu should, of course, continue to be built but that it is "considerably more profitable" t iinvest in new evuipment so as to facilitate a transfer to two-shift work in existii,g enterprises. He claimed that the latter procedure would bring twice the return per ruble of investment. - 17 - C-O-N-F4-1-D-E-N-T-I?A-L Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 C-O-N-P-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L speech as a whole, while not of the character which could be fairly described as typical of Khrushchev in all its substance, nevertheless appeared in the main to be another sign of resurgence. 20. This at least partial return to Khrushehevi.an economics was confirmed on 4 June when Pravda announced that the Premier had made a number of proposals concerning "basic principles and approaches for drafting the economic plan for 1964-65 and following years." Khrushchev stressed tb' need for a "fundamental revision" in planning and said that the chemical industry should be the chief beneficiary of such a revision. Consumers' goods, agricul- ture, and industry (in that order) would benefit in turn. Pravda noted that the Council of Ministers meeting which heard these proposals was also attended by a variety of representatives from the party, the union republics, and top central economic organs, but made no reference to anyone present from the Supreme National Economic Council. 2].. The announcement in late April that Castro had accepted the Soviet Premier's personal inv.tation to visit the USSR seemed to be yet another sign of Khrushchev'a political comeback and, in this context, Castro's subsequent Soviet tour almost certainly proved to be a great boon. Castro's implicit endorsement of the 18 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in' Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L Soviet position in the Sino-Soviet dispute, his specific sanction of the USShOs Cuban policy, and his high praise of Khrushchov personally all s?rued to buttress Ihrushchev's prestige. If nothing else, Castro provided Khrushchev v-ith an opportunity to demonstrate his status as N'ttmber One and to appear before the public in a favorable light. Moreover, it must have occurred to Soviet party members that Castro would scarely have returned to Havana and responded to Khrushchev with such notable enthusiasm if he had had ary serious doubts about Khrushchev's political future. 22. A Khrushchevi,,'. comeback could also be seen in events associated with the then forthcoming Central Committee Plenum on ideology. Initially scheduled for late May, it was announced on 14 May that this meeting had been postponed to mid-June. (For reasons which remain obscure, the decision was alleged to have been made on 3 May, one day after the official announcement of Kozlov's illness.) More importaniv, this decision was accompanied by signs that the party's at.?ident campaign against recalcitrant writers had been considerably toned down and that the subject matter to be considered by the plenum had been greatly broadened. Publicity preceding the meeting addressed itself to such topics as the - 19 - 25X1 C-O-1V-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L eclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 education of the "new Communist man", the moral and political decline of the capitalist West, and the need for ideology to spur Increases in labor, productivity. 23. In any event, the great cultural crackdown feared by the writers in March now seems le-a likely. Kozlov's illness may have been partly responsible for this; the liberal writers believe that he had been the champion of "Stalinist" authors and was largely responsible for the harsh campaign against non-conformity. What- ever the reasons, Ilichev, in his speech to the plenum (which, among other things, was highly laudatory of Khrushchev) assured hia listeners that there world be no return to Stalinist methods in the struggle against literary "rubbish." Despite continuing emphasis on the impermissability of "ideological coexistence" with the West and the probability that some further measures will be taken to strengthen the party's influence and control over the writers, cultural policy now seems to be returning partially to the more traditional Khrushchev approach; hands off the intellectu- als insofar as possible, partly because the liberals at times serve Khrushchev's political purposes, partly because Khrushchev would ordinarily prefer to avoid the storms created both at home and abroad by direct moves against the liberals. C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I A-L classified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 24. A great many urxesolved foreign and domestic issues still confront the Soviet leadership. The debate with the Chinese is approaching a climax; problems in and with Eastern Europe are growing; and foreign policy as a whole seems to be in a state of relative immobility. At home, the question of resource allocation is still probably the subject of some debate, and no doubt will continue to be for some time to come. Certain doctrinal issues with strong political overtones still seem to be subject to some controversy. The question of "economics vs. politics", for example, has been revived along Khrushchevian lines, but in a somewhat confused and contentious manner. And, in the area of cultural policy and the proper approach to the era of Stalin, uncertainty and disagreement is no doubt widespread. But in most of these fields, Khrushchev is once again setting the dominant tone and providing the party with guidelines for action which are consistent with his traditional methods and policies. Eurther, as would seem to be demonstrated by the recent naming of Brezhnev and Podgorny to the secretariat, he appears to :ie in firm control of party personnel appointments. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 C-O-N-1-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L 25. Throturh precisely what means Khrushchev was able to reassert his r'ominance after a period of great difficulty may never be known to us. It appears on the surface, however, that the disappearance of Kozlov from the political scene was of crucial importance; in retrospect at least, Khrushchev's resurgence seems to date in the main from the time of Kozlov's last public appearance. And this must be taken together with a variety of signs (some of which, not specifically alluded to in this paper, go back a numberof years) indicating that Kozlov disagreed with his boss on a number of important issues. 26. During February and March, Khrushchev was, at a minimum, fighting a rearguard action to save his political and economic programs. Whether he was also involved in a struggle for his political life is not at all clear. His colleagues, with the possible exception of Kozlov, would probably be quite reluctant to extend policy disputes into the area of Khrushchev's personal position in the party and government. Khrushchev, after all, has had years in which to extend his reins of authority and to establish his image as the indispensible leader. In any evrent, however, Khrushchev's ability to come back after a series of policy failures and after a period of probably great political tension, even if in 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6 part the result of good luck (Kozlov's illn?as), is certainly testimony to the man's skill in coping with resistance. 27. It would now appear to be less likely than ever that Khruahchev will be &ej?loualy challenged by any of his colleagues in the foreseeable future; even the Chinese, who for some time have entertained hopes of Khrushchev'a removal, now seem to have given up on the idea and to be addressing themselves to the errors of the Soviet party as a whole. Thus the next crisis in the Sova.et leadership may come only after Khrushchev's death. But the implications of this most recent crisis strongly suggest that the struggle for power among his heirs will be a fierce one which will not necessarily be won by the advocates of Khrushchevian policies. - 23 - C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/16: CIA-RDP85T00875R002000200016-6