NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 2 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010030-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: March 2, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Suriname
Japan:
: New Civilian Government . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nakasone in Trouble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Poland:
Concern About Resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Morocco-Algeria: Summit Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Turkey: Strait Transit Fees To Drop . . . . . . . . . . .
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The new cabinet announced on Monday by Army Commander Bouterse
is likely to make the government more radical. (S)
Members of Prime Minister Alibux's Progressive
Workers' and Farmers' Union, a small leftist party of
socialist intellectuals, dominate the cabinet and occupy
most of the technical ministries. Two members of the
pro-Cuban Revolutionary People's Party received the
politically important ministries that oversee education
and popular mobilization. Only one of the 12 appointees
is from the military.
Comment: Bouterse apparently hopes to create an
impression of responsible government by installing a
predominantly civilian cabinet that includes a labor
leader, but he will continue to have final approval
of government policies. Bouterse has no political
program of his own, however, and lacks a broad base of
support. He probably will be swept along with the leftist-
nationalist proposals that are likely to emanate from
the cabinet.
With Alibux's party controlling the technical posts,
economic policies are likely to be socialist. Many
observers expect banks and insurance companies to be
nationalized soon.
The Revolutionary People's Party probably will
concentrate on indoctrinating the population through
local organizations and the educational system. Bouterse
already has appointed several party members to the steer-
ing board of the university to change its conservative
outlook.
The omission of Foreign Minister Naarendorp and
former Ambassador to The Hague Herrenberg from the
cabinet list seems to narrow the field of Bouterse's
personal advisers to Cuban Ambassador Cardenas. Alibux's
assumption of the Foreign Affairs portfolio suggests
that Naarendorp was replaced at the last minute, possibly
at his own request. Herrenberg, however, probably was
dropped from consideration following his unauthorized
decision to close down Suriname's Embassy and Consulate
in the Netherlands.
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Prime Minister Nakasone's bold approach to foreign affairs
and defense issues is causing him political difficulties at home.
The opposition parties in recent weeks have been
attacking Nakasone in the Diet for his decisions to share
defense technology with the US and to support a greater
Japanese defense role. Proceedings in the Diet have
stalled several times, and negotiations are under way to
end the latest impasse.
The media have published numerous articles on what
they represent as evidence of Japan's entanglement in
US military strategy. Public opinion polls show a sub-
stantial drop in popular support for the cabinet, with
many respondents expressing concern that the Prime MinF_
ter is involving Japan too deeply in military affairs.
Members of the Liberal Democratic Party are joining
in criticizing the Prime Minister's provocative statements
on defense. Party members are particularly concerned
about the effect on their prospects in coming local and
national elections. As a result, Nakasone has promised
to put less emphasis on controversial defense and for-
eign policy issues and to concentrate on more popular
domestic concerns, including economic recovery, a tax cut,
and fiscal reform.
Comment: Nakasone's political troubles are partly
the result of his response to US concerns on defense. He
has made clear that he will not reverse decisions al-
ready made, but in the face of growing opposition he is
unlikely to urge other initiatives. Decisions on imple-
menting his agreement to transfer military technology
to the US probably will be delayed.
Nakasone's major goal for now will be to get pro-
ceedings in the Diet back to normal and to pass the
annual budget by early next week. He is likely to focus
on improving his party's standing before local elections
in April and to drop any plans for calling early elec-
tions for the lower house.
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POLAND: Concern About Resistance
Concern) )about increased antigov- 25X1
ernment activity may help push the regime into taking harsher meas-
Meanwhile, the party's cultural department announced
on Saturday that the writers' union would be purged of all
but officially sanctioned authors before being revived.
Premier Jaruzelski in a speech on Saturday also warned
that educators will be subject to "administrative measures"
if they use their positions to advocate anti-Communism.
Comment: Resistance activity was low in January,
largely because activists were still recovering from
defeats late last year and were evaluating the possibili-
ties for renewed action with the easing of martial law
restrictions. The increase in February indicates that
Solidarity supporters can cause trouble for the regime
but cannot seriously threaten its control. Such activi-
ties are likely to aid party hardliners and the security
services during the debate on policy options.
Most Poles will view the hard line against intellec-
tuals as additional evidence that the authorities are not
interested in reaching an accommodation. Jaruzelski's
tough statement probably also is intended to strengthen
his position at the next Central Committee plenum that
is scheduled to debate ideological questions.
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MOROCCO-ALGERIA: Summit Meeting
King Hassan and President Bendjedid discussed
normalizing relations when they met at the border
last Saturday. Diplomatic ties were cut in 1976 over
the Western Sahara conflict. A senior official of the
Moroccan Foreign Ministry says that the two leaders
agreed to increase economic ties gradually as a first
step toward possible reestablishment of diplomatic re-
lations. They largely passed over the controversies
Saharan problem by referring it to a lower level.
Comment: Both leaders would like to resolve the
conflict. Each has come to recognize that regional
stability serves his country's long-term economic and
political interests and that such stability is threat-
ened by the Saharan dispute and the machinations of
Libyan leader Qadhafi. In addition, Algeria probably
believes that efforts to improve ties with Morocco will
help foster better relations with the US. The strongly
held and incompatible views of the two sides on the Sa-
haran issue, however, will continue to constrain im-
provement in bilateral relations.
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GREECE: Coup Rumors
An announcement by the Greek Government yesterday
that 15 senior military officers are being retired--
combined with the unexpected alert by military and police
units in Athens on Sunday--has stirred coup rumors. The
government says its decision to retire the officers while
retaining the current armed forces chiefs stems from its
annual officer review. Press reports describe the offi-
cers being retired as disgruntled, rightwing conspirators
assigned to Army units in the north.
Comment: The alert on Sunday suggests that the
government may have believed a coup attempt was imminent.
It is not yet clear, however, whether the alert and the
retirements are related. In any case, Prime Minister
Papandreou's retention of the armed forces chiefs will
strengthen his relations with the military leadership at
a time when public concern about coup rumors suggests that
the government and the military need to present a united
front.
TURKEY: Strait Transit Fees To Drop
An official of the Central Bank says that Turkey
soon will lower substantially the high fees established
in November for merchant ships passing through the Bos-
porus. A government official confirms that a new fee
schedule is to be published within a few days.
Comment: These statements tend to substantiate
recent press reports that Turkey will bow to growing
diplomatic pressure from many of the signatories of the
Montreux Convention and ease the tenfold increase in
A significantly lower fee schedule would be likely to
reduce tension to a point where the USSR would resume
paying for ship transits and would negotiate a settlement
with Turkey for the ships that previously passed through
without paying. Ankara probably now believes that its
right to obtain adequate compensation for its services
has been recognized, thus helping it to forestall new
calls for revision of the Convention.
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