NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 21 APRIL 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010184-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 184
• Publication Date: April 21, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Argentina-UK: Diplomatic Efforts Continue . . . . . . . . 1
NATO: Problems for Rapid Deployment Force . . . . . . . . 5
West Germany: Chancellor Addresses Party Congress . . . . 6
OAU : Growing Disarray . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Cyprus: Kyprianou To Seek Reelection . . . . . . . . . . 9
Malaysia: National Elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Special Analysis
Argentina-UK: Political Maneuvering . . . . . . . . . . . 11
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ARGENTINA-UK: Diplomatic Efforts Continue
//Prime Minister Thatcher is sending Foreign Secretary Pym to
Washington with counterproposals to the latest Argentine position.
//Thatcher yesterday was skeptical about the new
Argentine proposals, particularly with respect to self-
determination for the islands' residents. She also re-
affirmed that the UK would use any means at its disposal
to secure the withdrawal of Argentine forces before dis-
cussing "long-term solutions." At the same time, however,
she said that the Argentine proposals are "a stage in the
negotiating process" and announced that Pym would go to
Washington tomorrow to make a counteroffer.//
Comment: //Pym's trip is designed to show the
Thatcher government's good faith in seeking a peaceful
settlement. Both Pym and Thatcher, however, will have
to balance their willingness to negotiate with a vigorous
defense of British rights in order to ensure solid parlia-
mentary support.//
//While in Washington, Pym will adhere closely to
Security Council Resolution 502 and may reaffirm British
willingness to work out a "multinational" arrangement for
administering the islands, perhaps even a UN role. He is
certain, however, to reject any presumption of Argentine
sovereignty.//
//London now probably would not be willing to go
beyond allowing Argentina certain commercial, communica-
tions, and transportation rights pending a negotiated
settlement. Pym also is likely to reaffirm strongly that
the islands' residents need to have a major voice in
determining their future.//
//Although there probably is little hope in London
that Argentine leaders will accept the British counter-
offer as written, a positive signal from Buenos Aires
would keep London involved in the diplomatic dialogue.
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the blockade, or sinking an Argentine ship.//
tary action, such as retaking South Georgia, expanding
Without such a sign, the Thatcher government might decide
to make no further diplomatic efforts before taking mili-
OAS Meeting
are to meet on Monday.
Argentina's proposal for a meeting of OAS foreign
ministers to vote on invoking the Rio Treaty received
backing today from 18 of 21 members. The US, Colombia,
and Trinidad and Tobago abstained. The foreign ministers
members would be reluctant to approve military steps.//
Comment: //The vote was expected to go in Argentina's
favor but is only the first step in invoking the treaty.
Argentina will have to muster 14 of 21 votes to take
any concerted action against the UK, which could range
from censure to military support for Buenos Aires. Most
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NATO: Problems for Rapid Deployment Force
//Portugal and Spain are hindering US efforts to obtain NATO
agreement to facilitate transit of the Rapid Deployment Force.//
//Portugal's representatives to NATO's Defense Review
Committee have rejected a proposal to include facilitating
the RDF as one of its Alliance force goals. The Portuguese
believe that this issue should be handled in bilateral
negotiations with the US and argue that including it in
NATO defense planning would illegally extend the Alliance's
authority. Lisbon also believes that plans to configure
its bases expressly for non-NATO contingencies would in-
volve a qualitative change in its defense relations with
the US.//
//Spain, which expects to join NATO this summer, is
also reluctant to make advance commitments to facilitate
RDF deployment. The Spaniards insist that each such use
of Spanish bases must have Madrid's prior and express
authorization.//
//Portugal and Spain are currently negotiating long-
term security and assistance agreements with the US.
Both governments have explicitly linked their willingness
to expand their transit capabilities and to cooperate in
RDF contingency planning with the amount of military and
economic aid they receive from Washington. Lisbon and
Madrid are dissatisfied with US aid offers.//
Comment: //The Portuguese know the importance of
their facilities for the RDF and probably will be increas-
ingly tough in negotiations--especially because Lisbon
believes that Spain's planned entry into NATO threatens
its own status in the Alliance. The Spaniards have con-
sistently restricted the use of their facilities, and
they probably will remain reluctant to expand transit
privileges for non-NATO purposes.//
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WEST GERMANY: Chancellor Addresses Party Congress
//Chancellor Schmidt yesterday warned the Social Democratic
Party congress against reversing its support for NATO's INF decision
or adopting any resolution that would impose a moratorium on site
preparations or INF deplouments for the duration of the Geneva arms
//Schmidt claimed considerable credit for West
Germany in bringing about the Geneva talks and argued
that a moratorium resolution would remove incentives for
the Soviets to negotiate seriously, thereby reducing
chances of achieving the "zero option." He reminded the
delegates that his government received a popular mandate
in the national election in October 1980 partly because
of its support for the NATO decision. He received strong
applause for a statement criticizing those who want to
change party policy without giving the Geneva talks a
chance to work.//
//US Embassy officers concluded at the plenary session
yesterday that INF opponents had not worked out a strategy
to counter the leadership's policies. For example, Erhard
Eppler, Schmidt's most ardent critic on INF, spoke largely
about the economy rather than defense issues and tried
to sound loyal to the Chancellor.//
Comment: //The delegates probably will accept the
leadership's draft resolution on security issues and
reject--although possibly only by a small margin--a
moratorium resolution. Schmidt's comments to the congress,
however, raise questions about how he would resnonrl if a
moratorium resolution were passed.//
//The Chancellor stated that "the party congress knows
what fundamental importance I attach to this matter," an
implied reference to and reiteration of his past threats
to resign if the party reverses its support for the NATO
decision. At the same time, Schmidt seemed to leave open
the possibility he would not be guided by a moratorium
resolution by quoting Party Chairman Brandt, who in 1960
said that even a Social Democratic chancellor ha. to have
sufficient freedom of decision.//
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OAU: Growing Disarray
African problems.
The probable failure of meetings in Nairobi this week to ease
the Western Sahara and Chad disputes reflects the increasing poZit-
icaZ divisions in the OATI and --its decline as a forum for mediating
None of the major participants in either conflict
has been invited, and most of those attending the confer-
ences are sympathetic to the Polisario. The participants
will concentrate on the problem of Polisario membership
in the OAU and the threat of a walkout by Morocco and
other moderate states at the or anization's summit in
Tripoli in August.
The seating of a Polisario delegation resulted in
the premature end of an OAU meeting last February. The
same issue disrupted two subsequent OAU ministerial ses-
begins in August, and he is likely to try to use the
organization to advance his own foreign policy aims.
Comment: Failure to resolve the Polisario problem
increases the likelihood of an open split in the OAU
between radicals and moderates. A walkout by moderates
probably would not destroy the organization, but a polar-
ized or radical-dominated OAU would be even less capable
of dealing with regional trouble spots such as Chad.
Libyan leader Qadhafi's one-year term as OAU chairman
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CYPRUS: Kyprianou To Seek Reelection
President Kyprianou, whose five-year term expires
next February, has announced his candidacy for reelec-
tion. The Communist Party, one of the two largest
parties in the Cypriot legislature, has agreed to coop-
erate with Kyprianou and his center-right Democratic
Party on a program that supports intercommunal talks,
Cypriot nonalignment, and a mixed economy. As a prelude
to the election campaign, Kyprianou has replaced all but
three of his top ministers in the cabinet.
Comment: The Communists probably believe Kyprianou
is the best candidate to keep the conservative right out
of power. Both parties would have preferred a broader
coalition, and the lack of support thus far from other
parties is likely to increase Kyprianou's dependence on
the Communists. Kyprianou probably included some members
sympathetic to Communist views in his new cabinet. He
will face his toughest opposition from Glafcos derides,
leader of the conservative Democratic Rally Party, who
could attract voters alarmed by Kyprianou's alliance
with the Communists.
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the elections tomorrow.
Top Secret
Prime Minister Mahathir's government is expected
to maintain its commanding parliamentary majority in
valued at over $100 million.//
Comment: //The mandate will mean that Malaysia
will continue to challenge US commodity policies, espe-
cially recent US sales of stockpiled tin. Mahathir appre-
ciates the value of Malaysia's security relationship with
the US, however, and he wants to prevent the tin issue
from affecting other aspects of bilateral ties. His
government recently decided to buy F-5 fighter aircraft
USSR-CHINA: Trade Protocol Signed
$300 million.
The first sentence of the note in the DaiZy yester-
day should have read as follows: Soviet diplomats in
Beijing report that, under the agreement signed last
week, bilateral trade between the USSR and China will
increase this year by about 20 percent--to approximately
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ARGENTINA-UK: Political Maneuvering
supportive of Argentina.
//As the British fleet approaches the Falkland Islands, more
governments are supporting Argentina, and Buenos Aires believes
that this growing support will force the UK to reconsider taking
forceful action. In the event of hostilities, however, London's
EC partners probably would still back the Thatcher government, and
the UK would expect strong US support. London and Buenos fires
probably will be tempted to test each other's resolve.//
//The imposition of economic sanctions, the progress
of the British fleet, and establishment of the exclusion
zone are causing some countries gradually to become more
Argentina's camp.
Falklands might bring much of the Third World into
//A British blockade or the seizure of South Georgia
would accelerate these trends, and an assault on the
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UK Prospects
//Hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough, EC foreign
ministers reaffirmed their solidarity with the UK at an
informal meeting in Brussels yesterday. Initiation of
hostilities by London, however, would put its EC partners
--continued
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in a difficult position, and some members would have
second thoughts about their support for the Thatcher
government. They probably would continue their support
and grudgingly extend the import ban against Argentina
for a short additional period, but they would privately
urge Thatcher to seek a peaceful solution.//
//Most EC members are uncomfortable with their 30-day
ban on imports from Argentina.
//EC members have justified the Argentine import ban
on the basis of "clear-cut" aggression by Buenos Aires,
but they would have difficulty maintaining this position
if the Thatcher government takes military action. They
are concerned that an outbreak of hostilities could
strain their political relations with Latin American and
other nonaligned nations.//
//Such concerns would be outweighed in the short term,
however, by compelling political counterarguments. The
failure to back London at least tacitly and to extend
the import ban would aggravate the already considerable
anti-EC sentiment in the UK. It would also ensure
British intransigence on community budget and farm
policies.//
//The UK expects strong public backing from the US
if peace efforts fail. London probably would consider
a response less forceful than the EC import ban as
encouraging to the Argentines. Both the Thatcher govern-
ment and its critics would compare US support to British
positions on Iran and Afghanistan. London probably expects
to retain some backing from Third World members of the
Commonwealth to forestall establishment of a bloc in
the nonaligned movement that would oppose it.//
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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