NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 15 APRIL 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010162-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 162
• Publication Date: May 15, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Cable)
CPAS N/JC 82- 8C
15 April 82
402
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UK-Argentina: Continued Maneuvering . . . . . . . . . . . 1
El Salvador: Political Discussions Continue . . . . . . . 5
USSR: KiriZenko's Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
UK-Canada: Transferring the Constitution . . . . . . . . 9
India-France: Purchase of Mirage 2000s . . . . . . . . . 11
USSR: KGB Appointment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Eastern Europe: Crop Prospects for 1982 . . . . . . . . . 12
China: Foreign Policy Appointment . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Lebanon: New Clashes in West Beirut . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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continued ferrying troops and supplies to the Falklands.
UK-ARGENTINA: Continued. Maneuvering
//Prime Minister Thatcher told Parliament yesterday that she
still saw a glimmer of hope for a peaceful solution in the UK's dis-
pute with Argentina, but vowed to use force if negotiations fail.
She also announced additional military preparations. The Argentines
//Prime Minister Thatcher told Parliament yesterday
that some diplomatic progress has been made, but said that
negotiations are complex and did not disclose any details.
She indicated that Secretary of State Haig's impending
trip to Buenos Aires will be crucial.//
//Thatcher reiterated London's determination not to
enter negotiations until Argentina withdraws its forces
from the Falklands and British administration is re-
established. She also reaffirmed the decision to use
force if necessary and announced that additional men and
equipment are being added to the task force. Thatcher
noted that if Argentina challenges the maritime exclusion
zone, London will assume that Buenos Aires has ruled out
a peaceful settlement.//
//Social Democratic spokesman Owen and Labor Party
leaders Foot and Healey pledged support for the govern-
ment's handling of the crisis. Healey criticized the US,
however, for not showing more support for the UK and
said that enough US pressure would force Argentina to
back off.//
Comment: //Thatcher's statements are designed to
underscore her willingness to follow through militarily
and to negotiate without surrendering basic positions.
She may rely on the complexity of the negotiating process
to buy time to reinforce British military strength. Thus
far, Thatcher and those close to her have not publicly
criticized US support, but comments like Healey's are
becoming increasingly common, especially in the back
benches.//
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British Military Moves
//The British are expanding the number of vessels
earmarked to support the task force. A Defense Ministry
spokesman said yesterday that the 12,000-ton assault
ship Intrepid would be recommissioned and join its sister
ship Fearless, which sailed last week with 1,000 marines
aboard. He stated that the additional forces are in-
tended to signal to Argentina that the UK is prepared for
//Press reports also indicate that yesterday the
Navy chartered an additional cargo vessel and four
trawlers. One large container vessel reportedly was
chartered to ferry additional xarrier aircraft to the
South Atlantic.//
Comment: //The trawlers could be converted in a short
time for minesweeping duties. The use of a container ship
as a launch and recovery platform for Harrier aircraft
will allow the British to almost double the size of their
Harrier force.//
//A week or more may be required to deploy these ad-
ditional support vessels and allow them to join up with
the task force. This suggests that the major portion of
the force will spend some time regrouping at Ascension
Island before departing for the Falklands.//
Argentine Military Activity
Unconfirmed press reports indicate that the Argentine
The Argentine Coast
uar announced yesterday that two of its boats broke
the blockade and arrived in P nley on Tuesday to
patrol the islands.
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Buenos Aires is also continuing its buildup of
ground forces on the Falklands. Press sources quoting
government officials say that up to 100 flights daily--
involving both military and civilian aircraft-
ferrying troops and equipment to the islands.
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The impasse over the formation of a provisional government
apparently has Zed the two major rightist parties to consider a new
//Leaders from the National Republican Alliance and
the National Conciliation Party, during recent separate
meetings with US officials, reiterated their opposition
to allowing the Christian Democrats to have a leading
role in the interim executive. They did not rule out,
however, a hierarchy composed of an independent president
and three vice presidents--one of whom presumably could
be a Christian Democrat.//
//In an earlier discussion with US officials, Defense
Minister Garcia reportedly indicated there is growing
concern in the armed forces over the deadlock and
expressed some support for an independent president.
Although continuing to prohibit the participation of the
armed forces in a provisional government, Garcia claims
that a strong military candidate would win a national
election. Like the Christian Democrats, Garcia advocates
an election next year, while the rightist parties remain
opposed to any national vote before 1984.//
Comment: //The smaller National Conciliation Party,
which increasingly appears to be the more intransigent
of the two rightist groups, hopes to protect its position
as power broker in the formation of a provisional govern-
ment. The tough rightist stand against a major Christian
Democratic role in the interim executive underscores the
traditional "no compromise" attitude within the political
system.//
Garcia is concerned that the impasse will erode the
morale and unity of the armed forces and reduce the
ability of the military to fight the insurgents. He
realizes, however, that the successful election has in-
creased his domestic stature, and he may believe that he
could win a national election if it were held next year.
His continuing prohibition of military participation in
an interim government is therefore designed to protect
his preeminence in the armed forces and to nurture his
own political ambitions.
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Reports continue to be received that yartu Central Committee
Secretary Kirilenko is seriously M.
A Soviet Embassy officer in Belgrade told US Embassy
officers on Tuesday that Kirilenko has been bedridden
for at least six weeks. He implied that Kirilenko would
not resume his former duties even if he should survive.
Comment: Illness does not entirely account for
Kirilenko's political problems, which were already appar-
ent at the time of party Secretary Suslov's death in late
January. Kirilenko was active during this period and
gave two speeches in February. Illness could explain
his subsequent absence from public view, however, and
could have made it easier for President Brezhnev's
favorite protege, Konstantin Chernenko, to secure his
new position as Second Secretary.
If Kirilenko has become incapacitated, he probably
will be removed from office at a Central Committee
plenary meeting, which may take place next month. His
departure would leave only three senior secretaries in
place and would necessitate personnel changes. Two well-
qualified candidates for Kirilenko's economic portfolio
are Ukranian First Secretary and Politburo member
Shcherbitskiy and party Secretary Dolgikh.
The departure of another senior leader probably
would have major consequences for Soviet decisionmaking.
Suslov's death has already produced policy adjustments,
and the departure of Kirilenko would create uncertainty
in the debate over a wide array of foreign and domestic
policies.
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river from Ottawa.//
UK-CANADA: Transferring the Constitution
//The celebration of the transferral of the Constitution from
the UK will be marred by demonstrations by Quebec separatists against
visiting Queen Elizabeth and by public concern about the economy.//
//The Queen is to arrive in Ottawa today to grant
Canada legal control over its Constitution, which London
had retained since Canada was founded in 1867. The sepa-
ratist Quebec government was the lone holdout on the con-
stitutional compromise that Prime Minister Trudeau reached
with the other provinces last November, and Premier
Levesque will not attend the celebrations. Levesque has
organized peaceful demonstrations in Montreal, and others
may be held in the Quebec city of Hull just across the
Comment: //The termination of Canada's legal subor-
dination to the UK was achieved with great difficulty
because of the provinces' concern about loss of their
prerogatives, but the change will make little immediate
difference in Canadian life. The new charter of indi-
vidual rights included in the Constitution will still
have to be tested in the courts.//
//The publicity that the government has organized
to promote the new Constitution is unlikely to distract
attention from high unemployment, inflation, and interest
rates. Trudeau has repeatedly said that he will step
down before the next election, which would normally be
held by early 1984.//
//The festivities will embarrass and provoke the
Quebec government. Levesque has few opportunities left
to oppose the Constitution, which he views as a betrayal
of Quebec by Trudeau and the other provinces.//
//A Quebec court last week ruled against the prov-
inces' challenge to the Constitution, and the Supreme
Court is likely to do the same. The resulting frustra-
tion could spur Quebec's firebrands to violence during
the planned demonstrations.//
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INDIA-FRANCE: Purchase of Mirage 2000s
better credit terms.//
//India has signed a $3 billion contract for the pur-
chase of 40 Mirage 2000 fighters. The aircraft, the
first of which is scheduled for delivery by the end of
1984, will be equipped with advanced electronics systems
and the latest French air-to-air missile. India report-
edly also has the option to manufacture under license
up to 110 additional Mirage 2000s. The USSR had sought
to block the French deal by offering India advanced
interceptors and fighter-bombers at lower prices and on
Comment: //India's decision probably was influenced
in part by the fact that the Mirage 2000 has more
advanced technology than the aircraft offered by the
Soviets and thus would be more effective against the
F-16s that Pakistan is obtaining from the US. Prime
Minister Gandhi also may want to demonstrate that India
is not solely dependent on the USSR for arms.//
USSR: KGB Appointment
The Soviet military newspaper has listed Viktor
Chebrikov as a new First Deputy Chairman of the KGB.
Chebrikov was one of several deputy chairmen and his
promotion gives the KGB two first deputy chairmen.
Georgiy Tsinev was raised to this position in February
to fill the vacancy created by the death of Semyon
Tsvigun. Both of the new appointees have close career
ties to President Brezhnev.
Comment: The KGB has not had two first deputies
for over a decade, and it is not clear why a second KGB
first deputy was named. Brezhnev may want to strengthen
his control over the security forces at the top level
because he thinks a challenge is developing there, or
simply as a precaution as the turnover in the senior
leadership appears to be accelerating. Alternatively,
KGB chief Andropov evidently is a candidate for promotes
to the Secretariat and may need to be replaced soon.
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EASTERN EUROPE: Crop Prospects for 1982
of total grain production in Eastern Europe.//
cover through late February probably prevented any major
winter damage. Winter grains generally account for half
//With normal weather, the winter grain harvest in
Eastern Europe could approach the record for 1978 of
nearly 52 million tons. The area sown with winter grains
last fall was larger than in recent years, and good snow-
this year.
Comment: It is still too early to make a reliable
estimate of regional grain output for 1982, because
spring grains are only now being planted and yields will
depend on weather conditions. Food supply problems in
Poland and Romania make this crop season unusually
important. Either country would have difficulty buying
enough from traditional Western suppliers to compensate
for a poor harvest, and, after three consecutive bad
harvests, Moscow would be hard pressed to assist them
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CHINA: Foreign Policy Appointment
The appointment of Qiao Shi as the director of the
Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Depart-
ment suggests that Beijing's recent activism in promoting
ties with other Communist parties and leftist political
movements will continue. A specialist in Third World
affairs, Qiao has been deputy director of the department,
where he has promoted China's relations with selected
East European and Asian Communist parties. Under Qiao's
predecessor, the party has moved toward more vocal public
support for Third World interests as well as guided re-
newed party-to-party contacts with the French Communists
and other close Soviet allies.
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the city and threatening the airport.
were ambushed, was spreading through several sectors of
Heavy fighting erupted in West Beirut yesterday
between the Lebanese Shia Amal militia and rival Commu-
nist organizations backed by Palestinian guerrillas.
Initial reports indicated that the exchanges, which
began in southern Lebanon on Monday when two Amal officials
old cease-fire there.
Comment: The new outbreak of fighting is the latest
in a series of gunbattles between Amal and pro-Iraqi and
Communist groups who compete for recruits and support
among Lebanon's Shia population. The new round in Beirut
may reflect the determination of Amal, which supports
the central government's authority, to block leftist
plans to hold local elections in the Muslim sector next
week. The PLO, wary of Shia resentment of guerrilla
activity in southern Lebanon, usually tries to avoid
being drawn into Amal-leftist clashes, but frequently
cannot prevent radical Palestinian groups from joining
their Lebanese leftist allies against Amal. PLO leader
Yasir Arafat can be expected, however, to keep the situ-
ation in the south from threatening the fragile nine-month-
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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