TALKING POINTS FOR ADDI PRESENTATION TO HPSCI, 7 OCTOBER 1986 SOVIET NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENTS SINCE THE CHERNOBYL' ACCIDENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000100290001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 7, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

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Talking Points for ADDI
Presentation to HPSCI, 7 October 1986
Soviet Nuclear Power Developments Since
The Chernobyl' Accident
Progress At Chernobyl'
Five months after the nuclear accident that destroyed unit 4
and forced the shutdown of the other three reactors, the Soviets
are beginning to restore the power generating capacity of the
facility.
- They claim the unit 1 reactor was restarted on 2
September,
Moscow claims unit 2 will be restarted within two weeks
and unit 3 in the second quarter of 1987.
The entombment of the destroyed unit 4 is progressing
rapidly. The concrete and steel sarcophagus is nearly
complete, and work has begun on the massive girders that
will support the hermetically sealed roof.
The Soviets have moved much more rapidly than we thought
practical to restore power production and entomb the destroyed
reactor at Chernobyl'.
- Moscow was probably driven largely by the international
furor over the accident. Soviet failure to warn
immediately of the event and of its potential danger gave
General Secretary Gorbachev a black eye he was anxious to
rectify.
- In addition, the loss of electric power generating
capacity facing the economy this winter threatened his
economic revitalization program and could raise domestic
consumption of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal).
The USSR's actions to contain the damage and to restore at
least part of the lost production capacity illustrate the
regime's ability to marshal whatever resources are necessary to
cope quickly with a single problem or event. The Soviets have
committed an estimated 80,000 military and civilian personnel to
the effort at one time or another over the past five months, and
have spent over 2 billion rubles--roughly equal to the USSR's
annual investment in the nuclear power program.
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I I
Safety Modifications
The Soviets probably have completed initial modifications of
their Chernobyl'-type reactors.
- Special railcars to carry the additional nuclear fuel
needed for the modifications have been seen at some of the
facilities.
- In our view, the modifications will enhance safety, but
the risk of operator error coupled with an unforgiving
design remains.
Status of Other Reactors
the Chernobyl' nuclear accident has not led to prolonged
shutdowns of the remaining nuclear plants in the USSR and Eastern
Europe.
- Of the 11 other Soviet RBMK or Chernobyl' type reactors,
nine were operating when last seen. 25X1
- Of the 34 Soviet VVER's or pressurized water reactors, 28
were operational when last seen. Four of the non-
operational reactors were at stations with other operating
reactors.
- The two VVER reactors at the Soviet Armenian station have
not been in operation since early June and work is in
process to uncover piping in the reactor area. Problems
at this site probably are not related to the accident at
Chernobyl'.
Construction of additional nuclear reactors in the USSR,
Eastern Europe, and Cuba is continuing although significantly
behind plan.
one RBMK reactor and three
VVER reactors are nearing completion and undergoing
testing in the USSR. Two VVER's seen in final testing in
Eastern Europe have become operational in September
according to press reports.
- Progress is also continuing on two Soviet supplied VVER
reactors in Cuba, but the first reactor won't be complete
until at least 1989 or 1990. Both reactors are to be
housed in containment structures, and we are monitoring
the construction progress closely to identify any
potential problems which could affect the US or Latin
America.
25X1
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Impact on Electricity Supply
Restoring the 1,000-megawatt capacity of unit 1 and the
subsequent restart of unit 2 will only partially alleviate the
tight power supply facing the USSR as winter approaches. Even
under normal circumstances, the Soviet power system has little
reserve generating capacity relative to peak winter demand.
- The power supply in the Ukraine will still be down about 5
percent and, for the country as a whole, nearly one
percent from levels expected before the Chernobyl'
accident.
- The Soviet press has complained that delays in
commissioning new nuclear facilities and low water levels
in many rivers were contributing to shortfalls in
electricity output.
- The Soviets have indicated that the drain of manpower and
other resources for recovery of units 1 and 2 at
Chernobyl' has delayed startup of one power reactor
elsewhere in the Ukraine and may have contributed to
delays on three others.
Impact on Agriculture
We continue to believe the effect of the accident on Soviet
agricultural production will be limited. The area contaminated
and the consequent loss of crops is largely restricted to about
1,000 square kilometers, implying a radius of 18 kilometers, and
a few outlying pockets.
- Over half of the contaminated area consists of forested
and swamp areas. Thus farm land taken out of production
represents a miniscule portion of the USSR's 230 million
hectares of arable land.
Soviet authorities continue to monitor food products in
the Ukraine, Belorussia, the Baltic Republics, and parts
of the RSFSR for radioactive contamination and report that
levels generally are safe for human consumption. (At the
IAEA meetings on the accident, Soviet speakers, when
asked, replied with specifics that indicated Soviet
standards are roughly the same as "international"
standards.)
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Soviet First Deputy Minister of Public Health stated last
month that, after having checked several hundred thousand people,
medical officials are certain that no new cases of radiation
sickness will be found. Medical technicians in the Ukraine and
in Belorussia are continuing to monitor the population.
Fact Sheet
Soviet & East European Nuclear Power Program
? The installed nuclear capacity of the USSR prior to
Chernobyl' was approximately 28,300 megawatts.
? The installed nuclear capacity of Eastern Europe is 6600
megawatts in VVER 440 type reactors, and 600 megawatts in
a US supplied reactor in Yugoslavia.
? In 1985 the Soviets produced 167 billion kilowatt hours of
electricity from nuclear energy, about 11 percent of total
electricity output.
? In 1985 Eastern Europe produced 26.2 billion kilowatt
hours of electricity from their nuclear plants.
? Prior to Chernobyl' plans called for both the USSR and
Eastern Europe to about double their installed nuclear
power capacity by 1990.
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