DOVISH SOVIET STANCE ON AFGHANISTAN CALLED PLOY TO WEAKEN REBELS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302320077-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 4, 2012
• Sequence Number: 77
• Publication Date: January 20, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/04: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302320077-1 STAT
ARTICLE APPEARED WASHINGTON TIMES
ZO January I98b
Dovish Soviet stance
on Afghanistan called
ploy to weaken rebels
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
U.S. officials regard Soviet peace feelers on
a settlement in Afghanistan as a ploy aimed
at undermining international support for Af-
ghan resistance fighters, according to the
Pentagon's top expert on anti-communist in-
surgencies. ?
Elie D. Krakowski, a special assistant to
Assistant Defense Secretary Richard Perle,
called recent Soviet overtures an "exercise in
deception:'
"The message is that [the Soviets] are as
determined as ever to destroy and subjugate
the resistance:' Mr. Krakowski told a Heritage
Foundation audience last week.
Mr. Krakowski said more than one-third of
Afghanistan's population has been killed or
forced into exile as part of a Soviet policy of
"migratory genocide." His observations are at
odds with those who argue that the Soviet
Union is bogged down in the 6-year-old war in
Afghanistan.
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev last
month said he hoped "essential progress" on
regional issues can be achieved this year in
what some observers interpreted as a soften-
ing of Moscow's position on withdrawing an
estimated 115,000 Soviet troops stationed in
the country since the 1979 invasion.
United Nations-sponsored "proximity"
talks between the Afghan regime and Paki-
stan are expected to resume next month in
Geneva.
The United States, though not a party to the
negotiations, supports a coalition of seven Af-
ghan resistance groups operating inside
Afghanistan and along the border with Paki-
stan.
Congress recently agreed to provide $4
million in humanitarian aid to Afghan ref-
ugees, and covert U.S. weapons support is ex-
pected to reach $250 million thisyear, accord-
mg to intelligence sources. Some reports
estimate the figure asligh as $450 million.
Last month the State Department sent a
letter to the United Nations outlining the con-
ditions under which the United States would
support a negotiated settlement of the
Afghanistan war, according to a State Depart-
ment official.
The official, who asked not to be identified,
said the letter indicated the United States
would guarantee "non-interference" in
Afghanistan that would, in effect, end U.S.
military support for the Afghan resistance ?
but only if a Soviet troop withdrawal takes
place first.
"If a Soviet withdrawal takes place, then
there isn't a need for the resistance," the offi-
cial said.
Actually, the resistance antedates the So-
viet occupation. It sprang up after the pro-
communist coup by Nur Mohammed Taraki
ousted the Afghan government led by Sardar
Mohammed Daoud.
The Soviets have been attempting to per-
suade Pakistan to recognize the Soviet-
installed regime in Kabul by holding out the
promise of a Soviet troop withdrawal plan
reportedly in the possession of the Afghan
foreign minister, Mr. Krakowski said.
"Should Soviet pressures for direct Paki-
stani negotiations with the puppet [Babrak] I
Karmal regime succeed ? the price de-
manded for allowing the Pakistanis to see and
discuss the withdrawal timetable ? Moscow
would have achieved the legitimacy that re-
gime cannot otherwise attain:' Mr. Krakowski
said.
Without the support of Soviet military
forces, the current Afghan regime would col-
lapse "within hours" of a Soviet troop with-
drawal, he said.
Mr. Krakowski said the Soviet peace offen-
sive has been limited to official public
statements that have not been repeated in dis-
cussions between U.S. and Soviet officials
during talks on regional issues.
The official said recent reports that the
United States would consider backing off its
support for the resistance in the context of a
Soviet troop withdrawal had undercut the mo-
rale of the seven resistence groups operating
in Afghanistan and along the Pakistan-
Afghani border region.
As a result of the reports, resistance forces
are worried about a lack of U.S. support, the
official said.
"The problem with talking about a settle-
ment is that we are undermining confidence
in the United States," the official said.
Officially, U.S. support for an Afghan politi-
cal settlement "depends on the acceptability
of a total package, which must include a total
withdrawal of Soviet forces within a fixed and
reasonable length of time," a State Depart-
ment spokesman said.
Regarding support for the Afghan freedom
fighters, "as long as the Soviets continue to
pursue a military option, we will continue to
support the Afghan struggle for freedom:.
State Department spokesman Deborah Cavin
said.
Mr. Krakowski said the Soviet peace offen-
sive in the West has not been matched by a
decrease in Soviet military activities in
Afghanistan or a decrease in diplomatic pres-
sure on Pakistan.
"The opposite has been true," Mr. Krakow-
ski said. "There has been a marked increase
in Soviet arms shipments to Afghanistan in
recent weeks and weapons don't come alone:'
Intelligence sources said U.S. SPY satellites
have detected an increase in Soviet weapons
deliveries-including shipments of Mi-24 Hind
helicopter gunships, and indications that the
goviets have begun modernizing air bases in-
side the country
In addition to weapons, intelligence
sources scdd the Soviets have stepped up spe-
sial operittion!? Using paramilitary "Spets-
naz" forcbs to carry out assassinations of
mujahideen leaders throughout the country.
Administration officials say the Afghan re-
sistance also has been receiving more ship-
ments of higher quality armaments in the
past year, including new Swiss-designed Oer-
likon anti-aircraft guns. The 20mm gun was
described as similar to a mobile cannon used
by the Swiss Army.
"Last year was a good year; this one will be
better ? with more weapons coming in," one
official said.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/04: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302320077-1