EXCEPTIONAL INTELLIGENCE ANALYST PROGRAM RECOMMENDATION - DR. H. LYMAN MILLER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89-01147R000100090051-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2011
• Sequence Number: 51
• Publication Date: September 2, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optionol)
F
EXTENSION
NO.
FBIS-1012/86
Director, Foreign Broadcast
DATE
2 Se tember 1986
TO: (Officer dssignotion, room number, and
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DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number ?och comment -o show from whom
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RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
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~?Deputy Director for
Science and Technology j
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Staff
4? Budget Staff
5.
6.
7.
8.
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10.
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~ ~' Director, FBIS
1013 Key Building
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13.
14.
15.
FORM 61 0 usE -REVIOUS
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P^MINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL U~'' ONLY
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ADbIINISTRATIVE INTERNAL USE ON.
FBIS-1012/86
2 SEP 1986
b1H~lORNNDUhi FOR: Intelligence Community Staf f
A7Ei~1 ION
VIA:
FROI~i:
Program and Budget Staff
Deputy Director for Science and Technology
Director, Foreign Broadcast Information Service
SUB.IEC1': Exceptional Inte ram
Recommendation -
1. I recommend for the Exceptional Analyst
Program. During his career with FBIS, has been an outstanding
analyst of China and of Sino-Soviet and Sino-American affairs. tie is
widely recognized in the Intelligence Community and academia as an
authority in these fields as well as in the methodology of media
analysis. his strong linguistic capabilities enable him to do research
in origii-al sources in (:hinese, .iapanese, Russian and other languages.
2. the topic as chosen for his project will draw on his
various talents and experience in order to address a crucial issue facing
the communist countries. this issue--how a communist system can
reconcile the demands of modernization with the constraints of political
control of intellectual activity--is already a live one in China as that
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ADi~1INIS1'RA'1'IVE liiT~dAL USE 01`.
country wrestles with its ambitious modernization program. It also
promises to arise in acute form in the Soviet Union as the Gorbachev
regime pursues the reform agenda it is now formulating. I can think of
no one as qualified as to address this basic issue.
3. I expect that
work on this issue will have great
value in the Intelligence Community (and, I might add, make an important
contribution to the broader foreign affairs and academic world). I
therefore urge you to approve his application for the Exceptional Analyst
Program.
Attachments:
A. Personal History
B. Professional Career
C. FBIS Career Plans for Applicant
D. Proposed Program
Deputy Director or Science an 1'ec ology Date
AI~1iNISTkH1~1VE IN1'EFtIVAL USE OiJLY
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(D) PROPOSED PROGRAM
Summary
I propose a two-year project to examine the difficulties communist
parties have in controlling fields of intellectual activity that
are critical to success of modernization. Increasingly, states
committed to Marxist-Leninist ideologies are unable to harmonize
the premises of their political doctrines with conclusions from
the modern natural and social sciences that are antithetical to
Marxism but which they must nevertheless promote to compete in the
modern world. Ultimately, these regimes face the critical dilemma
of having to choose between loosening long-imposed bonds on
intellectual activity at the expense of political control, or, for
the sake of maintaining political control, constraining the
development of modern science and technology necessary for their
competitive position and security in the modern world. Either of
these alternatives has lasting consequences. Understanding the
nature of the dilemma is therefore of major importance to the
Intelligence Community.
For a concrete example of this dilemma, the project will focus on
the efforts to reform China's communist system promoted by Deng
Xiaoping since the late 1970's. I will investigate the efforts of
the Chinese Communist Party to define a boundary between tolerated
intellectual diversity and forbidden ideological deviation so that
it can establish modern disciplines of natural and social science
inquiry as a necessary part of modernization, on one hand, and
preserve the intellectual validity of Marxism-Leninism as the
regime's legitimating political ideology, on the other.
Because the dilemma is systemic in nature, all communist regimes
face the potentially revolutionary challenges it presents in one
degree or another. Accordingly, the project will explore parallel
experiences in other communist countries, and especially in the
Soviet Union.
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Proposal
I propose to spend two years, from April 1987 to March 1989,
examining the course of intellectual reform in the natural and
social sciences in China as an example of the dilemma of
intellectual modernization facing the communist world in general.
The project will trace the evolution of China's burgeoning
intellectual establishment, analyze the dynamics and limits of
intellectual reform and its impact on China's Marxist political
ideology, and evaluate the significance of all these issues for
China's policy making processes.
This examination will draw on the flood of Chinese technical and
scholarly publications that have become available openly since
1978, on discussions with authorities in the Intelligence
Community and in academe who have studied particular aspects of
intellectual reform in China in recent years, and, to the extent
possible, on interviews with Chinese natural and social scientists
themselves.
By way of comparison, the project will examine parallel issues as
they have emerged in the USSR and Eastern Europe. The Soviet
experience is particularly rich for comparative purposes, both
because of the USSR's longer history and more advanced
development, and because the Soviets are themselves beginning to
discuss new reforms of their own system. This part of the project
will draw on primary Soviet publications, on the expertise of
academic and Community authorities in this country, on the small
body of pathbreaking secondary literature on the subject, and as
far as possible, on interviews with Soviet natural and social
scientists in the USSR.
The project will culminate in a book-length report, a shorter
precis of the book's analysis and conclusions, and a
methodological key to help understand future episodes of political
debate on intellectual reform in China and other communist
countries. I believe that all of these will prove of value to the
Intelligence Community in seeking to understand the dynamics and
implications of the oscillating periods of "freezing" and "thaw"
in intellectual activity both in China and elsewhere in the
communist world.
The Problem
Though virtually all intellectual disciplines have traditionally
been ideologically sensitive in communist countries, the
implications of the natural and social sciences have been
notoriously acute. This is because these disciplines govern
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knowledge and ideas that are integrally part and parcel of
successful modernization and at the same time present inherent
challenges to the intellectual tenets and assumptions of
Marxism-Leninism. Because Marxism-Leninism as the "science" of
human affairs claims to be consistent with the sciences, leaders
and party theoreticians in the communist countries have sought to
accommodate the tenets and findings of the modern sciences in at
least three ways:
o by distorting those aspects of the modern sciences that
conflict with or raise questions about Marxism's premises;
o by modifying the tenets of Marxism itself; or
o by ignoring or obscuring the contradictions between the
two.
There has been ample evidence of all three types of behavior in
China's scholarly, technical, and theoretical journals in recent
years. The recurring political debates over seemingly obscure
academic issues in China underscore the difficulties that the
reformers associated with Deng Xiaoping have had in promoting
broader and deeper intellectual inquiry in these modern
disciplines without undermining the legitimacy of the regime's
political doctrines.
There have been, for example, heated debates over the need to move
beyond the 19th and early 20th century framework of Marx, Engels
and Lenin and establish a new "Marxism-Leninism with Chinese
characteristics." These debates reflect, in part, efforts by the
PRC's party theoreticians to assimilate 20th century natural and
social scientific ideas--ranging from relativity and quantum
mechanics in physics to genetics and sociobiology in the life
sciences to Keynesian economics to the humanistic existentialism
of Sartre.
At the same time, there has also been an evident readiness to
disavow the findings of scientists in the West in some areas.
Some journal articles, for example, have gone to particular
lengths to raise questions about experimental results that support
the probablistic Copenhagen school interpretations of quantum
mechanics, favoring instead deterministic "hidden variable"
interpretations that are more consistent with the determinism of
Marxism. With respect to other intellectual disciplines, like
Freudian psychology, there appears to be a schizophrenic readiness
to accept the practical utility of some theories while rejecting
their theoretical basis and implications for politics and society.
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The costs of all of these responses to the dilemma are high. The
erection of what Chinese intellectuals call "forbidden zones"
around some areas of intellectual inquiry blunts the regime's
modernization programs by crippling true research and alienating
scientists and intellectuals in critical disciplines from the
regime's goals. Conversely, liberalization of the guidelines for
intellectual inquiry opens the door to challenges to the
intellectual validity of the regime's ideology, raises questions
about the Chinese Communist Party's claim to authority, and so
enhances disaffection within the party's ranks. The consequence
of this dynamic has been that intellectual debates have frequently
become political controversies.
China's party leadership has vacillated between equally
self-defeating alternatives of intervention in intellectual
affairs to prescribe boundaries on legitimate inquiry on one hand
and reassurances of intellectual fxeedom on the other. The
notorious campaign against "spiritual pollution" of 1983-1984 and
the pronouncement of a new, lasting "hundred flowers" era earlier
this year exemplify the two extremes of this cycle.
The impact of this cycle on the program of reforms sponsored by
Deng Xiaoping has been plain. The dramatic changes in China's
economic and social life brought about by Deng's reforms obscure
an underlying pattern of twists and turns in party attitudes
toward some intellectual and social products of the reforms.
These shifts in party attitude in turn have undermined confidence
in the reforms among the party rank and file, intellectuals, and
the populace at large. If the experience of reform in other
communist countries is any guide, failure by the Chinese Communist
Party to resolve this cycle in favor of free intellectual inquiry
on behalf of national goals will ultimately doom the reforms.
This cycle of freezing and thaw in intellectual activity has taken
a discernible toll elsewhere in the communist world. Even though
the sciences have commanded heavy emphasis in the Soviet
educational system and the USSR has claimed world-class
achievements in some areas, many fields of science in the USSR lag
considerably behind the West. There are many reasons for this
lag, such as excessive bureaucratic control and intervention, an
excessive emphasis on applied over basic sciences, and the effects
of relying on reverse engineering of Western technology as a means
to modernize. One of the most important reasons, however, is that
. there are political disincentives to pursuing innovative research
in areas that are subversive to the regime's ideological doctrines.
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Approach and Results of the Project
The project will consist of four main components:
(1) A survey of the growth of China's intellectual establishment.
This would focus mainly on the Academy of Sciences and the Academy
of Social Sciences, reviewing the elaboration of the institutes
within them and assessing as far as possible their interaction
with China's party and state structures.
(2) A detailed examination of the Chinese approach to disciplines
that appear to offer conclusions potentially threatening to the
tenets of Marxism-Leninism:
? Modern sciences: quantum theory, relativity, statistical
physics, and cosmology; modern biology, including molecular
and evolutionary biology; psychology, cognitive science,
and cybernetics.
? Social sciences: economics, political science, sociology,
and anthropology (disciplines that previously were denied
existence as avenues of intellectual inquiry independent
from Marxist political economy) and the traditionally
tolerated disciplines of history and philosophy.
(3) An analysis of debates among Chinese party and academic
theoreticians on what exactly constitutes "Marxism with Chinese
characteristics" and what should be preserved from Hiarx, Engels,
Lenin, Stalin and Mao and what should be discarded as obsolete,
especially in response to the challenges of the modern natural and
social sciences.
(4) A comparative analysis of these questions in China with their
parallel treatment in the Soviet Union. Many of these same issues
have been and continue to be controversial in the USSR for many of
the same reasons. A substantial body of primary and secondary
material exists on the Soviet case for comparison. The purpose of
this comparative effort will be not only to provide insights into
the specific Chinese example but, more importantly, to serve as a
springboard to understanding the aspects of the problem that are
common to all communist countries.
The project would produce three reports:
? A booklength analysis of these problems, presenting the
conclusions and supporting evidence in detail for those in
the Community who are interested in understanding them in
depth;
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? A precis of the book-length study that will summarize its
findings and judgments for a broader readership in the
Community; and
? A methodological appendix that will provide Intelligence
Community analysts with keys to understanding the dynamics
of these critical debates and their implications for
politics and policy.
Contribution to Analytical Competence
The project will allow me both to strengthen my expertise in an
area that I have long specialized in and to extend it to areas
that I have not previously dealt with extensively--Soviet politics
and ideological affairs. In doing both of these things, the
project will significantly enhance my performance as a senior
analyst in the DDS&T, a new position allotted to FBIS Analysis
Group to encourage integrative analysis that illuminates questions
that cut across the boundaries of the individual communist
countries.
With respect to my work on China, I?have covered a broad range
foreign policy topics in my Agency career, but my specialty has
been Chinese domestic politics. With equal measures of
fascination and frustration over the years I have watched periods
of intellectual liberalization and repression alternate in China.
Significant developments, like the campaign against "spiritual
pollution" in 1983, have burst into China's leadership politics
after a long periods of gestation in China's intellectual circles.
The pressures of current analysis and reporting permitted neither
time nor latitude to do more than guess at the implications of
such controversies and sniff tentatively at which way the
political wind appeared to be blowing. This two-year project will
allow me to undertake the intensive research and synthesis
necessary to become deeply acquainted with the issues,
personalities and dynamics of these intellectual debates, so that
I will be able to anticipate them before they evolve into
political controversies and to understand the import and
implications of new controversies and their possible impact on
Chinese development, politics, and policies.
More broadly, the project will afford me the opportunity to begin
work on an important question in the political life of other
communist states, and especially in the USSR. I anticipate that
the understanding I gain from the project concerning parallel
controversies in the Soviet Union will be useful in future work on
the politics of reform and ideological change in the USSR and
Soviet relations with other communist states and parties.
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Finally, the project will allow me to bring to bear in my
professional career an expertise that has thus far remained
avocational. I spent the greater part of my college years at
Princeton working toward an eventual career in theoretical
physics. While I ultimately dropped those plans and studied
Chinese history instead, I have retained a strong interest in the
sciences, following developments in physics, geology, and biology
over the years.
Relevance to National Intelligence Needs
How the communist states struggle to modernize, how these states
respond to the pressures of competing in the modern world, and how
they adapt to what they recognize as a scientific and
technological revolution in progress in the rest of the world are
questions of paramount and enduring importance to the Intelligence
Community. This project offers specific analyses of these issues
with respect to the two largest and most powerful communist
countries and conclusions of general scope that will shed light on
these critical problems elsewhere in the communist world.
With respect to China specifically, the PRC's role in world
affairs in general and its relationship to the United States in
particular will be shaped decisively by the outcome of the reforms
underway under Deng Xiaoping's tutelage. Understanding the goals
and limits of these reforms and the political obstacles to their
implementation is relevant in both the short and long term to the
needs of U.S. policymakers and the Intelligence Community with
respect to the PRC.
These same concerns apply with even greater urgency to the USSR.
As the new Soviet leadership debates reforms of its own,
understanding the political dynamic of intellectual and scientific
reform will be criticial to estimating prospects for Soviet
success. I believe therefore that this project will contribute to
Community analysis of both countries.
Future Plans
After completing this project, I would like to return to my
present senior analyst position in FBIS. I would like to build on
the insights and conclusions drawn from this project by continuing
to work on problems that cut across the national boundaries of the
communist countries and affect the communist world generically,
while at the same time looking more deeply into intelligence
questions concerning both my traditional specialty, Chinese
domestic politics, and the contemporary Soviet Union and Eastern
Europe.
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Supervising Official
ea gua ters Bldg.
STAT
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Travel
Trip to California (Palo Alto, Berkeley, and $1250.00
Santa Monica)
Trip to Boston and New York 950.00
Computer Requirements
IBM PC Convertible portable computer, with
3.5" external diskette drive for PC and
PC Convertible battery charger (for data
collection and word-processing needs during
trips and in libraries)
Wang IBM-Emulation software package (to make
IBM diskettes compatible with Wang word-
processing equipment
Equipment
Tape recorder for interviews
Tape cassettes
Clerical
Xeroxing expenses in libraries 250.00
Supplies
Printer ribbons, computer diskettes, and paper 120.00
Books and Journals
Books and subscriptions 1800.00
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Travel
Trip to China (Beijing and Shanghai)
$6150.00
Trip to California (Palo Alto, Berkeley, and
Santa Monica)
1250.00
Trip to Boston and New York
950.00
Trip to England (London and Cambridge)
Clerical
3250.00
Xeroxing expenses in libraries
Supplies
500.00
Printer ribbons, computer diskettes and paper
Books and Journals
200.00
Travel
Books and subscriptions
FY 1989
2400.00
Trip to China (Beijing and Shanghai)
6450.00
Trip to Soviet Union (Moscow and Leningrad)
5250.00
Clerical
Xeroxing expenses in libraries
150.00
Supplies
Printer ribbons, computer diskettes, and paper
160.00
Books and Journals
Books and subscriptions
800.00
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Appendix I:
April-June 1987:
? Gather materials relevant to project from FBIS and Library
of Congress collections.
? Review classical Marxist literature on natural and social
sciences.
? Begin research on structure and evolution of Chinese Academy
of Science and Academy of Social Sciences.
? Set up next quarter visits to Harvard, MIT, Columbia,
Princeton, Stanford, Berkeley and Rand to interview scholars
working in relevant fields and gather materials from
library collections of PRC materials.
? Begin preparations for fall trip to PRC.
July-September 1987:
? Complete research on structure and evolution of institutes
and draft book chapter.
? Begin research on natural sciences sections.
? Conduct interviews and visit libraries in Boston, New York,
Palo Alto and Santa Monica.
? Complete arrangements for PRC trip.
October-December 1987:
? Conduct interviews in Beijing and Shanghai with institute
scholars; gather books and journals.
? Complete research on natural sciences and draft
chapters on this section.
January-June 1988:
? Complete research on social science issues and draft
chapters on these.
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? Set up return visits for following quarter to Boston,
New York, Palo Alto and Santa Monica.
? Make arrangements for visit to England for interviews at
University of London and Cambridge.
? Begin arrangements for fall visits to China and USSR.
July-September 1988:
? Review course of party theoretical disputes on limits of
revision of Marxist tenets and draft chapter on this.
? Begin research on Soviet experience for comparative
chapter.
? Conduct interviews in Boston, blew York, Palo Alto, Santa
Monica, London and Cambridge.
? Complete arrangements for China and USSR trips.
October-December 1988:
? Re-interview institute scholars in Beijing and Shanghai.
? Conduct interviews of Soviet scholars on parallel issues.
? Complete research for comparative chapter on Soviet
experience and draft.
January-March 1989:
? Assemble and revise drafted chapters.
? Condense precis from overall manuscript.
? Draft methodological appendix.
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Appendix II:
The project will draw heavily on the broad range of journals
published in China, especially from those under the auspices of
the Academy of Sciences and Academy of Social Sciences. Many of
the materials relevant to the project remain untranslated. FBIS
retains large holdings of many of these journals, which I will
supplement with from what I can find in collections at the Library
of Congress, Harvard University, Columbia University, the Hoover
Institution, and Berkeley and with what I can purchase directly in
China.
There are, in addition, a number of secondary books and journal
articles relevant to the project that I expect to consult at
various stages. The following topical bibliography includes some
of these by way of illustration.
Classical Marxist Approaches_To the Sciences
Engels, Frederick. The Dialectics of Nature. New York: 1940.
Kolakowski, Leszek. Main Currents of Marxism. 3 vols. New York:
Oxford University Press, 1978.
Kubalkova, Vendulka, and Cruikshank, Albert. Marxism and
International Relations. New York: Oxford University Press,
1985.
Lenin, V.I. Materialism and Empirio-criticism. New York:
International Publishers, 1927.
Leonhard, Wolfgang. Three Faces of N,arxism. New York: Paragon
Books, 1979.
Lichtheim, George. Marxism., An Historical and Critical Study. New
York: Columbia University Press, 1982.
Marx, Karl, and Engels, Frederick. Selected Works. 3 vols. Moscow:
Progress Publishers, 1973.
McLellan, David. Marxism After Marx. Boston: Houghton Mifflin,
1979.
Shaw, William H. Marx's Theory of History. Stanford: Stanford
University Press, 1978.
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Tucker, Robert. Philosophy and Myth in Karl_Marx. New York:
Cambridge University Press, 1982.
Wetter, Gustav. Dialectical Materialism. London: Routledge and
Kegan Paul, 1958.
Modernization and Communist Systems
Black, Cyril. The Dynamics of Modernization. New York: Harper &
Row, 1966.
Huntington, Samuel P. Political. Order in Changing Societies. New
Haven: Yale University Press, 1968.
Johnson, Chalmers, ed. Change in Communist Systems. Stanford:
Stanford University Press, 1970.
Levy, Marion. Modernization: Latecomers and Survivors. New York:
Basic Books, 1972.
White, Stephen; Gardner, John; and Schopflin, George. Communist
Political Systems: An Introduction. New York: St. Martin's
Press, 1982.
Interpretive Issues in the Modern Sciences
Boden, Margaret. Artifical Intelligence and Natural Man.
New York: Basic Books, 1977.
Brown, Harold I. Perception, ,Theory and Commitment: The New
Philosophy of Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
1977.
Burtt. E.A. The Metaphysical Foundations of Diodern Science.
Atlantic Highlands: Humanities Press, 1952.
d'Espagnat, Bernard. In Search of Reality. New York:
Springer-Verlag, 1983.
Feynman, Richard P. The Character. of Physical Law. Cambridge: MIT
Press, 1965.
Gardner, Howard. The Mind's New Science: A History of the
Cognitive Revolution. New York: Basic Books, 1985.
Graves, John C. Conceptual Foundations of Contemporary Relativity
Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1971.
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Harre, Rom. The Philosophies of Science. New York: Oxford
University Press, 1985.
Harris, Marvin. The Rise of Anthropological Theory: A History of
Theories of Culture. New York: Thomas Crowell, 1968.
Jammer, Max. The Philosophy. of Quantum Mechanics: The
Interpretations o_f Quantum Mechanics in Historical
Perspective. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1974.
Kitcher, Philip. Vaulting Ambition: Sociobiology. and. the Quest for
Human Nature. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1985.
Kuhn, Thomas S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.
2nd edition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970.
Leplin, Jarrett. Scientific Realism. Berkeley: University of
California Press, 1984.
Nagel, Ernest. The Structure of Science. Indianapolis: Hackett,
1979.
Powers, Jonathan. Philosophy and the New Physics.New York: Methuen,
1982.
Rosenberg, Alexander. The Structure of Biological Science.
New York: Cambridge University Press, 1985.
Ruse, Michael. Darwinism Defended: A Guide to the Evolution
Controversies. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1982.
Marxism and the Natural and Social Sciences in China
Brugger, Bill, ed. Chinese Marxism in Flux. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe,
1985.
Feuerwerker, Albert, ed. History. in Communist China. Cambridge:
MIT Press, 1968.
Goldman, Merle. China's Intellectuals: Advise and Dissent.
Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981.
Hamrin, Carol and Cheek, Timothy. China's Establishment
Intellectuals. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 1985.
Needham, Joseph. Science and Civilization in China. 8 vols. to
date. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1954-1978.
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Orleans, Leo, ed. Science in Contemporary China. Stanford:
Stanford University Press, 1980.
Su, Shaozhi. Marxism in China. London: Spokesman Press, 1983.
Marxism and the Modern Sciences in the USSR
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