NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 11 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020037-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: April 11, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top-Sewet
r_s..fesl
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
11 April 1984
CPAS NID 84-085JX
11 April 1984
Copy 7 Q S
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Top Secret
Contents
Western Europe-Nicaragua: Criticism of Mining ....................... 1
Spain-Nicaragua: Support for Election ...................................... 2.
Israel-Syria: Concern Over Syrian Intentions ............................
Czechoslovakia-Hungary: Policy Differences Aired ..................
Guinea: New Leadership Charts Course ....................................
India: Implications of Unrest in Punjab ....................................... 7
USSR: Foreign Trade Improves .................................................. 8
Western Europe: Declaration on Latin America ........................ 9
USSR: The Central Committee Plenum ...................................... 9
Nigeria-Chad: Border Tensions .................................................. 11
Mozambique: Insurgent Offensive .............................................. 11 25X1
France: New Missile in Production ............................................ 12
Sri Lanka: New Round of Violence ............................................ 13
In Brief
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11 April 1984
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WESTERN EUROPE- Criticism of Mining
NICARAGUA:
European government criticism of the alleged US role in the
mining of Nicaraguan harbors is emerging slowly.
Prime Minister Thatcher yesterday condemned the mining and
confirmed her government's uneasiness about US support for the
rebels. She added that the UK does not have the resources in the
region to send minesweepers to Nicaragua.
An Italian Foreign Ministry official who is preparing a report on the
issue for Foreign Minister Andreotti implied criticism of the alleged US
role in a discussion with a US diplomat last Friday. According to the
US Embassy in Madrid, a Spanish Foreign Ministry official said
yesterday the Spanish Council of Ministers was disturbed about the
alleged US involvement and would discuss it at a regular meeting
today.
Spanish Foreign Minister Moran met with his British and French
counterparts in Luxembourg yesterday and expressed his country's
"great concern" with the mining of Nicaraguan ports, but barred any
joint action with France to send minesweepers. He added that the EC
Council of Ministers had discussed the issue and that some members,
led by French Foreign Minister Cheysson, had raised the possibility of
a joint initiative.
Comment: European misgivings center on the question of freedom of
navigation and the precedent such a violation of international law
would set. Italian and West German press reports also say that the
reported US action diminishes the difference Europeans see between
the superpowers.
The issue may cause minor political problems for some West
European governments. Italian leftist newspapers, for example, have
repeated allegations in the US press that the mines are Italian-made.
The US Embassy in Rome reports that the Communist Party may
exploit the presence of Nicaraguan rebel spokesmen in the city as
guests of the Social Democratic Party to embarrass the government
in parliament.
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SPAIN-NICARAGUA: Support for Election
Prime Minister Gonzalez may offer practical assistance to
facilitate Nicaragua's general election scheduled for
5 November, because he believes it would help create an open
political system and counter opposition in Spain to his
conservative programs.
The US Embassy reports that Spain may offer electoral administrative
assistance, if requested by Nicaragua. Government officials claim that
no formal request has been received, but Nicaraguan Junta Member
Sergio Ramirez discussed the subject during his visit to Madrid late
last month. Spanish officials are considering alternatives, including
sending a team of experts from the Socialist Party on polling,
propaganda, and campaign operations, to help prepare for the
election.
Comment: Madrid's interest is consistent with its position on Central
America. Spain has strongly supported the Contadora group and is
one of Nicaragua's largest European lenders. Gonzalez is more
suspicious about the Sandinistas than some Europeans-having
been shaken by Nicaraguan support for Basque terrorists-but he
seems to view the holding of elections as a positive step.
Gonzalez disagrees with US policy in Central America, but he has
been careful to avoid actions that would result in direct conflict with
Washington. Recently, however, a high-level Spanish official
expressed concern about US involvement in mining Nicaraguan
waters and warned that US policy in Central America could disrupt
US-Spanish cooperation on security.
In addition to his philosophical commitment to Nicaragua as a
Socialist, Gonzalez may see assistance for the Nicaraguan election as
a way to appease Spanish leftists who oppose his domestic economic
austerity program and his policy of keeping Spain in NATO.
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ISRAEL-SYRIA: Concern Over Syrian Intentions
Israeli Defense Ministry officials have told the US defense
attache they discount recent Israeli newspaper accounts that
Syria is increasing its forces in the Bekaa Valley.
The officials claim that Syrian troop levels there have actually
decreased. They speculate the recent increase in Palestinian attacks
along the cease-fire line may have resulted from Syrian distraction
with internal affairs and the move south of PLO units from Tripoli. The
Israeli Army, meanwhile, conducted a partial mobilization drill
yesterday, its second since the nationwide exercise last November.
Comment: The Israelis are concerned about the situation in
Damascus and the possibility that President Assad will provoke an
incident to turn the attention of Syria's armed forces away from the
internal conflict. Israel will continue to retaliate against Palestinian
targets for attacks along the cease-fire line, but it probably will avoid
Syrian positions in order not to give Assad a pretext for raising
If Palestinian attacks from Syrian-controlled territory increase,
however, Tel Aviv is likely as a last resort to authorize selective strikes
on Syrian targets in Lebanon. Although the mobilization exercises are
not directly related to the press accounts of Syrian preparations, they
reflect a determination to ensure that Israel will be ready for any
eventuality.
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Top Secret
CZECHOSLOVAKIA- Policy Differences Aired
HUNGARY:
A recent Czechoslovak press attack on Hungary for its
"independent" policies probably reflects Prague's belief that
the new Soviet leadership will favor greater orthodoxy in the
foreign and domestic policies of the Warsaw Pact states. F I 25X1
A senior Czechoslovak foreign policy official writing in the party
newspaper late last month criticized Budapest, although not by
name. He charged Hungary with attempting to develop a special
foreign policy role for itself as a mediator between the superpowers
and with following policies toward the West that differ from the line
agreed upon in joint Warsaw Pact meetings. 25X1
Prague is particularly unhappy
that the Hungarians allegedly broke a Warsaw Pact agreement to 25X1
curtail relations with NATO countries that accepted INF
deployment. 25X1
The article also attacked the Hungarians for seeking unilateral
advantages from Western countries, institutions, and banks. It
described this approach as encouraging differentiation by Western
countries and says it threatens "socialist" unity.
Hungarian party Secretary Szuros, who has been closely
associated with Budapest's more activist foreign policy, defended
the Hungarian position in a press interview last week. He argued
that Budapest's more open policy toward the West not only
conforms with actions of other members of the Pact, but serves the
interests of the Pact as a whole.
Comment: The attack by the conservative Czechoslovak
leadership reflects its longstanding disapproval of Hungary's
innovative foreign and domestic policies. Prague's decision to
publicize its views suggests that it believes its lobbying for more
orthodox policies will be well received in Moscow and may
influence the Soviet position at impending Warsaw Pact summit
meetings.
Although Prague may be criticizing Budapest at Moscow's
instigation, Hungary's public defense of its position makes this less
likely. Nevertheless, the Hungarians probably will go slowly in
taking initiatives while attempting to build support in Moscow. F
25X1
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GUINEA: . New Leadership Charts Course
The new regime is winning public backing at home and foreign
diplomatic support, as it seeks badly needed economic aid.
Guinea's new leaders say their priorities are to introduce civil liberties
and rebuild what they term the "devastated" economy. They have
promised a free press, unfettered labor unions, and open trials of
former officials charged with administrative or economic abuses.
According to the US Embassy in Conakry, the regime is appealing for
food, fuel, and other aid from the US and France.
President Conte has told the press that his government will remain in
power until tribalism, regionalism, and sectarianism are eliminated.
Conte, 49, is a Sousou tribesman and has served in the Army for 29
years. Unlike younger, largely Soviet-trained Guinean officers, he was
schooled by the French in Ivory Coast and Senegal.
The government has been endorsed by neighboring moderate states.
The new regime says it will support changing the location of the next
OAU summit, scheduled for Conakry, if the majority of OAU states
prefer.
Comment: The government's characterization of the economy is apt.
The regime intends to work to provide the essential needs of the
population, but encouraging a large influx of exiles will add to the
economic pressures.
The pragmatic and pro-Western leaders will need large amounts of
aid to reverse two decades of deterioration. Without such aid, the
Soviets and Libyans may be able to develop new influence. Moscow,
however, is unlikely to offer significant amounts of economic
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7-4
W. hAnistan
PaKist'an
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INDIA: Implications of Unrest in Punjab
Prime Minister Gandhi's inability to control terrorism by Sikhs in
the Punjab hel s her political o onents and threatens relations
with Pakistan. 7 25X1
The stalemate in negotiations between Sikh leaders and New Delhi
has increased the prominence of more militant Sikhs who are
challenging government authority. Press accounts state that nearly 30
people were killed this past week bringing the total to over 130 dead
and more than 500 injured since the fighting broke out six weeks ago.
The violence has spread into the neighboring state of Haryana 25X1
The US Embassy in New Delhi reports Gandhi has taken increasingly
forceful measures to halt the unrest. She has extended federal
government rule in the Punjab for another six months, has sent
additional paramilitary forces, and has given them extraordinary
search, arrest, and detention powers. Gandhi also has banned the
leading Sikh student organization. 25X1
The Prime Minister has shown some willingness to discuss Sikh
requests for special religious privileges. She has, however, refused to
consider the Sikhs' demands for increased political autonomy or
control of territories and waters shared with adjacent states for fear
of setting a precedent.
Comment: The turmoil in the Punjab is undercutting Gandhi's claim
that she can effectively maintain law and order. She is trying to avoid
measures that would further alienate Sikh leaders, reduce the
chances of a negotiated settlement, or lead to more violence.
The unrest threatens to worsen India's ties with Pakistan. Gandhi
claims Pakistan is contributing to unrest in the Punjab in order to
work against her government and to damage her election prospects.
She has not, however, adduced persuasive evidence to support her
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Soviet Foreign Trade Billion US $
Total
Communist
Eastern Europe
Other
Non-Communist
Developed West
Less Developed
Countries
Exports
Imports
Balance
87.2
77.8
9.4
47.1
42.5
4.6
36.3
33.6
2.7
10.8
8.9
1.9
40.0
35.3
4.7
26.0
26.1
-0.1
14.0
9.2
4.8
Exports
Imports
Balance
91.6
80.4
11.2
50.9
45.5
5.4
39.4
37.2
2.2
11.5
8.3
3.2
40.7
35.0
5.7
26.5
25.3
1.2
14.2,
9.7
4.5
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USSR: Foreign Trade Improves
Recently published Soviet data indicate that the USSR improved
its foreign trade position last year. 25X1
Moscow reduced its assistance to the East European nations by
cutting its trade surplus with them. Nonetheless, the Soviets' trade
surplus with Communist countries as a group increased slightly. 7_1 25X1
A decline in imports from the developed Western countries allowed
Moscow to increase its trade surplus with non-Communist countries,
despite the slow growth of Soviet exports. Soviet purchases of grain
and other agricultural products fell as a result of improved' harvests in
1982 and 1983. Most of the reduction was in imports from the US. F_~ 25X1
The USSR was able to increase export earnings from non-Communist
countries for the second year in a row, despite a drop in world oil
prices. The Soviets raised oil exports to the West by 150,000 barrels a
day to about 1.7 million barrels, primarily by reexporting oil they
Military exports to the less developed countries, which rose
substantially early in the year, dropped during the last quarter.
Comment: Arms sales are second only to oil as a hard currency
earner, but may have declined for the year as a result of the drop in
the last quarter.
Oil sales are likely to level off and could decline, if domestic
production continues to slump. The USSR already has had trouble
this year in meeting its obligations for oil deliveries to Western Europe
and could have difficulty increasing hard currency earnings.
Nevertheless, Moscow's overall hard currency position is likely to
show another surplus this year, if it continues to hold down imports
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Top Secret
The presidents of the Socialist, Liberal, and Christian Democratic
Internationals yesterday issued a joint declaration on Latin America
that generally agrees with US viewpoints. On El Salvador, the
presidents expressed support for an open and constructive dialogue
among all democratic forces after the presidential election there. The
declaration welcomes Nicaragua's decision to hold an election but
indirectly urges the Sandinistas to eliminate the state of emergency
and to ensure a free and honest contest. The internationals also offer
support for the Contadora peace negotiations and condemn the
continuing violation of human rights in Chile.
Comment: Differences among the party internationals prevent the
declaration from providing a firm indication of what each group might
do in coming months. The decision to issue a joint statement was
intended partially to help centrist Salvadoran presidential candidate
Duarte in the run off election against rightwing candidate
D'Aubuisson.
General Secretary Chernenko, in his speech to the Central Committee
yesterday, said that present policies were good ones and only needed
to be properly carried out. He said that the bureaucracy must be
reduced, and he hinted that the next party congress might be
convened sooner than 1986. Secretary Zimyanin'reported on an
educational reform bill that will be introduced to the Supreme Soviet
today. The plenum also approved unspecified personnel matters and
other business to be raised at the Supreme Soviet.
Comment: Chernenko probably lacks the power to push for high-level
personnel changes without more time to prepare the way. His purpose
in calling an early congress would be to preside over the selection of a
new Central Committee and place his stamp on policy, but other
leaders might oppose such a plan. The Supreme Soviet is likely to
elect a chairman of the Presidium today, and it has to approve a
premier and members of the Council of Ministers. All signs still
suggest Chernenko will be elected head of state and Tikhonov will
remain as premier.
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Central African
Republic
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25X1
Lagos claims Nigeria's land border is officially open for shipments of
food and fuel through Cameroon to Chad. Nonetheless,
some trucks destined for N'Djamena have not
been permitted to cross, while others face long delays and
harassment by customs officials. Lagos repeatedly has rebuffed
President Habre's calls for face-to-face meetings to resolve the
problem.
Comment: Nigeria's military believes the civilian government failed to
support it during border clashes last year. The military could be
planning an action to reclaim several disputed islands in order to
reestablish its credibility. Any such action by the armed forces,
however successful, would only temporarily deflect popular attention
from pressing domestic economic and political problems. Moreover,
new hostilities would destroy what little opportunity Lagos has to
become a mediator between France, Libya, and various Chadian
factions.
MOZAMBIQUE: Insurgent Offensive
The Mozambican National Resistance has cut power supplies to
Maputo during the past week and attacked commercial traffic on the
previously secure main road from Maputo to South Africa.
the insurgents destroyed 200 meters of
the Beira- u are pipe ine in central Mozambique and prevented the
government from repairing the damage.
the group is launching an offensive against the capital
to demonstrate that. it retains the strength to force President Machel
to negotiate. Press reports state that the government has launched a
counteroffensive in the Maputo area
Comment: The guerrilla offensive presumably is intended to offset
the public boost the Machel regime has received as the result of the
nonaggression agreement. If the offensive continues, it could cast
doubt on the agreement and erode Machel's domestic political
backing. The insurgents probably have enough weapons and supplies
to sustain a high level of action until late in the year.
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FRANCE: New Missile in Production
the M-4 SLBM, France's first ballistic
missile with multiple warheads, is in full series production, and the
first missiles are being delivered to the Navy. the
submarine Gymnote has completed testing of-the M-4, which has a
range of 4,600 kilometers, after a total of six launches. The new
ballistic missile submarine L'Inflexible is scheduled to begin sea trials
in late 1984, and the first launch of an M-4
from L'Inflexible should take place in early 1985.
Comment: The M-4 initially will be deployed on L'Inflexible and later
on four of the' five La Redoutable SSBNs, which will be modified for
the M-4. Current plans call for conversion of operational SSBNs to
accommodate the M-4 during their scheduled overhaul periods. With
the deployment of the M-4, which carries six reentry vehicles, the total
number of possible SLBM warheads in the French force will increase
from 64 to about 500 by the early 1990s.
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Pa/k
Bay
Bay
of
Bengal
Indian Ocean 50
Kilometers
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Palk Riot"
Strait J ffna
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New ethnic violence broke out this week in the northern provincial
capital, resulting in more than 30 people killed or wounded before
security forces were able to restore order. The US Embassy in
Colombo reports that Tamil insurgents attacked a Sri Lankan Army
convoy and that the Army retaliated, burning shops and killing four
Tamil civilians. Tamil militants also attacked a Sinhalese Buddhist
temple and a Sinhala-language school. The government has declared
an 18-hour curfew throughout the province.
Comment: The new violence is the worst since the ethnic riots of last
summer. Colombo has moved quickly to limit the new violence in the
north and to forestall a Sinhalese retaliation in the south. Punitive
action by the Army, however, will heighten Tamil resentment against
government security forces, which increasingly are viewed as an army
of occupation in Tamil areas.
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In Brief
may endanger $780 million in pending bank loans.
- New Chilean Finance Minister in US to confer with IMF and
possibly seek new loans ... hopes to persuade IMF to support
economic policy aimed at reducing domestic discontent ... failure
East Asia - Japanese farming cooperatives and opposition parties have
denounced US-Japan farm accord ... calling for special session of
Diet ... LDP committees in Diet endorse accord but may support
measures to protect against farm losses.
public profile as government tries to regroup.
Ringleader of coup attempt last week in Cameroon reportedly
under arrest ... casualties and destruction in Yaoude may be
greater, than initially reported ... President Biya maintaining low
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