SOUTHWEST ASIA OPIUM PRODUCTION: 1984 UPDATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00315R000300060001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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~_ ~ m~ Intelligence
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Yyc`l:i is ~i),"r'~ C!. s
Southwest Asia
Opium Production:
1984 Update
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GI 84-10l 97
November 1984
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Southwest Asia
Opium Production:
1984 Update
Branch, OGI
This paper was prepared by analysts in the
Strategic Narcotics Branch, Office of Global Issues,
with contributions from the Analytic Support
Group. Comments and queries are welcome and may
be directed to the Chief, Strate is Narcotics
Secret
GI 84-10197
November 1984
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Secret
Summary
/ri(ormation available
as of 26 October 1984
was used in this report.
1984 Update
Southwest Asia
Opium Production:
We estimate 1984 opium production from Southwest Asia- Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and Iran-to be between 500 and 800 metric tons, enough for
the region to maintain its position as the leading supplier of heroin for the
US market. 25X1
we believe Pakistan will produce approximately 46 tons of 25X1
estimate of Iranian production
opium, about as much as last year, and Afghanistan should produce about
160 tons our Afghan estimate is below 25X1
the most recent rug n orcement ministration calculations. Our
is between 400 and 600 tons.
largest manufacturers and traffickers of Southwest Asian heroin.
Serious political, economic, and security demands on the governments of 25X1
Southwest Asia prevent implementation of the stringent narcotics control
measures that would cut opium production enough to significantly affect
heroin supplies. Dozens of heroin laboratories have been established over
the last three years along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border and, in recent
years, Pakistani traffickers have taken greater control of traflicking routes25X1
partially replacing the Italians, Turks, and Iranians who had been the
slightly and purities will rise.
In 1985 production from the area probably will increase, and heroin
exports could rise sharply-perhaps by 50 percent. Much of the increase
would result from the recent expansion in cultivation in Pakistan plus a re-
turn to normal yields. Yields fell this year because of bad weather. [f this
increase in supplies materializes, much of it will be aimed at the US
market. The US market may become saturated because of a large increase
in Mexican opium supplies this year. With exportable production from
both Mexico and Southwest Asia increasing, heroin prices may decline
Secret
GI 84-10197
,Voienth~~r 1984
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Secret
Southwest Asia
Opium Production:
1984 Update ~
Southwest Asia-Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran-
has been an important supplier of heroin to the United
States since 1979, and opium produced in the region
currently accounts for about half of the heroin im-
ported into the United States. Most of the opium is
grown illicitly in tribal areas where the governments
are unable to enforce prohibitions against cultivation.
Pakistan has attempted to reduce cultivation in those
areas where the government has control, but there is
little chance that either the Iranian Government or
the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan will attempt
to reduce production. Without controls, production
from the region will increase and the United States
may become an even more important target for
Southwest Asian heroin traffickers.
Table 1
Pakistan: Opium Crop, 1984 d
Agency
Poppy
Hectarage
Opium
Yield
Opium
Production
(hectares)
(kilograms per (metric tons)
hectare)
Total
3,300
14 (average)
46
Dir
810
18
IS
Gadoon/Amazai
---
820
- - - .
13
11
Malakand
130
12
2
Bajaur
Mohmand
430
230
12
12
5
3
a Estimated. Data for crop year for the fall of 1983 to spring of
1984.
We estimate Pakistan's 1984 opium crop at about 46
tons, approximately the same as last year's crop (table
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Figure 2
Opium-Growing Areas in Northwestern Pakistan, 1984
Afghanistan
Boundary repre entalion is
of necessarily authoritative.
,LV~r `resnawary
North
Waziristan
South
Waziristan
Areas ,
Frontie
ISMAIL
KHAN
Dera Ismail
Tribal
Area
Northern
Areas
HAZAl~ E F~