INTERAGENCY GROUP-REQUESTED PAPER ON THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS ON ANGOLA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T01142R000100210002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 5, 2011
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 26, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05: IA-RDP93T01 142R000100210002-8
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The Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Council
NIC #02240-87
26 May 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Chester A. Crocker
Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
SUBJECT: Interagency Group-Requested Paper on the Impact of
Sanctions on Angola
1. The Interagency Group on Africa, under your chairmanship, requested
through Ambassador Abramowitz that my office coordinate an interagency paper
which would examine the impacts of current and prospective additional US
economic penalties on Angola, with additional questions on European and
UNITA behavior. In discussions between Ambassador Abramowitz and Major
General Horton, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, it was agreed
that the most expeditious way to respond to this request would be in the
form of a joint CIA-INR paper coordinated by the NIO for Africa.
2. The attached paper addresses the questions posed by the Interagency
Group. It was prepared by CIA's Directorate of Intelligence and coordinated
with State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. It is being sent to you
as Chairman of the IG for use by the Interagency Group; no other
disseminations have been made. Please coordinate any dissemination to other
Interagency Group members with INR.
Frederick L. Wet ering
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
Attachment: As stated
cc: Amb. Abramowitz, Assistant Secretary
for Intelligence and Research
Mr. Anthony Dalsimer, Director, African Affairs, INR
. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05: CIA-RDP93TO1142R000100210002-8
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26 May 87
THE IMPACT OF UNITED STATES ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON ANGOLA
Summary
Historically, the impact of international economic sanctions has been
modest, and current and prospective additional US sanctions on Angola will,
in our estimation, correspond to this historical pattern. New European
loans and investment reportedly have offset the impact of US commercial
restrictions against Angola, and we have no reporting that US companies have
changed any investment decisions in Angola because of the restrictions on US
company tax exemptions. The decline in world oil prices in early 1986
reduced Luanda's ability to pay for Soviet military equipment and Cuban
troops and technicians, but we do not believe that a further decline in
Angola's ability to make hard currency payments would induce Cuba to
withdraw its forces or the Soviet Union to cease its support. The Angolan
government reportedly has been concerned with possible additional US
sanctions since US legislation prohibiting official support of the Angolan
rebels expired in late 1985, but in the event of a total US trade embargo,
Angola could shift its oil sales to Europe, South America, and possibly the
Far East and thus move quickly to regain markets at little or no discount
from prices it could obtain in the US market. Moreover, because all of
Angolan oil exports come from offshore wells, the vast bulk of Angolan
production appears to be beyond the reach of UNITA attack for the next
year.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05: CIA-RDP93TO1142R000100210002-8
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