CIA REPORT SAYS SOVIET ANTI-MISSILE SHIELD POSSIBLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91-00587R000100460008-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2011
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: June 26, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/23: CIA-RDP91-
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WASHINGTON TIMES
26 June 1985
00587R000100460008-5
CIA report says Soviet anti
-missile shield possible
ntsilluertz
V04SHINGTON TIMES
The Soviet Union's potential to
rapidly deploy a nationwide missile
defense, if carried out, could dwarf
any Soviet arms control violations to
date, according to an administration
analyst.
The warnin of the emerging
Soviet cape l itv to throw up a shield
st offensive nuclear missies
was issued in a repo rear
two officials for delivery today
be re a joint congressional panel .
"We are particularly concerned
that the Soviets' continuing develop-
ment efforts give them the potential
for widespread ABM deployment,"
the report warns. "The Soviets have
the major components for an ABM
system that could be used for wide-
spread ABM deployments well in
excess of ABM treaty limits;' it
adds.
Scheduled to testify today were
CIA Deputy Director for Intelli-
gence Robert M. Gates and CIA
Nation .ntellig_ence Officer for
Strategic Programs Lawrence K.
Gershwin.
A copy of their remarks was
obtained by The Washington Times
from administration sources.
The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile
treaty permits the United States and
Soviet Union to deploy one ABM sys-
tem in an interior location. By leav-
ing the remainder of each country
vulnerable to attack, the treaty
seeks to reduce the risk that a
nuclear exchange will occur.
Supporters of the ABM treaty are
concerned about its future in light of
U.S. and Soviet efforts to develop
defenses in space against incoming
ballistic missiles.
The Soviets set up the only exist-
ing ABM system in the late 1960s
with the "Galosh" system around
Moscow. The United States never
deployed its one permitted system.
But the United States has-
launched a research program to
determine whether a defense
against nuclear missile attack is pos-
sible. Such research is allowed
under the ABM treaty.
The research program, called the
Strategic Defense Initiative and
popularly dubbed "star wars," has
drawn fire from critics on grounds
that, if the research proves strategic
defense feasible, the defense would
be employed in violation of the ABM
treaty. The program involves a sys-
tem of weapons capable of knocking
out ballistic missiles in outer space.
The two CIA officials, in what is
expected to be rare public testimon
contend t at v t e 1990s the Soviet
Union will be able to enhance its
existing ABM system around Mos-
cow to shield key targets in the West
ernU.SS.R. In addition, the CIA
protects that Soviet ABM de enses
will be capable o exten in t e
reach of its ballistic missile a ense
to cover "ke targets" east of the
lJra mountains where a major r-
tion of Soviet strategic wee ons
bases are located.
The Soviets are modernizing the
Moscow ABM system, ABM-1, with
a program designated ABM-3. The
system includes a mobile radar des-
ignated "flat twin," a stationary
radar known as "pawn shop," and
two fixed-based missile interceptors
designated SH-04 and SH-05 for
high- and low-altitude defensive
attacks.
U.S. intelligence expects the Sovi-
ets to deploy up to 3,000 mobile ABM
interceptors by 1987. according to
the administration analyst.
The report prepared for delivery
to the Senate Armed Services Com-
mittee and Defense Appropriations
Subcommittee is entitled, "Soviet
Strategic Force Developments " It is
based on the latest national intelli-
gence estimate of Soviet power.
Mr. Gates and Mr. Gershw' are
expecte to testify about Soviet
advances in the use of laser weapons
against incoming missiles.
"We are concerned about a large
Soviet program to develop ground-
based laser weapons for terminal
defense against re-entry vehicles,"
the testimony states. Re-entry vehi-
cles are separate nuclear warheads
dispersed from ICBMs.
The CIA expects the Soviets to
test t e laser weapon "during the
1980s" but the agency does not
expect deployment until after the
year.
The CIA foresees growth of
between percent and percent
each year for the next five years in
Soviet spending on offensive and
d ensive weapons.If the Soviets
proceed with widespread ABM
deployments, weapons spending is
expected to increase 7 percent to 10
percent for the same period, the
report states.
Besides ABM components, the
Soviets have made "major strides"
in deploying mobile intercontinental
ballistic missiles. An additional 700
mobile SS-24 and SS-25 ICBMs are
expected to be activated by the end
of the decade, an administration
source said.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/23: CIA-RDP91-00587R000100460008-5