BATTELLE PROSPECTUS FOR GLOBAL AND LATIN AMERICAN FORECASTS TO 1995

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00472R000200270029-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 4, 2010
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: June 4, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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STAT
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United States Pepartment of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
June 4, 1984
MEMORANDUM -
Mr. C. Thomas Thorne - INR/AR
Mr. William Miller - INR/EC
Mr. Dean Howells - INR/PMA
Mr. John Dardis - INR/PMA
Mr. Robert Strand - INR/PMA
Mr. Robert DuBose - INR/GI
Mr. Kenneth Roberts - INR/LAR
State/INR/LAR - E. Raymond Platig
- National Intelligence Council
- Defense Intelligence Agency
- Central Intelligence Agency
- Intelligence Community Staff
- Intelligence Community Staff
STAT
SUBJECT: Battelle Prospectus for Global and Latin American
Forecasts to 1995
Those of you who attended the May 8 meeting with Steve Millett
and Gary Stacey of Battelle will recall that they suggested a
prospectus (rather than a formal proposal) as the next step. A
prospectus dated may 25, 1984, is attached. The two asteriks on
p.4 indicate other Battelle papers that I disseminated following
the May 8 meeting. If you did not receive them and think it
important to, please give me a call.
Would you be good enough to review the prosepctus and, by
Tuesday, June 26, let me have your judgment on the following
points:
1. Are the materials from Battelle sufficient for us to
suggest that they submit a formal proposal? If not, what else is
needed--a meeting of USG agency representatives to discuss the
prospectus and possible modifications (please specify); a meeting
of agency reps with Battelle; other?
2. Alternatively, do you now know enough to be convinced that
a Battelle BASICS forecasting project is not worth pursuing from
your agency's stand point?
3. If your answer to basic question #1 above is affirmative,
would your agency be able seriously to consider participating in
the funding of an acceptable proposal in FY-1984, and/or in
FY-1985?
4. Other points of importance to you.
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If in considering the above points you would find it helpful
for us to talk, please call (632-1342). In addition, or
alternatively, you may wish to discuss questions you have about
the prospectus with the proposed principal investigator, Steve
Millett (614 424-6424).
A personal observation: The Battelle prospectus suggests on
p.5 three benefits to sponsors. Since all of our agencies are
engaged in writing scenarios, making forecasts, and identifying
key trends for the purposes mentioned, it seems to me there are
additional, and perhaps for some agencies more important,
benefits of somewhat different types: (1) having an external
product based upon a unique, explicit, systematic and replicable
methodology that will confirm and/or challenge our own forecasts,
etc.; (2) having a better basis for assessing the BASICS
methodology to see if it has additional utilities in the
intelligence agencies; and (3) providing a vehicle through which
those of us involved in forecasting/planning activities can learn
from and along with one another.
INR/LAR:ERPlatig:ljp
6/5/84:x21342
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PROJECT PROSPECTUS
GLOBAL AND LATIN AMERICAN
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICO-MILITARY
CONDITIONS TO 1995
TO
DR. E. RAYMOND PLATIG
DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF LONG-RANGE
ASSESSMENTS AND RESEARCH
BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
May 25, 1984
BATTELLE
Columbus Division
505 King Avenue
Columbus, Ohio 43201
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Project Prospectus
GLOBAL AND LATIN AMERICAN
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICO-MILITARY
CONDITIONS TO 1995
to
Dr. E. Raymond Platig
Director, Office of Long-Range
Assessments and Research
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
U.S. Department of State
May 25, 1984
In its report to President Reagan of January 1984, the Kissinger
Commission on Latin America observed that "...a great power can choose what
challenges to respond to, but it cannot choose where those challenges come--
or when. Nor can it avoid the necessity of deliberate choice. Once chal-
lenged, a decision not to respond is fully as consequential as a decision
to respond...." The commission was making the point that the U.S. exists
in an international environment that poses challenges and threats to which
the U.S. must react. Perhaps the anticipation of likely challenges and
threats in the U.S. security environment might better prepare the U.S. Govern-
ment to react appropriately when and where problems emerge.
Battelle's Columbus Division (BCD) recommends to the Office of
Long-Range Assessments and Research of the U.S. Department of State, and
to its associated members of the Intelligence Community, a study that would
prepare forecasts of global and Latin American socio-economic and politico-
military conditions to 1995. Such a study would provide foresights into
likely emerging situations that might present the U.S. Government with "the
necessity of deliberate choice" in the future.
BCD's forecasting study would employ its BASICS methodology. BASICS
was developed in the 1970s as a collaborative effort of Battelle's four
principal research divisions: BCD, Battelle's Pacific Northwest Laboratories
(Richland and Seattle, Washington), Battelle-Institut e.V. (Frankurt, West
Germany), and Battelle's Geneva Research Centres (Geneva, Switzerland). It
combines the methods of idea generation (similar to, but not exactly the
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same as, the delphi method), trends analysis, cross-impact analysis, compu-.
terized simulations, and scenario generation to provide comprehensive and
integrated forecasts of business and government environments. Since the
late 1970s, BASICS has been employed in over two dozen forecasting projects,
including World Politics in the 1980's, The European Community in the 1980's,
World Trade in the 1980's, Key Technologies, and The Global Strategic Environ-
ment for U.S. Security to 2002.
BCD recommends that this forecasting study be divided into two
principal parts. The first part would be the forecasting of global socio-
economic and politico-military conditions to 1995 and the second part would
be the forecasting of Latin American socio-economic and politico-military
conditions to 1995. The former part would be completed first and the latter
would follow. Each would employ the sequential seven steps of BASICS,
which are briefly described below.
Step 1. Identification of the Topic. The tentative topic has
been stated above. Several discussions on the topic have already occurred
between Dr. S. M. Millett of BCD and Dr. E. R. Platig of the Department of
State. Further refinement of the topic would be the first task of this
recommended project.
Step 2. Identification of Influencing Factors. Having defined
the topic, one must consider and select the most important influencing factors
(trends, events, variables, or circumstances) that will shape the forecasting
topic. BCD recommends that this step be accomplished*by two conferences of
experts to be held at Columbus, Ohio, or Washington, D. C. The experts will
be selected from universities, industry, the military, and the U.S. Government.
The first conference will consist of up to 15 invited experts to discuss the
influencing factors that are most likely to mold global socio-economic and
politico-military conditions to 1995. The second conference would be of the
same size and would discuss the influencing factors for Latin America. BCD
would organize and conduct the conferences in cooperation with the sponsor,
and it would prepare and distribute a written report summarizing the conference
results. From the conferences, BCD project members and the sponsor would
glean up to 16 specific descriptors for global conditions and up to 16
descriptors for Latin America for detailed analysis. A suggested, but cer-
tainly not final, list of descriptors for global conditions appears in Table 1.
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TABLE 1. SUGGESTED DESCRIPTORS FOR GLOBAL SOCIO-
ECONOMIC AND POLITICO-MILITARY CONDITIONS
TO 1995
Worldwide GNP growth rate
OPEC price of crude oil
Price of wheat
Levels of world exports
U.S. prime interest rate
Levels of external debts in LDCs
Infant mortality rate in LDCs
Nutrition rate in LDCs
World population growth rate
Levels of multi-national wars
Levels of insurgencies and civil wars
Global Politico-military alliance networks
Worldwide military expenditures
Number of Marxist-Leninist governments
Soviet power projection
U.S. power projection
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Step 3. Descriptor Selection and Analysis. Having obtained the
inputs of-experts, specific descriptors are selected and analyzed. A short
descriptor essay is prepared that includes historical trends, data, present
status, and expected alternative outcomes. Sample descriptor essays have 4r,
already been submitted to Dr. Platig. Each descriptor has alternative out-
comes with a priori (judgmental) probabilities of occurence.
Step 4. Construction of Consistent Sets of Trends. The descriptor
essays and outcomes provide the input to the cross-impact matrix. The matrix
provides a method to assess the impact of each alternative outcome on the
a priori probabilities of all other descriptor outcomes. The cross-impact
method provides the means to build consistent sets of multiple trends to
prepare integrated scenarios of future conditions. The mechanics of the
BASICS cross-impact analysis and the computerized generation of scenarios
from it have been described in the "Report on the BASICS Computational Method
for Cross-Impact Analysis" by E. J. Honton, G. S. Stacey, and S. M. Millett
(February 2, 1984). BCD recommends two matrices for two cross-impact analyses:
one for the global conditions and one for Latin American conditions. Results
from the former can be integrated into the latter.
Step 5. Interpretation and Selection of Scenarios. The BASICS
computer program calculates all the adjusted probabilities and provides print-
outs of results. The program produces summaries of all the simulations and
organizes coincident descriptor outcomes into scenario types. These results
are examined and interpreted by the project team in cooperation with the
sponsor to select the framework for three "mainline" scenarios.
Step 6. Introduction of Disruptive Events. Battelle recommedns
that three disruptive events be identified and introduced into the analysis
to simulate how they would affect the mainline scenarios. Such disruptive
events might be Argentina's default on its foreign debts, an oil crisis, or
a specific war occuring.
Step 7. Preparation of Forecasts. The final interpretation of
computer simulations and scenarios provides the basis for forecasts of future
conditions. A final report summarizes the process, the results, and the
analyses.
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Battelle would provide the following products from this recommended
project for each of the two topics (global conditions and Latin American
conditions):
1. Prepration and conduct of one conference of experts.
2. Report on the results of the conference.
3. Up to 16 descriptor essays.
4. A completed cross-impact matrix of descriptor outcomes.
5. Copies of BASICS computer program print-outs.
6. An analytical report.
7. One interim briefing.
8. A final briefing.
The benefits of this suggested forecasting project to the sponsor
would include:
1. Scenarios and forecasts of the topics to 1995 that will
suggest certain areas of potential problems for U.S.
security.
2. Scenarios and forecasts for use as inputs to long-
range, strategic planning.
3. Identification of key trends to monitor.
The expected duration of this suggested project is 18 months. The
global conditions portion would require about 10 months and the Latin American
portion would require about 8 months. Work could commence as early as
September, 1984.
The key BCD personnel who would participate in this suggested
project are as follows:
? Dr. Gary S. Stacey - Senior Economist and Program Manager
of BASICS
? Dr. Stephen M. Millett - Principal Research Scientist and
manager of strategic forecasting projects
? Dr. Halder Fisher - Research Leader, Economics
? Mr. Edward J. Honton - Research Scientist, economist, and
computer program specialist.
Dr. Millett would serve as project manager and the principal investigator.
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The BASICS method is unique to Battelle, which is the only
institution that offers this forecasting methodology. The BASICS computer
program is the proprietary possession of Battelle.
The estimated cost of this recommended forecasting project is
$115,000-$125,000. The expected type of research contract would be cost
plus fixed fee.
This recommended project would be unclassified. A classified
version of the results could be achieved under appropriate circumstances.
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The BASICS method is unique to Battelle, which is the only
institution that offers this forecasting methodology. The BASICS computer
program is the proprietary possession of Battelle.
The estimated cost of this recor-mended forecasting project is
$115,000-$125,000. The expected type of research contract would be cost
plus fixed fee.
This recommended project would be unclassified. A classified
version of the results could be achieved under appropriate circumstances.
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